Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

See you for a live chat webinar at 14:30. I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook.

SPANISH PRIMEIRA LIGA

13:00 - Espanyol v Alaves - 2.15 Espanyol

Espanyol - 20th

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Draw, Draw, Draw, Win, Draw at home. Trying hard to accumulate points to stave off relegation.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored last 8 at home.
  • Only home win was a 1-0 v 18th.
  • 0-0 v Alaves earlier this season.

Alaves - 14th

  • Both teams scored in 9 of their last 11 matches.
  • Failed to score that 2nd goal last 6 away.
  • Conceded last 7.
  • Come alive v 12th and lower, all wins bar 1 came there. Single loss home and away was 1-0 v Mallorca.
  • 9 of 11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Alaves look safe from harm, but not mathematically so.
  • Back 0-0 pre match given the lack of goalscoring for both sides. Cash out as late as you dare.
  • Relegation six pointer is the reason bottom side Espanyol have put together an unbeaten run. We cannot discount them but Alaves tend to win, if they win, v 12th and lower.

16:00 - Celta Vigo v Villarreal - 2.6 Celta

  • Celta Vigo are unbeaten in the last 3 head to heads but 2.6 the favourite, coming off a long break, puts me off researching.
  • Both teams scored in the last 3 head to heads. Celta scored 3 goals in each of the last 3 heads to heads.

18:30 - Leganes v Valladolid - 2.4 Leganes

  • 1-0 Leganes and 2-2 last 2 head to heads. Leganes led twice in those matches.
  • This is a relegation six pointer. Valladolid are 4 points shy of the bottom 3 so in slightly better shape. A win for Leganes would take them 3rd bottom.
  • Must watch as points, from hereon in will be precious. We saw the likes of Werder improve markedly after the enforced break. What of Leganes? 1-1 draw and 1-2 win last 2 matches in March augured well for them. 4 points in 6 matches.

21:00 - Mallorca v Barcelona - 1.3 Barcelona

  • No indepth research as Mallorca are relegation threatened and may play above their form.
  • All Barca losses this season came away.
  • Barca conceded in their last 5 away.
  • Mallorca did beat Real Madrid 1-0 at home but failed to score v other top 6 at home.
  • Barca do concede v bottom 3, 1-2 and 2-2 this season away v bottom 3.
  • Angles? Watch out for Mallorca parking a number of buses. Only 1 loss in 4 sees another side looking to stave off relegation.
  • Barca still have plenty to play for. If Mallorca lead, I would cover the 1-0 but be confident in laying them/backing Barca a goal down.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Fort. Dusseldorf v Dortmund - 1.36 Dortmund

  • We see a lot of these matches, both sides need points for different reasons.
  • Dusseldorf's Achilles Heel showed v 10 man Hoffenheim when they could not win and did not have a shot on target from the 30th minute to the 90th minute.
  • This will be punished by Dortmund today.
  • Dusseldorf have impressed but key for me is a 5-0 loss v Bayern and that poor 2-2 v 10 man Hoff. Hertha Berlin were tough to beat for Dortmund but Emre Can got the goal. I can see Dortmund returning to 2+ goals today and I fear this will be a write-off for Dusseldorf in their relegation battle.

14:30 - Hertha Berlin v Frankfurt - 2.1 Hertha

Hertha Berlin - 9th

  • Only 1 loss in 7 was a 1-0 defeat to Dortmund latest. Prior to that match, 3-2-3-4-2-2 goals scored in an unbeaten run.
  • A draw and 2 wins at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • Only 1 win at home v the top 12.
  • 2-2 v Frank earlier this season.
  • 73% over 2.5 goals matches at home.

Frankfurt - 11th

  • 2 wins in 3 matches came last 2 matches away.
  • Those wins were the only occasions in 9 matches in which Frank did not concede 2 goals at least.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away, none at fulltime.
  • 4 wins away v 6th, 7th, 14th and 17th.
  • 15 of 18 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • No strong angles for me with Frank suddenly winning 2 on the trot away.
  • Certainly lay any 2nd half 0-0.

14:30 - Koln v Union Berlin - 2.00 Koln

  • I'll wheel out my old stat about Koln.
  • 12th v 14th. Union Berlin are precariously close to the relegation zone.
  • 4/5 defeats for Koln since, coincidentally Union beat them on 8th December, have come v the top 5. This is strong. But Koln are on a run of 6 without a win, seeing 2-2, 2-2, 2-4 at home.
  • Koln have scored in their last 16 and last 12 at home. They have scored and conceded in their last 7 matches.
  • Koln are unbeaten at home v 10th and lower. 2-0 loss v Union Berlin earlier this season.
  • Union Berlin have no win in 7 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats for Union Berlin.
  • Union conceded in their last 9 matches.
  • 100% defeats for Union v the top 10 away but they beat 11th and drew with 13th away.
  • 22 of 33 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • Angles? I expect Koln to score today, maybe even 2 goals. I still cannot get over the fact that, taking red card defeat v Hoff, it has only taken the top 5 to beat Koln since their last defeat v Union early December. I'll stick with that today and with Koln.

14:30 - Paderborn v Werder Bremen - 2.2 Werder

  • Relegation 6 pointer(ish) although with recent results I think these 2 are down. Werder lost again and their near rivals Mainz won and Dusseldorf drew. The onus is on Werder to nick a 0-1 here. That has been their modus operandi since the return. They are obviously extremely limited.
  • 4 matches remain this season. Werder must win their next 3 matches and hope other results go their way. Backing 0-0 pre match tends to work with Werder at least until halftime. This will be their weakest opponent in some time. Can they take advantage?

14:30 - Wolfsburg v Freiburg - 1.78 Wolf

Wolfsburg - 6th

  • Only 2 losses in 11 did come at home last 2 home matches.
  • Only 1 win at home v the top 11.
  • 1-0 loss v Freiburg last time.

Freiburg - 8th

  • No win in 5 away.
  • Conceded last 13 away.
  • Only 1 win away v the top 14.

Conclusions

  • Both sides have as equally a poor record v the top 11. The Wolf have started losing at home too, 2 consecutive matches.

17:30 - Bayern Munich v M'gladbach - 1.33 Bayern

Bayern Munich - 1st

  • 15 wins and a 0-0 last 16 matches.
  • 7 wins and a 0-0 last 8 at home.
  • 5 clean sheets last 7 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored in their last 4 at home.
  • 2-1 loss v Mgladbach earlier this season.
  • 3/4 losses this season came v the top 7, 2 1-2 losses.

Mgladbach - 4th

  • Only 1 win in 4 matches.
  • Lost 1-0 and drew 2-2 v other top 3 away.

Conclusions

  • Bayern are very short odds considering that, when they do lose, they tend to lose to top 7 sides. 1-2 losses tend to be the norm.
  • In-play stats for me. No getting round the fact that Bayern are superb of late and that may trump the form v the top 7.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA 2

12:00 - Heidenheim v Regensburg - 1.8 Heidenheim

Heidenheim - 4th

  • 5 losses since 19th October came away.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • No defeat in 10 at home.
  • 9 0-0's at halftime at home (60%).
  • 3-1 loss v Regensburg last time these 2 met.
  • Only 2 home losses v 8th and 11th.
  • 17 of 26 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Regensburg - 12th

  • 4 draws and a win last 5 matches.
  • No win in 5 away.
  • Not beaten the top 7 away.
  • 3/3 defeats away v the top 3.

Conclusions

  • Heidenheim are excellent at home and will want to gain revenge against a Regensburg with no win in 5 away and not beating a top 7 side away.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.

12:00 - Holstein Kiel v Wehen - 1.8 Holstein Kiel

Holstein Kiel - 10th

  • Only 1 win in 8 came v red carded Stuttgart.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 matches.
  • Conceded last 14 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • 4/4 wins v bottom 3.
  • Scored and conceded in all homes v 5th and lower.

Wehen - 17th

  • 4 consecutive losses.
  • 4 losses in 5 matches away.
  • Conceded last 11 matches.
  • Only 1 away win v the top 12.
  • 10 goals conceded last 15 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Wehen are highly likely to concede.

12:00 - Nurnberg v Greuther Furth - 1.95 Nurnberg

Nurnberg - 15th

  • 2 losses and 4 draws.
  • 2 losses and 2 draws last 4 at home.
  • Not beaten a top 10 side at home.
  • 0-0 last head to head.
  • 8 goals conceded last 15 minutes at home.

Greuther Furth - 9th

  • Only 1 win in 10 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away draws.
  • No defeat in 5 away.
  • Scored last 7 away.
  • Unbeaten away v 12th and lower.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, Greuther Furth are unbeaten away v 12th and lower. Enough to expect a positive result for them?
  • Watch out for Nurnberg conceding post 75th minute goals.

12:00 - Osnabruck v Bochum - 2.4 Osnabruck


COPPA ITALIA

20:45 - Napoli v Inter Milan - 2.6 both sides

  • 0-1 Napoli win in the first leg of this Coppa Italia match.
  • No angles for me I'm afraid. Inter need to score first.

PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA

21:00 - Braga v Boavista - 1.4 Braga

Braga - 3rd

  • 9 wins, a draw and a loss last 11 matches. The loss was down to a red card.
  • 4 wins and a 2-2 last 5 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Scored in their last 11 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • 2-0 loss v Boavista earlier this season.
  • Only 2 losses at home v 1st and 16th.
  • 15 of 22 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 11 of 15 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Boavista - 11th

  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Not beaten the top 8 away.
  • 8 of 10 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • I will stick with Braga who were in cruise control last match, leading 1-2 until being red carded. Do note the 2nd half goal trends in Braga matches.

TURKISH SUPER LIG

16:30 - Istanbul Basaksehir v Alanyaspor - 1.83 Basaksehir

Basaksehir - 2nd

  • Only 3 losses.
  • 5 wins and 2 draws last 7 matches.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • No defeat 12 at home.
  • Scored last 13 at home.
  • Only 1 home loss v Fenerbahce who did the double over them.
  • 0-0 last head to head.
  • 10 of 12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Alanyaspor - 6th

  • Only 1 win in 6 came last match.
  • Conceded last 11 away.
  • All defeats away v the top 5. 3 of those losses were 1-0.
  • 10 of 13 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • If Alanyaspor go down, it could be fighting. 3 1-0 defeats away v the top 5. So prepare for that eventuality. Alanyaspor are unlikely to score that 2nd goal today and play a Basaksehir who were in rare form. No defeat in 12 at home, scoring last 13 at home.

19:00 - Besiktas v Antalyaspor - 1.44 Besiktas

Besiktas - 5th

  • Draw, Win, Win, Draw last 4 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 at home.
  • 1-2 win v Antalyaspor earlier.
  • 7 wins, a draw and loss at home v 6th and lower.
  • 19 of 25 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Antalyaspor - 11th

  • Unbeaten in 8.
  • No win away v top 6.

Conclusions

  • Although Antalyaspor are unbeaten in 8 they have not beaten a top 6 side away. Will that pattern continue today against a Besiktas tending to beat teams 6th and lower.

19:00 - Malatyaspor v Kasimpasa - 2.15 Malatyaspor

Malatyaspor - 15th

  • 8 losses and a draw last 9 matches.
  • 5 losses and a draw last 6 home matches.
  • Conceded last 11 matches.
  • Only 3 wins at home v 2nd, 10th and 18th.
  • 2-2 last time these 2 met.
  • 13 of 19 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Kasimpasa - 13th

  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 matches. The wins came at home.
  • No win in 5 away.
  • Unbeaten away v 14th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Not a match which appeals on paper. Watch out for 2nd half goals.

BELARUS PREMIER LEAGUE

14:00 - Neman v Smolevichi - 1.80 Neman

Neman - 7th

  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • Only 1 home loss.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 4 matches.
  • Scored last 6 and last 5 at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 12th and lower.

Smolevichi

  • Only win came last match, 4-1 at home.
  • Draw, Loss, Draw, Draw, Loss away.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score a 2nd goal away.

Conclusions

  • It would be a leap for me to expect a 2nd consecutive Smolevichi win against a Neman with 3 consecutive wins. Further, Smole have trouble even scoring that 2nd goal away.

16:00 - Torpedo BelAZ v Din. Brest - 1.95 Dinamo Brest

Torpedo

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • 4 wins and a draw at home.

Dinamo Brest

  • Very inconsistent. 2 losses, 2 wins, 2 losses, 2 wins. The Champions are threatening a return.10 goals scored in their last 2 matches.
  • No draw in 11.
  • Scored and conceded last 5.
  • Torpedo are 3rd at the moment. Dinamo Brest lost to the top 4 so far 3/3 losses.

Conclusions

  • Which Dinamo Brest turns up today? The 2 wins or the 2 losses Dinamo Brest.
  • The market got them spot on last match at 1.45 odds and they won easily. A shade of odds on here but 3/3 losses v the current top 4 and playing 3rd today.
  • Both teams to score is a strong angle here as well. Watching brief via the in-play stats please.

18:00 - Dyn. Minsk v Mozyr - 1.36 Dinamo Minsk

Dinamo Minsk - 8th

  • After failing to score that 2nd goal in 5 matches, Dinamo Minsk scored 4 last match.
  • 3 wins and 2 defeats last 5 at home, the market is very sweet on them today.
  • 2 of 3 home losses were 0-1.

Slavia Mozyr - 10th

  • 4 wins included last season's top 2 in the first 3 matches of the season. Both teams have scored in the wins.
  • Conceded last 6 away.
  • 3/4 defeats away v top 9.

Conclusions

  • I have seen better looking 1.36 shots. Slavia Mozyr are very generous away, tending to concede 2 goals.
  • Lay Mozyr if they score first but cover the 0-1.
  • Mozyr have collected 3 defeats v the top 9. Is that why Minsk are so well thought of?

GREEK SUPER LEAGUE

17:15 - Volos v Xanthi - 1.85 Xanthi

  • 2 3-1 losses for Volos already in head to heads this season. This is the Relegation Group so limited research, just Challenge Table.
  • 3 Volos wins v top 12 this season at home were 1-0. Xanthi are 12th.
  • Xanthi did beat 3rd and 4th away this season but the 2 wins amongst all defeats v top 10 away.
  • Win, Win, Draw away v 11th and lower though.
  • On the limited form we have to work with, the market looks right here in this relegation group. Head to Heads were emphatic.

17:30 - Atromitos v Lamia - 1.65 Atromitos

  • 8th v 10th here in this Relegation Group.
  • Atromitos were emphatic at home. Lost to top 4 but unbeaten outside top 4. 1-1 and 2-2 v Lamia this season suggests Atromitos will not lose.
  • Lamia were far better at home. They scored 2+ goals only once away and should that continue, Atromitos should take advantage.

19:30 - Panathinaikos v PAOK - 2.1 PAOK

  • This is a Championship Group clash.
  • Only 2 losses for Panathanaikos since 3rd November 2019.
  • 8 wins and a draw for Panathanaikos in their last 9 matches at home.
  • Only 3 losses all season for PAOK came this 2020. 0-1 loss and 1-1 draw for PAOK last 2 matches.
  • 2-0 win and 2-2 draw for Panathanaikos in head to heads  this season.
  • 1-1 draw, 2-2, and 2-0 loss for PAOK away v the top 4.
  • On seasonal form, Panathanaikos should not lose.

SPANISH SEGUNDA DIVISION

16:00 - Racing Santander v Lugo - 2.25 Santander

  • 1-1 in the most recent head to head.

Racing Santander - 22nd

  • Only 4 wins. Did win last match.
  • 5 draws and a loss last 6 home matches.
  • Conceded last 4 and last 6 at home.
  • v 11th and lower at home, 6 draws, a loss and a win v 21st.
  • 14 of 19 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Lugo - 20th

  • Draw, 2 wins, 2 draws last 5 matches.
  • In 18 of their last 19 matches, Lugo scored 2 goals only once.
  • 80% of halftime scorelines away were either 1-0 or 0-0.

Conclusions

  • Racing might think they have a shout here if Lugo cannot score that 2nd goal. So a possibility to lay Lugo if they score first but cover the 0-1. Racing are drawing a lot at home v 11th and lower.

20:30 - Zaragoza v Alcorcon - 1.75 Zaragoa

Zaragoza - 2nd

  • Unbeaten in 10 matches.
  • 4 wins and a draw last 5 at home.
  • 6 unbeaten at home.
  • Only 3 home losses.
  • 0-3 win v Alcorcon last time these 2 met.

Alcorcon - 9th

  • No defeat in 15 away.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 away.
  • Not played the top 4 away.
  • Draws v 5th-8th away.
  • 13 of 21 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Alcorcon intrigue. Unbeaten away but draws v 5th-8th away and not yet met the top 4 away.
  • Slightly favour Zaragoza here given the head to head but there is that unknown for Alcorcon. v top 4 away.

SOUTH KOREAN K CLASSIC

08:30 - Ulsan Hyundai Horang-i v Seongnam FC - 1.63 Ulsan

  • Ulsan are unbeaten so far and a great trading side. In 3 of their last 4 matches Ulsan have conceded first and gone on to remain unbeaten.
  • 3 clean sheets in 5 matches for Seongnam this season. Win, Draw, Draw, Win, Loss this season.
  • I'll continue to favour Ulsan here, they look reliable.

11:00 - Jeonbuk Motors v Incheon Utd - 1.24 Jeonbuk Motors

  • 4 wins and a loss this season for Jeonbuk. The loss came via a Jeonbuk red card. They remain reliable. 1-0 and 2-0 at home.
  • 2 0-0's and 3 losses this season for Incheon. They have conceded 6 goals in their last 2 matches.
  • I'm with Jeonbuk here. Along with Ulsan, they look very reliable.