Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

A typical tricky Monday coupon sandwiched between Domestic League and Champions League. Monday is my usual day off but as ever if I see a trade I want to get on, there's no harm in passing it on to you.


English Premier League

18:00 - Chelsea v Everton - 1.55 Chelsea

  • 4th v 5th and new manager for Chelsea.
  • 6 clean sheets in 8 matches for Chelsea under Tuchel. Unbeaten but 2 draws in 3 matches.
  • Not conceded at home yet, but 2 0-0's and 2 wins.
  • Everton have won their last 3 matches without conceding v Liverpool, Southampton and West Brom, the latter 2 arguably easier assignments.
  • Everton are unbeaten in 9 away and have scored in their last 10 away.
  • Angles? A fascinating match and tough to call given the new manager syndrome for Chelsea. Both sides are in a clean sheet kind of a mood - Chelsea have seen at least a goal before halftime in all Tuchel matches bar the 2 0-0's which came at home. Back 0-0 pre match though given the Everton clean sheets?
  • The market is strangely very confident in Chelsea today. 3 consecutive wins for Everton is momentum.

20:00 - West Ham v Leeds - 2.10 West Ham

  • I keep saying every week that it takes a big top 6 side to beat West Ham. Recent defeats v Liverpool, Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool again and Man City. It is the kind of pattern in which Leeds do not fit!!
  • 4 wins and a loss at home recently, 2+ goals scored in 5 of their last 8 matches, West Ham are in really good nick. 1-2 win last head to head.
  • 6th v 11th. West Ham have lost only once v 8th-15th home and away.
  • They have conceded 10/13 goals at home 2nd half.
  • Leeds are hopelessly unreadable. Win, Loss, Win, Win, Loss, Loss away latest. 3-1-2-2-0-3-0 goals scored recently. Which Leeds turns up today?
  • Angles? I do not like unreadable sides like Leeds. Which Leeds turns up? If we stick, though, to the assumption that only one of the big guns will beat West Ham (and that ain't Leeds), then that is our angle in here.

Spanish La Liga Primera

20:00 - Real Betis v Alaves - 1.75 Real Betis

Real Betis - 6th

  • Only 1 loss in 9 saw them score 2 v Barcelona.
  • 3 consecutive wins, 2 consecutive 1-0 wins.
  • Scored last 11 and last 7 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • 0-1 win last head to head.
  • 11/15 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Alaves - 19th

  • Only 2 wins in 13 came at home.
  • 5 losses and 2 draws last 7 away.
  • Only 1 win home and away v the top 10.
  • 15/23 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • On known seasonal form, the home side look capable here, only losing to Barcelona and having 2 goals in them which will stand them in good stead.
  • They are scoring consistently too.

Italian Serie A

19:45 - Inter Milan v Atalanta - 2.00 Inter Milan

Inter Milan - 1st

  • 6 consecutive wins.
  • 9 consecutive home wins.
  • 2+ goals scored last 6 at home.
  • Scored last 12 at home.
  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • Outside of 2nd, all wins bar a draw at home, failing to score 2 goals at least only once.
  • 19 goals scored at home last 1/2 hour.

Atalanta - 5th

  • Only 2 defeats since 31st October.
  • A draw and 4 consecutive wins.
  • 4 wins and a draw away.
  • No defeat in 9 away.
  • Scored last 8 and last 7 away.
  • Unbeaten v the top 4.
  • 9/13 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Be warned. I see this as a match with 2 inform sides, big names, and these could go anyway. Look at Atalanta's 4-1 defeat to Napoli recently, and for a team unbeaten v the top 4.
  • 9 home wins in a row plays no defeat in 9 away. It is a toughie. Both teams are scoring too.

Portuguese Primeira Liga

20:15 - Belenenses v Benfica - 1.44 Benfica

Belenenses - 11th

  • 4 draws and a win latest includes a 0-0 v Porto.
  • No defeat 4 at home.
  • 2-0 loss last head to head.
  • 8/10 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Benfica - 4th

  • Only 1 loss since 30th November.
  • 5 draws in 8 is a concern.
  • Draw, Draw, Loss, Draw, Draw away is a concern.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 isn't!!
  • 10 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches.
  • Have only scored that 2nd goal once away v the top 15.

Conclusions

  • Keeping clean sheets, yes, but drawing away and drawing over all, and not scoring that 2nd goal nearly enough away v top half sides. Benfica's profile is a worry tonight. A good win last match at home but 10 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches means they are not scoring hugely if winning. Belenenses kept Porto to 0-0 latest but can they do so v Benfica who did beat them at home 2-0 earlier this season.
  • All in all, a poor profile for the favourite but if 4/5 clean sheets becomes 5/6 clean sheets, that is a good basis tonight.

GREEK SUPER LEAGUE

17:30 - AEK Athens v Apollon Smyrmis - 1.33 AEK Athens

  • A match based around the Challenge Table? Apollon have failed to beat any top 7 side and play 4th today, losing 3-4 to them last time.
  • They failed to score in 5/6 away v the top 7.
  •  100% wins for AEK home v 9th and lower, Apollon are 10th, and 100% wins v 10th and lower.
  • Angles? Short and sweet. If Challenge Table patterns continue, Apollon will not win....even if they score 3 goals again!!