DRT Daily Research Bulletin, December 12, 2020

I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook and live chat webinar at DRT Facebook at 14:30 where I will also be telegramming for those who cannot attend. The live chat webinar showcases how I use drtinplaystats.com along with research to make better decisions. See you there at 14:30.
ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
12:30 - Wolves v Aston Villa - 2.30 Wolves
Wolves - 10th
- Only 4 losses.
- Win, Draw, Win, Draw at home latest.
- 1-1-1-2-1 goals scored at home.
- 3 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
- Not beaten a top 8 side. All wins coming v 11th and lower home and away.
- 4/6 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
Aston Villa - 12th
- 4 losses in 5 matches.
- Win, Win, Win, Loss away.
- Failed to score in only 1 match.
- Not played 9th-14th away. 3 away wins saw clean sheets.
Conclusions
- I cannot read Aston Villa whose wheels have fallen off recently with 4 defeats in 5 matches. But 3 wins in 4 matches away for Villa.
- Wolves may feel the pinch if they consistently fail to score that 2nd goal at home, given that Villa on their day have plenty of goals in them.
15:00 - Newcastle v West Brom - 2.20 Newcastle
Newcastle - 13th
- 2 losses in their last 3 matches.
- Only 2 clean sheets came 1st and last match.
- Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Loss at home.
- 3 consecutive 2-0 scorelines, 2 were defeats.
- Conceded in their last 5 at home.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
- 3/4 defeats came v the top 6.
- Not played the bottom 2 but beat 3rd bottom 3-1 at home.
- 5 goals conceded at home last 15 minutes of matches.
West Brom - 19th
- Only 1 win came last home match.
- 4 losses and a draw away.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 away matches.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
Conclusions
- On seasonal form, favour Newcastle. West Brom are having trouble scoring away from home. Newcastle have lost all bar 1 match v the top 6 so should find West Brom to their liking.
17:30 - Man Utd v Man City - 1.75 Man City
- High profile Manchester Derby. I think United wish they were playing away from home where 3 goals comes easily. I won't research just a high profile match.
20:00 - Everton v Chelsea - 1.75 Chelsea
Everton - 9th
- Only 1 win in 7 was a 2-3 v Fulham.
- Draw, Loss, Loss at home recently.
- Only clean sheet came 1st match.
- Conceded in their last 5 at home.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
- 0-1 win away v 1st, 2-2 at home v 2nd, 2-0 loss away v 5th, 1-3 loss at home v 6th.
Chelsea - 3rd
- Only 1 loss came v Liverpool.
- Unbeaten away.
- 4 wins and a draw last 5 matches.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
- Only played one of the top 12 away.
- All wins have come v 11th and lower.
- 8/11 goals scored away came 2nd half.
Conclusions
- Everton are likely to concede.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
- A slight gap in form shows Chelsea's solid form has mostly come v teams 11th and lower, i.e. outside of the top 10...and they play 9th today. Everton themselves are yet to beat the top 6.
- I favour Chelsea but the niggle here is their consistent play outside of the top 10.
SPANISH LA LIGA
13:00 - Valencia v Athletic Bilbao - 2.45 Athletic Bilbao
Valencia - 13th
- Only 3 wins.
- Win, Draw, Loss, Draw, Win, Loss at home.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- Failed to score in their last 2 matches.
- Conceded in their last 6 home matches.
- Playing 14th today and have a 2-2 at home v 15th, 4-2 at home v 17th and 1-1 at home v 20th.
Athletic Bilbao - 14th
- Only 4 wins.
- Loss, Win, Loss, Loss, Loss, Draw away.
- Conceded in their last 6 away.
- 0-2-0-1-0-1 goals scored away.
- 7/8 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
Conclusions
- These 2 are in poor winning form, hence the 2.45 the favourite quote suggesting caution.
- Notably Valencia have been good v 15th and lower, unbeaten at home. Now the question is whether that extends to 14th placed today?
- Athletic Bilbao keep conceding away goals and have scored that 2nd goal away only once so it is hard to make a case for them today unless the win is 0-1!
15:15 - Getafe v Sevilla - 2.10 Sevilla
Getafe - 15th
- Only 1 win in 8 matches came v Barcelona.
- Loss, Loss, Draw at home recently.
- 3/3 defeats v the top 7.
- 4/5 goals conceded at home came 1st half.
Sevilla - 6th
- 3 wins and a loss last 4 matches.
- A draw, 2 losses and a win last 4 away matches.
- 4/4 wins v 16th and lower, 3 came at home. 3 of those wins were 1-0.
- 4/6 goals scored away came 2nd half.
Conclusions
- On seasonal form, Getafe are not beating the top 7, Sevilla are beating 16th and lower, note the 3 1-0 wins only though, so that Sevilla defence has to click.
- Sevilla are strong 2nd half goal scorers.
17:30 - Huesca v Alaves - 2.25 Huesca
Huesca - 20th
- No win but only 4 defeats. Battling but leaking 2 points with every draw.
- 3 score draws in their last 4 matches.
- Draw, Draw, Draw, Loss at home.
- Conceded last 7 matches and last 3 at home.
- All draws home and away v 7th and lower.
Alaves - 12th
- 4 draws last 5 matches.
- Unbeaten in 6 matches.
- Scored last 5 away matches.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
- All defeats v the top 10.
Conclusions
- The draw is alive here isn't it? Huesca will win a match at some point and are more likely to win v fellow strugglers rather than a side near the top 10 who have, remember, only lost to the top 10 this season.
- Alaves held on for a 0-0 last match v league leaders despite a red card so are sturdy enough defensively. Do we enter this match assuming the draw is best case for Huesca again?
20:00 - Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid - 2.50 Real Madrid
- Will wonders never cease? Real Madrid behaved themselves in the Champions League with a 2-0 win v Mgladbach. A timely return to form. I won't be researching this Attack v Defence Madrid derby.
GERMAN BUNDESLIGA
14:30 - Dortmund v Stuttgart - 1.53 Dortmund
Dortmund - 4th
- A Champions League rest for a while now. Will this bring Dortmund back to the kind of form we expect of them?
- Only 3 losses, 2 have come in the last 2 home matches.
- Failed to score only once.
- Scored and conceded last 4 matches and a lot to do with the Champions League schedule.
- Scored in their last 8 matches.
- 5 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches at home.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
- 2+ goals scored at home in all bar 1 match.
- 10/13 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
Stuttgart - 8th
- Only 2 defeats.
- Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match.
- Win, Win, Draw, Draw, Win away.
- No 0-0 at halftime away.
- Not played the top 9 away.
Conclusions
- Stuttgart are solid away from home, but note that they are yet to meet the top 9 away so that needs a context.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
- Will Dortmund continue to score and concede as they have been in their recent pre-Champions League matches?
- Dortmund have 2+ goals in them at home. Note that if Stuttgart score (and both teams to score has come in all bar 1 match all season).
14:30 - Freiburg v Arminia Bielefeld - 1.83 Freiburg
Freiburg - 14th
- Only 1 win came first match and they still scored 2 goals.
- 3 losses and 2 draws last 5 matches.
- No clean sheets.
- Scored and conceded in 8 matches.
- Scored and conceded last 5 at home.
- No 0-0 at halftime at home.
- 8/11 goals conceded at home came 1st half.
Bielefeld - 16th
- Newly promoted. Only 2 wins. One came last match.
- 4 consecutive away losses.
- Conceded last 8 and last 5 away.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
- Wins came at home v 15th and 17th.
- Not scored a first half goal away.
Conclusions
- There is always that element of the unknown regarding a newly promoted side playing a side in close proximity to them in the league.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
- Freiburg do like scoring and conceding. Will that continue against perceived weaker opponents?
14:30 - Leipzig v Werder Bremen - 1.36 Leipzig
Leipzig - 3rd
- Only 1 loss.
- Win, Draw, Win, Draw latest, the draws coming away.
- 5 consecutive home wins.
- Failed to score only in that defeat.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime came in that defeat.
- 2+ goals scored last 5 at home.
- All home wins, all matches played at home, came v 12th and lower.
Werder Bremen - 13th
- 5 consecutive 1-1 draws has ended with 2 defeats. Called the last scoreline 1-2.
- Scored and conceded last 5 away matches, only 1 win.
- Scored and conceded last 7.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
- All wins have come v 16th and lower.
- 6/9 goals scored away came 1st half.
Conclusions
- It looks clear cut. Leipzig beat 12th and lower at home. 100%.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
- Expectation for Leipzig to continue with their 2 goals home average.
14:30 - Mgladbach v Hertha Berlin - 1.91 Mgladbach
Mgladbach - 7th
- Only 2 defeats came away.
- Draw, Draw, Win, Draw, Win at home. The culprit? 1-1-1-1-4 goals. Broke loose against Schalke.
- Failed to score only 1st match of the season.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- Scored and conceded in 8 matches this season.
- 2+ goals tends to be scored v 14th and lower.
Hertha Berlin - 12th
- Only 3 wins.
- Only 1 loss in 5 came v Dortmund.
- No 0-0 at halftime.
- Only 1 win home and away v 9th and higher.
Conclusions
- Mgladbach need to solve their single digit goal scoring at home and only tend to do so v 14th and lower. This may leave them vulnerable as they play 12th today. But Hertha struggle v the top 9 and Mgladbach may get away with it. Do prepare for a possible goal shy Mgladbach. That 4 goal haul was v Schalke and my Sunday league side, down to 7 players because 4 of them are still in the pub, could score 4 goals v Schalke.
14:30 - Mainz v Koln - 2.4 Mainz
Mainz - 17th
- Only 1 win.
- Draw, Win, Draw, Loss last 4 matches. Improved form...fleetingly.
- 2 consecutive home score draws.
- No clean sheets.
- Scored and conceded last 6 matches.
- No 0-0 at halftime at home.
- Have scored and conceded in all matches home and away v 7th and lower....with just the one win.
- All 6 goals scored at home came 1st half.
- 7 goals conceded at home last 30 mins of home matches.
Koln - 15th
- Win, draw last 2 matches.
- That win, v Dortmund, was a coupon buster and the only win all season.
- Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match all season.
- 1-1, 1-1, 1-2 win last 3 away matches.
- No clean sheets.
- Not played the bottom 2 yet.
Conclusions
- Both sides have just one win. Both sides have improved very recent form.
- Both sides have conceded in every match.
- Both sides tend to score and concede.
- But both sides are poor and don't look reliable. Neutral play? Goals, both teams to score markets?
17:30 - Union Berlin v Bayern Munich - 1.28 Bayern Munich
Union Berlin - 6th
- Only 2 losses came 1st and last match.
- Scored in every match.
- Scored and conceded in 8 matches.
- No 0-0 at halftime at home.
- Not played the top 5.
Bayern Munich - 1st
- 2 draws last 3 matches came at home.
- 4 consecutive away wins.
- Scored in every match.
- No 0-0 at halftime.
- 2+ goals scored last 4 away matches.
- No 0-0 at halftime away.
- 3+ goals scored v top 9 this season, conceding in 3/4 matches.
- 9/13 goals scored away came 1st half.
Conclusions
- I expect 3 goals + from Bayern at their best.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
- Will both teams continue to score in all matches?
ITALIAN SERIA A
14:00 - Crotone v Spezia - 2.6 Crotone
Crotone - 20th (bottom)
- No win.
- All defeats bar 2 draws.
- Failed to score last 4 matches.
- No 0-0 at halftime at home.
- Opponents scored first in 4/5 at home.
- Not played 10th or lower at home.
Spezia - 15th
- Only 2 wins came away.
- Failed to score in only 2 matches.
- 2-0-2-3-2 goals scored away.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
- 2-3-2-2-2 goals scored v 11th and lower - there were 3 2-2 scorelines.
- 6/7 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
Conclusions
- 2.6 the favourite suggests this is too tough to call.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
- On seasonal form, Spezia keep scoring 2+ goals and go unbeaten v 11th and lower. Trust in that today despite Crotone not playing 10th or lower at home (so how can we gauge?).
17:00 - Torino v Udinese - 2.50 Udinese
Torino - 18th
- Only 1 win.
- 2 consecutive home draws.
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- 2+ goals conceded in all matches v the top 12.
- 6/9 goals scored at home came 1st half.
Udinese - 14th
- A draw and 2 wins last 3 matches.
- Only played one of the bottom 3, a 1-0 home win v 19th.
Conclusions
- Torino are in poor form and conceding 2+ goals v the top 12. Will that extend down to 14th?
- Udinese are in decent ultra recent form, with 2 clean sheets in 3 unbeaten matches.
19:45 - Lazio v Verona - 1.60 Lazio
Lazio - 7th
- Only 1 loss in 6 matches was a pre-European Club competition slip up v Udinese.
- Loss, Draw, Win, Draw, Loss at home.
- Failed to score in only 1 match.
- Scored and conceded last 5 at home.
- Opponents have led at halftime in 4/5 Lazio home matches.
- Played 2 of the top 8 at home, 1-1 draws.
- All 6 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
- 7/10 goals conceded at home came 1st half.
Verona - 8th
- Only 2 defeats.
- Only 2 wins in 8 matches.
- Unbeaten away v the top 9.
Conclusions
- No distractions for a while for Lazio now....so no excuses? Poor at home recently though, they still are likely to score and concede at home and meet a Verona currently unbeaten away v the top 9. Intriguing.
- If Lazio have not scored first, half, they are likely to 2nd half. Will Verona lead at halftime? Watch out for that potential given Lazio's home record.
DUTCH EREDIVISIE
15:30 - Groningen v RKC Waalwijk - 1.50 Groningen
Groningen - 6th
- A draw and 2 wins last 3 matches.
- Only 3 defeats.
- Win, Draw, Win, Draw, Win at home.
- Unbeaten home and away v 8th and lower.
- 4/6 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
RKC Waalwijk - 12th
- A draw and 2 wins last 3 matches.
- No 0-0 at halftime away.
- 2/3 wins came v teams below them in the league.
- 3/4 goals scored at home came 1st half.
Conclusions
- Similar recent form. What may spell trouble for RKC is the fact that 2/3 wins came v teams below them in the league. Further, Groningen are unbeaten home and away v 8th and lower.
17:45 - Emmen v Den Haag - 1.75 Emmen
Emmen - 18th
- No win.
- 6 consecutive defeats, 2 at home.
- Conceded last 11 matches.
- No 0-0 at halftime at home.
- Bottom of the league.
- 2 score draws at home v 15th and 16th.
ADO Den Haag - 17th
- Only 1 win.
- 2 consecutive 1-1 draws.
- No clean sheet.
- Not played the bottom 3 but did beat 14th 1-2 away.
- 14/18 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
Conclusions
- Bottom 2 might suggest a little untrustworthiness.
- Emmen are score drawing 15th and 16th at home. Significant? They play 17th today.
- ADO concede the vast majority of their goals 2nd half.
19:00 - Ajax v Zwolle - 1.15 Ajax
Ajax - 1st
- The Champions League does strange things to teams. Ajax suddenly lose 1-2 to Twente last match.
- 5 wins at home ended with that pre-Champions League defeat.
- Failed to score only once.
- 7 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches, 6 at home.
- Scored in their last 7 and last 6 at home.
- No 0-0 at halftime at home.
- Led at halftime at home in 5/6 matches.
- 100% wins v 7th and lower.
Zwolle - 11th
- First win since October came last match.
- Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
- 3 consecutive score draws ended with that win v Vitesse.
- 4 score draws and a loss away.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
Conclusions
- Ajax were distracted by the Champions League last match. 1.15 agrees with me. They were averaging 5 goals and look set to return to that kind of tally.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
- Best case for Zwolle is a score draw.
SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE
15:00
Motherwell v St Mirren - 2.18 Motherwell
Motherwell - 8th
- No win in 3.
- 3 defeats in 4 matches at home did come against the top 3.
- 10/16 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
- Not played St Mirren this season (due to play 3 times) but did beat 7th, draw with 9th, beat 10th at home.
St Mirren - 12th
- 3 wins and a 1-1 draw start coming v 9th and lower, all wins 1-0.
- Unbeaten run of 3 matches too includes 2 clean sheets.
- 6/8 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
Conclusions
- St Mirren start doing their winning v 9th and lower, albeit 1-0 wins so if scoring first, can be layed with a cover of the 0-1 in case they pull it off again.
- Motherwell's recent home form needs the context of playing the top 3 so can be dismissed when talking about 12th today.
- Both sides concede a lot 2nd half.
Hamilton v Hibernian - 1.65 Hibernian
Hamilton - 12th and bottom
- Only 3 wins. Did win last match.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- Scored last 4 at home.
- Opponents have led at halftime in 5/7 at home.
- 8/11 goals conceded at home came 1st half.
- 3-2 loss to Hamilton last time these 2 met.
- 1-1 v 4th and 5th at home, 1-0 win v 6th at home.
Hibernian - 3rd
- 2 2-2 draws and a 0-3 win latest.
- Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 away.
- Conceded only 1 goal away in 6 wins and a 0-0 v 5th and lower.
Conclusions
- Hamilton have been solid v 4th, 5th and 6th at home, with 1-1, 1-1, 1-0 win. Something for Hibs to worry about? This is a Hibs keeping clean sheets in mostly wins v 5th and lower, and they play 12th today.
- If Hamilton score first, lay them but cover the 1-0 given that above record.
Aberdeen v Ross Co - 1.58 Aberdeen
Aberdeen - 4th
- Only 3 defeats.
- A defeat and 2 1-1 draws last 3 matches.
- 2+ goals scored in their last 4 home matches.
- Only home losses v 1st and 8th.
- 0-3 win last head to head.
- Unbeaten home and away v 9th and lower.
Ross Co - 10th
- Only 3 wins were 1-0.
- 6 losses and 2 draws last 8 matches.
- 5 losses last 6 away matches.
- Not beaten a top 6 side home or away.
Conclusions
- On seasonal form, Aberdeen will feel confident. Ross Co. have not beaten a top 6 side home or away.
- If Ross Co lead, lay them but cover the 1-0. If they win, they tend to win 1-0!!