Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

A typical Monday! There are a smattering of other matches which I will recount in the DRT review/preview video. No Telegram today.


ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

20:00 - Leeds v Crystal Palace - 1.87 Leeds

  • 4 wins in 7 for Leeds. 2 consecutive home defeats.
  • 11th v 13th. All of Leeds home wins came v 16th and lower.
  • 2 losses and now 2 wins for Palace v Wolves and Newcastle.
  • Only 1 win for palace away v the top 14.
  • Angles? This is unappealing. No strong angles. 2 sides winning in spurts. And a favourite, in Leeds, tending to win at home v 16th and lower.

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Atletico Madrid v Celta Vigo - 1.71 Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid - 1st

  • 15 wins and a loss last 16 matches.
  • 8 consecutive wins, and 8 consecutive home wins.
  • 2+ goals scored last 5 matches.
  • 0-2 win last head to head.

Celta Vigo - 11th

  • 3 losses and 2 draws last 5 matches.
  • Draw, Loss, Loss, Draw away recently.
  • All defeats home and away v the top 7.

Conclusions

  • I cannot desert Atl Madrid today. They look excellent and the addition of Luis Suarez makes them stronger in attack. Celta have not won in 4 away and 100% defeats v the top 7.

PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA

17:00 - Farense v Moreirense - 2.4 Farense

  • 3 Portuguese Primeira Liga matches see favourites at 2.4+ odds suggesting it is too tough to read pre-match.
  • Only 3 wins for Farense came at home.
  • They have conceded in their last 16 matches and last 9 at home.
  • 18th v 8th. Farense have not beaten the top 10 home or away. They failed to score that 2nd goal at home v the top 7.
  • Only 5 wins for Moreirense. They won their last 2 away matches so have that ultra recent form.
  • 2 2-0 wins for Moreirense v the bottom 2 augurs well today.
  • Angles? The market cannot split these 2 sides but the ultra recent form is with Moreirense. Can they make it 3/3 away from home recently? Can they replicate the earlier 2-0 win v Farense?

19:00 - Benfica v Famalicao - 1.3 Benfica

Benfica - 4th

  • Draw, Draw, Loss, Draw recently. In 5 of their last 6 matches, failed to score 2 goals.
  • 1-1 and 0-0 at home latest.
  • Failed to score last 2 matches.
  • No defeat in 5 at home.
  • Only home defeat v 3rd.
  • 1-5 win last head to head.
  • 6/8 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • 6 goals scored last 15 mins of home matches.

Famalicao - 17th

  • 6 losses and a win last 7 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 7 matches away.
  • Conceded last 7 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 6 side. 2/2 defeats away v the top 5.
  • 7/8 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Benfica are poor and failed to score last 2 matches. It has to be a watching brief. Head to head was emphatic but that was before this really poor Benfica run. I wouldn't be backing them with stolen money. An argument to lay them at the off at such short odds and in such poor form.

21:00 - Maritimo v Santa Clara - 2.66 Maritimo

  • Ouch. 2.66 the favourite.
  • 4 losses and a win for Maritimo last 5 matches. They lost their last 2 home matches.
  • Maritimo failed to score last 3 matches.
  • 11th v 7th. Only 1 win home and away for Maritimo v the top 8.
  • Santa Clara have 2 wins and a draw last 3 matches.
  • Draw, Win, Draw away for Santa Clara recently.
  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches for Santa Clara.
  • They have conceded in their last 8 away.
  • 2-0 win v Maritimo earlier this season.
  • Angles? Welcome to Monday. 3 tough Portuguese matches. The market cannot split these 2. Again, on ultra recent form, we'd favour a Santa Clara unbeaten in 3 away and with only the 1 loss in 6 matches.

21:00 - Belenenses v Guimaraes - 2.48 Guimaraes

  • Yikes! Another big odds favourite suggesting another toughie.
  • Only 3 wins for Belenenses and no idea why Guimaraes are not shorter priced favourites. They have only 4 defeats all season, and 3 consecutive wins and a draw last 4 matches.
  • Belenenses have kept 2 consecutive clean sheets including a 0-0 v Porto. Is that why Guimaraes are not shorter priced favourite?
  • Guimaraes have kept 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • No defeat in 8 away matches for Guimaraes.
  • Guimaraes are simply unbeaten away and did lose 0-1 in the earlier head to head.
  • Angles? I must favour Guimaraes but note the 2.48 the favourite - the market is not as confident. 2 consecutive clean sheets for Belenenses may give a clue as to why they are not written off here but Only 3 wins v only 4 defeats, it looks obvious to select Guimaraes for the most positive result?