An introduction to some of the Summer Leagues today. Get used to them.The Swedish Allsvenskan, Norwegian Eliteserien and Irish Premier Division are great for trading (ask Seasoned DRT members!). Even the Finnish Veikkausliiga is worth following - the tendency there is to follow HJK Helsinki.
Elsewhere the big game sees Chelsea and Boro. Chelsea have scored first in 14/16 at home so we are unlikely to see any trading action....unless Middlesbrough can give them a fight!
18:00 - Lillestrom v Odd - 2.32 Lillestrom
- Welcome to the Norwegian Eliteserien. This league will be one of the leagues which sustains us through the summer months. The league is 7 matches old so patterns will begin to emerge.
- There will be no 100% stats just yet. I will look to past head to heads this early in the season and see if there are any noticeable patterns within the 7 matches played.
- 2-4 Odd and 1-4 Odd (friendly) in the last head to heads for these 2.
- This is 14th v 10th in a league of 16 after 6 matches played.
- No draw for Lillestrom yet this season.
- 2 0-2 losses and a 2-1 win at home.
- Odd's 3 wins have come at home. Away they have played 2 of the current top 3, losing 3-0 and 2-0 and lost 3-0 v current bottom.
- Very little to work with. Will Lillestrom avoid a draw? Will Odd score for the first time this season away? I would be more inclined towards laying the late draw.
- As I say the purpose of this research is to introduce you to the Norwegian Eliteserien. It is actually a good league to trade and a good degree of liquidity in the markets.
18:00 - Norrkoping v Sundsvall - 1.35 Norrkoping
- Welcome to the Swedish Allsvenskan - another good summer league.
- 5 consecutive Norrkoping wins in head to heads, both teams scored in their last 3 matches.
- This is 8th v 13th after 6 matches.
- The market is emphatic after only 6 matches. Norrkoping will win.
- 2 wins and a draw for Norrkoping in their last 3 matches, scoring 2-3-3 goals. A 3-3 draw last match.
- Norrkoping have only seen a 0-0 at halftime once.
- Sundsvall are yet to score in 3 away matches, a 3-0 defeat and 2 0-0 scorelines.
- 2 consecutive away 0-0's for Sundsvall.
- Hard to make accurate shouts after 6 matches.....but.
- 0-0 looks best case scenario for Sundsvall this evening. Norrkoping have scored 2-3-3 goals last 3 matches so expectation is for the home side to simply outscore the away side.
- I would be laying any late 0-0 today.
18:00 - Elfsborg v Malmo - 2.12 Malmo
- 2 consecutive 1-0 wins for Malmo in head to heads.
- This is 11th v 1st in the Swedish Allsvenskan.
- Malmo are a side to research and are probably the most famous Swedish side.
- They are unbeaten in 6 matches. They have 4 wins in 5 matches but markedly their 2 draws came away.
- Malmo failed to score in a 0-0 last away match.
- That broke a run of scoring 2/3 goals.
- Elfsborg are on a 2 match score draw run - 1-1 and 4-4.
- Loss, Win, Draw for them at home this season.
- All bar 1 Elfsborg match in 6 were over 2.5 goals.
- Tough to be emphatic with only 6 matches played. Current patterns? Malmo are unbeaten. 0-0 last match (I would seek to see this small 0-0 sequence end).
- Elfsborg patterns - 2 score draws (suggests laying Elfsborg if Elfsborg score first).
- Head to heads. 1-1, 1-0, 1-0 suggests tight match with Malmo the likelier winners.
18:00 - Ajaccio v Ajaccio GFCO - 2.78 GFCO
- I was interested in French Ligue 2 and will be fully researching the 2nd match because Strasbourg are league leaders. Here though I note the market odds and note that this is a local derby so will be swerving this. Just a lesson for you - pick and choose your battles!
19:45 - Lens v Strasbourg - 2.06 Lens
- Now that's the first shock for me! Lens are 6th and Strasbourg are top of French Ligue 2. But then on closer inspection, there are only 4 points covering the top 6. Lens go 2nd with a win. Strasbourg's gap at the top will be 5 points with a win.
- 3-1 Strasbourg earlier in the season.
Lens 100% stats
- Not beaten a top 7 side at home.
- Lost home and away to the top 2.
Lens other stats
- No draw in 11 and in 6 at home.
- 2 defeats in their last 3 at home.
- Only 1 0-0 at home.
- Only led once at halftime at home.
- Failed to score at home v top 4.
- 20 of 24 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
Strasbourg 100% stats
- No win away v top 8.
- Score draws away v 5th - 8th.
Strasbourg other stats
- 6 wins and a draw last 7 matches.
- Failed to score in only 6 matches.
- Only led twice at halftime away.
- The form tells us Lens tend to lose to top 2, fail to score at home v top 4 so why are they favourites? Is it because Strasbourg have not won away v top 8? That said, their score draws v 5th-8th inclusive suggests Strasbourg could equalize if lens happen to score.
- Note Lens strong 2nd half scoring at home.
- I would actually favour Strasbourg here not to lose (note the wording - includes the draw). They have superb recent winning form, albeit we must remember how poor they are away to title rivals.
- I would lay any late 0-0.
19:45 - Galway United v Derry - 2.36 Derry
- Welcome to the Irish premier division. This league is 12 matches old and, like Norway, will be a good league to follow throughout the summer.
- The odds suggest this match is too tight to call. I will take a quick look.
- 2 consecutive 0-0's in the league head to heads. Immediately I would be keen on laying any late 0-0 today. These 0-0 sequences are tough to keep going, as the natural inclination is to want to score goals.
- You will note at www.soccerstats.com that there is no 'Challenge Table' for the Irish Football. The 'Challenge Table' shows us the teams' positions in the league and how they have performed home and away. It is good for seeing how the bottom side plays against the top 4 for instance. Are there any patterns? That is what we have today. Bottom side v 4th. If you head over to www.fcstats.com you will find the Challenge Table there.
- Galway's season so far is blighted by draws. All 6 draws were score draws, 4 away and 2 at home v 8th and 11th.
- Galway perversely beat Dundalk 2-1 at home (3rd) and that was their only win. So 100% v top 4 at home (albeit a very small sample).
- 3 defeats for Derry this season, 2 came v top 2. They have 5 wins, 2 came away v 6th and 9th.
- Both teams have scored in 8 of Galway's last 9 matches. Derry have come off a run of 3 score draws with a win at home.
- With so many score draws, this suggests to me that Galway be layed if leading at any point. On form, we are with Derry but then where did that Galway win v 3rd at home come from?
- I would be laying the late 0-0. 3 consecutive head to head 0-0's would be a stretch.
- As the matches increase this season, we will find the Irish Premier Division to be a useful trading league.
19:45 - Leganes v Betis - 1.74 Leganes
- 2-0 Betis the last time these 2 met.
- This is 17th v 15th in the Spanish Primera Liga and the market has sided with the team which needs the points.
- 3 matches remain this season. Betis are safe from relegation. Leganes are 3 points above the relegation zone. With Depor having played a game more than Leganes and with a 2 point gap over them, this makes this match doubly important for Leganes to win.
Leganes 100% stats
- All home wins came v 14th and lower and were all wins to nil.
Leganes other stats
- 5 losses in their last 6 matches.
Real Betis 100% stats
- Scored and conceded in all away matches v 13th and lower.
- No 0-0 away.
Real Betis other stats
- 5 losses in 7 matches.
- Scored in 13 of their last 14 matches.
- Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
- 13 of 17 goals scored away came 2nd half.
- Needs-must v Season over is effectively what we have here. Good news for Leganes is that their wins at home have exclusively come against teams in Real Betis' position.
- Bad news? A strong both teams to score pattern for both sides, which if cropping up here again, means Leganes will need 2 goals at least today.
- Lay any late 0-0.
- Betis attitude may be questionable. Faith in the team which needs the points? Lay Betis if Betis lead therefore.
20:00 - Chelsea v Middlesbrough - 1.18 Chelsea
- 0-1 Chelsea in the last head to head.
- Chelsea have a game in hand and 4 points over Tottenham.
- Boro are 6 points shy of 3rd bottom so look doomed.
Chelsea 100% stats
- No home draw.
- Not conceded a goal in 4 matches v bottom 3.
- No 0-0.
Chelsea other stats
- 7 wins in their last 9 matches.
- In 18 of their last 19 matches, only 1 0-0 at halftime came last match.
- Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches at home.
- 88% over 2.5 goals at home.
- Scored first in 14/16 at home.
Middlesbrough 100% stats
- Not beaten a top 10 side.
- Not beaten a top 18 side away.
Middlesbrough other stats
- Win and draw last 2 matches. Drew at home with Man City 2-2.
- Failed to score in 6 of their last 7 away matches. Conceded 4 goals in each of their last 2.
- No win in 16 away.
- Chelsea's results v bottom 3 have been 2-0 or 0-1. They are yet to concede. Boro got 2 v Man City and still did not win. I could do with that tonight as there would be some trading to be had.
- I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market despite Chelsea's aberration v Everton.
- 1.18 odds signals 3/4 goals at least but note the above scorelines v bottom 3. A 7 point gap at the top for Chelsea with a win.
- Chelsea tend to score first at home so it is unlikely there will be any trading in this match unless a) Boro score first b) it is 0-0 for a while.