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I will do a video at DRT Facebook. I have researched a few matches from secondary leagues because it's a quiet day.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

20:00 - West Ham v Arsenal - 2.12 Arsenal

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 10/20 West Ham home matches and +2.5 goals in 9/10 Arsenal away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 6/8 Arsenal away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • New manager syndrome for the Arsenal as well as a London Derby does not make this match of any appeal.
  • Only 1 win in 9 plays no win in 7 matches.
  • West Ham have conceded 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 matches. Arsenal have conceded 2 goals in each of their last 4 matches.
  • Arsenal are unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower - West Ham are 16th.West Ham are competitive in London Derbies. 0-1 v Chelsea win, 2-3 loss v Tottenham, 1-2 loss v Palace.
  • I have absolutely no angles here. Freddie 'underpants' Ljunberg is not really making any impact yet.

ITALIAN SERIA B

20:00 - Perugia v Cosenza - 2.12 Perugia

  • Match outcome: Perugia have won 5/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while Cosenza have had D/L double results in 5/7 away matches against top-six teams. Perugia have scored first in 13/18 home matches against bottom-six teams.

Perugia (8th)

  • Only 4 losses all season.
  • 2 losses in 3 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 7 and last 3 at home.
  • Only home loss v 3rd.
  • Only 1 match played at home v 13th and lower (0-0).
  • All 6 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Cosenza (18th)

  • Only 2 losses in 10 matches came away within the last 3 away matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 2 wins.
  • Conceded last 6 away.
  • Only 1 win away v the top 9.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, Cosenza tend not to beat a top 9 side away from home so we should favour Perugia not to lose.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA 2

19:30 - Stuttgart v Nurnberg - 1.65 Stuttgart

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 4/5 VfB Stuttgart home matches against bottom-six teams and +3.5 goals in 5/7 Nurnberg away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 5/7 Nurnberg away matches.

Stuttgart - 4th

  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • All 5 defeats came within the last 7 matches.
  • 6 wins in 8 matches at home v 9th and lower.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 wins and a loss v 12th and lower at home.
  • 5 of 7 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Nurnberg - 16th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • No win in 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches, 2 consecutive matches.
  • Not played the top 6 away but lost to 7th and 8th.

Conclusions

  • Stuttgart are wobbling of late but, put in context tend to concede and more likely win v 9th and lower.
  • Nurnberg have not played the top 6 away but lost convincingly v 7th and 8th. Enough to trust a Stuttgart who are starting to lose all too frequently in their last 7 matches.

PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA

20:15 - Rio Ave v Gil Vicente - 1.76 Rio Ave

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 4/5 VfB Stuttgart home matches against bottom-six teams and +3.5 goals in 5/7 Nurnberg away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 5/7 Nurnberg away matches.

Rio Ave - 11th

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All 5 defeats came v the top 7.

Gil Vicente - 9th

  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 5 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not played 4th-12th away. Lost away to 1st, 3rd, 13th and 14th.
  • Only 3 goals scored away.

Conclusions

  • I thought I would research the match on a quiet day but it is worrisome that Gil Vicente have not played 4th-12th away. They did lose away to 1st, 3rd, 13th and 14th.
  • All 5 Rio Ave defeats came v the top 9. Better chance today v 9th?

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

19:00 - Jong AZ Alkmaar v Helmond Sport - 1.75 Jong AZ

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 5/9 Jong AZ home matches against bottom-six teams and +2.5 goals in 10/13 Jong AZ home matches. Helmond have lost 12/17 away matches.

Jong AZ Alkmaar (15th)

  • 3 wins in 4 matches at home.
  • Only clean sheet came 1st match of the season.
  • Conceded last 16 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 matches.
  • 2 wins and a draw v 17th and lower.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • 9 of 14 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Helmond Sport (19th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 matches.
  • Conceded last 12 matches and last 8 away matches.
  • Only away win v bottom of the league.

Conclusions

  • We expect goals today. Jong AZ look good at home and especially v the bottom 3.
  • Both teams could score, and on form, Jong AZ not lose.

19:00 - Jong Ajax v Roda JC - 1.33 Jong Ajax

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/10 Jong Ajax home matches against middle-third teams and in 5/9 Roda JC away matches against top-six teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 11/13 Jong Ajax home matches.

Jong Ajax - 3rd

  • Only 4 losses, 3 came away.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 home defeat v 4th.
  • 5/5 home wins v 9th-16th.
  • 16 of 25 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Roda JC - 14th

  • Scored and conceded last 6 matches with just one win.
  • 4 consecutive away draws, 3 1-1's.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No defeat away v the top 6.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 v the top 11.
  • Not played the top 3 away but at home, a loss and a draw.

Conclusions

  • Roda could score without winning. If they cannot beat the top 3 with home advantage, they could struggle away against a side with only 1 home loss v 4th.
  • Strong winning sequence v 9th-16th at home for Ajax.