The big shock yesterday was the Andorra 1-0 win v Hungary. I admit, I lost out there backing Hungary very late on at very nice odds and laying Andorra at very short odds. It was a betting market which revealed a total lack of confidence in Hungary. It was amazing how quickly these pre-match 1.14 shots reached, and exceeded evens!
Today sees more World Cup qualifiers and I have a few trading angles. There are several matches where I think 0-0 could prevail for a while. I tend to back 0-0 pre match at its highest point and then lay at halftime if lucky enough to see a 0-0 then. Unbackable shots like Germany deserve a correct score punt in order to create value. The ideal here is to find a bookmaker to place your correct score bets who offers an in-play cash out facility.
The big match is Scotland v England and I personally feel the England side are too polished to lose today. They are a side yet to concede playing a Scots side who have scored 1-0-0-1-1 goals. They cannot get that 2nd goal. I am going to the Island of Sark with my parents today and hope to be back for the 17:00 kick offs. If available I will head straight to Twitter. No tennis trading now we are at the business end. The grass court season begins already with Surbiton. I will be busy trading the pre-Wimbledon tournaments so look forward to that. In France, Nadal beating Thiem has the ball firmly back in his court. Thiem beat Nadal in Rome but it is 3-1 Nadal now in recent head to heads. Thiem is a superb yardstick so watch out Stan! I must oppose any Wawrinka lead.
Ostapenko meets a Halep who has come back from the brink to get where she has. Logic suggests a 3 setter with the ladies. The market is firmly with Halep. Lay Ostapenko if Ostapenko wins the first set?
17:00 - SIovenia MaIta - 1.09 SIovenia
- 0-1 SIovenia the Iast time these 2 met. The market expect 3/4 goaIs from SIovenia today with home advantage.
- A tight Group F away from Ieaders EngIand and goaI difference may pIay a part.
- SIovenia are not proIific and that is their onIy probIem here transIating 1.09 into a win.
- 2-2 v Iithuania, 1-0 win v SIovakia, 0-0 with EngIand, 0-1 win v MaIta, and 1-0 Ioss to ScotIand.
- 4 consecutive home cIean sheets may be SIovenia's saving grace if they can onIy score one goaI today.
- 5-2-2-1-3 goaIs conceded by MaIta recentIy.
- I may be mischievous here and back 0-0 pre match in the hope this SIovenian side have troubIe scoring their IikeIy singIe goaI.
- I tend to trade out at haIftime if Iucky enough to see a 0-0 at haIftime.
- If 0-0 at haIftime I wouId revert to 1-0 or 2-0 here today for the 2nd haIf.
17:00 - Kazakhstan v Denmark - 1.52 Denmark
- 4-1 Denmark the last time these 2 met.
- this is bottom v 2nd in Group E and Denmark have a realistic chance here at least for 2nd spot.
- No win yet for the Kazaks who conceded 2 goals at least in all bar 1 match.
- A 0-0 with Romania last home match is an improvement.
- Denmark have only lost to Poland and Montenegro.
- No away win for the Danes and a 0-0 also with Romania latest.
- I would take a chance, were I to play, of backing 0-0 pre match and hoping the Kazaks are set up to be tough to score against as per their recent home match. I tend to trade out at halftime.
17:00 - ScotIand v EngIand - 1.74 EngIand
- A derby, a fierce rivaIry, but a feeIing too that this is Scottish Premiership v EngIish Premiership from a quaIity perspective.
- As I mention above this Group F i tight. EngIand have some breathing space but 2nd-4th are reaIIy tight.
- The 3-0 England win the last time these 2 teams met is telling. There is a distinct gap in the class of player.
- England are yet to concede and that is a brilliant foundation for success. 0-1 and 0-0 away v 2nd and 3rd suggests they do struggle away from home.
- You suspect if Scotland are to win today it will have to be a 1-0 because England are unlikely to concede that 2nd goal.
- If Scotland do score I find it difficult to think that they will keep England from scoring.
- Like the Danes above, back 0-0 pre match and hope the England struggles away of 0-0 and 0-1 return today. Scotland are limited but their support will ensure they are 100% motivated.
17:00 - Azerbaijan v Northern IreIand - 2.3 NI
- Group C sees NI only 2nd to Germany. Azerbaijan are 4th.
- An emphatic 4-0 NI when these 2 teams met in NI.
- NI must have a chance today. Azerbaijan have scored 1-1-0-4-1. They tellingly conceded 4 goals in each match played v the top 2.
- Azerbaijan have scored in their 2 home matches, a 1-0 win v Norway and a 1-4 loss to Germany.
- 0-0-2-0-0 conceded by NI is superb. They only conceded to Germany.
- 0-0 and 2-0 away for NI tells us they struggle for goals away.
- 2 goal shy sides therefore and I wheel out the 0-0 pre match back and hope it remains 0-0 til halftime where I would trade out.
- I would consider laying Azerbaijan if Azerbaijan score first. I will need prompting from the in-play stats to see what mood NI are in. This has the feel of a 1-0 or 0-1. NI may find it hard to replicate their 4 goals haul away from home.
19:45 - Montenegro v Armenia - 1.67 Montenegro
- Group E sees Montenegro 2nd and Armenia 5th.
- Montenegro are competitive. A draw and 2 wins and then 2 defeats were 3-2 v Armenia and 1-2 v Poland.
- 5-0 and 1-2 at home, they have a goal in them at least. Montenegro led 0-2 v Armenia before losing 3-2.
- No draw yet for Armenia sees 3 defeats and 2 consecutive wins v Montenegro and Kazakhstan.
- Once bitten, twice shy. Surely Montenegro if leading 2-0 will not succumb to defeat today?
- When an opponent has scored, Montenegro have scored too so that suggests to me to lay Armenia if Armenia score first.
- Lay any late draw and hope that Armenia continue to avoid draws.
19:45 - Lithuania v SIovakia - 1.75 SIovakia
- 5th v 2nd in Englands Group F.
- Given the tightness of 2nd, 3rd and 4th, Slovakia must be eyeing the win here against one of the minnows.
- Lithuanias only win was v Malta and that advertises their credentials.
- Slovakia won 4-0 at home.
- At home Lithuania have scored 2 goals v Slovenia and Malta. A real hope that they score today and they are very layable if leading 1-0 or, better yet, 2-0.
- Slovakia have only lost to England and Slovenia, and only then the score was 1-0. 3-4-3 goals scored against the rest.
- 1-0 and 1-3 away for Slovakia.
- I cannot see Lithuania win and do acknowledge their 2-2 v Slovenia as suggesting that at home they have something. I will be opposing any Lithuania lead in this match.
19:45 - Germany v San Marino - 1.01 Germany
- UnbackabIe Germany. It's aII about goaIs if you want a pIay.
- 0-8 the Iast time these 2 met.
- 6-0, 8-0, 12-0 my 3 pIays today. I wouId back with a bookie who has a cash out faciity in-pIay. There is nothing Iike the match ending 11-0 and you couId not profit!
19:45 - PoIand v Romania - 1.58 PoIand
- Poland lead Group 3 and it is tight away from the Poles.
- 0-3 Poland the last time these teams met.
- Poland have been superb and have scored either 2 or 3 goals in every match. It does help when Lewandowski is your main striker.
- Poland do have a habit of conceding when leading. They led 0-2 v Kazaks, that ended 2-2. They led 3-0 v Denmark, that ended 3-2.They led 1-0 v Armenia, that went 1-1 then 2-1.They led 0-1 v Montenegro, that went 1-1 then 1-2.
- 1-5-0-0-0 scored by Romania latest. They lost 0-3 to Poland.It does not augur well for what I had wanted to do in this match, which is to lay Poland if they lead 2-0 or greater. We will get very short odds. Complacency is Polands only enemy here. There are 5 matches remaining and the Poles do have a 6 point gap so it is not done and dusted yet.
- Lewandowski is highly likely to score. Fun scorecast on 3-0, 3-1, 3-2 and Lewandowski to score?
- Romania did concede 11th minute last time these 2 met but the other 2 goals came 82nd and 90th minutes. So this may not be a first half blitz for Poland today.
19:45 - Norway v Czech RepubIic - 2.74 Norway
- Group C sees 5th and 3rd and realistically the Czechs are more likely to qualify.
- Norway have lost 4 and 1 win only v San Marino. Dire stuff. 0-0-4-1-0 scored. Obviously light weight in front of goal.
- A 2-1 defeat to the Czechs saw the Czechs lead 2-0 and Norway score an 86th minute goal. 3 of their goals v San Marino were post 77th minute goals. Their first half goal v San Marino was an own goal.
- Norway, if scoring, are more likely to score late 2nd half which suggests that the Czechs, by default, are the more likelier 1st goal scorers if there is to be a goal.
- 3-0 loss to Germany and 0-6 away v San Marino tells us little about what to expect from the middle teams in this group.
- I would speculatively back Czechs in the halftime market only based on a greater likelihood that they will be the first goal scorers, albeit based on a very small sample of matches.
- The market cannot split the teams but I personally would be a Norwegian layer if Norway score first. Czechs struggle to score v the better sides but tellingly got those 2 v Norway and 6 v San Marino.