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14:30 for the live chat webinar on Zoom, see details below. I will telegram throughout the day too!

Clive Keeling is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.

Topic: DRT live chat webinar for 13th March 2021

Time: Mar 13, 2021 02:30 PM London

Join Zoom Meeting

https://us02web.zoom.us/j/81739478768?pwd=TnhVbmVtRnhxRzlxS2JPaXJudkFsUT09

Meeting ID: 817 3947 8768

Passcode: 733593


English Premier League

12:30 - Leeds v Chelsea - 1.75 Chelsea

  • The eternal conundrum. Which Leeds turns up?
  • 4 defeats in 5 for Leeds. 2 wins and a loss at home for Leeds.
  • Chelsea under Tuchel are hard to score against. 7 clean sheets in 9 matches. 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Leeds have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches but did score 3 v Southampton recently at home.
  • At home they have scored and conceded against the top 6 without winning. That will be my expectation today if they score.
  • 1st goal: Leeds have conceded first in 7/12 home matches while Chelsea have scored first in 7/11 away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 12/20 Chelsea away matches.

15:00 - Crystal Palace v West Brom - 2.10 Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace

  • 2 0-0's and a 4-1 loss latest.
  • Failed to score last 3 at home.
  • 2 consecutive home 0-0's.
  • 1-5 win last head to head.
  • Unbeaten home and away v the bottom 4.

West Brom

  • The slow accumulation of points.
  • Only 1 loss in 5 matches sees 6 points accumulated.3 clean sheets in 4 matches but 2 of the recent clean sheets were 0-0.

Conclusions

  • Back 0-0 pre match? The Palace 0-0 sequence at home will end at some point. 3 clean sheets in 4 for West Brom. Palace failing to score last 3 at home.
  • Any win you suspect could be a 1-0/0-1?
  • 1st goal: C Palace have scored first in 7/11 home matches against bottom-six teams while WBA have lost 5/7 away matches against middle-third teams. WBA have lost the first half in 8/13 away matches.

17:30 - Everton v Burnley - 1.85 Everton

Everton - 6th

  • 3 consecutive wins to nil ended with a loss v Chelsea last match.
  • Loss, Loss, Loss, Win at home.
  • 3 clean sheets ended last match.
  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • Outside the top 2, the lost only when they failed to score.
  • 12/18 goals scored at home came 1st half.
  • 11 goals conceded away last 1/2 hour of matches.

Burnley - 15th

  • 4 draws in 5 matches.
  • Win, Loss, Win, Loss away recently.
  • Not beaten the top 7 home or away - all defeats away.

Conclusions

  • Burnley tend to lose to the top 6 away, is there any reason to expect a different outcome? They are drawing of late and that may be best case. If Everton score at home outside of the top 2, they tend not to lose.
  • 1st goal: Everton have conceded first in 8/10 home matches against bottom-six teams while Burnley have scored first in 7/10 away matches against top-six teams. Everton have lost by two or more goals in 6/10 home matches against bottom-six teams.

20:00 - Fulham v Man City - 1.33 Man City

Fulham - 18th

  • Only 2 defeats in 10 at home came v Leicester and Tottenham.
  • 5 clean sheets in their last 7 matches.
  • 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 at home recently.
  • Not beaten a top 17 side at home.
  • 2-0 loss last head to head.
  • 3/3 losses at home v the top 4.

Man City - 1st

  • 15 consecutive wins ended by Man Utd but then back on track v Southampton.
  • 7 consecutive away wins.
  • No draw in 17.
  • All wins bar a 1-1 v 12th and lower.
  • 16th March Champions League match.

Conclusions

  • A 2nd consecutive 1-0 win for Fulham against a pre-Champions League side? Surely not. If ever City were gettable, it is if Pep Gladioli makes team changes prior to a Champions League match.
  • Match outcome: Fulham have lost 8/14 home matches while Man City have won 9/10 away matches against bottom-six teams. Man City have had W/W double results in 7/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.

Spanish La Liga Primera

13:00 - Alaves v Cadiz - 2.15 Alaves

Alaves - 19th

  • Only 2 wins in 15 matches.
  • 4 consecutive losses.
  • Loss, Loss, Loss, Win, Loss at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home, 2 at fulltime.
  • 3-1 loss last head to head.
  • 2/3 wins at home were 1-0.

Cadiz - 14th

  • Only 2 wins in 14 matches.
  • Won last match at home.
  • No win in 8 away, conceding in those 8 away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 16th and lower. All wins v 18th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Cadiz have an excellent win record v 18th and lower and that surely gives them advantage here despite no win in 8 away?
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 6/8 Alaves home matches against middle-third teams and in 8/12 Cadiz away matches. Alaves have conceded first in 12/20 home matches.

15:15 - Real Madrid v Elche - 1.20 Real Madrid

Real Madrid - 3rd

  • Play Atalanta in the Champions League on 16th March 2021. Will that impact today's performance?
  • 4 wins and 2 score draws latest.
  • Loss, Win, Win, Draw at home recently.
  • 1-1-1 goals scored recently.
  • Scored in their last 8 and last 10 at home.
  • 1-3 win last head to head.

Elche - 17th

  • 2 consecutive home wins were the only wins since 1st November.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats.
  • No win 10 away.
  • Conceded last 7 away.
  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • Not beaten top 16 away.

Conclusions

  • Pre-Champions League Real Madrid - will the curse strike?
  • they have only score 1-1-1 goals recently. Look out for possible struggles but remember that Elche are yet to beat the top 16 away.
  • Asian handicap: Real Madrid have won by two or more goals in 7/10 home matches and they have had W/W double results in 5/8 home matches against bottom-six teams. Elche have conceded first in 8/10 away matches.

17:30 - Osasuna v Valladolid - 2.25 Osasuna

Osasuna - 13th

  • 4 wins and 3 losses last 7 matches.
  • Draw, Draw, Win, Win, Loss, Loss at home.
  • Failed to score last 2 at home.
  • Not played 12th-17th at home.
  • 3-2 loss last head to head.
  • 12 goals in total last 15 mins of matches at home.

Valladolid - 16th

  • Only 2 wins in 13 matches.
  • 3 score draws and a win last 4 away.
  • Conceded last 9.
  • Only 1 loss away v 9th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Osasuna have not met 12th-17th at home so we have a gap in form.
  • Slightly favour Valladolid given their single loss only away v 9th and lower BUT recent form poor.
  • 1st half outcome: Osasuna have drawn the first half in 6/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while there have been -2.5 goals in 9/12 Valladolid away matches against middle-third teams. Valladolid have drawn the first half in 6/9 away matches against middle-third teams.

20:00 - Getafe v Atletico Madrid (Champions League 17th March 2021) - 2.00 Atletico Madrid

Getafe - 15th

  • 6 defeats, a draw and a win latest. 3-0 home win v Valencia last home match.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, 1 at fulltime.
  • 1-0 loss last head to head.
  • v top 5 at home, 1-0 win and 2 0-1 defeats.
  • 7/9 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Atl Madrid - 1st

  • No defeat in 7 away, scoring in those 7.
  • 5 wins and a 0-0 away v 12th and lower.
  • 11 goals scored last 1/2 hour of matches.

Conclusions

  • 2-1 up last match. Sub Suarez. Sit on it. Win. It was effective last match. Same today for Madrid particularly as they have to manage this match with one eye on the Champions League on 17th March. Watch out for potential struggles. 3 1-0 results for Getafe v the top 5 at home and at the wrong end of the table.
  • Back 0-0 pre match?
  • 1st goal: Getafe have conceded first in 6/8 home matches against top-six teams while Atl. Madrid have won 9/11 away matches. Getafe have lost 6/8 home matches against top-six teams.

German Bundesliga

14:30 - Mainz v Freiburg - 2.62 Mainz

  • Leave this to the in-play stats.
  • 1st goal: FSV Mainz 05 have conceded first in 14/16 home matches against top-half teams and they have lost 9/12 such matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 10/14 SC Freiburg away matches.

14:30 - Union Berlin v Koln - 1.95 Union Berlin

  • I hope you are getting a feel for the kind of matches that can be tough to decipher. Derbies, top 3 clashes....and newly promoted sides meeting each other. It is the latter in this case. Leave this to the in-play stats as these 2 would naturally assume a greater opportunity for 3 points.
  • HT/FT: Union Berlin have had W/W double results in 5/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while FC Koln have conceded first in 13/17 away matches against top-half teams. Union Berlin have won 5/8 home matches against bottom-six teams.

14:30 - Werder Bremen v Bayern Munich - 1.25 Bayern

Werder Bremen - 12th

  • Only 2 losses in 10 matches came away.
  • Win, Draw, Win recently.
  • Win, Draw, Draw, Win at home recently.
  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • Not met top 3 at home.
  • 8/11 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Bayern Munich - 1st

  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE on 17th March 2021 v Lazio.
  • Only 3 defeats did come away from home. Last loss, 2-1 away came near a Champions League match.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Scored last 24 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Lost away v 10th and 11th and play 12th today.

Conclusions

  • Curse of the Champions League did for Bayern in their last away loss v Frankfurt. We have a Werder in decent form. Could they pull off a shock? This is the weekend to do it. Look for possible Bayern team changes. Bayern do score so Werder will need 2 goals to win. That may be a tough ask for them.
  • 1st goal: W. Bremen have conceded first in 14/20 home matches while Bayern have won 6/8 away matches against middle-third teams. W. Bremen have lost 6/9 home matches against top-six teams.

14:30 - Wolfsburg v Schalke - 1.33 Wolfsburg

Wolfsburg - 3rd

  • Only 3 defeats all came away from home. Lost last away match.
  • No defeat in 11 at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • 0-2 win last head to head.
  • 100% wins v bottom 3.

Schalke - 18th

  • Only 1 win.
  • No win in 9 and in 11 away.
  • 100% defeats v top 6, failing to score in all bar 1 match.

Conclusions

  • Schalke are continuously opposable until showing a spec of a revival.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 6/8 Wolfsburg home matches against bottom-six teams and in 7/8 Schalke 04 away matches against top-six teams. Schalke 04 have lost by two or more goals in 5/8 away matches against top-six teams.

17:30 - Dortmund v Hertha Berlin - 1.50 Dortmund

Dortmund - 6th

  • No more Champions League.
  • Draw, Win, Win, Loss recently.
  • 8 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches.
  • Scored last 22 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored last 4 and last 3 at home.
  • 2-5 win last head to head.
  • 19/25 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Hertha Berlin - 15th

  • Only 1 win in 10 came last match.
  • No win in 8 away.
  • Not beaten top 10 away.
  • 14/19 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • If Haaland purrs for Dortmund, there will be only one outcome. Dortmund are scoring 2 goals regularly. Do remember their strong 2nd half scoring pattern, particularly if they do not score first half.
  • Hertha are yet to beat the top 10 so please remember that.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 10/12 B. Dortmund home matches against bottom-six teams and in 13/20 Hertha Berlin away matches. Hertha Berlin have lost 7/11 away matches against top-six teams.

Italian Serie A

14:00 - Sassuolo v Verona - 2.37 Sassuolo

  • Only 1 win in 9 for Sassuolo meets only 3 wins in 9 for Verona. Not a match for indepth research.
  • Sassuolo have scored and conceded last 6 at home and conceded last 14 matches.
  • This is not a match with strong patterns so leave it to the in-play stats.
  • 1st goal: Sassuolo have conceded first in 7/9 home matches against top-half teams while Verona have scored first in 7/9 away matches against middle-third teams. Verona have drawn 6/10 away matches against middle-third teams.

17:00 - Benevento v Fiorentina - 2.25 Fiorentina

Benevento - 16th

  • Still a bit too near the relegation zone.
  • No win in 10 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home draws ended with a loss last home match.
  • No win in 10 and in 6 at home.
  • 0-1 win last head to head.
  • Did beat 12th and 13th at home.

Fiorentina - 14th

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches. Last 3 wins - only 3 since 6th Jan 2021, came at home.
  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 away matches.
  • Only 1 away win v 3rd saw Juve red carded.

Conclusions

  • A chance for Benevento here if Fiorentina still struggle on their travels. Their only wins this year came at home. Benevento were keeping draws at home and will be competitive here.
  • 1st half outcome: Benevento have drawn the first half in 3/5 home matches against middle-third teams as have Fiorentina in 8/12 away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 12/18 Fiorentina away matches.

19:45 - Genoa v Udinese - 2.45 Udinese

  • A few of these today. 2.4+ the favourite.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 14/20 Genoa home matches and in 7/10 Udinese away matches. Udinese have scored first in 6/9 away matches against middle-third teams.

Over 3.5 goals

Lion City Sailors v Tampines Rovers, S-League, Singapore March 13, 9:30

  • There have been +3.5 goals in 7/10 Home Utd home matches and in 5/9 Tampines Rovers away matches against top-half teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 Home Utd home matches.

Sivasspor v F Karagumruk, Super Lig (TUR), Turkey March 13, 10:30

  • There have been +3.5 goals in 6/11 F Karagumruk away matches and +2.5 goals in 9/14 F Karagumruk away matches. Sivasspor have drawn the first half in 9/13 home matches against top-half teams.

Wehen v Ingolstadt 04, 3rd Liga, Germany March 13, 13:00

  • There have been +3.5 goals in 6/10 Wehen home matches and +2.5 goals in 7/10 Wehen home matches. Ingolstadt 04 have drawn the first half in 5/8 away matches against top-six teams.