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I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook and a Zoom/Facebook live chat at 14:30 for the German Bundesliga.

Clive Keeling is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.

Topic: DRT live chat webinar for 13th February 2021

Time: Feb 13, 2021 02:30 PM London

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ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Leicester (Europa League 19th Feb) v Liverpool (Champions League 17th February) - 2.10 Liverpool

Leicester - 3rd

  • Only 2 defeats since the 6th December 2020.
  • 2 consecutive clean sheets came away.
  • Draw, Win, Win, Loss at home.
  • Scored in their last 4 at home.
  • 3-0 loss last head to heads.
  • v the top 5, 2-2 and 2-0 at home.

Liverpool - 4th

  • 2 wins and 2 losses last 4 matches.
  • Scored 1-0-0-0-0-3-3-0-1 goals recently. The 3 goals? Scored in 2 consecutive away wins.
  • Unbeaten away v the top 8. Scored 2+ goals away v 5th-9th.
  • 15 of 22 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Liverpool returned to 2+ goals in their last 2 away wins but that masks a really poor run where they actually failed to score in 5 matches around those 2 3 goal hauls away.
  • This is one of those matches I don't like to trade as it is a top 4 clash. Clouded too by European Club competition?

15:00 - Crystal Palace v Burnley - 2.37 Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace - 13th

  • 2 wins and a loss for Palace recently. The wins came v Newcastle and Wolves.
  • Draw, Won, Loss, Win at home. The loss 2-3 v West Ham.
  • Scored in their last 4 at home.
  • Not played 17th-19th at home. 1 -0 loss last head to head.
  • 9/14 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Burnley - 17th

  • 2 losses and a draw last 3 matches.
  • Loss, Loss, Win, Loss away recently.
  • 6 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches away.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away, 3 at fulltime.
  • 2 wins away were 0-1 v 4th and 11th.
  • 4/5 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Another unappealing match. Strong under 2.5 goals for Burnley away despite scoring goals a plenty at times at home.

17:30 - Man City (Champions League 25th Feb) v Tottenham (Europa League 19th Feb) - 1.33 Man City

  • Too high profile a match for me to research suffice to say that Man City's win v Liverpool was excellent.
  • Tottenham have been poor. Loss, Loss, Loss, Win recently. Not good enough against a City side with 10 wins and 8 clean sheets in those 10 matches.

20:00 - Brighton v Aston Villa - 2.60 Aston Villa

  • The market cannot split these 2 and I suppose it is down to Brighton's improved unbeaten 5 match run, keeping 4 clean sheets and not conceding (or scoring!!!) a 2nd goal.
  • And I suppose the market cannot read Villa. Recent results? Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Loss, Win. 2 recent wins v Southampton and Arsenal were 1-0. In stark contrast, they conceding 2-3-3 goals in defeats.
  • Angles? I must respect the market and remind you that you do not need to trade a match just because it is a Premier League match and on the telly!!

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

15:00 - Aberdeen v St Mirren - 1.95 Aberdeen

Aberdeen - 4th

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in their last 4 matches.
  • 2-1 win and 1-1 draw in head to heads.
  • 2 losses at home outside the top 2 came v newly managered sides.

St Mirren - 6th

  • 3 wins and 2 losses last 5 matches.
  • 5-2-1-2-0 goals scored recently.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away and none at fulltime.
  • v the top 4, only win came v Celtic latest away from home.

Conclusions

  • St Morren's recent goal scoring impresses but they were put in their place by Celtic latest despite beating them 2-1 earlier. Aberdeen are unbeaten in the 2 head to heads with St Mirren but are in poor form. St Mirren tend not to beat the top 4.

15:00 - Dundee Utd v Livingston - 1.95 Livingston

Dundee United - 7th

  • Only 2 wins in 13 matches.
  • 3 draws, 3 losses and a win last 7 matches.
  • Draw, Draw, Loss, Loss at home recently.
  • 1-2 loss and 2-0 loss to Livvy earlier this season.
  • Only 1 win v the top 9 at home came v St Mirren.

Livingston - 5th

  • Well advertised solid form under new manager ended with a 1-2 loss v St Johnstone latest. That was 1 of only 3 occasions under the new manager where Livingston failed to score 2 goals.
  • They were 1.41 favourites last match, and lost.
  • 5 wins and a draw last 6 away matches.
  • 3 consecutive away clean sheets.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away, only once at fulltime.
  • 13/19 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • Unbeaten away v 7th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Will Livingston really lose a 2nd consecutive match under new manager? If you don't think so, then that is the angle. Livingston are 2/2 in head to heads so that is a positive.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.

15:00 - Motherwell v Hamilton - 1.61 Motherwell

Motherwell - 9th

  • Under new manager.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Draw, loss, draw, win recently at home.
  • 13 of 21 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • 0-1 loss and 3-0 loss v Hamilton this season. Very interesting.

Hamilton - 12th

  • Only 5 wins all season and 2 of those wins came v Motherwell.
  • Failed to score in 7 of their last 11 matches.

Conclusions

  • Hamilton have done the double over Motherwell this season. I wasn't expecting that looking at the market. The market thinks Motherwell's 3 wins in 4 matches sees them in a better place.

15:00 - Rangers (Europa League 19th February) v Kilmarnock - 1.12 Rangers

Rangers - 1st

  • Unbeaten.
  • Poor performance latest saw their goal an own goal, and conceding late.
  • 13 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored in their last 24 matches.
  • 4 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • Scored first in 12/13 at home.
  • 2-0 and 0-1 wins last time these 2 met.

Kilmarnock - 10th

  • 6 consecutive losses.
  • 7 losses in 8 away matches.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • No draw in 12 away.
  • 8 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches away.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away, none at fulltime.
  • All losses away v the top 4.

Conclusions

  • It is as obvious as the odds suggest but Rangers were short priced favourites latest and that was very laboured. Kilmarnock are in poor form and should not take advantage of any under performance.
  • If 0-0 at halftime, lay the 2nd half 0-0.

15:00 - Ross County v Hibernian - 1.83 Hibernian

Ross County - 11th

  • Only 3 wins since 27th September 2020.
  • Conceded in their last 7 and last 8 at home.
  • 19/27 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • 8/11 goals scored at home came 1st half.
  • 0-0 and 0-2 win last 2 head to heads.
  • Failed to score in 4/5 home matches v the top 4.

Hibernian - 3rd

  • Unbeaten v 5th and lower away from home.
  • 4 wins and a loss v Rangers recently so hot form.
  • 2 goals scored in those wins.
  • Draw, Win, Win away.

Conclusions

  • I fear for Ross County, now conceding 2 goals in recent home defeats, playing a Hibs side in good form, scoring 2 goals in 4 recent wins. I am firmly with the away side today on seasonal form.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.

SPANISH PRIMEIRA LIGA

13:00 - Granada v Atletico Madrid (Champions League 24th February) - 1.80 Atletico Madrid

Granada - 8th

  • 3 draws and a loss last 4 matches.
  • Loss, Win, Draw at home latest.
  • 6-1 loss to Atl Madrid last head to head.
  • All defeats v the top 3.
  • 8/13 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Atl Madrid - 1st

  • 8 wins and a 2-2 last 9 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away wins.
  • 2+ goals scored last 6 matches, and last 4 away.
  • Only loss came away v 2nd.
  • 6 goals scored last 15 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

  • 24th February for the Champions League for Atl Madrid so they should not be distracted here. The inclusion of Luis Suarez has me more confident of relying on Atl Madrid if they concede. And that's how I enter this match. I expect the away win but they did slip up latest in a 2-2 v Celta Vigo (Suarez scored twice!)

15:15 - Sevilla v Huesca - 1.50 Sevilla

Sevilla (18th Feb Champions League) - 4th

  • Feb 18th sees Sevilla play Dortmund in the Champions League. This Huesca hopes, will distract Sevilla today in the league.
  • 5 wins and a loss v Atl Madrid latest.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • 2+ goals scored last 4 home matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • 0-1 v 17th and 1-1 v 1th at home 0-1 win v Huesca last head to head.

Huesca - 20th

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 1-2 loss to Real Madrid latest saw Huesca score first.
  • Conceded last  away matches.
  • Only win away came v 18th.
  • 14/20 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • If ever Huesca can cause an upset it would be in a pre-Champions League match for the opponents, so don't be surprised if Huesca score first for the 2nd consecutive match. You will have to decide whether normal service will be resumed for Sevilla.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.

17:30 - Eibar v Valladolid - 2.05 Eibar

Eibar - 17th

  • Only 4 wins.
  • No draw in 4 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, 4 at fulltime.
  • 1-2 win v Valladolid earlier this season.
  • v 10th and lower at home, failed to score in 6/7 matches.
  • 8/12 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Valladolid - 18th

  • Only 1 win in 9 matches came away v Getafe, a 0-1.
  • Only 1 loss away v 8th and lower.
  • 64% of goals away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Only 4 wins plays only 1 win in 9 matches. Eibar have a troublesome record v 10th and lower at home, failing to score in 6/7 matches.
  • Not 2 sides I can trust here.

20:00 - Barcelona (Champions League 17th Feb) v Alaves - 1.30 Barcelona

Barcelona - 2nd

  • Wed, 17th February sees Barcelona playing PSG.
  • Ronald 'Koeman' McDonald has been resting Messi in a few recent matches and to his detriment. Team news is a necessity here.
  • 9 wins and 2 score draws last 11 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in the last 10 matches.
  • 6 consecutive wins.
  • Scored in their last 13 and last 10 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored last 5 matches.
  • Only home loss came v 2nd.
  • 1-1 draw last head to head.
  • 2+ goals scored at home v 5th-15th.

Alaves - 16th

  • Only 2 wins in 11 matches came at home.
  • No win in 5 away matches.
  • Only 2 wins v the top 15 came away v 2nd and home v 11th.
  • Scored and conceded in all matches v the top 5.

Conclusions

  • Champions League for Barcelona will influence this match, however subtly. On seasonal form, Barca have 2 goals in them and note Alaves do score and concede so the away side may score today.
  • Team news a must for Barcelona. If I trade Barca, I want Messi and Griezemann playing.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Dortmund (Champions League 18th Feb) v Hoffenheim (Europa League 19th Feb) - 1.5 Dortmund

  • I am not sure how effective seasonal form research will be to this match, featuring 2 sides with European Club competition.
  • What I would remind you is that Dortmund tend to score 2nd half if not scoring first half.

14:30 - Leverkusen (Europa League 19th Feb) v Mainz - 1.44 Leverkusen

Leverkusen - 5th

  • 2 wins in 3 at home the only wins in 8 matches.
  • Last 3 losses were 1-0.
  • Conceded in their last 8 matches and last 6 at home.
  • v 12th and lower home and away, 6 wins and a 0-0.
  • 0-1 win last head to head.

Mainz - 17th

  • Only 3 wins , did win their last 2 home matches.
  • No win in 5 away.
  • Not played 3rd-5th away but lost to 1st and 2nd.
  • 15/21 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Europa League distraction for Leverkusen? They tend to thrive v 12th and lower, scoring 2+ goals. They have been very poor of late but 2 wins in 3 at home is a good sign. Certainly Lay Mainz if they score first but cover the 0-1 as Leverkusen losses recently have been 1-0.

14:30 - Stuttgart v Hertha Berlin - 2.37 Stuttgart

  • 10th v 9th and on the cusp of it being a 2.4 the favourite match.
  • 6 wins plays 4 wins. 2-2, 0-1 loss, 2-2, 2-0 win at home for Stuttgart latest must give them confidence.
  • 5 losses and a 0-0 recently for Hertha Berlin hardly does the same for them.
  • Stuttgart won 0-2 last head to head.
  • Outside of the top 2 at home, Stuttgart have just the one defeat.
  • 9/13 goals scored at home by Stuttgart came 2nd half.
  • No win in 6 away for Hertha.
  • They have beaten 11th and 13th away.
  • 71% of goals scored and 81% of goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • Angles? Sides winning infrequently but a slight nod to Stuttgart on their recent home form last 4 matches. Do note the strong 2nd half goals patterns if it is a quiet first half.

14:30 - Werder Bremen v Freiburg - 2.60 Freiburg

  • Leave this to the in-play stats.

17:30 - Union Berlin v Schalke - 1.75 Union Berlin.

  • Newly promoted v dodgepots. This is a match both teams would eye the 3 points.
  • Union Berlin have 3 losses in 4 matches. and play a Schalke with only one win.
  • Union Berlin though are unbeaten in 9 at home and scored in their last 10 at home.
  • Union beat 16th 5-0 at home, 17th 4-0 at home and play 18th today. 1-1 last head to head.
  • Schalke away do start score drawing v 11th and lower and meet 9th today.
  • Angles? A score draw is best case for Schalke today. Union Berlin, despite recent defeats, remain unbeaten at home in 9 matches and that should ensure a positive result.

ITALIAN SERIA A

14:00 - Torino v Genoa - 2.00 Torino

Torino - 17th

  • 7 draws, a win and a loss last 9 matches.
  • 5 draws and a 2-3 loss at home recently.
  • No win in 10 at home.
  • 1-2 win last head to head.
  • Scored and conceded in 8/10 at home.

Genoa - 12th

  • 4 wins and a draw last 5 matches.
  • 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches.
  • Not played 17th-19th away but beat 16th and 20th away.
  • 10/14 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Genoa are in superb recent form relative to the rest of the season and must think they have a chance here v a struggling Torino. Torino do draw and do score and concede and I would be confident to lay Torino if they scored first. Genoa's clean sheets could keep Torino to a goal maximum, and Torino's score draws could allow Genoa to score.
  • Look for both teams to score. It is a very strong Torino pattern.

17:00 - Napoli v Juventus - 2.15 Juventus

Napoli (Europa League 19th February) - 6th

  • Napoli can throw in the odd howler such as a 1-2 home loss v 10 man newly promoted Spezia. Their last 2 losses came away.
  • 2 consecutive home wins to nil.
  • Scored in their last 8 and last 7 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored last 2 at home.
  • Lost to 1st and 2nd.
  • 8/10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Juventus - Champions League 18th February

  • 6 wins in 7 matches.
  • Failed to score only in their 2 defeats.
  • 7/10 goals conceded away came first half.

Conclusions

  • Messy match. European club competition, 2 high profile sides puts me off. Napoli's form is too sporadic for me to have faith in them, unless the Champions League distracts Juventus...

19:45 - Spezia v AC Milan (Europa League 19th Feb) - 1.50 AC Milan

Spezia - 16th

  • Newly promoted v big hitter.
  • 3 wins last 6 matches.
  • Conceded last 6 at home.
  • 3-0 loss last head to head. All defeats v the top 5 saw them score and concede in 4 of those 5 matches.

AC Milan - 1st

  • 7 wins and 2 defeats last 9 matches.
  • The only times AC Milan failed to score 2 goals, they lost!!
  • 2+ goals scored last 10 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Led at halftime in 9/10 away.
  • 7/ goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Europa League to impact AC Milan? I don't think so. If confidence is to be increased, we need to see Ibrahimovic in the Milan side. 2 goals at least expected of Milan unless Spezia do one of those 'newly promoted at home v big gun shock' performances.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on AC Milan.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

17:45 - Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven (19th Feb Europa League) - 1.25 PSV

Den Haag - 17th

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 2 consecutive home draws.
  • No win in 10 at home.
  • Not beaten a top 13 side home or away.
  • 4-0 loss last head to head.
  • 7/9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

PSV - 2nd

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • 2 wins and a loss last 3 away matches.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 100% wins v 11th and lower.

Conclusions

  • If the Europa league does not impact PSV, they are well in for the win. 100% wins v 11th and lower home and away.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:00 - Groningen v Zwolle - 2.05 Groningen

Groningen - 6th

  • Only 3 defeats since 21st November were 1-0 defeats.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, only once at fulltime.
  • Not played 11th-13th at home but unbeaten home but 100% wins home and away v 11th and lower.
  • 9/13 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

PEC Zwolle - 13th

  • A win and 3 score draws last 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 15 side away but a few score draws.
  • 10/15 goals scored away 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I must be with Groningen today who only lose 1-0 when they lose recently. PEC Zwolle do like the odd score draw away as part of a run of not beating a top 15 side away this season.
  • Both sides are stronger 2nd half goal scorers so lay the 0-0 2nd half.

19:00 - Sparta Rotterdam v Fortuna Sittard - 1.91 Sparta

Sparta - 12th

  • 2 losses and 2 draws last 4 matches.
  • Loss, Loss, Loss, Draw at home recently.
  • Not played 11th - 16th at home. 0-1 win v Fortuna last time these 2 met.
  • 15/19 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Fortuna Sittard - 11th

  • 7 wins, 3 losses and a draw recently. Vastly improved form and when the in-play stats speak for Sittard, sit up and take note.
  • 4 wins and a 1-1 away recently.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 away.
  • Unbeaten away v 8th and lower.
  • 13/17 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I wouldn't be as confident as the market here. Sittard have turned a corner here. And look solid So I will monitor the in-play stats because, as alluded to above, if the in-play stats shout for Sittard, they tend to deliver.

20:00 - Heracles v Ajax (Europa League 19th Feb) - 1.33 Ajax

Heracles - 10th

  • Only 2 losses in 9 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Last 3 wins were 1-0.
  • Not beaten the top 5.

Ajax - 1st

  • 5 consecutive wins.
  • Scored last 16 matches and last 8 away.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 away.
  • All wins bar a 1-1 v 8th and lower home and away.
  • Not conceded first half away.

Conclusions

  • Heracles are in a far better place than the last time these 2 met when they got a pasting. Add in the Europa League element and it may not surprise to see Ajax struggle more than is usual. But their record v 8th and lower is impeccable. All wins bar a 1-1. 3 consecutive wins at home for Heracles may give them hope but their record the top 5 is poor.