The usual quiet Monday...
ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
20:00 - Man City v Leicester - 1.18 Man City
- 'To me, to you'. It's Chuckle Brothers between Man City and Liverpool. Man City must win in response to Liverpool's win last match.
Man City (2nd)
- A win takes them 1st by 1 point.
- 12 consecutive wins, 8 at home.
- No draw in 28 and in 18 at home.
- Scored in their last 20 and last 18 at home.
- Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
- All wins bar a loss v Palace at home.
- Lost 2-1 to Leicester earlier this season.
- Scored first in all home matches.
- Excellent under 'Ted' Rodgers. I will focus only under recent matches with him.
- 5 wins, a draw and a loss recently. Vardy has scored on 8 occasions in those matches.
- Win, Win, Draw away recently scoring 2+ goals.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime under Rodgers.2+ goals scored in all bar 1 match recently under Rodgers.
- I have said it before when Man City are quoted at 1.18 shots. They do not perform as per 1.18 shots when priced as such.
- Look at the result v Burnley. Same odds as today. 63rd minute Aguero goal to make it 0-1 only.
- I will not, therefore, look for CIty to be scoring before halftime.
- I could even lay City at 1.18 pre match although that would require a Leicester opening goal for a trading angle.
- If this follows City 1.18 patterns, 0-0 at halftime, 1-0 fulltime, likely Aguero!! But.....this Leicester looks a decent unit.
- Man City and Liverpool though are the only 2 teams not cocking up their seasons in the last 5 matches (See Arsenal, Tottenham, Man Utd).
ITALIAN SERIA A
19:30 - AC Milan v Bologna - 1.68 AC Milan
- 7th v 15th.
- 4 matches remain this season. Top 4 is within Milan's grasp. Top 6 is next best aim for them.
- Bologna are only 5 points clear of relegation so this is not a dead rubber. Full steam ahead.
AC Milan (7th)
- Only 1 win in 7 matches.
- Only home loss this year came v Inter Milan.
- 3 consecutive 0 - 0's at halftime.
- Scored in their last 6 at home.
- Only 1 loss at home v 4th and lower. unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower.
- Did score and conceded in 4/5 matches at home v 14th and lower. 0-0 last time these 2 met.
- 11 of 16 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
- 6 0-0's at halftime at home (35%).
- Doing a great job in avoiding relegation.6 wins, a draw and a loss last 8 matches.
- 5 of the most recent wins did come at home.
- Loss, Loss, Win, Loss, Draw away recently.
- Only 2 away wins came v 3rd and 6th.
- Were this a home match for Bologna, I would give them an above-average chance today. Away form is in stark contrast though. 3 losses in 5 away.
- AC Milan are solid at home. Only 1 loss v 4th and lower and unbeaten v 13th and lower home and away. AC Milan may concede but should not lose. That would be my angle.
- I cannot discount an improved performance from Bologna given they are obviously in the best form of the season very recently and are highly motivated to avoid relegation.
- Not much form to work with here in Sweden but I would recommend you follow these matches and get to know the teams. This is a good summer league and will see some readable matches. There may not be the patterns immediately noticeable this early in the season.
18:00 - Elfsborg v Norrkoping - 2.64 Elfsborg
- Only 1 loss came away.
- 3 wins and a draw last 4 matches.
- Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match this season.
- Draw, Win, Win at home, 3-1 and 4-2.
- No 0-0 at halftime - 2-2-2-1-3-5 goals in total BEFORE halftime.
- Lost their first match then 4 draws and a win.
- Loss, Draw , Draw away scoring and conceding in all.
- Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match.
- 3-1-2 goals total in last 3 matches at halftime.
- Too small a sample of matches but for me, a strong both teams to score pattern for both sides. This suggests if 0-0 at halftime, you may be tempted with an over 1.5 goals (safe), over 2.5 goals (stretch) 2nd half? Or follow the in-play stats and note the first goal scorer. See if the opponent looks likely to score based on shots on/off target and corners.
- I would really expect goals before halftime albeit the sample is small. So if 0-0 after 20 minutes, consider laying 0-0 in the halftime score market.
- This all comes with the caveat that the sample of matches is too small really to be 100% confident.
18:00 - Helsingborgs v Djurgardens - 2.2 Djurgardens
- All 3 Helsingborgs losses this season came away.
- 2 wins and a draw at home saw both teams score.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime in 6 matches came last home match.
- No win in 3 for Helsingborgs.
- Only 1 loss for Djurgardens came last match. Win, Win, Draw away for Djurgardens.
- Djurgardens have scored in every match.
- Again, no ultra strong angles suffice to say any 0-0 at halftime should be vulnerable 2nd half.
- Both teams have scored in Helsingborgs home matches but Djurgardens 2 away wins were to nil.
GERMAN BUNDESLIGA 2
19:30 - Greuther Furth v FC Koln - 1.85 FC Koln
- German Bundesliga 2 was thoroughly unreliable if you saw the 2 matches during the live chat webinars so please note that. This interests me because FC Koln are top of the tree.
- 3 matches remain.
Greuther Furth (14th)
- Only 3 wins since 1st December 2018.
- Unbeaten in 6 at home.
- 10 0-0's at halftime at home (67%).
- Not beaten a top 6 side home or away.
- All draws at home v the top 5.
- Unbeaten at home v the top 11.
- 4-0 loss to Koln earlier this season.
- 18 of 21 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
- 14 of 19 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
FC Koln (1st)
- As with a number of league leaders, are the nerves getting to them? 2 draws and 2 losses last 4 matches.
- 4-4 and 3-0 loss last 2 away matches.
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- 4 losses away v 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 13th. v 14th and lower, Koln beat 15th, 16th and a draw v 18th away.
- 22 goals have been scored either side of halftime away.
- We see it in the Premier League. United, Tottenham, all waivering just at the wrong time of the season. Similar with Koln with only 2 points from their last 4 matches.
- On seasonal form, a draw seems best case for Greuther Furth but they are relegation threatened so you can be assured they will be 100% motivated.
- Very strong 2nd half scoring and conceding stats for Greuther Furth so if 0-0 at halftime, expect 2nd half goals.
- Koln have conceded 7 goals in 2 away so are nervy but only 3 of their 4 defeats away came v the fellow top 4.
TURKISH SUPER LEAGUE
18:30 - Trabzonspor v Kayserispor - 1.58 Trabzonspor
- 4 matches remain and Trabzonspor could ensure 4th place with a win today.
- 6 wins and 2 draws last 8 matches.
- 3 consecutive home wins.
- Failed to score in only 4 matches.
- No draw in 9 at home.
- 2+ goals scored in their last 3 at home.
- v 7th and lower, only 1 loss home and away.
- Beat Kayserispor 0-2 earlier this season.
- 21 of 33 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
- Only 1 win in 7 matches.
- Conceded in their last 7 matches.
- Unbeaten away v the top 8.
- On form, Trabzonspor are unlikely to lose today. Simple angle. Trabzonspor are motivated here.
18:30 - Alanyaspor v Konyaspor - 2.02 Alanyaspor
- A dead rubber for me. Alanyaspor cannot get a top 4 spot. Konyaspor are 6 points off the relegation zone so still need points.
- Only 3 losses since 7th December 2018.
- 5 wins and a draw last 6 at home.
- 4 consecutive home wins.
- No defeat in 9 at home.
- Scored in their last 7 at home.
- 8 wins and a loss at home v 10th and lower.
- Conceded 2 goals only once v 10th and lower.
- No win in 11 matches. 3 losses and then 3 draws.
- 2 consecutive 0-0's.
- Failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- 7 0-0's at halftime away (47%).
- v 5th and lower away, Konyaspor have only 1 loss, a 3-2 v 15th.
- 7 draws in 10 though away v 7th and lower.
- Alanyaspor are solid v 10th and lower, does that run to 9th? Konyaspor have only 1 loss v 5th and lower away, so cannot be discounted themselves.
- Not for me. I can make an equal argument for both sides.