Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook and live chat webinar at DRT Facebook at 14:30 where I will also be telegramming for those who cannot attend. The live chat webinar showcases how I use drtinplaystats.com along with research to make better decisions. See you there at 14:30.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Wolves v Aston Villa - 2.30 Wolves

Wolves - 10th

  • Only 4 losses.
  • Win, Draw, Win, Draw at home latest.
  • 1-1-1-2-1 goals scored at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • Not beaten a top 8 side. All wins coming v 11th and lower home and away.
  • 4/6 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Aston Villa - 12th

  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • Win, Win, Win, Loss away.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • Not played 9th-14th away. 3 away wins saw clean sheets.

Conclusions

  • I cannot read Aston Villa whose wheels have fallen off recently with 4 defeats in 5 matches. But 3 wins in 4 matches away for Villa.
  • Wolves may feel the pinch if they consistently fail to score that 2nd goal at home, given that Villa on their day have plenty of goals in them.

15:00 - Newcastle v West Brom - 2.20 Newcastle

Newcastle - 13th

  • 2 losses in their last 3 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets came 1st and last match.
  • Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Loss  at home.
  • 3 consecutive 2-0 scorelines, 2 were defeats.
  • Conceded in their last 5 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 3/4 defeats came v the top 6.
  • Not played the bottom 2 but beat 3rd bottom 3-1 at home.
  • 5 goals conceded at home last 15 minutes of matches.

West Brom - 19th

  • Only 1 win came last home match.
  • 4 losses and a draw away.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 away matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, favour Newcastle. West Brom are having trouble scoring away from home. Newcastle have lost all bar 1 match v the top 6 so should find West Brom to their liking.

17:30 - Man Utd v Man City - 1.75 Man City

  • High profile Manchester Derby. I think United wish they were playing away from home where 3 goals comes easily. I won't research just a high profile match.

20:00 - Everton v Chelsea - 1.75 Chelsea

Everton - 9th

  • Only 1 win in 7 was a 2-3 v Fulham.
  • Draw, Loss, Loss at home recently.
  • Only clean sheet came 1st match.
  • Conceded in their last 5 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 0-1 win away v 1st, 2-2 at home v 2nd, 2-0 loss away v 5th, 1-3 loss at home v 6th.

Chelsea - 3rd

  • Only 1 loss came v Liverpool.
  • Unbeaten away.
  • 4 wins and a draw last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only played one of the top 12 away.
  • All wins have come v 11th and lower.
  • 8/11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Everton are likely to concede.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • A slight gap in form shows Chelsea's solid form has mostly come v teams 11th and lower, i.e. outside of the top 10...and they play 9th today. Everton themselves are yet to beat the top 6.
  • I favour Chelsea but the niggle here is their consistent play outside of the top 10.

SPANISH LA LIGA

13:00 - Valencia v Athletic Bilbao - 2.45 Athletic Bilbao

Valencia - 13th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Win, Draw, Loss, Draw, Win, Loss at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in their last 2 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 6 home matches.
  • Playing 14th today and have a 2-2 at home v 15th, 4-2 at home v 17th and 1-1 at home v 20th.

Athletic Bilbao - 14th

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Loss, Win, Loss, Loss, Loss, Draw away.
  • Conceded in their last 6 away.
  • 0-2-0-1-0-1 goals scored away.
  • 7/8 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • These 2 are in poor winning form, hence the 2.45 the favourite quote suggesting caution.
  • Notably Valencia have been good v 15th and lower, unbeaten at home. Now the question is whether that extends to 14th placed today?
  • Athletic Bilbao keep conceding away goals and have scored that 2nd goal away only once so it is hard to make a case for them today unless the win is 0-1!

15:15 - Getafe v Sevilla - 2.10 Sevilla

Getafe - 15th

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches came v Barcelona.
  • Loss, Loss, Draw at home recently.
  • 3/3 defeats v the top 7.
  • 4/5 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Sevilla - 6th

  • 3 wins and a loss last 4 matches.
  • A draw, 2 losses and a win last 4 away matches.
  • 4/4 wins v 16th and lower, 3 came at home. 3 of those wins were 1-0.
  • 4/6 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, Getafe are not beating the top 7, Sevilla are beating 16th and lower, note the 3 1-0 wins only though, so that Sevilla defence has to click.
  • Sevilla are strong 2nd half goal scorers.

17:30 - Huesca v Alaves - 2.25 Huesca

Huesca - 20th

  • No win but only 4 defeats. Battling but leaking 2 points with every draw.
  • 3 score draws in their last 4 matches.
  • Draw, Draw, Draw, Loss at home.
  • Conceded last 7 matches and last 3 at home.
  • All draws home and away v 7th and lower.

Alaves - 12th

  • 4 draws last 5 matches.
  • Unbeaten in 6 matches.
  • Scored last 5 away matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All defeats v the top 10.

Conclusions

  • The draw is alive here isn't it? Huesca will win a match at some point and are more likely to win v fellow strugglers rather than a side near the top 10 who have, remember, only lost to the top 10 this season.
  • Alaves held on for a 0-0 last match v league leaders despite a red card so are sturdy enough defensively. Do we enter this match assuming the draw is best case for Huesca again?

20:00 - Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid - 2.50 Real Madrid

  • Will wonders never cease? Real Madrid behaved themselves in the Champions League with a 2-0 win v Mgladbach. A timely return to form. I won't be researching this Attack v Defence Madrid derby.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Dortmund v Stuttgart - 1.53 Dortmund

Dortmund - 4th

  • A Champions League rest for a while now. Will this bring Dortmund back to the kind of form we expect of them?
  • Only 3 losses, 2 have come in the last 2 home matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 matches and a lot to do with the Champions League schedule.
  • Scored in their last 8 matches.
  • 5 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 2+ goals scored at home in all bar 1 match.
  • 10/13 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Stuttgart - 8th

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match.
  • Win, Win, Draw, Draw, Win away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not played the top 9 away.

Conclusions

  • Stuttgart are solid away from home, but note that they are yet to meet the top 9 away so that needs a context.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Will Dortmund continue to score and concede as they have been in their recent pre-Champions League matches?
  • Dortmund have 2+ goals in them at home. Note that if Stuttgart score (and both teams to score has come in all bar 1 match all season).

14:30 - Freiburg v Arminia Bielefeld - 1.83 Freiburg

Freiburg - 14th

  • Only 1 win came first match and they still scored 2 goals.
  • 3 losses and 2 draws last 5 matches.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 8/11 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Bielefeld - 16th

  • Newly promoted. Only 2 wins. One came last match.
  • 4 consecutive away losses.
  • Conceded last 8 and last 5 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Wins came at home v 15th and 17th.
  • Not scored a first half goal away.

Conclusions

  • There is always that element of the unknown regarding a newly promoted side playing a side in close proximity to them in the league.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Freiburg do like scoring and conceding. Will that continue against perceived weaker opponents?

14:30 - Leipzig v Werder Bremen - 1.36 Leipzig

Leipzig - 3rd

  • Only 1 loss.
  • Win, Draw, Win, Draw latest, the draws coming away.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • Failed to score only in that defeat.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime came in that defeat.
  • 2+ goals scored last 5 at home.
  • All home wins, all matches played at home, came v 12th and lower.

Werder Bremen - 13th

  • 5 consecutive 1-1 draws has ended with 2 defeats. Called the last scoreline 1-2.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 away matches, only 1 win.
  • Scored and conceded last 7.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All wins have come v 16th and lower.
  • 6/9 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • It looks clear cut. Leipzig beat 12th and lower at home. 100%.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Expectation for Leipzig to continue with their 2 goals home average.

14:30 - Mgladbach v Hertha Berlin - 1.91 Mgladbach

Mgladbach - 7th

  • Only 2 defeats came away.
  • Draw, Draw, Win, Draw, Win at home. The culprit? 1-1-1-1-4 goals. Broke loose against Schalke.
  • Failed to score only 1st match of the season.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 matches this season.
  • 2+ goals tends to be scored v 14th and lower.

Hertha Berlin - 12th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 1 loss in 5 came v Dortmund.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • Only 1 win home and away v 9th and higher.

Conclusions

  • Mgladbach need to solve their single digit goal scoring at home and only tend to do so v 14th and lower. This may leave them vulnerable as they play 12th today. But Hertha struggle v the top 9 and Mgladbach may get away with it. Do prepare for a possible goal shy Mgladbach. That 4 goal haul was v Schalke and my Sunday league side, down to 7 players because 4 of them are still in the pub, could score 4 goals v Schalke.

14:30 - Mainz v Koln - 2.4 Mainz

Mainz - 17th

  • Only 1 win.
  • Draw, Win, Draw, Loss last 4 matches. Improved form...fleetingly.
  • 2 consecutive home score draws.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Have scored and conceded in all matches home and away v 7th and lower....with just the one win.
  • All 6 goals scored at home came 1st half.
  • 7 goals conceded at home last 30 mins of home matches.

Koln - 15th

  • Win, draw last 2 matches.
  • That win, v Dortmund, was a coupon buster and the only win all season.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match all season.
  • 1-1, 1-1, 1-2 win last 3 away matches.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Not played the bottom 2 yet.

Conclusions

  • Both sides have just one win. Both sides have improved very recent form.
  • Both sides have conceded in every match.
  • Both sides tend to score and concede.
  • But both sides are poor and don't look reliable. Neutral play? Goals, both teams to score markets?

17:30 - Union Berlin v Bayern Munich - 1.28 Bayern Munich

Union Berlin - 6th

  • Only 2 losses came 1st and last match.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played the top 5.

Bayern Munich - 1st

  • 2 draws last 3 matches came at home.
  • 4 consecutive away wins.
  • Scored in every match.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • 2+ goals scored last 4 away matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 3+ goals scored v top 9 this season, conceding in 3/4 matches.
  • 9/13 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • I expect 3 goals + from Bayern at their best.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Will both teams continue to score in all matches?

ITALIAN SERIA A

14:00 - Crotone v Spezia - 2.6 Crotone

Crotone - 20th (bottom)

  • No win.
  • All defeats bar 2 draws.
  • Failed to score last 4 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Opponents scored first in 4/5 at home.
  • Not played 10th or lower at home.

Spezia - 15th

  • Only 2 wins came away.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 2-0-2-3-2 goals scored away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 2-3-2-2-2 goals scored v 11th and lower - there were 3 2-2 scorelines.
  • 6/7 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • 2.6 the favourite suggests this is too tough to call.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • On seasonal form, Spezia keep scoring 2+ goals and go unbeaten v 11th and lower. Trust in that today despite Crotone not playing 10th or lower at home (so how can we gauge?).

17:00 - Torino v Udinese - 2.50 Udinese

Torino - 18th

  • Only 1 win.
  • 2 consecutive home draws.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 2+ goals conceded in all matches v the top 12.
  • 6/9 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Udinese - 14th

  • A draw and 2 wins last 3 matches.
  • Only played one of the bottom 3, a 1-0 home win v 19th.

Conclusions

  • Torino are in poor form and conceding 2+ goals v the top 12. Will that extend down to 14th?
  • Udinese are in decent ultra recent form, with 2 clean sheets in 3 unbeaten matches.

19:45 - Lazio v Verona - 1.60 Lazio

Lazio - 7th

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches was a pre-European Club competition slip up v Udinese.
  • Loss, Draw, Win, Draw, Loss at home.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 at home.
  • Opponents have led at halftime in 4/5 Lazio home matches.
  • Played 2 of the top 8 at home, 1-1 draws.
  • All 6 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 7/10 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Verona - 8th

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Only 2 wins in 8 matches.
  • Unbeaten away v the top 9.

Conclusions

  • No distractions for a while for Lazio now....so no excuses? Poor at home recently though, they still are likely to score and concede at home and meet a Verona currently unbeaten away v the top 9. Intriguing.
  • If Lazio have not scored first, half, they are likely to 2nd half. Will Verona lead at halftime? Watch out for that potential given Lazio's home record.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

15:30 - Groningen v RKC Waalwijk - 1.50 Groningen

Groningen - 6th

  • A draw and 2 wins last 3 matches.
  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Win, Draw, Win, Draw, Win at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 8th and lower.
  • 4/6 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

RKC Waalwijk - 12th

  • A draw and 2 wins last 3 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 2/3 wins came v teams below them in the league.
  • 3/4 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Similar recent form. What may spell trouble for RKC is the fact that 2/3 wins came v teams below them in the league. Further, Groningen are unbeaten home and away v 8th and lower.

17:45 - Emmen v Den Haag - 1.75 Emmen

Emmen - 18th

  • No win.
  • 6 consecutive defeats, 2 at home.
  • Conceded last 11 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Bottom of the league.
  • 2 score draws at home v 15th and 16th.

ADO Den Haag - 17th

  • Only 1 win.
  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws.
  • No clean sheet.
  • Not played the bottom 3 but did beat 14th 1-2 away.
  • 14/18 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Bottom 2 might suggest a little untrustworthiness.
  • Emmen are score drawing 15th and 16th at home. Significant? They play 17th today.
  • ADO concede the vast majority of their goals 2nd half.

19:00 - Ajax v Zwolle - 1.15 Ajax

Ajax - 1st

  • The Champions League does strange things to teams. Ajax suddenly lose 1-2 to Twente last match.
  • 5 wins at home ended with that pre-Champions League defeat.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 7 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches, 6 at home.
  • Scored in their last 7 and last 6 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Led at halftime at home in 5/6 matches.
  • 100% wins v 7th and lower.

Zwolle - 11th

  • First win since October came last match.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • 3 consecutive score draws ended with that win v Vitesse.
  • 4 score draws and a loss away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Ajax were distracted by the Champions League last match. 1.15 agrees with me. They were averaging 5 goals and look set to return to that kind of tally.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Best case for Zwolle is a score draw.

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

15:00

Motherwell v St Mirren - 2.18 Motherwell

Motherwell - 8th

  • No win in 3.
  • 3 defeats in 4 matches at home did come against the top 3.
  • 10/16 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • Not played St Mirren this season (due to play 3 times) but did beat 7th, draw with 9th, beat 10th at home.

St Mirren - 12th

  • 3 wins and a 1-1 draw start coming v 9th and lower, all wins 1-0.
  • Unbeaten run of 3 matches too includes 2 clean sheets.
  • 6/8 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • St Mirren start doing their winning v 9th and lower, albeit 1-0 wins so if scoring first, can be layed with a cover of the 0-1 in case they pull it off again.
  • Motherwell's recent home form needs the context of playing the top 3 so can be dismissed when talking about 12th today.
  • Both sides concede a lot 2nd half.

Hamilton v Hibernian - 1.65 Hibernian

Hamilton - 12th and bottom

  • Only 3 wins. Did win last match.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored last 4 at home.
  • Opponents have led at halftime in 5/7 at home.
  • 8/11 goals conceded at home came 1st half.
  • 3-2 loss to Hamilton last time these 2 met.
  • 1-1 v 4th and 5th at home, 1-0 win v 6th at home.

Hibernian - 3rd

  • 2 2-2 draws and a 0-3 win latest.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 away.
  • Conceded only 1 goal away in 6 wins and a 0-0 v 5th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Hamilton have been solid v 4th, 5th and 6th at home, with 1-1, 1-1, 1-0 win. Something for Hibs to worry about? This is a Hibs keeping clean sheets in mostly wins v 5th and lower, and they play 12th today.
  • If Hamilton score first, lay them but cover the 1-0 given that above record.

Aberdeen v Ross Co - 1.58 Aberdeen

Aberdeen - 4th

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • A defeat and 2 1-1 draws last 3 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored in their last 4 home matches.
  • Only home losses v 1st and 8th.
  • 0-3 win last head to head.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 9th and lower.

Ross Co - 10th

  • Only 3 wins were 1-0.
  • 6 losses and 2 draws last 8 matches.
  • 5 losses last 6 away matches.
  • Not beaten a top 6 side home or away.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, Aberdeen will feel confident. Ross Co. have not beaten a top 6 side home or away.
  • If Ross Co lead, lay them but cover the 1-0. If they win, they tend to win 1-0!!