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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, May 13, 2017

Research as season ends is more for the 'flavour' of the 2 teams coming into the last 2 matches rather than anything indepth. It should still serve its purpose in the Premiership. I begin researching the Norwegian Eliteserien today despite only 7 matches played. I have left 3 matches out from Norway where there is no strong favourite or the form for either side is too similar. The more matches there are, the better and more accurate the research. There will be plenty more to come from Norway over the summer and some good trading angles.
See you for a live chat 14:30 here at delayreacttrade.com.

12:30 - Man City v Leicester - 1.29 Man City

  • 4-2 to Leicester the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 4th v 9th in the English Premiership.
  • City have a game in hand over Liverpool and 3rd place in their sights so it is advantage them in the race for 3rd.
  • Leicester's season is over and they are safe. The Great bard doth save them.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 now for Man City will be tested if Leicester still have some fight in them.
  • City are unbeaten at home since 14th December 2016.
  • They have failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • 13 scorelines at halftime at City were either 0-0 or 1-0.
  • Only Chelsea have beaten man City at home.
  • Man City have drawn with 6th, 7th and 10th though.
  • 13 of 15 goals conceded at home by Man City came 2nd half.
  • Leicester's only recent hiccups came away recently v Everton and Arsenal and that may have been Champions league distracted.
  • Only twice under the Great Bard have Leicester failed to score 2 goals, one was a 1-0 Loss to Arsenal and the other a 0-1 win away at West Brom.
  • Leicester have not beaten a top 7 side away.
  • Leicester have conceded a whopping 14 goals just before halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Leicester continue to impress but are meeting a Man City side who have 3rd place in their sights. Leicester also have to overcome the hurdle of not beating a top 9 team away from home.
  • Angles? Note City's conceding heavily 2nd half at home. City have only lost to Chelsea at home but have uncomfortable draws at home v teams around Leicester's position. I do think Man City will not lose though today.

14:30 - Augsburg v Dortmund - 1.47 Dortmund

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 13th v 3rd in the German Bundesliga.
  • 2 matches remain this season. Augsburg are in a 6 team relegation battle and must be delighted (not) to meet one of the big guns at this stage of the season.
  • Dortmund would like a top 2 berth but would need to win their 2 matches and for Leipzig to lose. I think Dortmund are more worried about the HOFF who are 2 points below them.
  • We see it in all leagues. Sudden form. 2 consecutive home wins for Augsburg gives them a shot in the arm. Only 1 loss in 4 now.
  • Only 2 clean sheets since 4th December is a big headache for Augsburg.
  • As is the fact they are yet to beat a top 4 side home or away. 2 goals at least conceded at home.
  • Dortmund have 3 defeats this year, all coming away from home.
  • They have scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • 1-1-1 scored away ended with 3 in their last away match, a win.
  • Dortmund have failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No away 0-0 for Dortmund.
  • Dortmund away form is bitty. They have lost to 11th and 12th away and play 13th today.
  • Dortmund scored and conceded in 13 away matches this season.

Conclusions

  • A match of meaning for both sides, for different reasons. Augsburg have won their last 2 at home but tend to concede 2 goals at home to top 4. Will they go with season long form today? Dortmund are certainly capable.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Augsburg are highly likely to concede today so note that if 1-0 or 0-0. Dortmund remember have failed to score only 4 times.
  • A tricky match I would say for Dortmund but on form they should be scoring 2 goals at least. But will form be upheld given needs-must?

14:30 - Freiburg v Ingolstadt - 2.48 Frei

  • 1-2 Freiburg the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 5th v 17th in the German Bundesliga.
  • 2 matches remain.
  • It's simple. If Ingolstadt do not win, they are relegated.
  • Freiburg cannot get higher than 5th.
  • That's all Ingolstadt need. A Freiburg side with 3 consecutive home wins.
  • But a side with only 6 clean sheets.
  • Freiburg a rarity - so deep into the season without a 0-0 full time.
  • Freiburg look strong at home. 10 wins and 2 defeats at home v teams below them in the league.
  • Note those v bottom 4 only 1-0 wins. In fact v 11th and lower, wins have been by a single goal.
  • 2 defeats and 2 draws for Ingolstadt recently is not good enough.
  • They failed to score in 3 of their last 4 away and kept only 3 clean sheets.
  • They have lost all bar 1 away v top 10, the exception was a 0-0.

Conclusions

  • Nothing too much for Freiburg to play for. Lay any late 0-0 and hope Freiburg continue to avoid 0-0's.
  • Freiburg are very strong at home but their wins tend to be 2-1 or 1-0 so that may give Ingolstadt hope if they can stop Freiburg from scoring that 1 goal.
  • Ingolstadt simply must win, and in doing so, break the season long pattern of generally losing to top 10.
  • I think Ingolstadt are doomed alas. But I await the in-play stats to tell me otherwise.

14:30 - Leverkusen v FC Koln - 2.06 Leverkusen

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 12th v 7th in the German Bundesliga.
  • A win should suffice for Leverkusen to stay up, albeit 41 points is the ideal. On 40 points they have an excellent goal difference over rivals.
  • Nothing much left for Koln this season.
  • 3 draws gave Leverkusen some cause for hope at home but that was followed by a defeat. Heck, this lot should be top 3!
  • Only win v Darmstadt in 11 matches is relegation form.
  • A reasonable record at home v top 8, only 2 defeats were v 2nd and 4th.
  • Leverkusen scored in all bar 2 v top 11 at home.
  • Koln have scored and conceded in 10 of their last 13 matches so should give Leverkusen a look today.
  • Only 1 win in 10 away. Koln do not travel well and Leverkusen will hope for more of the same today.
  • Koln's only away win since 26th November was against Darmstadt.

Conclusions

  • Oh dear, these 2 are not in the best of health.
  • Both teams could score today but trusting either side is tough. Leverkusen need the win and that win should confirm safety. Enough to side with this side with only 1 win in 11?

14:30 - Mainz v Frankfurt - 1.73 Mainz

  • In the recent head to heads the home team has tended to win or draw.
  • This is 15th v 11th in the German Bundesliga.
  • Must win territory for Mainz. Frankfurt have reached the hallowed 41 points of safety.
  • Despite only 1 win in 10, the market has sided with the needs of Mainz.
  • With 3 defeats in 4 home matches it is hard to be confident about them.
  • Mainz have a big block of losses at home v 8th to 12th inclusive and find life easier playing 13th and lower at home.
  • Only 1 win in 13 for Frankfurt sees them extremely lucky to remain in the Bundesliga. Living on earlier points gained.
  • 6 consecutive away defeats for Frankfurt does give Mainz hope.

Conclusions

  • 2 teams in really poor form. One needs a win, the other can sigh relief at surviving a season despite only 1 win in 13.
  • The market is with Mainz and needs-must. Are you?

14:30 - RB Leipzig v Bayern Munich - 1.94 Bayern

  • 3-0 Bayern earlier in the season. This is the top 2 in the German Bundesliga.
  • Bayern are Champions and tend to coast remaining games and are therefore vulnerable on that account.
  • Had Darmstadt scored their penalty last match, we would have got up a 1.05 lay of Bayern as they led 1-0.
  • 1 point seems enough for Leipzig to secure 2nd spot today so note that. Not a must win, but a 'would like to draw'.
  • 4 consecutive home clean sheets, 3 wins sees RB bring back earlier form.
  • Unbeaten in 7 now. All wins bar a 1-1 draw for RB v top 13 sides at home.
  • Where Dortmund beat them away, RB beat them at home. They would like to do the same with Bayern.
  • There's no point looking at Bayern's form as they are a different animal after winning the title.
  • They are likely to be vulnerable and lack that hunger to win. It just does not matter. It is at this part of the season where we see Bayern slip ups.

Conclusions

  • Bayern are not a betting proposition after winning the title. I will look for Leipzig not to lose today and as I did v Darmstadt, I will lay Bayern if Bayern lead.
  • Remember a draw is all that Leipzig need to secure 2nd spot.

14:30 - SV Darmstadt  v Hertha Berlin - 2.14 Hertha

  • 2-0 Hertha in the last head to head.
  • This is 18th v 6th in the German Bundesliga.
  • A brilliant fight from Darmstadt ended against Bayern Munich where they missed a penalty late on. Still a draw was not enough. Darmstadt are relegated.
  • The best Hertha Berlin can get is 5th. Is that enough of an incentive?
  • This is Darmstadt's last home match and last home match in the German Bundesliga. Coming off 2 wins at home.
  • 6 defeats and 2 wins at home for Hertha recently. They seem to have been coasting for a while.
  • This is not a match to dwell upon. All points bar 3 for Darmstadt this season came at home. They play a Hertha with only 2 away wins.
  • Is this being the last home match in the German Bundesliga enough to expect a solid performance from SV Darmstadt or do we do the sensible thing and focus elsewhere?

14:30 - Schalke v Hamburg - 2.12 Schalke

  • 2-1 Hamburg in the last head to head.
  • This is 10th v 16th in the German Bundesliga.
  • This is another match where Schalke have hit the mark - 41 points and safety. Hamburg, like Mainz earlier on, need 2 consecutive wins and still that does not guarantee safety.
  • Schalke are unbeaten in 6 at home but will we see a less motivated display now they are guaranteed safety?
  • Only 2 wins in 7 for Schalke were 4-1 wins.
  • Only 1 0-0 all season for Schalke.
  • Worryingly for Hamburg, Schalke have a 100% win record at home v the bottom 6 sides.
  • Schalke have only 1 draw home and away v 8th and lower.
  • 3 defeats and a 0-0 for Hamburg has to change, and sharpish if they are to survive this season. The only thing they have going for them is the fact several teams are fighting the relegation battle.
  • Only 1 win in 9 away matches for Hamburg sees 3 consecutive defeats.
  • 0-0-0-1-0 scored in recent aways. You don't need me to tell you that if you don't score, you don't win!
  • Only 2 wins away for hamburg this season were the only 2 matches that they scored more than 1 goal in.

Conclusions

  • This is another puzzle like the Mainz match. We have a home side on the magical 41 points. No worries. We have an away team who must really be winning their remaining 2 matches but the problem is they have scored only 1 in 5 away, have only 2 away wins, have scored more than 1 goal in an away match only twice and meet a Schalke who have a 100% win record v bottom 6 sides.
  • The market has nodded tentatively towards Schalke. And let's be honest. There is nothing in Hamburg's form to suggest they can extricate themselves, especially away from home.

14:30 - Werder Bremen v Hoffenheim - 2.46 Hoffenheim

  • I would love to attend this match just to say thank you to these 2 teams for filling my boots for another season.
  • Werder are the archetypal both teams to score team, oh and throw in a goal before halftime too. The Hoff are, well the Hoff but far better behaved this season.
  • This is 8th v 4th in the German Bundesliga. 5th spot is achievable for Werder, top 3 is achievable for the Hoff.
  • Both teams have scored in the last 13 head to heads and the last 2 have been 1-1.
  • 9 wins and 2 draws ended with a loss 4-3 v Koln for Werder. Brilliant latter season form.
  • 5 consecutive home wins for Werder and in 11 of 12 matches they scored 2 goals at least.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime for Werder in the last 27 matches.
  • 3 losses and a win v Leipzig for Werder v top 5 saw both teams score in the defeats.
  • Only 4 defeats for the Hoff all season. Solid stuff.
  • Hoff are on a dire run away Loss Loss Draw Draw Win, Loss, Draw Loss - all losses this season have come within those recent away matches.
  • Having failed to score in only 2 matches, Hoff have a chance of scoring today against Werder Bremen - both teams score!
  • Both teams have scored away v top 10 for the Hoff with only 1 Hoff win.

Conclusions

  • I will back 2-1/1-2 here as both teams should score. If it hits 1-1, we can trade out of both scores.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

14:30 - Wolfsburg v Mgladbach - 1.93 Wolfsburg

  • 2 consecutive 2-1 Wolfsburg wins in head to heads.
  • This is 14th v 9th in the German Bundesliga.
  • Yet another match where a team is safe from relegation but the other (Wolfsburg) is in the eye of the storm.
  • The market today has sided with Wolfsburg.
  • 4 defeats and only 2 wins in their last 6 needs to change for Wolfsburg.
  • WLWLWLWL (W=Win, L=Loss) is the current Wolfsburg pattern at home. To be fair last home match they didn't have a hope. If Bayern won, they won the title.
  • No draw in 13 at home for Wolfsburg.
  • Wolfsburg have only 2 wins at home v teams above them in the league.
  • Both teams have scored in Mgladbach's last 5 matches.
  • 2 wins in 3 aways for Mgladbach. Will they be in cruise control today with little to play for?

Conclusions

  • Messy form from both sides. The market has gone with Wolfsburg and their need for 3 points. Mgladbach have won 2 of their last 3 aways though.
  • Mgladbach do tend to allow opponents to score so note that.
  • A match in which it is tough for me to get a trading angle.

15:00 - Bournemouth v Burnley - 2.02 Bournemouth

  • 3-2 Burnley the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 11th v 14th in the premiership. Mission accomplished for the Cherries. Burnley need 2 points for survival to be guaranteed.
  • 7 points in their last 9 matches sealed Bournemouth's season. 2-2 last match.
  • Their last 2 defeats at home v Chelsea and Man City so confidence at home. Note this is Bournemouth's last home match of the season so there will be a celebratory feel and they may not be allowed to coast this one.
  • Bournemouth have conceded 2 goals at home v 12th, 13th, and 15th and play 14th today. 3-2, 2-2, 2-2 sees Desmond Tutu grace Pensioners' Paradise.
  • Burnley have now scored 2 goals in each of their last 2 matches, 0-2 away and 2-2 at home to West Brom.
  • Burnley's away form is dire though - all defeats bar a 0-0 away v top 15 teams.

Conclusions

  • Burnley draw today even could seal their survival.
  • Their away form is dire. Bournemouth's last home match and they are safe. Motivation?
  • Back 2-2 again and hope Bournemouth keep attracting Sir Desmond of Tutu to the south coast?

15:00 - Middlesbrough v Southampton - 2.08 Southampton

  • 1-0 Southampton last head to head.
  • This is 19th v 10th in the Premiership.
  • Middlesbrough are relegated. Southampton can only reach 8th place maximum.
  • A dead rubber so best avoided unless the in-play stats speak.

15:00 - Sunderland v Swansea - 1.91 Swansea

  • 3-0 Swansea in the last head to head.
  • Sunderland are relegated. Swansea are 1 point above the relegation zone with 41 points the key to safety.
  • Sunderland still have a mischievous glint in the eye, as shown by the 0-2 win v Hull last match despite relegation confirmation.
  • That was one of only 2 wins since Boxing Day.
  • Sunderland failed to score in 6 of their last 7 at home. Where they did score, it was a 2-2 draw with West Ham.
  • 9 without a win for Sunderland. It seems they knew how to beat Hull, having done the double over them.
  • Swansea are poor away, their only wins v Liverpool, Burnley and Palace.
  • Win, Draw, Win last 3 for Swansea, albeit the draw came away. That makes it 7 away without a win and conceding in 17 consecutive aways.
  • No away 0-0 for the Swans.

Conclusions

  • Relegated v needs-must. Sunderland did the double over Hull, their most recent win so they do still have a say in the relegation dog fight despite being relegated.
  • Swansea are poor away, conceded in their last 17 away but if we look really recently, have 2 home wins and an away draw with Man Utd which was most welcome and is their current lifeline.
  • I could see a 0-0 for a while here and Swansea push on from their draw with Man Utd. 41 points is their goal to guarantee safety. It necessitates wins though. A draw will do dependent on what Hull do.
  • I am with Swansea in this match.

15:00 - Espanyol v Valencia - 2.42 Espanyol

  • 3 2-1 scorelines in the last 4 head to heads in favour of Valencia.
  • This is 9th v 13th in Spanish Primera Liga.
  • It does look like season over for these 2 with 2 matches remaining so I shan't dwell too long on this one.
  • Espanyol I note have only 2 defeats at home outside of the big 3 and have 6 wins and a draw at home v 14th and lower.
  • I like Espanyol's recent form. It does take a decent side to beat them lately (Atl Madrid and Barca the most recent 2).
  • All defeats bar a win for Valencia away v 14th and higher sees form favour Espanyol.

Conclusions

  • Little to play for from both camps. On form, Espanyol's home form is far more superior to Valencia away. Is that enough to side with the home team despite the dead rubber status?

15:00 - Stabaek v Rosenborg - 1.74 Rosenborg

  • 0-2 Rosenborg in the last head to head.
  • This is an introduction to the Norwegian Eliteserien which is 7 matches old.
  • These 2 are in the top 3 so have started the season off very well.
  • 3 consecutive home wins for Stabaek ended with a loss last match.
  • Stabaek only failed to score in that loss.
  • Rosenborg are unbeaten this season with 6 wins and a draw. Their last 2 wins were 2-1.
  • 0-3, 0-1, 1-2 for Rosenborg away from home.
  • There is still little to get our teeth into patterns wise in this Norwegian league.
  • Will Rosenborg maintain their unbeaten run? Will they maintain their 100% win record away? Rosenborg do tend to win head to heads.

17:00 - Fiorentina v Lazio - 2.16 Fiorentina

  • 3-1 Lazio the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 8th v 4th in Italian Seria A.
  • 3 matches remain this season.
  • Fiorentina seem to have little to play for. Although mathematically possible to finish 5th, I cannot see it happening.
  • Lazio do have 3rd place in their sights but need Napoli to make some horrendous slip ups. With Atalanta in 5th and close, I think Lazio should remain incentivised enough to continue to give their all.
  • Only 4 losses for Fiorentina since 22nd December is solid form, 3 of those came away.
  • 3 wins in 4 at home, Fiorentina were very unlucky to lose to a 90th+ minute penalty against Empoli when dominating the match.
  • Failing to score in only 6 all season we should always expect at least a goal from Fiorentina.
  • Fiorentina have now conceded 2 goals at least in each of their last 5 matches. A case of end-of-seasonitis?
  • Only 1 home loss really should see us favouring Fiorentina not to lose.
  • They do have draws v 3rd 5th and 6th, with the draws v 5th and 6th 0-0 at home.
  • 8 of Fiorentina's 9 wins at home were by a single goal.
  • Fiorentina have conceded 14 of their 19 goals 2nd half at home.
  • Lazio look to be in rock solid form and it is a shock not to see them as market leaders.
  • Since 5th Feb, only Napoli has beaten Lazio.
  • 2-6-3-7 goals scored recently by Lazio against, remember, a Fiorentina side conceding 2 goals at least in each of their last 5!
  • Lazio have scored 2 goals at least in 6 of their last 7 away.
  • Lazio have only 1 defeat home or away v 8th and lower.

Conclusions

  • I don't know about you but I can make a strong argument for Lazio today, going against the market. Fiorentina are conceding 2 goals with regularity and that is dangerous against a side with 18 goals in 4 games and incentivised to play for 3rd spot.
  • I must oppose any Fiorentina lead despite the 3 wins in 4 at home. The match against Empoli did show some Fiorentina vulnerability and remember their recent 5-4 v Inter - they conceded 4 goals remember!
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market in the hope for a goals fest, and be opposing Fiorentina through the match if they lead.

17:00 - Sogndal v Viking - 2.54 Viking

  • These are the bottom 2 after 7 matches in the Norwegian Eliteserien and the market is telling you that these 2 cannot be split.
  • 1-2 Viking in the most recent head to head.
  • Sogndal have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Both sides have the one win and have failed to score in 4 matches of 7 this season.
  • 0-0-1 scored by Viking away.
  • Next please! Back 0-0 if you want and hope these 2 continue to stutter but it is very early doors in the season. They may find each other an easier assignment!

17:00 - Odd BK v Stromsgodset - 2.12 Odd

  • Both teams have scored in the last 4 head to heads, with 3 2-1 scorelines, 2 to Odds.
  • This is 4th v 11th in the Norwegian Eliteserien after 7 matches.
  • No draw for Odd this season. 3 wins in 4 suggests they may be getting into their stride. Recent wins have been 1-0 or 2-1.
  • 3 consecutive home wins for Odd. Odd are very poor away from home. So are they reliant on home form this season?
  • Only 1 win in 6 matches for Stroms and they failed to score 2 goals in a match in those 6 matches.
  • Loss, Draw, Loss so far away for Stroms.

Conclusions

  • The purpose of showing you these is as an introduction to the Norwegian Eliteserien for the summer. A bit early for form analysis and pattern searching.
  • That said, will Odd continue to avoid the draws? If so, lay the late draw.
  • Will Odd continue their pattern of winning at home and losing away? If so, lay Stroms if Stroms score first.

17:00 - Sarpsborg v Tromso - 1.61 Sarpsborg

  • 1-2 Sarpsborg and 2-2 last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 2nd v 12th in the Norwegian Eliteserien after 7 matches.
  • Sarpsborg are currently 2nd despite 2 losses and a draw in their last 4 matches.
  • 3 wins at home ended against Rosenborg. So no real surprises there.
  • No 0-0 at halftime yet for Sarpsborg.
  • The 2 Sarpsborg defeats this season have come v the current top 3.
  • 3 losses and a draw for Tromso in their last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet for Tromso.
  • 3 losses and a 1-1 draw for Tromso home and away v the current top 8.

Conclusions

  • This looks a readable match from Norway. I would expect a Sarpsborg win today. They have easy wins v bottom sides (albeit bottom after 7 matches).
  • Only top side Rosenborg have beaten Sarpsborg at home.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Back Sarpsborg if Tromso score first.
  • Caveat - we are expecting form after 7 matches only to be repeated today!

17:30 - Stoke v Arsenal - 1.74 Arsenal

  • 3-1 Arsenal last head to head.
  • This is 13th v 5th in the Premiership. 41 points Stoke have and that guarantees survival.
  • Arsenal are 3 points shy of Man City so must win really and hope Leicester do them a favour earlier on in their quest for 4th place.
  • Only 1 win in 9 for Stoke was against Hull. Their season has been over for a while it seems, at least mentally.
  • Still no win home or away for Stoke v teams above them in the league. All defeats v top 4.
  • 4 wins in 5 matches for Arsenal - winning at the right time and 2 consecutive 2-0 scorelines. The Man Utd win I think has given them a shot in the arm.
  • Arsenal ended a 5 match losing run away with that win against Southampton which was thanks largely to the brilliance of Sanchez.
  • With 3 clean sheets in 4, Arsenal are likely to work from the back.
  • 13 wins, 2 defeats and a draw for Arsenal v 12th and lower. They must be targeting this match for 3 points. Get this hurdle out of the way and Arsenal finish the season with 2 home matches.
  • Arsenal tend to score and concede far more in the second half away so note that.

Conclusions

  • I did strongly fancy Arsenal against Southampton and do so again today. It looks a match where they can win against a Stoke side long since giving up on the season.
  • Arsenal should be winning today and looking at another clean sheet. Stoke simply do not beat teams above them in the league. Why would that change now that they are totally un-motivated?
  • Note Arsenal's strong 2nd half scoring and conceding so any 0-0 at halftime is opposable 2nd half.
  • If 0-0 at halftime I would back 0-2 and 1-2.

17:30 - Osasuna v Granada - 1.85 Osasuna

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 teams met.
  • Both sides are relegated.
  • I note Osasuna have scored 2 goals in each of their last 3 home matches, with 2 consecutive 2-2's.
  • 10 defeats and a 0-0 in 11 matches now for Granada.
  • Another entertaining goal fest in store for 2 teams whose fate is known?

17:30 - Fulham v Reading - 1.68 Fulham

  • 1-0 Reading the last time these 2 met.
  • The play-off semi finals are often described as the most lucrative games in football. The winner could enter the hallowed ground of the Premiership.
  • Given the importance of these matches, tight scorelines seem to be the norm and backing 0-0 pre match might have legs. I tend to trade out if 0-0 at halftime.
  • It is so tough to call though. Nerves play a big part. Tough to research too.
  • What do we know about Fulham? Well without consulting soccerstats.com I know that they have a reputation for goals, usually 2 or 3. They would love their strikers to be on that form today.
  • Reading this season have been very poor away. 9 defeats and a win away v top 11 sides.
  • The market has gone with home form and the free-scoring Londoners. Do you agree?

19:45 - Atalanta v AC Milan - 2.22 Atalanta

  • 0-0 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 5th v 6th in the Italian Seria A.
  • All these 2 teams have to play for is Atalanta looking for 4th and AC Milan looking for 5th spot. What benefits this will accrue to the 2 teams I'm not so sure.
  • Atalanta are in solid enough form with only 2 defeats since 17th December, both away to Lazio and Inter Milan. It takes a good team to beat Atalanta currently.
  • 4 score draws in 5 matches though for Atalanta means they are not killing games off. They scored and conceded in their last 5 matches.
  • Win, Draw, Win, Draw, Win, Draw is the current home sequence for Atalanta and Sir Desmond Tutu has visited the last 2 home matches with a 3-2 and a 2-2.
  • Failing to score in only 5 matches, we do tend to expect Atalanta to get on the scoresheet so note that today.
  • Atalanta at home have scored 2 goals at least in 4 of 5 matches played v top 7 so are confident v the best.
  • 19 of Atalanta's 29 home goals came 2nd half.
  • They play an AC Milan side faltering a bit.
  • No win in 4 away matches saw 3 draws. Only 1 win in 6 matches was at home to strugglers Palermo.
  • Both teams scored in Milan's last 4 matches.
  • Like Atalanta, Milan have failed to score in only 6 matches so we tend to see a goal from them.
  • 12 consecutive Milan matches without a 0-0 at halftime.
  • Milan are yet to beat the top 9 away but have drawn 4th-9th.
  • Like Atalanta, Milan tend to score more 2nd half, 16 of their 23 goals came 2nd half away.

Conclusions

  • I am not sure there is a whole lot to benefit either team now. On form Atalanta are the team, likely to score 2 goals again against a top side at home. Both teams have a both teams to score pattern currently which might emerge today and I would remain with Atalanta were Milan to score first or lead 0-2.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. A bit counter-intuitive given the strong 2nd half scoring trends of both sides. It is based more on Milan's recent form.
  • If you want a big odds punt, back 2-2. Sir Desmond has appeared twice in 2 home matches for Atalanta and we know both sides have a good season-long scoring record.