Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

See you at 14:30 for a live chat webinar. Juventus kick off at 14:00 interestingly enough, a probably Champions League-influenced kick-off. https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/8099564898734315021 is the link to today's webinar. Please register to attend.

12:30 - Tottenham v Huddersfield - 1.17 Tottenham

  • 3rd place with a win today and on equal parity with Chelsea games wise after today's game.
  • We saw with relegated Huddersfield that there is no 'release of the shackles' improvement as Leicester put them firmly in their place.
  • Post Champions League Tottenham should do the job today. The market expects 3/4 goals today and, as per my sub 1.2 shot strategy, if 0-0 after 20 minutes, consider backing 1-0, 2-0, any unquoted in the halftime score market.

15:00 - Brighton v Bournemouth - 2.4 Brighton

Brighton (16th)

  • Have a game in hand, even 2, over other relegation threatened sides. Brighton might make that count.
  • 2 losses, then 2 wins, then 2 losses.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Brighton have been good at home. They are unbeaten at home v 5th-12th inclusive but have thrown in a couple of poor displays - losses v 14th and 17th.
  • 2-0 loss to Bournemouth earlier this season.

Bournemouth (13th)

  • Only 1 win in 9 came away v Huddersfield. Poor stuff.
  • 10 losses in 11 away matches.
  • No draw in 16 away matches.
  • Losses away v 1st to 9th. Losses away v 14th, 15th, 17th.

Conclusions

  • 2 games in hand for Brighton over Bournemouth. They must make these count. Inconsistent - 2 losses, then 2 wins, then 2 losses.
  • Bournemouth are really poor away from home and Brighton will not get a better chance to get a positive points tally on the board. If Brighton can find the home form v 5th-12th, we may see a positive home result.
  • Welcome to a 2.4 the favourite match! The waters are muddied.

15:00 - Burnley v Cardiff - 1.95 Burnley

Burnley (14th)

  • 4 defeats corrected by 2 consecutive wins.
  • Recent home losses v Palace and Leicester saw Burnley score.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 9 matches.
  • Scored in their last 11 home matches.
  • Unbeaten at home v 16th and lower 1-0, 1-1, 2-1, 1-1 scorelines.
  • 1-2 win v Cardiff earlier this season.

Cardiff (18th)

  • 5 losses in their last 6 matches.
  • 4 losses in 5 away.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away (47% of matches)
  • Only 2 away wins came v 7th and 17th.
  • 8 of 9 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Burnley are a precious 3 points above 16th and 17th and 7 points clear of 3rd bottom Cardiff.
  • Cardiff will still be bottom with a win today but a win is what is required.
  • It has been a tussle for Burnley v 16th and lower, and that is expected today. Cardiff need to stop conceding those 2 goals otherwise they are down. It could be 1-0, 1-1, 2-1, 2-0 (and I would tentatively favour Burnley). Think of this as a good old Relegation six pointer.

15:00 - Fulham v Everton - 1.79 Everton

Fulham (19th)

  • 12 defeats last 13 matches.
  • 13 consecutive matches without a 0-0 at halftime.
  • 9 consecutive defeats.
  • Conceded in their last 13 and last 6 at home (2+ goals in those matches).
  • Not beaten a top 13 side home or away.
  • 1-1 v 7th-10th at home.
  • Not scored that 2nd goal at home v the top 13.

Everton (9th)

  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches.
  • 2 wins in 3 away. No draw in 10 away.
  • 5 wins and a 1-1 home and away v 18th and lower.
  • 16 of 21 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Fulham are down, unless they win all remaining matches and hope other sides suddenly start losing all remaining matches.
  • Everton are hitting a bit of form with 2 wins in 3 away and with a solid record v 18th and lower should not lose today. Do note the Fulham 1-1's v 7th-10th at home. That should be best case for them today.

15:00 - Southampton v Wolves - 2.7 Southampton

  • If the market cannot split these 2, what chance do we, the humble football traders, have?
  • 2.7 the favourite suggests it's too tough to call.

Southampton (17th)

  • 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
  • 2 wins in 3 home matches. Southampton did lose to Liverpool.
  • Scored in their last 11 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home (38%).
  • Form under the new manager? Only 3 clean sheets. Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 home matches.

Wolves (8th)

  • Only 2 losses in 10 matches came away from home.
  • Only 3 clean sheets since 20th October 2018.
  • Conceded in their last 12 away matches.
  • I mentioned this last time. Wolves have not beaten a team 16th and lower - we profited from that last time they were away v 16th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Vital for Southampton who are 5 points clear of 3rd bottom. A win today could see one foot in the 2019/2020 Premier League season.
  • Wolves will not be threatening top 6 and have that poor record v 16th and lower away from home. Tentatively side with the home side not to lose.

17:30 - Man Utd v West Ham - 1.43 Man Utd

  • Post Champions League for Man Utd and post mauling from Chelsea for West Ham.

Man Utd (6th)

  • Only 2 losses under Ole have come away from home last 2 away matches.
  • 2+ goals scored in 6 matches at home under Ole.
  • 7 of the last 8 matches saw at least a goal before halftime.

West Ham (11th)

  • 6 losses last 7 away matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches, 2-0 defeats.
  • No win in 7 away.
  • Conceded in their last 8 away.
  • 5 defeats and a 1-1 away v 8th and higher.

Conclusions

  • You'd have to favour Man Utd here given West Ham away are so poor. Man Utd, if keeping their 2+ goals at home under Ole, should suffer West Ham another 2-0 loss or thereabouts.

ITALIAN SERIA A

14:00 - Spal v Juventus - 1.84 Juventus

Spal (16th)

  • 3 wins in 4 matches includes a win v Roma and Lazio at home. Doing their best to ensure survival but still bottom 3.
  • Scored in their last 4 at home.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home (47% of matches).
  • Not played the bottom 2 at home but lost to all top 3 played.
  • Wins at home v 4th, 6th and 7th.
  • 10 of 14 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Juventus (1st)

  • 3 consecutive wins after the solitary loss to Genoa.
  • Ronaldo in the squad mid week in the Champions League and will be a boost if returning. Check team news.
  • Moise Kean an able replacement.
  • Only failed to score in that Genoa defeat.
  • 100% wins home and away v 15th and lower.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 12 away matches.
  • 16 goals scored last 1/2 hour of away matches.

Conclusions

  • Giant killing for survival - the 2 Roman clubs done in the last 2 home matches. Now a real test v Juventus.
  • Spal have not beaten the top 3 yet - can they turn that around? Remember that they have beaten Roma and Lazio at home - superb form.
  • Juventus tend to score 2 goals away - that may cost Spal another giant killing win.
  • Spal have a 50/50 record with 0-0's at halftime so no surprises if 0-0 at halftime but big surprise if 0-0 full time.

17:00 - Roma v Udinese - 1.53 Roma

Roma (6th)

  • Only 2 wins in 6 matches.
  • Only 2 home defeats.
  • No win in 2 at home.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 10 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 8 wins, a loss and 2 draws at home v 7th and lower.
  • 2+ goals scored at home in all bar 1 v 7th and lower.

Udinese (15th)

  • 4 recent wins all came at home.
  • 4 losses last 5 away.
  • No win in 11 away.
  • Conceded in their last 5 away.
  • Only 1 win away v bottom of the league.
  • 9 of 12 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Poor recent form for Roma but when meeting 7th and lower at home, they tend to win and score 2 goals so that should be the angle today, particularly against a Udinese with only 1 win away v bottom of the league.

17:30 - AC Milan v Lazio - 2.58 AC Milan

  • A great match to watch but a market who cannot split these 2 sides.

AC Milan (5th)

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • 2 recent losses came away.
  • Scored in their last 5 at home.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v 4th and lower. 1-1 last time these 2 met.

Lazio (7th)

  • Only 1 loss in 6 was a shock 1-0 loss v SPAL. It shone a light on Lazio's inability to score that 2nd goal consistently away.
  • 1-1-1-1-1-0 goals scored recently away is a concern.
  • Only 1 win away v the top 13 came away v 3rd.

Conclusions

  • 2.58 tells us the market expects an unclear result. On seasonal form, Lazio might be layable here if they score first given that consistent inability to score 2 goals. Add to that the fact that Lazio have only 1 win away v the top 13.

SPANISH LA LIGA

12:00 - Espanyol v Alaves - 1.84 Espanyol

Espanyol (13th)

  • Only 2 losses in 10 matches came v Sevilla and Barcelona.
  • 4 consecutive 0-0's at halftime were not 0-0 at fulltime.
  • Conceded in their last 7 matches and last 6 at home.
  • 2 wins home and away v the top 10 came at home v 6th and 8th.

Alaves (7th)

  • 2 losses and a draw last 3 away matches.
  • Conceded in their last 6 and last 7 away matches.
  • Only 1 win away v 15th and higher.
  • Did not score a 2nd goal away v the top 17.

Conclusions

  • Alaves may be 7th but away from home they have not scored that 2nd goal v top 17 which may compromise them if they score. An angle? Lay Alaves if they score first?

15:15 - Huesca v Barcelona - 1.64 Barcelona

Huesca (20th)

  • Only 5 wins all season.
  • Are still in with a chance of survival but matches are running out.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 7 matches with only 1 win. 2 consecutive score draws.
  • No 0-0 at halftime since 27th January 2019.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 5 matches.
  • 7 0-1 defeats at halftime at home.
  • All defeats home and away v the top 3.
  • 13 of 18 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Barcelona (1st)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • 7 wins in 8 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • No defeat in 19 and in 12 away.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 5 matches.
  • 2-4-3-3-8 goals scored home and away v 18th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Huesca may get on the score sheet but will need a fatigued Barcelona to turn up. Barca tend to score 3+ goals v the strugglers and are undefeated in 19.
  • Strugglers can get the unexpected result but on form I cannot see it.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

17:30 - Atletico Madrid v Celta Vigo - 1.4 Atl Madrid

Atl Madrid (2nd)

  • Only 5 defeats all season.
  • 7 wins in 8 matches at home.
  • 9 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime in 5 matches.
  • Scored in their last 15 at home.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home (53%).
  • All wins bar a draw at home v 4th and lower.
  • All clean sheets bar 1 at home v 9th and lower.

Celta Vigo (16th)

  • 2 recent wins came at home.
  • No win in 8 away matches.
  • All defeats away v the top 5.

Conclusions

  • Celta Vigo tend to concede 2+ goals v the top 4 away and with no win in 8 away matches, it is tough to see them breaking their duck v 2nd in the league.
  • Atl Madrid could have a 0-0 at halftime. That is not a surprise. They have had a tendency to score 2nd half, and the trigger point us usually the 60 minute marker.
  • It should be a clean sheet win.

19:45 - Sevilla v Betis - 1.76 Sevilla

Sevilla (5th)

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Unbeaten at home v 7th and lower with 8 wins and 2 draws.

Real Betis (9th)

  • Scored and conceded last 4 matches with just one win.
  • Scored last 8 matches.
  • Only 1 win away v top 11 came v 1st 3-4.
  • Failed to score in all bar that Barca win away v the top 8.
  • 11 of 15 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Betis have trouble even scoring v the top 8 which should put them on the back foot against a Sevilla side unbeaten at home v 7th and lower with 80% wins.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Werder Bremen v Freiburg - 1.63 Werder Bremen

Werder Bremen (8th)

  • Unbeaten in 11 matches, scoring and conceding in 9 of those 11 matches.
  • 10% scoring record.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 5 wins and 3 draws at home v 10th and lower, of course scoring and conceding in all bar one of those matches.

Freiburg (13th)

  • Only 2 wins in 11 matches came at home.
  • 3 draws and 2 defeats last 5 away.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime away (21%).
  • Only 2 away wins v 6th and 17th.
  • Scored 2 goals only once away v top 15.

Conclusions

  • We profited well relying on Werder to score as they do all season, so watch out for that today. The market is right here. Werder in very solid form, scoring and conceding in 5 wins and 3 draws at home v 10th and lower.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

14:30 - Hannover v Mgladbach - 1.66 Mgladbach

Hannover (18th)

  • 11 losses and a win last 12 matches.
  • 8 losses in their last 9 home matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No draw in 13 at home.
  • All defeats at home v top 11 bar 1.

Mgladbach (5th)

  • Only 1 win in 8 did come away.
  • Scored in their last 6 away.
  • Not played the bottom 3 away but are unbeaten home and away v 14th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Mgladbach are a little hit and miss but clearly against 14th and lower they are consistent in remaining unbeaten. They should really eye the win today.
  • Lay any late draw.

14:30 - Stuttgart v Leverkusen - 1.81 Leverkusen

Stuttgart (16th)

  • Only 5 wins all season.
  • Scored and conceded last 8 at home with just the 2 wins.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 15 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Ok at home. Only 2 losses v 12th and 14th v 7th and lower.
  • 2-0 loss to Leverkusen earlier this season.

Leverkusen (9th)

  • 3 consecurtive defeats.
  • 2 defeats in 3 away albeit they did come v the Hoff and Dortmund.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Scored in their last 10 and last 8 at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 10th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Leverkusen can end a poor recent run which does have this context. They are unbeaten home and away v 10th and lower so have obviously lost to better teams than Stuttgart recently.
  • Both teams could score today and I would certainly look to lay Stiuttgart if they lead.

14:30 - RB Leipzig v Wolfsburg - 1.61 Leipzig

Leipzig (3rd)

  • Only 5 losses all season.
  • 7 wins in their last 10 matches.
  • 3 draws and a win last 4 at home.
  • Only home loss v 2nd at home.

Wolfsburg (6th)

  • 2 consecutive away defeats v 1st and 2nd and play 3rd today.
  • Beat Leipzig 1-0 earlier this season and did beat 4th and 5th away.

Conclusions

  • I cannot immediately dismiss the Wolf. Yes they lost to 1st and 2nd away last 2 matches but did beat Leipzig earlier this season and have beaten 4th and 5th away.
  • In-play stats may see us clear.

17:30 - Dortmund v Mainz - 1.31 Dortmund

Dortmund (2nd)

  • Big blow to title hopes with a loss v Bayern last match but are still only one point behind.
  • 8 wins in 9 matches at home.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches and that included the last match.
  • No defeat in 14 at home, scoring 2+ goals in those matches.

Mainz (12th)

  • 7 losses and 2 wins last 9 matches.
  • 5 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 8 away matches.
  • 6 losses and a draw away v the top 9.

Conclusions

  • We should expect 2 goals at least from Dortmund today and you can bet they'll be keen on the win. They are still in the title race.