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https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/312771874418874891
is the link for today's live chat webinar. 14:00 kick off. Note the change in time for Italian Seria A. Only the one match but 14:00 will allow us some time to check other leagues.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

12:30 - Aston Villa v West Brom - 2 Aston Villa

  • A bit like the Champions League - we have 2 one-off matches where the away goal is in play and the prize could be be bigger.
  • It's deja vu all over again for Aston Villa, 1-0 losing Finalists to Fulham last season.
  • 2-2 and 0-2 West Brom in the 2 head to heads this season saw West Brom score 2 goals in each match.
  • West Brom must try and get an away goal. Aston Villa need a clean sheet.
  • 5 wins and a 1-2 loss v Norwich in Villa's last 5 home matches.
  • Only 1 draw for West Brom away since 20th October 2018.3 losses and a 0-0 last 4 away is poor away form just at the wrong time.
  • Apart from this I have no angles.

17:15 - Derby County v Leeds United - 2.76 Leeds

  • 1-2 Derby, 2-2, 1-4 Leeds United, 2-0 Leeds in the recent head to heads.
  • In the last 3 head to heads, Leeds consistently scored 2 goals.
  • Great performance by Derby to get here. 3-1 v West Brom was a must win.
  • Only 2 home losses for Derby since 21st August 2018 is excellent form. 4 consecutive recent home wins scoring 6-4-2-3 goals.
  • Only 1 draw for Leeds away since 2nd October 2018.
  • 3 losses in 4 away for Leeds saw them fail to score in 2 matches.
  • On seasonal form, Derby have been excellent at home all season.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

16:00 - Angers v Paris St-G - 1.44 PSG

  • The recent PSG loss to Montpellier had 'end of season' all over it. They did follow it up with a win though regardless of the fact that the title was wrapped up ages ago.
  • Angers are some 15 points above the relegation zone. Just a quick look here.
  • Only 2 losses for Angers recently since 27th January. Only 2 wins since 23rd February suggests a lot of draws.
  • 4 consecutive home draws.
  • In the Challenge Table they lost 3-1 to PSG but did beat 2nd at home 1-0 and lose 1-2 to 3rd.
  • PSG are more vulnerable away. That recent loss to Montpellier was v 5th and another 3-2 loss v 11th sees them play 12th today.
  • Dead rubber but the big guns are back for PSG and that might tempt the undisciplined amongst us from blowing our wad on an ultimately meaningless match!

  • 3 matches remain this season.

19:00 - Amiens v Toulouse - 2.32 Amiens

  • Plenty for Amiens to play for given the proximity of the bottom 3. Ditto Toulouse but not as urgent as Amiens.

Amiens (16th)

  • Only 1 loss in 9 was a 3-2 v Nantes.
  • 6 draws in their last 7 matches. Not losing but not accumulating points.
  • 3 wins and 3 draws at home recently.
  • 9 0-0's at halftime at home (53%).
  • 0-1 win v Toulouse earlier this season.
  • v 10th and lower at home, 0-1-0-2-0-0-1-1 scored so a win is going to be 1-0.
  • 72% of goals scored and 76% of goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Toulouse (15th)

  • Highly inconsistent. Only 3 wins since 13th January 2019 were 1-0 wins.
  • Failed to score that 2nd goal away since 13th January 2019.
  • 2-1, 2-1, 2-1, 1-2 v 14th and lower away.

Conclusions

  • This has the feel of a tight match about it. I may even back 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 pre match and hope for a 0-0 for a while. Poor scoring both sides of late. Yes, Toulouse v 14th and lower tend towards 2-1 losses but this is a match where I would look to lay the first team to score with a cover of the 1-0/0-1 whoever scored first.

19:00 - Nice v Nantes - 2.36 Nice

  • Nice cannot get a top 4 spot for European Club Competition football next season.Nantes are happily enconced in mid-table mediocrity.
  • A dead rubber.

19:00 - Nimes v Monaco - 2.1 Monaco

  • 5th is best case for Nimes who, like Nice above, cannot get a European Club Competition place. Monaco are still in trouble. They are only 3 points shy of 3rd bottom place so have plenty to play for.

Nimes (8th)

  • 4 wins and 2 defeats recently. The defeats came away from home.
  • 3 consecutive home wins in a run of 7 unbeaten at home.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 5 home matches.
  • Very good form v 11th and lower.
  • 7 wins, a loss v Toulouse and a 0-0 draw.
  • 19 of 27 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Monaco (17th)

  • Only 1 win in 9 matches.
  • Scored 2 goals in each of their last 2 matches without winning  - 2-2 v Rennes and 2-3 loss to St Etienne.
  • Those were the only 2 matches in 8 that Monaco scored 2 goals in. Their 2nd goal v St Etienne was a 90th minute goal so for me there may still be an issue with scoring that 2nd goal early enough to be impactful in a match.
  • v top 10 away, only 1 win 0-1 v 2nd.
  • 16 of 19 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • This match hinges on Nimes' attitude. Little to play for. And it hinges on whether Monaco can score a 2nd goal early enough in a match to be impactful. I feel they struggle to score that 2nd goal and that could leave them vulnerable to a Nimes side scoring 2 goals in each of their last 5 at home.
  • Critical part of the season for Monaco so we may see sudden improvement but on seasonal form, I would lay Monaco if Monaco scored first.
  • Note the very strong 2nd half scoring for both sides if 0-0 at halftime.
  • So, on seasonal form, with Nimes not to lose but caveat - 2 goals scored in last 2 by Monaco without winning. They might make a fist of it. They certainly need points.

19:00 - Dijon v Strasbourg - 2.02 Dijon

  • Dijon can still extricate themselves from the bottom 3 but it will take 3/3 remaining wins.
  • Strasbourg have little to play for now. NO European places available to them.

Dijon (19th)

  • 2 consecutive away defeats.
  • 1-0-1-0-0-0-3 goals scored recently at home. As you can see, that 3 was an anomoly but did produce a win.
  • Not beaten a top 9 side at home.

Strasbourg (10th)

  • 8 draws in 11 matches.
  • 4 draws in 5 away.
  • 4 draws in 5 matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower.
  • Beat Dijon 3-0 earlier this season.

Conclusions

  • If Diijon can score 2+ goals like they did in their last home match, then they may get something. But it is no habit.1-0-1-0-0-0 then 3 goals at home recently. Further, they are yet to beat the top 9 at home. Strasbourg are unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower.
  • So it's one of those matches.....on seasonal form we'd have to be with Strasbourg not to lose but they have little to motivate them. On need-to-win basis we would be with Dijon who simply must win at home or it's a guaranteed bottom 3 berth for them.

19:00 - Caen v Reims - 2.24 Caen

  • 3 matches remain.
  • Caen are 3rd bottom. Reims are 9th. Caen have it all to play for. They can still escape bottom 3 but will need 3/3 wins.

Caen (18th)

  • 2 wins and a 0-0 last 3 matches. GOING FOR IT!!
  • Not scored that 2nd goal at home in 8 matches so 1-0's as recently the only winning scoreline.
  • 10 0-0's at halftime at home (59%).
  • Not beaten top 13 at home.
  • 2-2 the last time these 2.
  • 10 of 13 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Reims (9th)

  • No win in 6 and failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches is music to Caen's ears.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away (41%).

Conclusions

  • This could be a candidate to back 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 pre match and hope for a concerted period of 0-0. Both sides recently had trouble scoring. Caen have 2 1-0 wins and a 0-0 last 3 matches and will be keen to preserve a clean sheet as a foundation for a possible 1-0 win. Reims have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches so their season might be peetering out.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

  • 2 matches remain this season.

14:30 - Dortmund v Fortuna Dusseldorf - 1.33 Dortmund

  • The remaining 2 matches for Dortmund are must-wins. Dusseldorf betrayed their attitude now safe from relegation in failing to beat 10 man Freiburg last match.
  • Dortmund have scored 2+ goals in 7 of their last 8 and last 4 matches, drawing and losing their last 2 matches.
  • Dortmund have scored in their last 16 home matches, indeed scoring 2+ goals.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Opponents have had to score 2+ goals to get anything at Dortmund this season.
  • Both teams have scored in Dusseldorf's last 7 matches, with just 3 wins.
  • No win away v the top 9 for Dusseldorf.
  • If Dortmund consent to score 2 goals again at home (for the 17th time) this is enough for the win I think as Dusseldorf are playing out their season.

14:30 - Hannover v Freiburg - 2.5 Freiburg

  • 2 matches remain. Hannover are down. Freiburg are safe from relegation. Next please...

14:30 - Stuttgart v Wolfsburg - 2.32 Wolfsburg

  • Stuttgart cannot get out of the bottom 3. All to play for the the Wolf who need a top 6 berth for European Club Competition. A Champions League berth is still available.

Stuttgart (16th)

  • Only 6 wins, 5 of which came at home. Won their last home match 1-0 v Mgladbach after a 0-1 loss to Leverkusen so have been keeping it tight.
  • Last home match of the season.
  • Only 2 wins in 2019.
  • Lost to all top 5 at home but unbeaten at home v 6th-11th inclusive, with 3 wins and draws and not conceding that 2nd goal.
  • Failed to score that 2nd goal themselves though home and away v the top 8.
  • 13 of 19 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Wolfsburg (7th)

  • A draw and 2 wins last 3 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats ended with win last away match.
  • v 4th and lower away, only 3 defeats v 9th, 15th and 18th.

Conclusions

  • Best case Stuttgart should be a 1-0 or a 1-1 today if they fail to score that 2nd goal as they have done v all top 8 home and away.
  • That may let the Wolf in if Stuttgart score first. I would have to take out 1-0 insurance given they beat Mgladbach 1-0 last match at home and have an unbeaten record v 6th-11th inclusive at home and this is their last home match of the season.
  • You can be assured that the Wolf will be giving it their all, with a possible Champions League spot to hand.

14:30 - RB Leipzig v Bayern Munich - 1.69 Bayern Munich

  • Leipzig are assured Champions League football and a top 4 spot. Bayern will win the title with a win today, with a game in hand.
  • Leipzig are unbeaten in 14, and this is their last home match of the season so you bet they'll be treating this competitively in front of home support despite the fact it is not a bust-a-gut-must-win.
  • Noticeably, Leipzig's only home loss came v 2nd, and home and away they are 3/3 losses v the top 3.
  •  Only a 1-0 Bayern win when these 2 met earlier in the season.

14:30 - Nurnberg v Mgladbach - 1.97 Mgladbach

  • Nurnberg will not wriggle out of the bottom 3 even if they win their remaining 2 matches. This is their last home match and we may see an improved performance in one last hurrah before the slip into Bundesliga 2 (remember Huddersfield v Man Utd?).
  • A top 4 spot is still a possibility for Mgladbach so they will be going at it until the end.
  • Only 2 wins for Nurnberg all came at home. 3 score draws recently including at home to Bayern suggests they could be competitive today.
  • They have 4 draws in 5 at home v the top 5 and meet 6th today. The fact that Nurnberg have not scored that 2nd goal at home v the top 9 suggests laying them if they score first (1-0 insurance possibly if you view Mgladbach as less than reliable).
  • 81% of Nurnberg goals scored and 72% of goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • Only 2 wins in 12 for Mgladbach did come away. They have failed to score that 2nd goal in each of their last 5 away.
  • Mgladbach are inconsistent away. E.g. they can beat 1st yet lose to 16th.
  • It does all point to laying the first team to score here today IF both sides consent to struggle to score that 2nd goal.
  • Expect Nurnberg to be fully wound up in their last home match in the Bundesliga.

14:30 - Augsburg v Hertha Berlin - 2.4 Augsburg

  • This is a dead rubber. Augsburg will be wiping the sweat off their brow, guaranteed safey and both sides gaining very little from winning their remaining 2 matches.

14:30 - Hoffenheim v Werder Bremen - 1.51 Hoffenheim

  • The mighty Hoff. I continue to give them the benefit of the doubt when leading in matches but they continue to concede to make it 1-1.
  • While the top 4 is mathematically possible, I suspect the Hoff will still be at it 100%. Werder's season is realistically over. They are unlikely to sneak into 6th even with 2 wins.

Hoffenheim (8th)

  • A.k.a. the mighty Hoff.
  • 1-4 loss v Wolfsburg and 2-2 v Mgladbach latest. Hoff scored first, then conceded. Scored first then conceded!
  • Scored 2 goals in 7 of their last 9 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in their last 17 matches.
  • Scored in their last 17 matches.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v teams below them in the league.
  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • 19 of 28 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Werder Bremen (9th)

  • Failed to score only once all season.
  • 1-1-1-1-3-1-0-1 goals scored recently away can leave them vulnerable.
  • Scored and conceded in 12 of their last 14 matches.
  • Conceded last 11 and last 7 away.
  • Unbeaten away v 4th-7th inclusive.
  • Scored and conceded all bar 1 away v top 14.

Conclusions

  • If Werder continue to score, albeit just the one goal away as is the recent pattern, they are layable if leading.
  • The mighty Hoff have conceded after scoring in their last 2 matches. I would not put you off laying them if they lead.
  • Remember the Hoff Club Motto 'from the shadow of victory, we will draw....or lose.....somehow'.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on the Hoff.

14:30 - Leverkusen v Schalke 04 - 1.4 Leverkusen

  • An electric performance at home at 1.27 odds v Frankfurt last match for Leverkusen. More again today?

Leverkusen (5th)

  • 4th is best case for Leverkusen this season.
  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • No draw in 19 and in 12 at home.
  • Scored in their last 14 matches and last 7 at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 10th and lower. All wins at home bar a 2-2 v 8th. 6 clean sheets in the 8 matches.
  • 1-2 win over Schalke earlier this season.

Schalke (15th)

  • Win and draw last 2 matches. Every little helps.
  • Win, Draw, Win latest includes a win away at Dortmund last away match.
  • Only 1 win home and away v the top 6. only 1 away win v the top 9.

Conclusions

  • Schalke survive! That win v Dortmund ensured it. Leverkusen are the side, for me, with motivation still and I expect the home side to follow up their superb 6-1 win last match.
  • Lay any late draw.

ENGLISH LEAGUE 1

19:30 - Sunderland v Portsmouth - 2.3 Sunderland

  • Leg One of the Play-off and Sunderland must assure a clean sheet and Portsmouth must assure an away goal.
  • 3-1 Pompey at home and 1-1 at Sunderland earlier this season in the league.
  • Sunderland lost only once at home all season, but scored and conceded v the top 4 at home.
  • Portsmouth away from home failed to beat any top 6 side this season, scoring and conceding v the top 5.
  • So tough to get angles in with so much at stake. Champions League patterns at least have seen cautious first leg, goal-laden second legs.
  • 1-1 looks an obvious starter here. Consideration for me to lay Portsmouth if Portsmouth score first given that superb home record for Sunderland.

SPL

15:00 - St Johnstone v Motherwell - 2.48 St Johnstone

  • I will leave these odds alone. In-play stats are the best guide.

15:00 - Livingston v Dundee - 1.99 Livingston

  • 2 matches officially remaining this season until the league is split into a Championship Group and a Relegation Group. Thanks to Andrew Baxter's Austrian Bundesliga article at the DRT Facebook page, we tend to see this when the league is won by the same team so comprehensively year-in-year-out.

Livingston (9th)

  • 3 draws in 4 matches.
  • Cannot get into the top 6 (which I assume is the Championship group).
  • Win, Win, Loss, Win, Loss at home recently.
  • No draw in 11 at home.
  • Scored in their last 6 at home.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home (39%).
  • 12 goals scored last 15 minutes of home matches.

Dundee (12th)

  • 10 consecutive defeats.
  • 5 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 5 away.
  • Conceded in their last 16 and last 14 away.
  • Did beat Livingston 1-2 away earlier this season but also lost 4-0!

Conclusions

  • 2 matches remain this season-proper. I guess that teams in the bottom half, if possible, will try and breach the top 6 Championship group.
  • Ain't gonna happen with these 2.
  • On recent form, Dundee are layable all ends up if leading. Livvy have scored in their last 6 at home and have 3 draws in 4 matches so should fight back if conceding first.

15:00 - Kilmarnock v Hibernian - 2 Kilmarnock

  • 2 matches remain.This is 4th v 5th. Killy cannot get any higher and are assured a place in the Championship Group. Hibs are pretty much assured top 6. Little else to play for bar Hibs overtaking Killy in the placings.
  • Kilmarnock at home did beat 1st and 2nd 2-1, lost to 3rd, and beat Hibs 3-0 at home, losing to 6th place Hearts twice at home.
  • Hibs are yet to beat a top 6 side away so on this limited look at the match, we should favour Killy who have scored 2 goals in 2/3 matches v Hibs already this season.

ITALIAN SERIA A

14:00 - Atalanta v Genoa - 1.53 Atalanta

Atalanta (4th)

  • Unbeaten in 10 and in 5 at home.3 consecutive wins.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (29%).
  • Unbeaten at home v 14th and lower. 3-4-2-0-4-1 goals scored.
  • 3-1 loss to Genoa earlier this season.

Genoa (16th)

  • Only 1 win in 11 came at home v Juventus.
  • 2 consecutive score draws.
  • 2 1-1 draws.
  • No win in 7 away.
  • Conceded last 7 and last 5 away.
  • No away win v top 17.

Conclusions

  • A good opportunity for Atalanta to continue their solid recent run and to consolidate European Club Competition places. Plenty of motivation.
  • I would expect them to outscore Genoa today, a Genoa looking vulnerable away v top 17.

17:00 - Cagliari v Lazio - 2.08 Lazio

  • 3 matches remain. Cagliari are 8 points above the relegation zone i.e. they are safe.
  • Lazio could even threaten 3rd but that is unlikely. More likely is an attempt to get a Europa League place in 5th and 6th.
  • Plenty for the away side to play for I would suggest.

Cagliari (13th)

  • 5 wins in 6 at home will have Lazio's full attention.
  • Only 7 clean sheets all season will have Lazio after.
  • 2 recent losses v Roma and Napoli did come away from home.
  • Only 1 home win v the top 10 but did draw 5th-10th inclusive.

Lazio (8th)

  • 2 losses and a win last 3 away.
  • Only 2 wins away v the top 12.
  • 3-1 win over Cagliari earlier this season.
  • Failed to score that 2nd goal in those matches.

Conclusions

  • Lazio are not all that away from home v the top 12. They play 13th today. The value would be in laying Lazio if they score first as they have consistently failed to score that 2nd goal.And add in Cagliari's recent solid form and we might have something here. My (ample) gut suggests a positive result for Lazio though.

19:30 - Fiorentina v Milan - 2.62 AC Milan

  • Fiorentina are not mathematically safe but as good as safe. Milan are embroiled in a battle for a top 6 spot and even a top 4 Champions League spot so you can be assured they will be 100% motivated until season end.

Fiorentina (12th)

  • No win since 24th February 2019.
  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • 1-1-0-0-0 goals scored in recent home matches. Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 home loss v top 9 but 6 draws.

Milan (6th)

  • Only 2 wins in 8 matches came at home.
  • 0-1-1-0 goals scored in recent away matches.
  • Conceded in their last 7 away.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away (47%).
  • Only 2 away wins v the top 15. By the same token, are unbeaten away v 10th and lower.
  • 13 of 17 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • A touch of the old draw-itis for Fiorentina tends to suggest laying them if they score first. Their inability to score that 2nd goal at home lately also suggests laying the viola if they score first.
  • Milan have been equally as poor in scoring recently and are poor v the top 15 away so it suggests same with them? Lay Milan if Milan score first.
  • Not a match that is immediately clear as far as conclusions are concerned.