Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Live chat 14:30 today
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/4253424838853309698
is the link. Lots of dead rubbers will require in-play stats to see if one, or both, teams are up for it.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP PLAY-OFF FIRST LEG

17:15 - Middlesbrough v Aston Villa - 2.54 Boro

  • Another tough to call play-off match. I tend towards 0-0 at halftime so would back 0-0 pre-match and hope the fear of conceding a goal keeps this first leg tight.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Bayern Munich v Stuttgart - 1.21 Bayern

  • Bayern tend to win head to heads.
  • In 3 recent matches since winning the title, Bayern have conceded first and gone on to score 3-4-5 goals.
  • They do play a Stuttgart in fine recent form but with 7 defeats and a 0-1 away v top 9 teams.
  • Bayern seem reliant even when they don't need to win. Keep the faith today.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home suggests laying the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • We should expect 2 goals bare minimum from Bayern Munich today.

14:30 - Freiburg v Augsburg - 1.98 Freiburg

  • Freiburg are only 3 points above the relegation zone. A win or draw guarantees their Bundesliga safety.
  • They play an Augsburg side already safe from relegation.
  • 6 defeats in 7 matches suggests Freiburg need a bit of luck today.
  • 3 consecutive home losses ended with a 3-2 win v Koln.
  • Freiburg have a surprising good set of home form stats. Only 2 home losses outside of the top 2.6 draws though, 4 of which were 0-0.
  • They would take a 0-0 today of course.
  • Augsburg have nothing to play for.Win Win Win Draw Loss Draw v 12th and lower away though sees good form.
  • I would have to side with the team with need and expect Freiburg not to lose.

14:30 - Hamburg v Mgladbach - 2.32 Hamburg

  • Hamburg are relegated. Mgladbach have nothing to play for. This is a dead rubber. Hamburg's last match at home in the Bundesliga for a while.

14:30 - Hertha Berlin v RB Leipzig - 1.84 RB Leipzig


14:30 - Hoffenheim v Dortmund - 2.32 Hoffenheim

  • The Hoff will guarantee 4th spot and European club competition football with a win today v a Dortmund side likely to stay 3rd on goal difference at the very least.
  • 4 consecutive wins for the Hoff at home, scoring in their last 16 at home suggests we'll get at least a goal from them today.
  • Indeed they have scored 2+ goals in their last 4 at home.
  • 2-0 home wins v 1st and 2nd should strengthen Hoff's confidence.
  • 24 of 35 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 11 of 15 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • Only 2 wins in 6 for Dortmund came at home. 1-1-0-0-1 goals scored away recently. Poor stuff.
  • No win away v top 8 suggests the Hoff should feel even more confident of getting a result.
  • Dortmund should retain their top 4 berth given the positive goal difference with Leverkusen in 6th. Today's match should be a battle between the Hoff and Leverkusen for that one remaining vacant top spot.
  • On season-long form, we'd have to plump for the home team here and lay any Dortmund lead given their 1-1-0-0-1 goals away recently and winless record v top 8 away.

14:30 - Leverkusen v Hannover - 1.22 Leverkusen

  • A must win for Leverkusen in order to challenge for a top 4 spot with Hoffenheim who have a tough match hosting Dortmund.
  • That is the sole reason for such warm odds for Leverkusen who failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches. The matches they did score in? They scored 8 goals in 2 matches.Welcome to the world of Bayer!
  • Hannover have no win in 11 away matches. They have conceded in their last 18 matches and last 15 away.
  • Hannover have scored in 8/10 matches away v top 12 so may score today. The expectation is that they will not win if scoring.

14:30 - Mainz v Werder Bremen - 2.42 Mainz

  • This is a dead rubber, 2 teams thankful that their recent runs have ensured survival in the top flight.

14:30 - Schalke v Eintracht Frankfurt - 2.58 Schalke

  • Take away Bayern Munich and their money, and Schalke are the best team in Germany. 2nd place was a surprise to some.
  • Frankfurt are safe in 7th too. They could get a top 5 berth, but does that carry any prizes with it? If not then this is a dead rubber......
  • Unless you remember, folks, that Schalke have scored in each of their last 27 matches. Yes, even when down to 10 men and 0-1 down too!
  • Let that be your last hurrah angle into this match.

14:30 - Wolfsburg v FC Koln - 1.68 Wolfsburg

  • A huge incentive for the Wolf today. They are at home, playing a relegated side. They have a better goal difference than Freiburg. The Wolf must win and hope Freiburg lose in order to stay up. The Wolf are 3 points shy of Freiburg.
  • Their form is quite appalling. Only 2 wins in 19 matches came away from home.
  • 1-1-1-1-1-0-0-1 goals scored at home recently. Koln do have a goal in the locker (if up for the match) so 1 goal may not be enough.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 8th and lower for the Wolf sees 6 draws. Therein lies the problem for them. Leaking points but not losing.
  • FC Koln have nothing to play for. Only 2 away losses but v bottom 3, they beat the Wolf 1-0 earlier this season, and won 0-2 v Hamburg away.
  • FC Koln have scored and conceded in their last 5 matches which brings me back to my point. The Wolf must somehow score 2 goals today to help get their 3 points incase Freiburg lose. They don't seem capable.

SPANISH LA LIGA

15:15 - Sociedad v Leganes - 1.41 Sociedad

  • 1-1 and 1-0 Leganes last 2 head to heads.
  • This is effectively a dead rubber. Leganes cannot be dragged into the relegation zone, Sociedad have little to gain by 2 wins.
  • 5-3-2-1-5-3-3 goals scored by Sociedad recently at home and this being the last home match of the season, the market is certainly warm towards them.
  • Leganes have not had an away win since 28th October 2017.
  • Logically (if you average about 4 goals a game through your last 3 games) we should expect at least a goal before halftime? Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

17:30 - Betis v Sevilla - 2.66 Sevilla

  • 1-2 Sevilla and 3-5 Betis last 2 head to heads.
  • Neither side can break into that top 4 spot so this is a dead rubber.
  • This is Betis last home match of the season.
  • Coming off the back of 7 wins and a 0-0, Betis lost their last match but at home it's 4 consecutive wins.
  • Betis at home have only lost 1 match v 6th and lower, and scored 2 goals at least in 11 matches.
  • 22 of Betis 33 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 2 consecutive wins for Sevilla came at home.
  • No win in 4 away for them.
  • All defeats away v top 17 for Sevilla bar wins v 6th, 8th, 9th, 15th.
  • Yes, this is a dead rubber, but on a reading of the form, Betis could threaten 2 goals at least today which suggests laying Sevilla if Sevilla score.
  • If 0-0 or 0-1 at halftime, fear not, Betis score a shedload at home 2nd half.

17:30 - Girona v Valencia - 2.58 Girona

  • 2-1 Valencia last head to head.
  • Another dead rubber. Girona are safe. Valencia can get 3rd with 2 wins and 2 defeats for Real Madrid but they are guaranteed 4th place.
  • Only 1 win in 8 for Girona. No win in 5 for Valencia. End of the season feel from both clubs?
  • All Valencia defeats this season, bar 1, came v the top 10 - Girona are 9th.
  • Girona at home drew 2-2 v Atl Madrid and beat Real Madrid 2-1 so can give the top 4 a game.
  • But Girona have only 2 wins at home v top 11 sides.
  • A match I cannot get a handle on. In-play stats may reveal all.

17:30 - Eibar v Las Palmas - 1.42 Eibar

  • 8th v 19th in another dead rubber. The bottom 3 are relegated.
  • Only 3 wins in 13 matches for Eibar, 2 were 1-0 only.
  • Eibar failed to score in their last 3 at home. This poor form suggests that Las Palmas form must be dire if Eibar are such short priced favourites.
  • No win in 14 and in 16 matches away for Las Palmas answers that.
  • Eibar have conceded in their last 11 matches and last 5 away.
  • Las Palmas failed to score in all away matches v the top 9 and play 10th - they lost all of those matches.
  • Eibar are unbeaten at home v 15th and lower, and are unbeaten home and away v bottom 4.
  • Home win expected and possibly to nil IF Eibar are still up for it. And why shouldn't they be? This is their last home match of the season.

17:30 - Getafe v Atletico Madrid - 2.78 Atletico Madrid

  • Atl Madrid can still lose 2nd place IF they were bothered about it. They are guaranteed top 4 and have the small matter of a Europa League Final with Marseille on 16th May.
  • Watch out for Madrid team changes. The big players have been rested of late.
  • 3 defeats, a draw and a 0-1 v Alaves away from home does see Atl Madrid distracted. In contrast, Getafe have 4 wins and a 1-1 recently.
  • Getafe have scored v top 4 at home this season so we could see a goal from them, albeit that 2nd goal hasn't materialised v the top 4.
  • Atl Madrid interestingly conceded 2 goals v 6th, 7th and 9th away and lost only one of those matches. Getafe are........8th.
  • We may see a surprise here today as Atl Madrid have nothing really to play for and the Europa League Final will play on their minds. I would oppose any Madrid lead here today.

17:30 - Deportivo v Villarreal - 1.99 Villareal

  • 0-0, 0-0, 1-1 last 3 head to heads.
  • Depor are down. Villareal cannot reach top 4.
  • Only 1 loss in 6 for Depor saw a spirited fight to stave off relegation but the points gap to 4th bottom was too great.
  • 3 consecutive home wins for Villareal Last away match was a loss v Barcelona.
  • Only 4 wins away v 5th and lower for Villareal sees poor away form. Only 1 win at home for Depor v the top 12.
  • No strong angles for me. Inplay stats will reveal all.

17:30 - Alaves v Athletic Bilbao - 2.68 Alaves

  • Dead rubber + 2.68 odds for the favourite = no thanks.

17:30 - Real Madrid v Celta Vigo - 1.38 Real Madrid

  • 2-2, 1-4 Real and 2-2 last 3 head to heads.
  • 2nd place is still possible for Real Madrid.....if they want it. They are guaranteed a top 4 finish.
  • The Champions League Final is on the 26th May so may not be a distraction with 2 weeks interval.

Real Madrid (3rd)

  • Only 2 defeats since 21st January 2018. One came last match.
  • Conceded 2 goals in each of their last 2 matches and play a side who have had 2 2-2's against them recently.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 11 wins and 2 draws v 7th and lower at home.
  • Scored 2+ goals in all bar 2 of those matches.
  • 14 of 20 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Celta Vigo (12th)

  • 5 draws in their last 8 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 9 matches.
  • v top 9 away, all defeats bar a 2-2 with Barcelona.

Conclusions

  • Ronaldo is out, Bale returns. Real should not be too impacted by the Big Winker's absence.
  • On form, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but that will be minus Ronaldo.
  • On form, Celta struggle v top 9 away, best case will likely be a score draw.
  • Real Madrid, on form, should be scoring 2 goals at least.

ITALIAN SERIA A

17:00 - Benevento v Genoa - 2.44 Benevento

  • Benevento are relegated. Genoa are safe. This is Benevento's last Italian Seria A match at home.
  • 4 wins and 2 score draws at home for Benevento. We may see some fun and games today. Wins at home v 9th, 16th, 17th and 19th. Genoa are 11th.
  • 8 wins and a 1-1 for Genoa home and away v 16th and lower suggests ordinarily they cope with a team such as Benevento.
  • I would take a chance today and side with Benevento not to lose and to score 2+ goals. A long shot but they could give Genoa a game infront of home support.

19:45 - Inter v Sassuolo - 1.17 Inter

  • Sassuolo have won 4 of the last 5 head to heads.
  • A top 4 place is at stake for Inter Milan who have 2 matches in which to wrestle it from Lazio's grasp.

Inter (5th)

  • 2 points shy of 4th place. Inter must win.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches. Only recent loss v Juventus.
  • Only 3 defeats since 30th December 2017.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home (33%).
  • 11 wins, 2 draws and a loss at home v teams below them in the league.
  • 22 of 36 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Sassulo (12th)

  • Only 1 loss in 10 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Scored 2 goals only twice in 20 matches.
  • Scored in last 10 and last 6 away.
  • Only 1 away win v top 13.

Conclusions

  • Sassuolo look layable if scoring first. They rarely score that 2nd goal.
  • A must win for Inter who do have a good win record v teams below them in the league.
  • Sassuolo have been a royal pain to the likes of Napoli (1-1) and AC Milan (1-1).
  • Score draw though looks best case for them today.
  • The value given Sassuolo's solid recent record is in laying Inter Milan from the start at 1.18. Needs must though for Inter who have those 11 wins at home v teams below them in the league.