Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

As is the norm in an International Week, the Monday coupon is barren bar some secondary leagues. I can have a look at those matches but you would need to check the markets for liquidity to ensure they are tradable. No live chat today.

FRENCH LIGUE 2

19:45 - Le Havre v Riems - 2.84 Riems

  • Immediately the market is telling us to 'run away, run away'. 2.84 favourite? No thanks. In a quiet day I will research. You never know there may be an angle or two found.
  • 1-0 Reims and 1-1 Le Havre in the last 2 head to heads.

Le Havre

  • All defeats have come away from home.
  • Win, Win, Draw, Win, Win, Draw sequence at home.
  • No 0-0 this season.
  • Reims are top of the league and Le Havre are yet to meet top 3 at home.

Reims

  • No draws saw all wins bar 3 defeats.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 6 wins in 7 matches.
  • Losses away v 4th and 9th and play 7th today.
  • Conceded 0-2-2-3 goals away v top 10.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • You see this with these kinds of match odds. We end up being able to make a good argument for either side. Le Havre because they are unbeaten at home and Reims have conceded 0-2-2-3 goals away v top 10.
  • The argument for Reims? They are top of the league and have 6 wins in 7 matches.
  • No draw for Reims yet. Can we lay any late draw?

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA 2

19:30 - Nurnberg v Ingolstadt - 2.46 Ingolstadt

  • Another favourite post 2.4 odds is likely to see a muddling match to research.
  • These 2 have only recently met in friendlies. Ingolstadt I believe are newly relegated from the Bundesliga.

Nurnbeg

  • Only 1 draw was a 2-2.
  • 5 wins in 7 matches.
  • Only clean sheets came 1st 2 matches of the season.
  • Failed to score only twice, and did last match a 1-0 loss.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 8/10 matches.
  • 3 losses and a 2-2 v top 8. All wins squeezed in matches v 11th and lower. They are playing 9th today.
  • 6 of 7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Ingolstadt

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 7 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Beat 5th and 8th away and meet 4th today.
  • 8 of 10 away goals scored first half.

Conclusions

  • 2 teams with a strong set of recent form. 5 wins in 7 Nurnberg, only 1 loss in 7 Ingolstadt. Hence the 2.46 odds in the match odds market!
  • I think there is a strong both teams to score bias today and with Nurnberg scoring and conceding in 8/10 matches and 4/5 at home, and with Ingolstadt scoring 2+ goals in 6 of their last 7 matches, this both teams to score pattern should continue today.
  • Contextually, Nurnberg wins are coming v 11th and lower and Ingolstadt are 9th. What to make of that?
  • I would take a chance and lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Ingolstadt scoring 8/10 away goals first half.

GREEK SUPER LEAGUE

17:30 - Levadiakos v Lamia - 2.04 Levadiakos

  • These 2 last met in a friendly.

Levadiakos

  • Only 1 defeat came last match.
  • Far too many draws this season 5 in total.
  • 3 draws and 2 wins at home.
  • Only 1 over 2.5 goals match you would describe as being a typically Greek stat.
  • 0-1-1-2-1 scored at home and 0-1-0-1-1 conceded at home.

Lamia

  • Only 1 away win sees 2 consecutive losses now.
  • All defeats this season have so far come v the top 4. Levadiakos are 6th.
  • 2 of 3 wins came v the current bottom 2.

Conclusions

  • Lamia are a new name for me in the Greek Super League.
  • On form, I would give a cursory nod towards Levadiakos today. They do not tend to concede that 2nd goal at home which suggests we lay Lamia if Lamia lead.
  • Lamia have failed to score in home and away defeats v top 4. Will that extend to top 6?
  • This is unlikely to be a goal fest, Only one over 2.5 goals match for Levadiakos this season.

ITALIAN SERIA B

19:30 - Perugia v Avellino - 1.98 Perugia

  • 3-0 and 0-5 Perugia in the last 2 head to heads.

Perugia

  • 5 defeats and a 3-3 draw last 6 matches and odds on favourite?
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 6 matches.
  • No draw at home and no draw at halftime at home.
  • What a contrarian side. 3 wins v top 12. 2 defeats v 19th and lower.
  • 8 of 10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Avellino

  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • 5 defeats in 6 away.
  • Conceded 2 goals at least in 5/6 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet and failed to score only once.
  • No away draw.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 away.

Conclusions

  • Both sides are conceding 2 goals for fun. Will this continue? If so, back 2-2 pre match and hope for more fun and games from these 2 whose defences have obviously been to the Liverpool FC school of defending.
  • Lay any late 0-0. This should see goals in it.
  • Both sides are in a strong pattern of avoiding the draw so lay any late draw in the hope this continues.
  • Perugia have only had 2 0-0's at halftime so take a chance and lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Avellino are about as good on the road as Arsenal and look opposable if scoring first.