Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Not the most inspiring of coupons today. There will still be a DRT shorties list at the DRT Facebook page.
I do hope you attended the live chats at the weekend. Both were excellent and very profitable.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 - RB Leipzig v Bayer Leverkusen - 2.34 Leipzig

  • 1-0 Leipzig and 2-2 last 2 head to heads.

RB Leipzig (5th)

  • 2 losses, 2 draws, 2 wins last 6 matches.
  • Beat Bayern Munich last home match.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 home matches.
  • Only 6 clean sheets.
  • Scored in their last 14 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 loss at home v top 17 at home.
  • Scored first in 10/14 at home.

Bayer Leverkusen (6th)

  • Failed to score last 2 matches and are looking unreliable of late.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime away (21%).
  • Only loss v top 9 away was v Bayern Munich. Wins away v 4th-9th inclusive away.
  • 18 of 25 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Bayer Leverkusen have a recent air of unreliability about them. Traders want readable teams, boring predictable teams. Bayer have had a number of very recent matches where they have failed to score.
  • Leipzig tend to score first so may negate any trading opportunity today in a bitty match for me.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home for Leipzig. Leipzig are scoring and conceding at home but can we rely on this Bayer side?

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Villareal v Atl Bilbao - 1.91 Villareal

  • 3-1 Villareal and 1-1 last 2 head to heads.

Villareal (6th)

  • 2 wins in the last 3 matches.
  • Loss, Win, Loss, Win last 4 home matches.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 10th and lower.

Atl Bilbao (13th)

  • Only 2 wins in 12 matches.
  • 4 consecutive 2-0 defeats away.
  • Conceded 2 goals in each of their last 5 away matches.
  • 6 losses and a win away v top 9 teams.

Conclusions

  • Strictly on form, the market has it right. Villareal only 1 loss v 10th and lower plays a Bilbao side with 6 losses v the top 9 so let's lay Bilbao if Bilbao scores first.
  • Bilbao are conceding 2 goals regularly away. Will we see a reaction or will this pattern continue today?

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

19:00 - Cambuur v Jong AZ Alkmaar - 1.59 Cambuur

  • 0-1 Cambuur last head to head.

Cambuur (10th)

  • Scored and conceded last 9 matches and in 7 of the last 8 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 16th and lower.

Jong AZ (15th)

  • 2 defeats in last 3 matches.
  • No draw in 17 away.
  • Have conceded 3+ goals away v 8th-12th inclusive.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late draw.
  • Expectation for both teams to score and over 2.5 goals.
  • If Jong AZ continue their pattern of conceding 3 goals v 8th-12th away, then they are naturally layable if leading.

19:00 - FC Eindhoven v Helmond - 2.08 FC

  • 0-0 last head to head.

FC Eindhoven (17th)

  • 11 losses in the last 14 matches.
  • No draw in 16 and in 16 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 13 at home.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in their last 8 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 3 wins v 16th and lower at home.
  • 21 of 32 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Helmond (18th)

  • Conceded 3 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 7 away.
  • Not beaten 16th and lower away.
  • 15 of 18 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late draw based on FC.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on an expectation for goals but this is 2 of the bottom 4.

19:00 - Jong Utrecht v Volendam - 1.89 Volendam

  • 2-4 Volendam and 2-1 Volendam in the last 2 head to heads.

Jong Utrecht (20th)

  • Jong look relegated. There are 12 points available this season and 12 points will take them 3rd bottom if 3rd bottom themselves lose all remaining matches.
  • Only 2 wins home and away v 14th and higher.
  • 24 of 32 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

FC Volendam (9th)

  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 matches.
  • 2-4-3 goals scored in their last 3 matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 6 away matches.
  • Conceded only 1 goal max away v bottom 6 sides.

Conclusions

  • I would have to lay Utrecht if they score first. FC Volendam tend not to concede 2 goals v bottom sides.
  • Strong 2nd have bias goals wise if 0-0 at halftime.

19:00 - Emmen v Telstar - 1.72 Emmen

  • 0-0 last head to head.

Emmen (7th)

  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches.
  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 home matches.
  • 3 goals conceded at home last 2 matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v top 8.

Telstar (6th)

  • 3 0-0's in the last 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in the last 4.
  • Not beaten top 8 away from home, conceding 1-1-0-0-0 goals.

Conclusions

  • Although these 2 are top 7 sides, I think Telstar are having the colleywobbles infront of goal and if leading, they may not score a 2nd goal.
  • Emmen despite recent poor form remain unbeaten home and away v top 8. Enough to hang our hat on?
  • I would take on any late 0-0. Telstar cannot keep collecting 0-0's

19:00 - Den Bosch v Jong Ajax - 1.75 Jong Ajax

  • 1-2 Ajax and 1-0 Ajax last 2 head to heads.

Den Bosch (13th)

  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches came within their last 3 home matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Only 4 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 7 of 8 home matches v top 9.

Jong Ajax (2nd)

  • Only 4 draws were all score draws....no 0-0's.
  • Scored in their last 17 away.
  • Conceded in their last 8 away.
  • Away losses v 1st, 3rd, 15th, 16th and 20th.
  • 100% over 2.5 goals away.

Conclusions

  • Expectation for 3 goals total today and it seems both teams could score, particularly Jong Ajax who have scored in their last 17 away matches.
  • If 0-0 at halftime, back over 2.5 goals 2nd half.

19:00 - Waawlijk v Fortuna Sittard - 1.45 Fortuna

  • 6-0 Fortuna Sittard last head to head.

Waalwijk (19th)

  • Only 2 wins since 8th December 2017.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 2 losses at home v top 3.

Fortuna Sittard (1st)

  • 7 wins in 8 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away wins.
  • No defeat in 10.
  • 100% wins v 16th and lower away from home. 1-3 wins v 17th and 18th away.

Conclusions

  • On probability alone, Waalwijk should not be winning today.
  • 1-3 looks a reasonable starting point correct scores-wise.

19:00 - NEC Nijmegen v FC Oss - 1.19 NEC

  • 3-0 Oss in the last head to head.

NEC (3rd)

  • Only 1 win in 5 matches was a 3-0 last home match.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No defeat in 17 at home, scoring in those 17.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Not conceded 2 goals at home.
  • 10 wins and a draw at home v 8th and lower.

FC Oss (14th)

  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 12 matches.
  • 7 losses in 8 away.
  • 3 losses out of 3 away v top 4.
  • Conceded in all bar 1 away match.
  • 26 of 34 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • NEC are unlikely to concede 2 goals so lay OSS if OSS scores first.
  • NEC are unbeaten at halftime at home. Lay Oss in the halftime market if Oss score first and early first half.
  • Expect NEC to score at some point.

19:00 - MVV Maastricht v Dordrecht - 1.61 MVV

  • 0-1 and 2-4 MVV in the last 2 head to heads.

MVV (8th)

  • 2 losses in the last 3 matches.
  • No draw in 6 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v teams below them in the league.

Dordrecht (12th)

  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • No draw in 24 matches and in 17 away.
  • Scored in their last 16 matches.
  • Beats away v 5th, 7th, 11th v top 15 teams - all other defeats.
  • 13 of 19 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • On season long form, MVV should not lose v another team in a lower position than them in the league.
  • Dordrecht have scored in their last 16 matches - lay them if they score first today?
  • Lay any late draw -no draw in 24 matches for Dordrecht

19:00 - De Graafschap v Almere - 1.4 De Graaf

De Graaf (5th)

  • A draw and 4 wins last 4 matches.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime at home (17.6%).
  • Only 1 loss at home v 9th and lower.
  • Failed to concede 2 goals in those matches.

Almere (11th)

  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches. Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 8 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches away.
  • Not beaten a top 10 side away.
  • 100% defeats away v top 6.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.
  • 17 of 25 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • In Almere matches both teams are highly likely to score but on form Almere, if scoring are highly likely to lose v another top 6 side.
  • Let that be your angle.
  • Lay Almere if Almere score first.
  • Expectation for 3 goals total.