I do hope you went to the bank of Werder last night - you know the drill. Goal before halftime and both teams scoring! My biggest winner yesterday was Nice. Caen took a 0-2 lead. Lay them! 2-2 it ended. As I said in the e-letter, it's a case of taking an opinion (Nice would not lose) and sticking with it whatever!

See you at 14:30 today although there are some good lunchtime kick offs including the FA Cup.

---

12:00 - Valencia v Sporting Gijon - 1.52 Valencia

• 0-1 Sporting and 1-2 Valencia in the last 2 head to heads.
• This is 13th v 19th in Spanish La Liga.

Valencia 100% stats

• No 0-0 at home.
• Unbeaten home and away v 15th and lower.

Valencia other stats

• 4 wins in 5 home matches.
• Only 4 clean sheets.
• Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
• Scored and conceded all matches v bottom 3.

Sporting 100% stats

• Not beaten a top 16 team away.
• No away matches with exactly 4 goals.

Sporting other stats

• Only 3 wins.
• Only 4 clean sheets.
• 7 0-0's at halftime away.

Conclusions

• Valencia should be confident today. Sporting have yet to beat a top 16 team away and Valencia are in good winning home form.
• With Valencia having only 1 0-0 at halftime at home, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
• Both teams may score - a habit for Valencia v bottom 3 - but Sporting not win.

---

12:15 - Middlesbrough v Man City - 1.46 Man City

• This is an FA Cup match so is rather tough to read. Note Man City have a Champions League match up and coming. Their 0-0 v Stoke I think was down to making some team changes.
• This match will be all about whether you have faith in the obviously better team (Man City).
• Tellingly, Boro's recent Fa Cup defeats in 2015 and 2016 came v Arsenal and Burnley. The teams they have beaten to get here are as chalk and cheese when compared with Man City (Sheffield Wednesday, Accrington Stanley and Oxford United).
• Man City have only conceded one goal in their 2017 FA Cup campaign.
• Tough for me to call given then Champions League distraction for Man City. 0-0 I suppose looks a best case scenario for Middlesbrough.

---

14:30 - Freiburg v Hoffenheim - 2.42

• 1-1 and 2-1 Hoff in the last 2 head to heads.
• This is 8th v 4th in the German Bundesliga.

Freiburg 100% stats

• No home draw.
• All defeats home and away v top 4.
• Have beaten 5th, 6th, 7th and 9th at home!
• No 0-0.
• No 1-0 and 0-1 at home.

Freiburg other stats

• Only 3 defeats in 11 matches, 2 were v Dortmund and Bayern so it looks reasonable form.
• Only 3 clean sheets.
• Failed to score in only 4 matches.
• At least one team has scored 2 goals in each of the last 8 matches.

Hoffenheim 100% stats

• Not lost to nil.
• No 1-0 or 0-1 away.

Hoffenheim other stats

• 2 losses all season came within the last 3 away matches.
• Failed to score in only 2 matches.
• Scored and conceded last 3 aways without winning.
• Only 2 wins away v top 15 sides.

Conclusions

• This could be another toughie for the Hoff. Both teams could score. If Freiburg score first, lay them because they have not had a 1-0 at home.
• I would opt for a 2-1/1-2 scoreline here given Freiburg matches have tended to see 2 goals.
• Both teams tend to score in matches all season.

---

14:30 - Bayern Munich v Eintracht Frankfurt - 1.14 Bayern

• Bayern have won the last 2 home head to heads no nil.
• This is 1st v 6th in the German Bundesliga.

Bayern 100% stats

• Unbeaten at home.
• Scored in all home matches.
• Not conceded 2 goals at home.
• Unbeaten at halftime at home.
• 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
• Not conceded in both halves at home.
• No 0-0.

Bayern other stats

• Failed to score only once and that was their sole defeat.
• 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches.
• 10 wins and 2 draws in their last 12 matches.

Frankfurt 100% stats

• Not beaten a top 12 side away.
• Not scored v a top 10 side away.
• No over 3.5 goals matches away.

Frankfurt other stats

• 4 consecutive defeats.
• Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
• 4 defeats in their last 5 away matches.

Conclusions

• Bayern should be winning to nil today. If Frankfurt score and score first even that would be an anomoly we should profit from by opposing.
• It does have a straightforward feel about it unless the mid week Champions League fixture has a fatigue impact. It shouldn't.

---

14:30 - RB Leipzig v Wolfsburg - 1.64 Leipzig

• 0-1 Leipzig earlier this season.
• This is 2nd v 15th in the German Bundesliga. Leipzig are the only side remotely close to Bayern Munich.

Leipzig 100% stats

• No 0-0.
• Only played one of the bottom 4 at home and lost that match.
• No over 4.5 goals matches at home.

Leipzig other stats

• Failed to score in only 4 matches.
• 14 consecutive matches without a 0-0 at halftime.
• Conceded in all home matches v 7th and lower.
• 73% over 2.5 goals at home.
• Scored first in 9/11 at home.

Wolfsburg 100% stats

• Not beaten a top 3 sides.
• Failed to score in the 4 matches away v top 7.

Wolfsburg other stats

• Only 1 win in 6 matches.
• Only 1 0-0 away.

Conclusions

• Lay any late 0-0.
• Leipzig are excellent at home bar that strange loss recently Hamburg. Was that an anomoly? 9 wins and a draw at home v the rest.
• Leipzig may concede and if conceding first, 2-1, 3-1 look the obvious scorelines.
• Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
• 3/4 of Leipzig matches at home see over 2.5 goals so note that if 0-0 for a while.

---

14:30 - Hertha Berlin v Dortmund - 1.78 Dortmund

• 0-0 and 1-1 the last time these 2 teams met.
• This is 5th v 3rd in the German Bundesliga.

Hertha Berlin 100% stats

• No 0-0 at home.
• No over 3.5 goals at home.
• Not conceded in both halves at home.

Hertha Berlin other stats

• Only 3 wins in their last 10 matches came at home.
• Not played 2nd, 3rd or 4th at home and drew 1-1 with 1st.
• Scored first in 9/11 at home.

Dortmund 100% stats

• No away 0-0.
• Not beaten a top 7 side away yet.

Dortmund other stats

• 3 consecutive wins.
• Failed to score only 3 times.
• No 0-0 at halftime last 11 matches.
• Only 1 win away v top 11.
• 92% over 1.5 goals away.

Conclusions

• Lay any late 0-0. These 2 tend to avoid 0-0's.
• Dortmund are poor away v top 11 teams with just the single win. 1.78 odds seem too short for me given Hertha recently kept Bayern to a 1-1 at home.
• Lay Dortmund if Dortmund score first? That may be the value play today.

---

14:30 - SV Darmstadt v Mainz - 2.28 Mainz

• 2-1 to Mainz the last time these 2 met.
• This is 18th v 11th in the German Bundesliga.

Darmstadt 100% stats

• 100% points earned at home.

Darmstadt other stats

• Only 1 win in 15 matches.
• Only 2 clean sheets.
• 7 0-0's at halftime at home.
• 14 of 19 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Mainz 100% stats

• Unbeaten v 15th and lower but not played bottom 3 away yet.

Mainz other stats

• Only 5 clean sheets.
• No draw in 7 away.

Conclusions

• A messy match. Darmstadt do all of their point scoring at home so obviously have something to them.
• They have though only kept 2 clean sheets so that's something for the notebook in-play.

---

15:00 - Aberdeen v Motherwell - 1.3 Aberdeen

• 14 goals in 3 matches scored by Aberdeen in head to heads.
• This is 2nd v 10th and Aberdeen are playing for European competition places only.

Aberdeen 100% stats

• Not conceded in both halves at home.
• Only home defeat was v 1st in the league.
• 10 goals scored v Motherwell this season.

Aberdeen other stats

• 8 wins in 10 matches.
• 5 consecutive home wins.
• No defeat in 7 at home.
• Only 1 defeat at halftime at home.
• Scored first in 10/13 at home.

Motherwell 100% stats

• Conceded in every away match.
• All 4 away wins were by 1 goal.
• 100% over 1.5 goals away.
• No 0-0 away.
• All defeats home and away v top 4 teams - that's 11 matches.

Motherwell other stats

• 5 losses in their last 6 matches.
• Only 3 clean sheets.
• 3-7-2-5-1 goals conceded recently.
• Conceded 10 goals in the last 15 minutes of first half away.

Conclusions

• Having been spanked by Aberdeen 7-2 as recently as 15th February, we do tend to see the phenomenon of an over-reaction defensively.
• Watch out for that from Motherwell.
• On average, Aberdeen should score 4 goals today. Motherwell simply cannot beat the top 4, in fact they lose.
• So do watch out for that Motherwell defensive over-reaction but conceding 18 goals in their last 3 matches, Motherwell should eventually capitulate.
• Aberdeen have been good trading material if we stick with them eventually coming through.

---

15:00 - Norwich v Blackburn - 1.77 Norwich

• 1-4 Norwich in an earlier head to head.
• This is 8th v 20th in the English Championship.

Norwich 100% stats

• Unbeaten at home v 10th and lower.
• All wins v 17th and lower at home.

Norwich other stats

• Scored and conceded last 7 matches.
• Failed to score in only 6 matches.
• Scored in their last 12 matches and last 10 at home.
• 17 goals scored in the first 30 minutes at home.
• 13 of 16 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Blackburn 100% stats

• No away 0-0.
• No away match with 4 goals exactly.

Blackburn other stats

• 6 under 2.5 goals matches in their last 7 - a defensive tactical change in the hope of saving the season?
• Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 away matches.
• Scored in their last 12 matches.
• 9 0-0's at halftime away.
• Only 2 away wins.
• 11 of 15 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

• Norwich consistently perform well at home outside of the top 10. They meet a Blackburn who have tightened things at the back. 6 under 2.5 goals matches recently attest to that.
• Norwich have scored in their last 10 at home so I would expect a goal from them at some point. If Blackburn score first, I would lay them.

---

15:00 - Hull v Swansea - 2.58 Hull

• Hull have won the last 2 head to heads in all competitions.
• This is 19th v 16th in the English Premiership.

Hull 100% stats

• No 0-0 at home.
• Unbeaten at home v 10th and lower.
• Scored and conceded at home v 10th and lower.

Hull other stats

• Only 3 clean sheets.
• Only 1 loss in 8 home matches was v Manchester City.
• 92% over 1.5 goals at home.
• 16 of 22 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Swansea 100% stats

• No draw home or away v teams below them in the league.
• No 0-0 away.

Swansea other stats

• 5 wins in 8 matches.
• Only 4 clean sheets.
• Scored and conceded last 4 away.
• No draw in 15 matches.
• Conceded in their last 12 away.
• 19 of 29 goals conceded away.

Conclusions

• This is a relegation six pointer. It should not end 0-0. These 2 teams like to avoid the 0-0.
• Lay any late draw as the Swans keep avoiding them. Apart from that it's a toughie. Hull are unbeaten v 10th and lower. Swansea have 5 wins in 8 matches.

---

15:00 - Everton v West Brom - 1.7 Everton

• There was a belief last week that the West Brom players had switched off. They had reached the magic 40 point mark and guaranteed another season in the Premiership and simply switched off.
• Everton won the last head to head 1-2.
• This is 7th v 8th in the Premiership. West Brom have....40 points.

Everton 100% stats

• No home 0-0.
• Unbeaten at home v 5th and lower.
• Not conceded in both halves at home.

Everton other stats

• Only 1 loss in 10 was away at Tottenham last match.
• 3-4-6-2 goals scored in their last 4 home matches.
• Failed to score in only 5 matches.
• 12 goals scored at home last 15 mins of matches.

West Brom 100% stats

• No away 0-0.
• Not beaten any side above them in the league - 4 losses away out of 4.
• Conceded in all away matches v top 15 sides.
• Failed to score 2 goals home or away v any team above them in the league.

Conclusions

• Top 4 is achievable for Everton, improbable but achievable so I guess they still have something to play for.
• If the West Brom who played against Palace turn up today, Everton will be winning this match, scoring 2+ goals as they have done in recent home matches.
• At any rate, West Brom have all defeats bar a draw home and away v teams above them in the league.
• I am with Everton here today. If 0-0 for a while, remember that West Brom have conceded in all away matches v top 15 teams and in all bar 1 away match all season.

---

15:00 - Bournemouth v West Ham - 2.64 Bournemouth

• 1-0 West Ham the last time these 2 met.
• This is 14th v 11th in the English Premiership.

Bournemouth other stats

• Only 6 clean sheets.
• No win in 8 matches.
• Only 1 0-0.
• Only 2 home clean sheets.
• Scored in all bar one match home and away v teams 4th - 13th inclusive.

West Ham 100% stats

• No 0-0.
• All West Ham wins have come v teams 10th and lower in the league.

West Ham other stats

• Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6.
• Failed to score in only 5 matches.
• Only 6 clean sheets.
• Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 away matches.

Conclusions

• The first thing to note. Lay any late 0-0. West Ham are one of a handful of sides still yet to see a 0-0.
• West Ham are meeting a team in the right half of the table, the half where the Hamsters tend to get their wins. So note that.
• Note also the 2.64 odds for the favourite. The market hasn't a clue. From my perspective, West Ham are more likely to win matches when meeting teams outside of the top 10.

---

15:15 - Sevilla v Leganes - 1.45 Sevilla

• 2-3 Sevilla in the last head to head.
• This is 3rd v 16th in Spanish La Liga.

Sevilla 100% stats

• Not played bottom 5 at home.
• Not lost to nil.
• No home match with exactly 4 goals.

Sevilla other stats

• Failed to score in only 2 matches.
• 5 wins and a draw last 6 home matches.

Leganes 100% stats

• No away 0-0.
• Not led at halftime away.
• All defeats home and away v top 3 conceding 2+ goals.

Leganes other stats

• 7 defeats in their last 8 away matches.
• 8 of 9 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

• A slight unknown as Sevilla are yet to meet the bottom 5 at home. They have tended to score and conceded away when meeting bottom 5.
• Sevilla should score at some stage so note that with a 0-0 or 0-1.
• Leganes are in poor form away. Sevilla surely must eye the win for an unlikely title bid.
• Back Sevilla if Leganes score first.

---

15:45 - Monaco v Bordeaux - 1.49 Monaco

• A mini revival on the Cote D'azur sees Monaco, Nice and Marseille playing superbly this season.
• 0-4 Monaco in the last head to head.
• This is 1st v 5th in the French Ligue 1.

Monaco 100% stats

• Scored in all home matches.
• Unbeaten at home outside of the top 4.
• Scored 2+ goals in all of those matches.
• 100% over 2.5 goals at home.

Monaco other stats

• 8 wins and 2 draws in their last 10 matches.
• Failed to score in only 1 match.
• 6-4-5-1-2-4-3-5-4 goals scored at home recently.
• No draw in 13 at home.
• Scored in their last 22 matches.
• 14 consecutive over 2.5 goals at home.

Bordeaux 100% stats

• All defeats v top 2 without scoring.
• No 1-0 or 0-1 away.

Bordeaux other stats

• Only 1 0-0 away.
• 92% over 1.5 goals away.
• 13 goals scored in the last 1/2 hour of away matches.

Conclusions

• Monaco should be scoring 2 goals at least today.
• Lay any late draw as Monaco have not had a draw in 13 matches.
• Bordeaux have lost to nil v top 2 teams - is there anything to suggest this will change today? Not that I can see.

---

17:30 - Malaga v Alaves - 2.1 Malaga

• 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
• This is 15th v 11th in Spanish La Liga.

Malaga 100% stats

• No home 0-0.
• Scored at home v teams above them in the league.

Malaga other stats

• Only 1 win in 13 matches.
• Only 2 clean sheets.
• Conceded in their last 14 matches and last 7 at home.
• Only 3 wins at home v teams above them in the league were 2-1 wins.

Alaves other stats

• Only 2 0-0's away.
• 7 0-0's at halftime away.
• Only 1 defeat home and away v 15th and lower.
• 11 of 14 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

• Malaga could get a goal but they tend not to follow it up with a second and that might be an angle here if Malaga score first? Malaga have only 2 clean sheets so it is highly likely that they will concede.
• Other than that, a match lacking any firm patterns.

---

18:45 - Go Ahead Eagles v PSV - 1.3 PSV

• 3 consecutive PSV wins to nil in head to heads. 1-0 last match.
• This is 15th v 3rd in the Dutch Eredivisie.

Go Ahead Eagles 100% stats

• No 0-0.
• Not beaten 2nd -11th inclusive home and away.
• No over 4.5 goals at home.

Go Ahead Eagles other stats

• Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 9 matches.
• Only 3 clean sheets.
• 4 3-1 scorelines in their last 5 home matches.
• No draw in 11 home matches.
• Conceded in their last 13 matches.

PSV 100% stats

• Only defeats have come v 1st in the league (A team Go Ahead actually beat at home!).
• Not lost to nil away.

PSV other stats

• Failed to score in only 4 matches.
• Scored and conceded last 4 away matches.
• 8 goals scored last 15 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

• Go Ahead could pull off a 1-0 win as they did v Feyenoord but PSV have yet to lose to nil away so lay Go Ahead if Go Ahead Go Ahead and score first.
• PSV really should be eyeing 3 goals. What chance another 1-3 scoreline for Go Ahead? Proability wise, it is unlikely to keep coming up!
• Remember Go Ahead have conceded in their last 13 matches. PSV also must win to keep tabs on 1st and 2nd.

---

19:45 - Granada v Atl Madrid - 1.53 Atl Madrid

• 7-1 Atl Madrid win in the last head to head.
• This is 18th v 4th in Spanish La Liga.

Granada 100% stats

• No home match with 4+ goals.

Granada other stats

• 3 consecutive home wins.
• Only 2 clean sheets.
• Only 1 0-0 at home.
• Did beat 3rd placed Sevilla at home but that looks an anomoly?
• 10 of 14 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Atl Madrid 100% stats

• All defeats have come v top 6 teams.

Atl Madrid other stats

• No 0-0 away.
• 8 0-0's at halftime away.
• 16 of 19 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

• Lay any late 0-0.
• Atl Madrid have a strong 2nd half scoring record so note that if 0-0 or 1-0 at halftime.

---

 19:45 - Genoa v Sampdoria - 2.74 Genoa

• 0-3 Genoa and 2-1 Sampdoria in the last 2 head to heads.
• This is 15th v 10th in Italian Seria A.

Genoa other stats

• Only 1 win in 11 was last match v a poor Empoli.
• No win in 5 home matches.
• Strange home form. Wins v 1st, 7th, 8th and 13th. Not beaten any bottom 7 sides yet can beat Juventus?

Sampdoria 100% stats

• Not scored in both halves away.

Sampdoria other stats

• Unbeaten in 6 matches.
• Unable to score that 2nd goal in their last 11 matches away.
• Only 2 away wins were 0-1.

Conclusions

• I felt obligated to research as this is the only Italian Seria A match late on. No wonder the favourite is 2.74 odds.
• We have a Genoa capable of beating Juventus yet cannot beat the bottom 6 at home.
• We have a Sampdoria I love to follow at home, yet who cannot score 2 goals away from home. On this basis, logic suggests Laying Samp if Samp score first.
• Other than that it's a match I am not keen on.

---