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English Premier League

12:30 - Man City v Leeds - 1.25 Man City

  • No indepth research here. Expectations are clear. The only negative for Man City is post-Champions League fatigue.

15:00 - Liverpool v Aston Villa - 1.44 Liverpool

Liverpool - 7th

  • A match Liverpool don't really need, sandwiched between 2 Champions League fixtures and carrying a 3-1 loss from the first leg. Surely there will be some team changes?
  • 6 consecutive home defeats failing to score in 5 of those.
  • 2 consecutive wins did come away.
  • 7-2 loss last head to head.
  • Not beaten 8th and 9th home or away.

Aston Villa - 9th

  • Only 2 wins in 8 matches.
  • Win, Draw, Win, Loss, Draw away.
  • 5 consecutive under 2.5 goals away.
  • Only 2 wins v the top 7 did come v Leicester away and that famous 7-2 at home v Liverpool.

Conclusions

  • A minefield for Liverpool. Surely they will be too focused on the upcoming 2nd leg match with Real Madrid. Will Klopp make team changes? Will Liverpool end this horrendous 6 match home defeat record? Surely that latter record is something Klopp is keen to see end?
  • Only 1 loss in 5 away for Aston Villa.
  • I must watch this match via in-play stats.

17:30 - Crystal Palace v Chelsea - 1.50 Chelsea

  • This is a London Derby.
  • This is a sandwich match for Chelsea inbetween 2 Champions League matches with Porto.
  • 2-5 Chelsea loss v West Brom was the perfect storm of post International, pre Champions League.
  • The loss was the first under Tuchel for Chelsea. That ended a run of 5 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 1-0-0-0-1 goals scored at home recently by Crystal Palace.2 0-0's and a 1-0 win last 3 home matches.
  • Angles? Not a match for pre-match form research given the London Derby factor and Champions League sandwich for Chelsea. Look for potential team changes for Chelsea.

Spanish La Liga Primera

13:00 - Getafe v Cadiz - 2.00 Getafe

Getafe - 15th

  • Only 1 win in 11 matches.
  • 3 consecutive draws, 2 were 0-0.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home, 2 at fulltime.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 10th and lower.
  • 0-2 win last head to head.
  • 8/10 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Cadiz - 13th

  • Only 2 losses in 6. 2 wins in 6 did come at home.
  • 2 1-1 draws and a loss last 3 away matches.
  • No win in 10 away.
  • Conceded last 10 away.
  • Unbeaten away v 10th and lower.
  • Conceded 9 goals 31st-45th minute away.

Conclusions

  • Both sides will expect a positive result here as Getafe have only 1 loss at home v 10th and lower, and Cadiz are unbeaten away v 10th and lower. That makes it tough to call. The head to head saw Getafe win away at Cadiz.
  • You may want to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market, given Getafe concede 80% of conceded goals at home in the first half and Cadiz have conceded 9 goals last 15 mins of first half away.

15:15 - Athletic Bilbao v Alaves - 1.91 Athletic Bilbao

Athletic Bilbao - 9th

  • Only 1 loss in 9 but 6 draws, and 3 consecutive draws currently.
  • Win, Draw, Draw, Win, Draw at home recently.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • Only 1 loss at home v teams below them in the league.
  • 1-0 loss last head to head.
  • 12 goals scored last 1/2 hour home matches.

Alaves - 20th

  • 6 losses and a draw last 7.
  • 5 losses and a draw last 6 away.
  • Conceded last 7 and last 4 away.
  • All defeats bar 1 away v the top 10.
  • 15 goals conceded last 1/2 hour away.

Conclusions

  • Watch out for goals 60th minute + if a quiet first 2/3rd of the match.
  • Alaves away form is so poor they have to be opposed and Athletic Bilbao are in good recent form, albeit far too many draws.

17:30 - Eibar v Levante - 2.15 Eibar

Eibar - 19th

  • No win in 12.
  • Conceded last 12 and last 5 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home, 4 at fulltime.
  • 2-1 loss last head to head.

Levante - 11th

  • 3 losses in 4 matches saw them fail to score.
  • 2 consecutive away defeats to nil.
  • 8 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away, none at fulltime.
  • Unbeaten away v 13th and lower, scoring and conceding.

Conclusions

  • Poor recent form both sides and an Eibar, with no win in 12, are the market's tentative favourite!
  • I fancy Levante on their unbeaten away form v 13th and lower. It does see both teams score so note that.

20:00 - Real Madrid v Barcelona - 2.25 Barcelona

  • It's tasty, tasty, very very tasty. Real Madrid are between 2 Champions League fixtures with Liverpool but surely will be fully wound up for el Classico.
  • We used to have a reliable over 2.5 goals and both teams to score pattern in head to heads but that has changed recently. Recently, 0-3 Barca, 0-1 Barca, 0-0, 2-0 Real Madrid, 1-3 Real Madrid (the most recent head to head).
  • Good luck picking a winner here!

German Bundesliga

14:30 - Bayern Munich v Union Berlin - 1.36 Bayern Munich

Bayern - 1st

  • Sandwich match for Bayern between their Champions League commitments.
  • All 3 defeats this season came away.
  • Not had a 0-0 at halftime this season.
  • 2+ goals scored last 9 home matches.
  • Scored in their last 27 and last 13 at home.
  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • 2+ goals scored in all bar 1 at home.

Union Berlin - 7th

  • 5/6 defeats this season came away.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away, only one at fulltime.
  • Lost to 2nd and 4th away.

Conclusions

  • Will Bayern be distracted. They trail PSG in the Champions League. If not, then on form, we expect a goal before halftime, 2+ goals at least. Union Berlin, if losing, lose away. They have 2/2 losses away v the top 4.

14:30 - Frankfurt v Wolfsburg - 2.25 Frankfurt

  • A great battle this one between 2 really inform sides. Both sides have had only 3 defeats all season.
  • Frankfurt have scored in their last 22 matches, the Wolf in their last 7 away.
  • A top 4 clash, notably the Wolf have lost away v 1st and 5th. Frankfurt remain unbeaten at home.
  • Angles? These 2 don't have many faults this season. Are you taken by Frank's unbeaten home form, v the Wolf's 2 losses away v the top 5?

14:30 - Hertha Berlin v M'gladbach - 2.25 Mgladbach

Hertha - 14th

  • 2 consecutive home wins, a rarity.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • v the top 9, only 2 wins v 6th and 7th (the latter the Berlin derby).
  • 1-1 last head to head.

Mgladbach - 9th

  • 4 consecutive defeats ended with 2 consecutive wins.
  • 23% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not played 12th-14th away but lose to those above and beat those below.

Conclusions

  • Messy form, both sides hitting a 2 match winning streak which patches over some iffy prior form.
  • Chance a lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Hertha.

14:30 - Werder Bremen v Leipzig - 1.50 Leipzig

Werder Bremen - 13th

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • 2 consecutive home defeats.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 at home.
  • 2-0 loss last head to head.
  • Scored and conceded at home v the top 4.
  • 9/13 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 13/19 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Leipzig - 2nd

  • Only 1 loss in 9 came v Bayern Munich latest.
  • 4 consecutive away wins.
  • Scored in their last 10 away.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v 10th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Must wins now for Leipzig to keep tabs on Bayern Munich. They are good on the road with 4 consecutive away wins. Werder do score and concede at home v the top 4 but usually in defeat so watch out for a goal from them today.

17:30 - Stuttgart v Dortmund - 1.85 Dortmund

Stuttgart - 8th

  • Only 1 loss in 7 came v Bayern Munich.
  • 4 wins and a draw last 5 at home.
  • No defeat in 6 at home.
  • Not beaten top 10 at home but draws v 4th-9th at home.
  • 8 goals scored last 15 mins of home matches.

Dortmund - 5th

  • Sandwich match for Dortmund with Champions League the distraction.
  • 2-2 and 1-2 loss recently, both I would say had that Champions League distraction playing a part.
  • Scored last 25 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 away.
  • A significantly poor away run v top 11 - one win, one draw and 6 defeats, scoring and conceding in 5 of those defeats. Remember Roma v Sassuolo last week.....?
  • 19/27 goals scored away 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Beware Dortmund SUCK away v the top 11 and play 9th today so may be layable if conjuring up a 0-2 lead.
  • Remember they score 2nd half as well. We may see both teams score and Dortmund not necessarily win.
  • Stuttgart are on a good run at home and have drawn 4th-9th at home.

Italian Serie A

14:00 - Spezia v Crotone - 1.80 Spezia

Spezia - 16th

  • Only 1 win in 7 came v Cagliari last home match.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, only once at fulltime.
  • 4-1 loss last head to head.
  • Unbeaten at home v 14th and lower. 3 score draws and a win.

Crotone

  • 10 losses and a win last 12 matches.
  • No win in 15 away.
  • 9 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded last 17.

Conclusions

  • Spezia favs by default really. Only 1 win in 7 but 9 consecutive away defeats for Crotone.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.

17:00 - Parma v AC Milan - 1.67 AC Milan

  • An 11 point gap to top placed Inter Milan sees AC Milan in desperate need of points.
  • Parma we know have goals in them! 2-2-1-3-2-1-2 goals scored recently so do have this in the back of your mind. Despite all that scoring, they have only won one match in that run.
  • Only 1 loss in 6 for Milan but only 3 wins = dropped points.
  • 7 wins and a loss away for Milan and the ability to score 2 goals away in all bar 1 match augurs well v a Parma who, to remind you, may score today.
  • Parma did keep Roma out in a 2-0 win but that is the exception and not the rule.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Parma's conceding of 2 goals at least v the top 6.

19:45 - Udinese v Torino - 2.25 Udinese

Udinese - 12th

  • Only 1 loss in 10 looked superb but it is now 2 consecutive defeats albeit v solid yardsticks Atalanta and Lazio.
  • Win, Win, Win, Loss at home latest.
  • 2-3 win last head to head.

Torino - 17th

  • 2-2 v Juventus latest. 4 losses and a draw last 4.
  • 2 consecutive away losses.
  • Only 1 win home and away v the top 12.
  • 19 goals in the last 15 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

  • Torino's away form is poor v the top 12 and that may seal their fate against an Udinese who have been in excellent form bar losses to the big guns. Torino are not a big gun!

French Ligue 1

16:00 - Strasbourg v PSG - 1.73 PSG

  • Match outcome: Paris St-G have won 13/14 away matches against middle-third teams and they have had W/W double results in 7/9 such matches. Strasbourg have conceded first in 8/9 home matches against top-six teams.

20:00 - Montpellier v Marseille - 2.50 Montpellier

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/9 Montpellier home matches against top-six teams and in 15/20 Marseille away matches against top-half teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 5/8 Montpellier home matches against top-six teams.

Dutch Eredivisie

17:45 - Heracles v Willem-II - 2.10 Heracles

Heracles - 9th

  • Scored and conceded last 3 at home.
  • 4-0 loss last head to head.

Conclusions

  • An abrupt halt here. No strong patterns. Willem II don't tend to beat top 9 but whacked Heracles 4-0 at home. Heracles have lost away to 15th and 16th heavily but have beaten 17th and 18th at home. Leave to the in-play stats.

19:00 - AZ Alkmaar v Sparta Rotterdam - 1.50 AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar - 3rd

  • 7 wins and a loss last 8 matches.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • No draw in 13 and in 12 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored last 2 at home.
  • 4-4 last head to head.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 8th and lower.

Sparta Rotterdam - 11th

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Scored last 5 away.
  • Not beaten a top 7 side.
  • 11/15 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • If Sparta consistently fail to beat the top 7, I can see no reason for a reverse today, despite 3 wins in 4 in recent matches.
  • AZ look solid enough with 7 wins in 8 matches.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.

19:00 - Fortuna Sittard v Emmen - 2.15 Fortuna Sittard

  • 4 losses in 5 for Sittard ended what was a good winning streak.
  • 5 losses in 7 at home too.
  • Sittard have 100% wins at home v 14th and lower and do play 17th today so that augurs well for them, as does the scoring of 2+ goals.
  • 2-2 last head to head.
  • Emmen cannot be underestimated despite their lowly position. Putting together an impressive unbeaten run of 6 matches, albeit 3 1-1 draws in their last 4 matches.
  • 1-1-1 scored away last 3 matches without losing.
  • Emmen have only 1 win away, a 0-1 which came within that recent solid run.
  • Angles? Intriguing. Sittard will expect 2+ goals and the win but what do we make of this Emmen unbeaten run recently, a real surge to move up the table from 2nd bottom.

20:00 - Zwolle v Twente - 2.40 Twente

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 Zwolle home matches against top half non-Big Two teams and in 6/9 Twente away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 7/13 Zwolle home matches against top half non-Big Two teams.

Portuguese Primeira Liga

15:00 - Maritimo v Farense - 2.60 Maritimo

  • 1st half outcome: Maritimo have drawn the first half in 10/15 home matches as have Farense in 4/5 away matches against bottom-six teams. Farense have conceded first in 8/12 away matches.

15:30 - Boavista v Rio Ave - 2.60 Boavista

  • Match outcome: Boavista have lost 9/14 home matches while Rio Ave have won 6/10 away matches against bottom-six teams. Rio Ave have scored first in 8/11 away matches against bottom-six teams.

18:00 - Tondela v Porto - 1.44 Porto

Tondela - 10th

  • Only 1 win in 4 came last match.
  • 5 consecutive home wins ended v Sporting Lisbon.
  • 100% defeats v the top 5.
  • 4-3 loss last head to head.

Porto - 2nd

  • Unbeaten since the 8th November.
  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • 2 goals scored in 4/5 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 2-1 wins.
  • 100% wins v 6th-12th home and away.

Conclusions

  • Sandwich match for Porto having to claw a 2 goal deficit v Chelsea next week. If not distracted, and if scoring 2 goals as they have done recently, the win should come. Note Tondela were in winning form at home and only went down 0-1 to Sporting Lisbon so are likely to put up a fight. It was a humdinger last head to head.

20:30 - Pacos Ferreira v Benfica - 1.50 Benfica

Pacos Ferreira - 5th

  • The Ambassador's favourite team, Pacos Ferriera Rocher.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats but thankfully holding their own at home. 3 consecutive wins part of a run of 11 undefeated at home.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 at home.
  • They have beaten 2nd to 11th at home, scoring 2+ goals so that 1.5 for Benfica looks skinny.

Benfica - 3rd

  • 5 consecutive wins and may be favs based on their 8 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away clean sheets.
  • Have 1-1 draws v 2nd, 7th and 8th.

Conclusions

  • Fascinating. Only Sporting have beaten Pacos at home so Benfica will have to be at their best and perhaps throw in another clean sheet to have a chance at a win, what with Pacos regularly scoring 2 goals v 2nd to 11th (all wins).
  • Argument to lay Benfica at short odds if they lead, albeit the niggle of the clean sheets.