Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I will do a live chat webinar today but not a conventional webinar. The live chat webinar will be at the DRT Facebook page and via live video. I am working via a laptop and when I use my conventional webinar software, my laptop becomes slower than Matt le Tissier running fast. 15:00 start today at the DRT Facebook page. See you there and remember that you have the facility to comment. The live chat webinar will be 15:00 to 16:45 just to cover the 15:00 kick offs. I hope to see you there.

ITALIAN SERIA A

14:00 - Cagliari v AC Milan - 2.34 AC Milan

Cagliari - 6th

  • 2 losses first 2 matches of the season. 3 consecutive losses now.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 4 consecutive wins ended v Lazio latest (red carded Cagliari too).
  • Scored last 8 at home.
  • 3 losses at home. 2 losses v 1st and 3rd, the other v 18th.
  • 11 of 14 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • 14 of 20 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Milan - 12th

  • Failed to score last 3 matches, 2 of those matches 0-0 at home. Under new management.
  • 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • 2 wins and a 5-0 loss last 3 away.
  • Only 1 loss in 6 under new management.

Conclusions

  • New manager for Milan so still hard to weigh up. 3 clean sheets in 5 but failing to score last 3 matches. A manager with a touch of the Tony Pulis' about it?
  • Note the strong 2nd half goals pattern for Cagliari.
  • I cannot put forward a strong angle given this Milan new manager.

17:00 - Lazio v Napoli - 2.44 Lazio

Lazio - 3rd

  • 9 consecutive wins.
  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 11 matches without losing.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 12 matches and last 7 at home.
  • 6 of 7 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Napoli

  • New manager.
  • Have lost 0-1 at halftime in the 2 matches under new manager.
  • Loss win, loss. Losses at home v Parma and Inter Milan.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 matches, winning only 1 match.

Conclusions

  • More clouds over Napoli's form under Gattuso. Far too few matches played to get a handle on them. I do feel they are vulnerable to a Lazio looking in very solid form, albeit requiring a Brescia red card and a late winner for their last win.
  • Napoli may score today but without winning.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score on the seasonal stats but remember new manager for Gattuso albeit he has lost 0-1 at halftime last 2 matches.

19:45 - Inter v Atalanta - 1.9 Inter

Inter - 1st

  • Only 1 loss v Juventus.
  • 7 goals scored last 2 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • No defeat in 5 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • A noticeable drop in home form v the top 7. Loss, Win, Draw, Draw.
  • 1-1-0 scored at home v the top 3.

Atalanta - 5th

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 5 away matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime away (33%).
  • Only 1 away loss v 10th.
  • Drop in form v top 10 4 losses, 2 score draws, and 2 wins.
  • 3-2 goals scored away v 3rd and 4th.

Conclusions

  • Both sides tend to drop their form v the top sides. Note Inter v the top 7, Loss, Win, Draw, Draw. All Atalanta defeats bar 1 have come v the top 10. So if both sides were to drop points, it would be v a fellow top 5 side.
  • I note Atalanta scored 5 goals in 2 away v 3rd and 4th so could click (and will have confidence with a 5 goal haul latest).
  • Inter are top of the tree and looking solid but remember that top 7 form! 1-1-0 scored v the top 3 might see them blunted v 4th. They need Lukaku to get a 2nd goal today.
  • A fascinating match where I cannot readily dismiss Atalanta.
  • I would have layed the 0-0 in the halftime score market but 33% is a high% for 0-0's at halftime away for Atalanta.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Crystal Palace v Arsenal - 1.98 Arsenal

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/9 C Palace home matches against middle-third teams and in 6/8 Arsenal away matches against middle-third teams. C Palace have drawn the first half in 8/10 home matches.
  • A couple of pointers to me not jumping in here. New manager for Arsenal and a London Derby.
  • 1-2 loss v Chelsea and 2-0 win v Man Utd for Arsenal under Arteta.
  • Palace beat West Ham recently in a London Derby and it was 2-2 the last time these 2 met in a London Derby.
  • Palace have scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches with 3 1-1 scorelines.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home for Palace is quite something and may keep Arsenal dry first half but of course we simply don't know under a new manager how Arsenal will react.
  • Angles? Nothing much until we see Arteta patterns for Arsenal. 80% of Palace home matches are 0-0 at halftime with only 1 0-0 at fulltime so that is an angle in from a neutral perspective.

Wolves v Newcastle - 1.53 Wolves

  • Match outcome: Wolves have won 10/18 home matches while Newcastle have lost by two or more goals in 5/10 trips to top-half teams. Newcastle have lost 13/20 away matches against top-half teams.

Wolves - 7th

  • 2 consecutive losses came away v Liverpool and Watford - the latter may have been down to the enthusiasms of a new manager for Watford.
  • Only 2 home losses for Wolves came v London sides.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Scored in their last 10 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v teams below them in the league.
  • A few too many 1-1's though!
  • 13 of 16 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Newcastle-13th

  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • 3 losses in 4 away.
  • No draw in 10 away.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Have lost to all top 5 away but beat 6th and 8th to nil.

Conclusions

  • The market has got it right in the past regarding taking on Newcastle. The last 3 matches a good case in point. Steve Bruce has been moaning about fatigue and injuries so the expectation is for a simple Wolves win. The draw does haunt Wolves at home though. That is a worry.
  • Wolves do score a lot of 2nd half goals at home so please factor that in.

Leicester v Southampton - 1.58 leicester

  • 1st goal: Leicester have conceded first in 6/10 home matches against middle-third teams while Southampton have scored first in 8/10 away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 7/11 Southampton away matches.

Leicester - 2nd

  • Only 4 losses but it takes a good un to beat them.
  • Recent losses v Man City and Liverpool.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 6th and lower.
  • 14 of 19 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Southampton - 12th

  • Yes, 12th!!!
  • 3 wins and a draw in 4. Since 30th November, 5 wins, 2 losses and a draw.
  • 2 consecutive away wins.
  • Scored in their last 9 away.
  • 50% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All defeats v the top 3 including a 0-9 v Leicester.
  • 10 of 13 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • We may see an over-reaction defensively from the Saints today, after that 0-9 drubbing by Leicester last time these 2 met.
  • Saints are in a far better place after a bumper Christmas. The market still expects Leicester to prevail.
  • Do remember Leicester do score 2nd half at home and if we get that over-reaction defensively from Saints, we may see a barren first half.

Man Utd v Norwich - 1.33 Man Utd

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 6/8 Man Utd home matches against bottom-six teams and +3.5 goals in 5/8 Man Utd such matches. Norwich have lost 7/10 away matches.

Man Utd - 5th

  • 2 wins in 3 matches.
  • No defeat in 8 at home.
  • Scored last 10 at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 home loss.
  • Beat Norwich 1-3 the last time these 2 met this season.

Norwich - 20th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 2 consecutive score draws.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away (40%).
  • Not played 3rd-8th away inclusive.
  • 11 of 16 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • It should be as emphatic as the market suggests. Only once have Norwich scored that 2nd goal away. Man Utd have scored in their last 10 at home but are conceding at home so may require 2/3 for the win. They look good at home. No defeat in 8.

Chelsea v Burnley - 1.33 Chelsea

  • Match outcome: Chelsea have won 14/20 home matches against bottom-six teams while Burnley have lost by two or more goals in 5/10 trips to top-six teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 13/14 Burnley away matches against top-six teams.

Chelsea - 4th

  • 5 losses in 9 a real bump in the road.
  • Win and draw last 2 matches.
  • 3/4 home matches were losses.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Muddling home form. 3 of 4 defeats at home though saw Chelsea fail to score.

Burnley - 15th

  • Winning and losing in bursts.
  • 3 losses, 2 wins, 3 losses , 2 wins, 3 losses recently.
  • All defeat bar 1 have come against the top 11 this season.
  • 7 of 10 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Chelsea have been in poor form recently But the market is more taken by the fact Burnley tend to lose to the top 11 this season.
  • Chelsea have lost 3/4 home matches and that is not form for 1.33 shots!
  • A watching brief here to see if the market is accurate.

Everton v Brighton - 1.91 Everton

  • 1st half outcome: Everton have drawn the first half in 14/19 home matches against middle-third teams and there have been -2.5 goals in 12/16 Everton home matches. Brighton have lost 11/18 away matches.

Everton - 11th

  • New manager for Everton so still a watching brief. Draw, Win, Win, 2-1 loss v Man City. 3 0-0's at halftime in 4 matches.
  • Scored in each of their last 3 matches.
  • And that's it under Ancelotti.

Brighton - 14th

  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches.
  • 5 losses,a  draw and a win recently away.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 away.
  • Only 2 away wins v 10th and 19th.

Conclusions

  • No strong angles until we see strong patterns from Ancelloti's Everton. They are keeping 0-0's at halftime. They have scored in their last 3 matches.

Tottenham v Liverpool - 1.74 Liverpool

  • 1st half outcome: Spurs have lost the first half in 6/9 home matches against top-six teams while Liverpool have scored first in 9/11 away matches. Spurs have conceded first in 6/9 home matches against top-six teams.
  • Form only under Mourinho.
  • 4 consecutive matches now Tottenham have lost at halftime. In 2 of those matches they lost at fulltime, in only one did they go on and win.
  • Losses under Mourinho v Man Utd, Chelsea and Southampton.
  • Win, Loss, Win, Win at home under Mourinho scoring 3-5-0-2 goals. Watch out though, Kane limped off with a muscle injury recently.
  • We all know about Liverpool, or is that LiVARpool. All wins bar a draw away v Man Utd.
  • 5 consecutive clean sheets is most unlike Liverpool but a new important pattern.
  • Liverpool have scored in every match.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime away is 22%.
  • v 4th-9th away, 1-2, 1-1, 0-1, 1-2. Tending towards one-goal-in-it matches.
  • Angles? What do we make of Mourinho v the higher positioned teams? Not good. Lost to Man Utd, Lost to Chelsea.
  • Should struggle today but Liverpool are just doing enough when they win v 4th-9th away. Tottenham are 6th.
  • Do remember Tottenham are on a 4 match run of losing at halftime.

SCOTTISH CHAMPIONSHIP

15:00 - Alloa v Arbroath - 2.42 Arbroath

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 10/15 Alloa home matches and in 7/10 Arbroath away matches. Alloa have drawn the first half in 5/9 home matches against middle-third teams.

Alloa - 10th

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Win and draw last 2 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 12 and last 6 at home.
  • 12 of 17 goals conceded at home came 1st half.
  • 0-1 and 2-1 losses v Arbroath already this season.

Arbroath - 7th

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • 0-0-1-0-1 goals scored recently away.
  • 2 wins and a 1-0 loss away v the bottom 3.

Conclusions

  • Alloa are unbeaten in 2 matches but are 2/2 in losses v Arbroath this season.
  • Arbroath are poor scorers away but have 2/3 wins v the bottom 3 away and look as if they should not lose today.

Dundee v Ayr United - 2.14 Dundee

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 4/5 Dundee home matches against top-half teams and they have drawn the first half in 3/5 such matches. Ayr have conceded first in 8/11 away matches.
  • 4th v 3rd today could see a competitive match. I will only really look at the Challenge Table with such a lowly league to see any patterns.
  • Noticeably Dundee failed to score at home v the top 2 in 3 attempts and meet 3rd today a side they have beaten 1-0 and 1-2 already this season. If there is to be a win it could a one-goal-in-it win.
  • Noticeably Ayr away are poor travellers v the big guns. 3/3 defeats away without scoring v the top 4, and a further defeat away v 5th placed Dunfermline (albeit they did beat them also away this season).
  • Ayr really come alive away v 7th and lower.
  • Angles? We may see a one-goal-in-it match today. Given Ayr's record for failing to score v the top 4 away, if they do score first they may not be able to follow up and could thus be layable.

Inverness v Queen of the South - 1.86 Inverness

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/10 Inverness CT home matches against middle-third teams and they have drawn the first half in 6/10 such matches. Q of South have conceded first in 14/20 away matches.
  • Again, Challenge Table only research here.
  • 2nd v 6th.
  • 2-0 wins already this season for Inverness v QOTS home and away.
  • v the top 6 home and away, Inverness have only lost to 1st placed so look warm order here.
  • They have not conceded a 2nd goal v 3rd-7th at home. A good foundation.
  • QOTS failed to score in 3/4 matches v the top 2.
  • Angle? Inverness look defensively strong v 2nd-6th home and away and do not tend to concede that 2nd goal. This is a ready angle if QOTS score first (unlikely to follow up?) Remember QOTS are 3/4 losses v the top 2 this season.

Morton v Dunfermline - 2.24 Dunfermline

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 13/19 Morton home matches against middle-third teams and in 12/17 Dunfermline away matches. Dunfermline have conceded first in 8/12 away matches.
  • 9th v 5th here.
  • 1-1 and 3-1 loss v Dunfermline for Morton this season. They have only lost 3 at home v 1st, 3rd and 8th.
  • Morton have scored in all home matches.
  • Patchy away form Dunfermline. Wins v 3rd and 8th only.
  • Angles? An abrupt halt here. Not the finest of teams here and a lack of reliability and readability for me to trade confidently. Let the in-play stats be your guide.

Partick v Dundee United - 2.12 Dundee United

  • Match outcome: Partick Th. have lost 10/14 home matches against top-half teams while Dundee Utd have won 7/10 away matches. Dundee Utd have scored first in 11/17 away matches.
  • 8th v 1st yet Dundee United are not stronger favourites.
  • 1-2 and 1-0 defeats for Partick already v DU this season sees 2 tight matches so watch out today.
  • Although they lost to 6 of the top 7 at home, Partick have done the double over 2nd placed Inverness. Hmmm.
  • 10 wins and a draw in 11 for Dundee United.
  • They have scored away last 5.
  • Losses away v 3rd, 6th, and 10th (twice) saw DU fail to score.
  • Angles? This may be a one-goal-in-it match with DU slightly favoured on superb recent form and scoring last 5 away (remember their defeats away saw them fail to score). I would expect a good Partick performance but for them not quite to cross that winning line.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

16:30 - Bordeaux v Lyon - 2.48 Lyon

  • 1st goal: Bordeaux have conceded first in 8/12 home matches while Lyon have won 11/18 away matches against middle-third teams. Lyon have scored first in 13/20 away matches against middle-third teams.

Bordeaux - 13th

  • 3 consecutive losses, 2 were 1-0.
  • 3 consecutive home wins ended with a 0-1 loss.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten 8th-15th home or away.
  • 3 home defeats were 0-1.
  • 5 of 7 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Lyon - 12th

  • Only 1 win in 4 matches.
  • No defeat 3 away, scoring last 5 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 6/7 defeats this season were 1-0, 2 of which came away.
  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • 8 of 12 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • A very interesting match in which the scoreline 1-0 pervades both teams in terms of defeat. It does suggest laying the first team to score and covering their 1-0/0-1 lead?
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market would be an option but for these incidences of 1-0 defeats.

Toulouse v Brest - 2.22 Toulouse

  • 1st half outcome: Toulouse have drawn the first half in 12/14 home matches and there have been -2.5 goals in 12/18 Toulouse home matches. Stade Brestois have conceded first in 7/9 away matches.
  • I really don't like France, but will take a quick look at these on a relatively quiet day for elite league football.
  • If you're squeamish look away now. 9 consecutive defeats for Toulouse. 4 consecutive away defeats for newly promoted Brest.
  • Toulouse have conceded last 15 matches and last 7 at home.
  • 56% 0-0 at halftime at home is high but no 0-0 fulltime so lay and 2nd half 0-0 here.
  • 1-0 v 16th and 2-0 v 18th for a Toulouse at home and they play 15th today. They could perform better v these strugglers? Must keep a clean sheet you feel.
  • 7 of 9 Toulouse goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Brest have failed to score last 3.
  • They have lost away to 18th and 19th and play 20th today.
  • Angles? Do please tread warily. A favourite with 9 consecutive defeats! Wow! But note the wins v 16th and 18th at home for Toulouse compounded with Brest's losses v 18th and 19th away and we may have an angle whereby we slightly, begrudgingly, favour Toulouse who have been living up to their pronuunciation this season.
  • Note 0-0's at halftime tend to end 2nd half.

Je N'aime pas le French Ligue so I will not be researching these 2 matches with 2.4+ favourites. Totally off-putting match odds in what is already a tough league to read (outside of the obvious teams).

Amiens v Montpellier - 2.54 Montpellier

  • 1st half outcome: Amiens have drawn the first half in 12/19 home matches while Montpellier have drawn 6/9 away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been -2.5 goals in 8/11 Montpellier away matches.

Metz v Strasbourg - 2.64 Strasbourg

  • 1st goal: Metz have scored first in 5/9 home matches while Strasbourg have conceded first in 7/11 away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 8/12 Strasbourg away matches against bottom-six teams.

Nimes v Reims - 2.3 Reims

  • 1st goal: Nimes have conceded first in 6/8 home matches against top-six teams while Reims have scored first in 7/11 away matches. Nimes have lost 5/8 home matches against top-six teams.

Angers v Nice - 2.12 Angers

  • 1st half outcome: Angers have drawn the first half in 6/10 home matches against middle-third teams and there have been -2.5 goals in 8/11 Angers home matches. Nice have conceded first in 8/9 away matches against top-half teams.

Angers - 8th

  • 0-0 and a win last 2 matches ended a run of 3 defeats.
  • Only 1 home loss v 7th and lower. Failed to concede that 2nd goal in those matches.
  • 5 of 6 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Nice - 10th

  • Win, Draw, Win last 3. 2 home wins. 0-0 away.
  • No win in 7 away. Not nice.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 1 away win v the top 15 was a 1-2 v 3rd.
  • 10 of 15 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • This could be tight. Back 0-0 pre match to pre-empt this?
  • Angers do not tend to concede 2 goals v 7th and lower at home. Nice don't tend to score 2 goals away and are on a Danny Dyer run at the moment. 7 without a win away. Their wins were 1-2 away but that 2nd goal has been very absent. It suggests laying Nice if Nice score first given they are unlikely to score that 2nd goal.

PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA

20:30 - Setabul v Sporting Lisbon - 1.25 Sporting Lisbon

  • Given the success of last night's 2 big guns coming from behind, pay attention to this one tonight.
  • Setabul have 2 wins in 3 matches but only 3 home wins all season.
  • All 3 home wins were 1-0.
  • Setabul are undefeated in 8 home matches. 100% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • They are yet to play the top 5 at home. and lost to them all away without scoring.
  • 2 losses in 3 away for Sporting sees them losing touch with Benfica and Porto at the top, both of whom won from behind last night.
  • Sporting have played 8th-12th away and not won. They play 10th today.
  • Angles? Sporting are nowhere near as strong a candidate as the Big 2 last night. They play a Setabul who know how to defend and backing 0-0 pre match might yield something.
  • Compound this with Sporting not beating 8th -12th away and there may be trouble ahead.... BUT Setabul have lost, without scoring, to all top 5 away that they have played (Albeit not played them yet at home).
  • A very interesting match where there is an argument to lay Sporting, particularly if they lead. This Setabul look mean in defence.