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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, June 13, 2015

Odds taken from www.willhill.com. The Betfair coupons were not up until the day before the matches. There will be price discrepancies so please look at the Betfair odds.

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches.

Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised.

Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are not the pre-market favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds).

Lay the underdog scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market, especially in BANKER matches.

Do note matches where one team is red carded. The opponents do tend to score next more often than not.

13 Jun 17:00 UK Republic of Ireland v Scotland  - 2.25 home

Standout Stats

  • The gaelic derby and what is likely to be an excellent atmosphere in Dublin. Wish I could go!
  • It's a tight Group D with Poland on 11 points, Germany on only 10 points, Scotland on 10 points, and Ireland on 8 points. Scotland and Ireland must take advantage of a currently under-performing Germany who will, though, add 3 points to their tally tonight against Gibraltar.
  • A 1-2 win over Georgia was followed by a 7-0 win over Gibraltar. A 1-1 draw with Germany keeps the Irish in the hunt, but a 1-0 loss away to Scotland and a 1-1 draw with Poland suggests Ireland don't have the forward line to score more than 1 goal against the teams that matter.
  • There is solace at home. Ireland are unbeaten in their last 6 Euro matches, and last 2 at home this campaign v Gib and Poland.
  • The Scots have a tactic. They have been successfully following it in friendlies and it is simple. Win 1-0. A 1-0 win at home v Georgia, 2-2 with Poland away, 1-0 win at home to Ireland and 6-1 v Gibraltar.
  • Away from home, Scotland have conceded 2goals v Poland and Germany. I have already mentioned above that Ireland have difficulty scoring 2 goals.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Ireland at home are a different proposition and are likely to work tactically from defence onward. Ditto Scotland in what is likely to be a long drawn out 0-0. Ireland's taking a point from Germany is what sees these 2 sides competitive in this league. THey must take advantage. I think if this is 0-0 for a long while, that we lay the late 0-0 as 3 points will be oh so precious. Dependent on the odds, 1-0,0-1 correct scores could be a good bet.
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13 Jun 17:00 UK Armenia v Portugal  - 1.44 away

Standout Stats

  • Notorious dodgepots Portugal look a bit short but is the price deserved on form? Let's see.
  • It's a tight Group I between leaders Portugal (9 points), Denmark (7 points) and Albania (7 points).
  • Armenia have been competitive enough without winning this current Euro campaign. 2-1 loss to Denmark, 1-1 draw with Serbia, 1-0 loss to Portugal and 2-1 loss to Albania.
  • This will sound alarm bells for Portugal backers you feel.
  • At home Armenia drew 1-1 with Serbia and are unbeaten in 5 Euros, stretching back to 2011.
  • A shock 1-0 loss to Albania began Portugal's euro campaign. 1-0 wins v Denmark and Armenia and a 2-1 home win v Serbia. The danish win was care of a 90th minute Ronaldo winner. The Armenia win was care of a 72nd minute Ronaldo winner.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • It's a simple equation. If Ronaldo does not function, Portugal do not function. Without him, they would not have those 2 1-0 wins. I think Portugal are very ropey 1.44 favourites (WilliamHill odds as the Betfair coupon is not up yet). I would consider laying them pre-match, better yet if they score first but we may have to wait for that.
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13 Jun 17:00 UK Poland v Georgia  - 1.25 home

Standout Stats

  • Poland are a point above Germany at the top of Group D. Given Germany play Gibraltar, I am sure Poland see this home match v 3 points Georgia as a must win.
  • 3 wins and 2 draws for Poland. 2 score draws v Scotland and Ireland. Wins to nil v the rest. 0-4 away win for Poland in the previous head to head.
  • 4 losses for georgia and a win v Gibraltar. They failed to score in 3 of their last 4 Euro qualifiers.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Poland should win to nil tonight. Lay the 0-0 halftime score. If they score 4 goals away, then they should score before halftime at home.
  • A win to nil means you can speculate on the correct score market. 4-0 starters.
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13 Jun 17:00 UK Finland v Hungary - 2.3 home

Standout Stats

  • Romania and Northern Ireland dominate Group F. Hungary with a win will close the gap on Northern Ireland.
  • Only 1 win for Finland was against Faroe Islands. They only lost 1-0 away to Hungary, part of a run of 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Hungary lost to Northern Ireland.They drew with Romania, beat Faroes and Finland 1-0 and drew 0-0 with Greece.
  • Trouble scoring goals it seems for Hungary.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I will back 0-0 pre-match and hope this is a tight match. Hungary won 1-0 with an 84th minute goal. Hungary have scored 1-1-0 recently so have trouble scoring.
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13 Jun 19:45 UK Gibraltar v Germany  - 1 away

Standout Stats

  • 7-7-3-4-6 conceded by Gibraltar. Germany won 4-0 at home.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • You know the drill with unbackable teams. A big scoreline. I could see Germany possibly surpassing 4-0 today. And of course we expect goals before halftime. It's tight at the top of Group D and goal difference may play a part so expect Germany to rout Gibraltar.
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13 Jun 19:45 UK Northern Ireland v Romania  - 2.37 away

Standout Stats

  • The top 2 meet today in Group F.
  • 4 wins and a loss to Romania for Northern Ireland. In all other matches, NI scored 2 goals.
  • 2 consecutive wins for NI at home, 2-0 and 2-1 v Faroes and Finland. Not the strongest of form.
  • Romania are unbeaten, 4 wins and a draw - all clean sheets in the wins.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Tough to call here, as per the odds. I don't really have an angle in.
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13 Jun 19:45 UK Denmark v Serbia  - 2.15 home

Standout Stats

  • The top 3 in Group I are Portugal (9), Denmark and Albania (7 points) and 1 point for Serbia.
  • In the 4 matches played, both teams scored in 3 matches for Denmark, 2 wins and a 1-1 draw. A 0-1 loss for Denmark v Portugal.
  • 2-1 at home v Armenia and 0-1 loss v Portugal at home for Denmark.
  • Only 1 win for Serbia v Albania was a 3-0. bottom v 2nd bottom.
  • Serbia lost to Denmark 1-3 and 2-1 v Portugal.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Both teams could reasonably score here today. Lay the first goalscorer?
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13 Jun 19:45 UK Faroe Islands v Greece  - 1.33 away

Standout Stats

  • November 2014 saw a 0-1 Faroes win away in Greece.
  • That has relegated Greece to bottom of Group F.A win could take them 4th if Finland lose.
  • The Faroes have only won 2 qualifiers since 1998 so that win against Greece was as rare as an honest politician.
  • 1-0 Faroe defeats to Romania and Hungary in the Euros suggests a real tactic here. Solid defence, try to nick a winner.
  • Greece have had a dire campaign.3 defeats and 2 draws. Their problems? Well, they have scored 0-1-0-0-0.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I wouldn't back Greece with stolen Drachma today. The market is emphatic though. They cannot see Faroe Islands adding to their 2 wins in the Euros since 1998. I would definitely lay Greece if they scored first though. The odds will be short. Their nerves will be shredded a bit , and the Faroes will have the believe knowing they beat them AWAY from home.
  • Strangely though, Greece away from home , have not lost a match in the Euros since 2003.
  • I will back 0-0 pre match here and hope that this match is tight in the early stages, to allow a profitable lay trade. With 3 Euro qualifiers only remaining for Greece, this match is a must win or goodbye really.
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13 Jun 21:00 UK Uruguay v Jamaica  - 1.25 home

Standout Stats

  • Jamaica find themselves in the Copa America and a tough match with Uruguay featuring racist cannibal Luis Suarez.
  • No head to heads between these 2 teams and no previous current Copa America form as I write.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • It's a case of faith in the odds. Jamaica have been ok recently but their opponents have been dire. Think tropical holiday islands!
  • I am with Uruguay today although this might not be as emphatic as the odds suggest. 2-0 perhaps to Uruguay.
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13 Jun 23:30 UK Argentina v Paraguay - 1.3 home

Standout Stats

  • Messi and Suarez return to the fold after Champions League duty.
  • 2-5 to Argentina in the most recent World Cup qualifier in 2013.
  • Argentina have had a solid enough run up to this Copa America with 6 friendly wins and losses v Brazil and Portugal only. A recent 5-0 thrashing of Bolivia was impressive as it was without the 2 mini-maestros.
  • Only 3 wins in 19 for Paraguay in a dis-jointed run in to this competition. The last 5 friendlies have focussed on South American opponents and Paraguay only beat Peru 2-1and indeed lost 2-1 to Peru as well!

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • No current Copa matches played so friendly form is the only guide and it sees an Argentina side in good form and likely to be full of goals. Paraguay are inconsistent as shown by a 2-1 win and 2-1 loss to the same side in consecutive friendlies! I am not sure of any angle in here which would present value.
  • In the expectation of goals, perhaps lay the 0-0 halftime score. It does make sense with the Argentina personnel on show.
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