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A quiet day today but I like the Malmo match, Norrkoping match and Osijek match as far as 'readable' matches go, and trading angles are concerned.

17:00 - Portimonense v Boavista - 2.58 Portimonense

  • No head to heads since 2013 suggests Portimonense are newly promoted. Newly promoted sides are worth following on the basis that they could struggle.
  • Portugeuse Primera Liga is tradable but I would recommend a focus on Sporting Lisbon, Benfica, Braga and Porto, the big 4. The other teams, such as todays' are much of a muchness.
  • Here is a quick look at the game based on last season -2.5 goals: Promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 56% of home matches against top half non-Big Three teams since 2012-13.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 4/6 Boavista away matches against promoted teams.
  • Boavista have drawn the first half in 4/6 away matches against promoted teams.

18:00 - Stromsgodset v Valerenga - 2.48 Stromsgodset

  • 2-0 Stroms win at home last head to head at Stroms. 1-1 draws last 2 head to heads at Valerenga.
  • This is 13th v 9th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.


  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 home matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 home matches.
  • Only 1 home loss.
  • No 0-0 at home.


  • Only 1 loss in 10 matches.
  • 3 draws in 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Done all of their winning all season v teams below them in the league.


  • Strictly on form, Valerenga will be feeling confident. Exclusively, their wins come v teams below them in the league. They are unbeaten home and away v teams below them in the league.
  • On that basis, and with the strong Stroms both teams scoring pattern, lay Stroms if Stroms scores first. But then I note Stroms has only 1 loss at home! Hmmm.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • 1st half outcome: Stromsgodset have drawn the first half in 5/8 home matches against top-half teams.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 7/9 Valerenga away matches against bottom-six teams.

18:00 - Djurgardens v Malmo FF - 2.56 Malmo

  • The home team has won the last 3 head to heads. 3-1 Djurgarden the last time Malmo visited. 3-2 Malmo last head to head.
  • This is 3rd v 1st in the Swedish Allsvenskan.


  • 5 wins in 7 matches.
  • Failed to score only 3 times, twice in the first 2 matches of the season.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 11 of the last 12 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 4 home matches.
  • All home losses v top 4 saw them fail to score.
  • Scored 11 home goals 61st minute onwards.


  • Only 1 loss.
  • 6 wins in 7 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • 0-1 wins away v 2nd and 5th.


  • Strictly on form, Malmo should not lose today. Only 1 defeat all season and tight 0-1 wins v top 5 teams. Contrast with Djurgardens failing to score v top 4 at home.
  • Djurgardens are in fine fettle goalscoring wise, but I ask you to note the above conclusion. Do they simply falter v the top 4?
  • Take a chance and lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Djurgardens but this may be a tight one.
  • Football form labs :+2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/9 Djurgarden home matches against top-six teams and +3.5 goals in 5/9 Djurgarden such matches.
  • Malmo FF have scored first in 11/12 away matches against top-six teams.

18:00 - Norrkoping v AFC Utd - 1.35 Norrkoping

  • Norrkoping has won the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 7th v 16th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.


  • Only 6 defeats, 4 came in the last 4 matches.
  • All home wins have come v teams 9th and lower.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.

AFC United

  • Only 1 win.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 7 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded in each of their last 9 aways.
  • All defeats away v top 9.
  • 16 of 21 goals conceded away came 2nd half.


  • If AFC keep a clean sheet first half, expect at least 1, more probably 2 goals conceded 2nd half.
  • This should be a straightforward home win so react if anything else.
  • Note Norrkoping has not had a 1-0 or 0-1 at home.
  • Match outcome: Norrkoping have won 10/12 home matches against bottom-six teams while AFC United have lost 8/9 away matches. Norrkoping have won by two or more goals in 6/10 home matches against bottom-six teams.

19:00 - Feirense v Tondela - 2.3 Feirense

  • Feirense is unbeaten in the last 4 head to heads.
  • This is the new Portugeuse Primera Liga and as I said earlier, let your focus be on Porto, Benfica, Braga and Sporting Lisbon.
  • 1st goal: Feirense have scored first in 3/6 home matches against bottom-six teams while Tondela have lost 9/13 away matches.
  • Tondela have conceded first in 5/7 away matches against top half non-Big Three teams.

20:00 - Osijek v Rijeka - 1.88 Rijeka

  • Rijeka has won the last 4 head to heads, scoring at least 2 goals.
  • A quick mention for this Croatian League match. There has only been 3 matches played so little to work with but some potential...
  • Osijek has had 3 consecutive 1-1 draws Rijeka has won all 3 matches, all at home, this season.
  • I would suggest laying the late 1-1 if we see a 1-1. Osijek cannot continue drawing.
  • The 1-1's also suggests we lay Osijek if Osijek scores first.

21:00 - Rio Ave v Belenenses - 1.89 Rio Ave

  • The only odds on favourite in the Portugeuse Primera Liga today.
  • 1-0 Belenenses 2-0 Rio Ave in head to heads last season.
  • 1st goal: Rio Ave have scored first in 7/11 home matches while Belenenses have conceded first in 9/10 away matches.
  • Belenenses have lost the first half in 6/10 away matches.