Live chat 14:30 today
is the link. Lots of dead rubbers will require in-play stats to see if one, or both, teams are up for it.
ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP PLAY-OFF FIRST LEG
17:15 - Middlesbrough v Aston Villa - 2.54 Boro
- Another tough to call play-off match. I tend towards 0-0 at halftime so would back 0-0 pre-match and hope the fear of conceding a goal keeps this first leg tight.
14:30 - Bayern Munich v Stuttgart - 1.21 Bayern
- Bayern tend to win head to heads.
- In 3 recent matches since winning the title, Bayern have conceded first and gone on to score 3-4-5 goals.
- They do play a Stuttgart in fine recent form but with 7 defeats and a 0-1 away v top 9 teams.
- Bayern seem reliant even when they don't need to win. Keep the faith today.
- Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home suggests laying the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
- We should expect 2 goals bare minimum from Bayern Munich today.
14:30 - Freiburg v Augsburg - 1.98 Freiburg
- Freiburg are only 3 points above the relegation zone. A win or draw guarantees their Bundesliga safety.
- They play an Augsburg side already safe from relegation.
- 6 defeats in 7 matches suggests Freiburg need a bit of luck today.
- 3 consecutive home losses ended with a 3-2 win v Koln.
- Freiburg have a surprising good set of home form stats. Only 2 home losses outside of the top 2.6 draws though, 4 of which were 0-0.
- They would take a 0-0 today of course.
- Augsburg have nothing to play for.Win Win Win Draw Loss Draw v 12th and lower away though sees good form.
- I would have to side with the team with need and expect Freiburg not to lose.
14:30 - Hamburg v Mgladbach - 2.32 Hamburg
- Hamburg are relegated. Mgladbach have nothing to play for. This is a dead rubber. Hamburg's last match at home in the Bundesliga for a while.
14:30 - Hertha Berlin v RB Leipzig - 1.84 RB Leipzig
14:30 - Hoffenheim v Dortmund - 2.32 Hoffenheim
- The Hoff will guarantee 4th spot and European club competition football with a win today v a Dortmund side likely to stay 3rd on goal difference at the very least.
- 4 consecutive wins for the Hoff at home, scoring in their last 16 at home suggests we'll get at least a goal from them today.
- Indeed they have scored 2+ goals in their last 4 at home.
- 2-0 home wins v 1st and 2nd should strengthen Hoff's confidence.
- 24 of 35 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
- 11 of 15 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
- Only 2 wins in 6 for Dortmund came at home. 1-1-0-0-1 goals scored away recently. Poor stuff.
- No win away v top 8 suggests the Hoff should feel even more confident of getting a result.
- Dortmund should retain their top 4 berth given the positive goal difference with Leverkusen in 6th. Today's match should be a battle between the Hoff and Leverkusen for that one remaining vacant top spot.
- On season-long form, we'd have to plump for the home team here and lay any Dortmund lead given their 1-1-0-0-1 goals away recently and winless record v top 8 away.
14:30 - Leverkusen v Hannover - 1.22 Leverkusen
- A must win for Leverkusen in order to challenge for a top 4 spot with Hoffenheim who have a tough match hosting Dortmund.
- That is the sole reason for such warm odds for Leverkusen who failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches. The matches they did score in? They scored 8 goals in 2 matches.Welcome to the world of Bayer!
- Hannover have no win in 11 away matches. They have conceded in their last 18 matches and last 15 away.
- Hannover have scored in 8/10 matches away v top 12 so may score today. The expectation is that they will not win if scoring.
14:30 - Mainz v Werder Bremen - 2.42 Mainz
- This is a dead rubber, 2 teams thankful that their recent runs have ensured survival in the top flight.
14:30 - Schalke v Eintracht Frankfurt - 2.58 Schalke
- Take away Bayern Munich and their money, and Schalke are the best team in Germany. 2nd place was a surprise to some.
- Frankfurt are safe in 7th too. They could get a top 5 berth, but does that carry any prizes with it? If not then this is a dead rubber......
- Unless you remember, folks, that Schalke have scored in each of their last 27 matches. Yes, even when down to 10 men and 0-1 down too!
- Let that be your last hurrah angle into this match.
14:30 - Wolfsburg v FC Koln - 1.68 Wolfsburg
- A huge incentive for the Wolf today. They are at home, playing a relegated side. They have a better goal difference than Freiburg. The Wolf must win and hope Freiburg lose in order to stay up. The Wolf are 3 points shy of Freiburg.
- Their form is quite appalling. Only 2 wins in 19 matches came away from home.
- 1-1-1-1-1-0-0-1 goals scored at home recently. Koln do have a goal in the locker (if up for the match) so 1 goal may not be enough.
- Only 1 loss at home v 8th and lower for the Wolf sees 6 draws. Therein lies the problem for them. Leaking points but not losing.
- FC Koln have nothing to play for. Only 2 away losses but v bottom 3, they beat the Wolf 1-0 earlier this season, and won 0-2 v Hamburg away.
- FC Koln have scored and conceded in their last 5 matches which brings me back to my point. The Wolf must somehow score 2 goals today to help get their 3 points incase Freiburg lose. They don't seem capable.
SPANISH LA LIGA
15:15 - Sociedad v Leganes - 1.41 Sociedad
- 1-1 and 1-0 Leganes last 2 head to heads.
- This is effectively a dead rubber. Leganes cannot be dragged into the relegation zone, Sociedad have little to gain by 2 wins.
- 5-3-2-1-5-3-3 goals scored by Sociedad recently at home and this being the last home match of the season, the market is certainly warm towards them.
- Leganes have not had an away win since 28th October 2017.
- Logically (if you average about 4 goals a game through your last 3 games) we should expect at least a goal before halftime? Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
17:30 - Betis v Sevilla - 2.66 Sevilla
- 1-2 Sevilla and 3-5 Betis last 2 head to heads.
- Neither side can break into that top 4 spot so this is a dead rubber.
- This is Betis last home match of the season.
- Coming off the back of 7 wins and a 0-0, Betis lost their last match but at home it's 4 consecutive wins.
- Betis at home have only lost 1 match v 6th and lower, and scored 2 goals at least in 11 matches.
- 22 of Betis 33 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
- 2 consecutive wins for Sevilla came at home.
- No win in 4 away for them.
- All defeats away v top 17 for Sevilla bar wins v 6th, 8th, 9th, 15th.
- Yes, this is a dead rubber, but on a reading of the form, Betis could threaten 2 goals at least today which suggests laying Sevilla if Sevilla score.
- If 0-0 or 0-1 at halftime, fear not, Betis score a shedload at home 2nd half.
17:30 - Girona v Valencia - 2.58 Girona
- 2-1 Valencia last head to head.
- Another dead rubber. Girona are safe. Valencia can get 3rd with 2 wins and 2 defeats for Real Madrid but they are guaranteed 4th place.
- Only 1 win in 8 for Girona. No win in 5 for Valencia. End of the season feel from both clubs?
- All Valencia defeats this season, bar 1, came v the top 10 - Girona are 9th.
- Girona at home drew 2-2 v Atl Madrid and beat Real Madrid 2-1 so can give the top 4 a game.
- But Girona have only 2 wins at home v top 11 sides.
- A match I cannot get a handle on. In-play stats may reveal all.
17:30 - Eibar v Las Palmas - 1.42 Eibar
- 8th v 19th in another dead rubber. The bottom 3 are relegated.
- Only 3 wins in 13 matches for Eibar, 2 were 1-0 only.
- Eibar failed to score in their last 3 at home. This poor form suggests that Las Palmas form must be dire if Eibar are such short priced favourites.
- No win in 14 and in 16 matches away for Las Palmas answers that.
- Eibar have conceded in their last 11 matches and last 5 away.
- Las Palmas failed to score in all away matches v the top 9 and play 10th - they lost all of those matches.
- Eibar are unbeaten at home v 15th and lower, and are unbeaten home and away v bottom 4.
- Home win expected and possibly to nil IF Eibar are still up for it. And why shouldn't they be? This is their last home match of the season.
17:30 - Getafe v Atletico Madrid - 2.78 Atletico Madrid
- Atl Madrid can still lose 2nd place IF they were bothered about it. They are guaranteed top 4 and have the small matter of a Europa League Final with Marseille on 16th May.
- Watch out for Madrid team changes. The big players have been rested of late.
- 3 defeats, a draw and a 0-1 v Alaves away from home does see Atl Madrid distracted. In contrast, Getafe have 4 wins and a 1-1 recently.
- Getafe have scored v top 4 at home this season so we could see a goal from them, albeit that 2nd goal hasn't materialised v the top 4.
- Atl Madrid interestingly conceded 2 goals v 6th, 7th and 9th away and lost only one of those matches. Getafe are........8th.
- We may see a surprise here today as Atl Madrid have nothing really to play for and the Europa League Final will play on their minds. I would oppose any Madrid lead here today.
17:30 - Deportivo v Villarreal - 1.99 Villareal
- 0-0, 0-0, 1-1 last 3 head to heads.
- Depor are down. Villareal cannot reach top 4.
- Only 1 loss in 6 for Depor saw a spirited fight to stave off relegation but the points gap to 4th bottom was too great.
- 3 consecutive home wins for Villareal Last away match was a loss v Barcelona.
- Only 4 wins away v 5th and lower for Villareal sees poor away form. Only 1 win at home for Depor v the top 12.
- No strong angles for me. Inplay stats will reveal all.
17:30 - Alaves v Athletic Bilbao - 2.68 Alaves
- Dead rubber + 2.68 odds for the favourite = no thanks.
17:30 - Real Madrid v Celta Vigo - 1.38 Real Madrid
- 2-2, 1-4 Real and 2-2 last 3 head to heads.
- 2nd place is still possible for Real Madrid.....if they want it. They are guaranteed a top 4 finish.
- The Champions League Final is on the 26th May so may not be a distraction with 2 weeks interval.
Real Madrid (3rd)
- Only 2 defeats since 21st January 2018. One came last match.
- Conceded 2 goals in each of their last 2 matches and play a side who have had 2 2-2's against them recently.
- Scored and conceded in their last 6 matches.
- 4 0-0's at halftime at home.
- 11 wins and 2 draws v 7th and lower at home.
- Scored 2+ goals in all bar 2 of those matches.
- 14 of 20 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
Celta Vigo (12th)
- 5 draws in their last 8 matches.
- Only 1 win in 9 matches.
- v top 9 away, all defeats bar a 2-2 with Barcelona.
- Ronaldo is out, Bale returns. Real should not be too impacted by the Big Winker's absence.
- On form, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but that will be minus Ronaldo.
- On form, Celta struggle v top 9 away, best case will likely be a score draw.
- Real Madrid, on form, should be scoring 2 goals at least.
ITALIAN SERIA A
17:00 - Benevento v Genoa - 2.44 Benevento
- Benevento are relegated. Genoa are safe. This is Benevento's last Italian Seria A match at home.
- 4 wins and 2 score draws at home for Benevento. We may see some fun and games today. Wins at home v 9th, 16th, 17th and 19th. Genoa are 11th.
- 8 wins and a 1-1 for Genoa home and away v 16th and lower suggests ordinarily they cope with a team such as Benevento.
- I would take a chance today and side with Benevento not to lose and to score 2+ goals. A long shot but they could give Genoa a game infront of home support.
19:45 - Inter v Sassuolo - 1.17 Inter
- Sassuolo have won 4 of the last 5 head to heads.
- A top 4 place is at stake for Inter Milan who have 2 matches in which to wrestle it from Lazio's grasp.
- 2 points shy of 4th place. Inter must win.
- 3 wins in 4 matches. Only recent loss v Juventus.
- Only 3 defeats since 30th December 2017.
- 6 0-0's at halftime at home (33%).
- 11 wins, 2 draws and a loss at home v teams below them in the league.
- 22 of 36 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
- Only 1 loss in 10 matches.
- 3 wins in 4 matches.
- Scored 2 goals only twice in 20 matches.
- Scored in last 10 and last 6 away.
- Only 1 away win v top 13.
- Sassuolo look layable if scoring first. They rarely score that 2nd goal.
- A must win for Inter who do have a good win record v teams below them in the league.
- Sassuolo have been a royal pain to the likes of Napoli (1-1) and AC Milan (1-1).
- Score draw though looks best case for them today.
- The value given Sassuolo's solid recent record is in laying Inter Milan from the start at 1.18. Needs must though for Inter who have those 11 wins at home v teams below them in the league.