DRT Daily Research Bulletin, August 7, 2017
A quiet day today but I like the Malmo match, Norrkoping match and Osijek match as far as 'readable' matches go, and trading angles are concerned.
17:00 - Portimonense v Boavista - 2.58 Portimonense
- No head to heads since 2013 suggests Portimonense are newly promoted. Newly promoted sides are worth following on the basis that they could struggle.
- Portugeuse Primera Liga is tradable but I would recommend a focus on Sporting Lisbon, Benfica, Braga and Porto, the big 4. The other teams, such as todays' are much of a muchness.
- Here is a quick look at the game based on last season -2.5 goals: Promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 56% of home matches against top half non-Big Three teams since 2012-13.
- There have been -2.5 goals in 4/6 Boavista away matches against promoted teams.
- Boavista have drawn the first half in 4/6 away matches against promoted teams.
18:00 - Stromsgodset v Valerenga - 2.48 Stromsgodset
- 2-0 Stroms win at home last head to head at Stroms. 1-1 draws last 2 head to heads at Valerenga.
- This is 13th v 9th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 home matches.
- Scored and conceded in their last 5 home matches.
- Only 1 home loss.
- No 0-0 at home.
- Only 1 loss in 10 matches.
- 3 draws in 4 matches.
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
- Done all of their winning all season v teams below them in the league.
- Strictly on form, Valerenga will be feeling confident. Exclusively, their wins come v teams below them in the league. They are unbeaten home and away v teams below them in the league.
- On that basis, and with the strong Stroms both teams scoring pattern, lay Stroms if Stroms scores first. But then I note Stroms has only 1 loss at home! Hmmm.
- Lay any late 0-0.
- 1st half outcome: Stromsgodset have drawn the first half in 5/8 home matches against top-half teams.
- There have been +2.5 goals in 7/9 Valerenga away matches against bottom-six teams.
18:00 - Djurgardens v Malmo FF - 2.56 Malmo
- The home team has won the last 3 head to heads. 3-1 Djurgarden the last time Malmo visited. 3-2 Malmo last head to head.
- This is 3rd v 1st in the Swedish Allsvenskan.
- 5 wins in 7 matches.
- Failed to score only 3 times, twice in the first 2 matches of the season.
- No 0-0 at halftime in 11 of the last 12 matches.
- Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 4 home matches.
- All home losses v top 4 saw them fail to score.
- Scored 11 home goals 61st minute onwards.
- Only 1 loss.
- 6 wins in 7 matches.
- Failed to score only once.
- 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
- 0-1 wins away v 2nd and 5th.
- Strictly on form, Malmo should not lose today. Only 1 defeat all season and tight 0-1 wins v top 5 teams. Contrast with Djurgardens failing to score v top 4 at home.
- Djurgardens are in fine fettle goalscoring wise, but I ask you to note the above conclusion. Do they simply falter v the top 4?
- Take a chance and lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Djurgardens but this may be a tight one.
- Football form labs :+2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/9 Djurgarden home matches against top-six teams and +3.5 goals in 5/9 Djurgarden such matches.
- Malmo FF have scored first in 11/12 away matches against top-six teams.
18:00 - Norrkoping v AFC Utd - 1.35 Norrkoping
- Norrkoping has won the last 2 head to heads.
- This is 7th v 16th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.
- Only 6 defeats, 4 came in the last 4 matches.
- All home wins have come v teams 9th and lower.
- No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.
- Only 1 win.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- 7 consecutive away defeats.
- Conceded in each of their last 9 aways.
- All defeats away v top 9.
- 16 of 21 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
- If AFC keep a clean sheet first half, expect at least 1, more probably 2 goals conceded 2nd half.
- This should be a straightforward home win so react if anything else.
- Note Norrkoping has not had a 1-0 or 0-1 at home.
- Match outcome: Norrkoping have won 10/12 home matches against bottom-six teams while AFC United have lost 8/9 away matches. Norrkoping have won by two or more goals in 6/10 home matches against bottom-six teams.
19:00 - Feirense v Tondela - 2.3 Feirense
- Feirense is unbeaten in the last 4 head to heads.
- This is the new Portugeuse Primera Liga and as I said earlier, let your focus be on Porto, Benfica, Braga and Sporting Lisbon.
- 1st goal: Feirense have scored first in 3/6 home matches against bottom-six teams while Tondela have lost 9/13 away matches.
- Tondela have conceded first in 5/7 away matches against top half non-Big Three teams.
20:00 - Osijek v Rijeka - 1.88 Rijeka
- Rijeka has won the last 4 head to heads, scoring at least 2 goals.
- A quick mention for this Croatian League match. There has only been 3 matches played so little to work with but some potential...
- Osijek has had 3 consecutive 1-1 draws Rijeka has won all 3 matches, all at home, this season.
- I would suggest laying the late 1-1 if we see a 1-1. Osijek cannot continue drawing.
- The 1-1's also suggests we lay Osijek if Osijek scores first.
21:00 - Rio Ave v Belenenses - 1.89 Rio Ave
- The only odds on favourite in the Portugeuse Primera Liga today.
- 1-0 Belenenses 2-0 Rio Ave in head to heads last season.
- 1st goal: Rio Ave have scored first in 7/11 home matches while Belenenses have conceded first in 9/10 away matches.
- Belenenses have lost the first half in 6/10 away matches.