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The usual quiet Monday...

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

20:00 - Man City v Leicester - 1.18 Man City

  • 'To me, to you'. It's Chuckle Brothers between Man City and Liverpool. Man City must win in response to Liverpool's win last match.

Man City (2nd)

  • A win takes them 1st by 1 point.
  • 12 consecutive wins, 8 at home.
  • No draw in 28 and in 18 at home.
  • Scored in their last 20 and last 18 at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • All wins bar a loss v Palace at home.
  • Lost 2-1 to Leicester earlier this season.
  • Scored first in all home matches.

Leicester (9th)

  • Excellent under 'Ted' Rodgers. I will focus only under recent matches with him.
  • 5 wins, a draw and a loss recently. Vardy has scored on 8 occasions in those matches.
  • Win, Win, Draw away recently scoring 2+ goals.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime under Rodgers.2+ goals scored in all bar 1 match recently under Rodgers.

Conclusions

  • I have said it before when Man City are quoted at 1.18 shots. They do not perform as per 1.18 shots when priced as such.
  • Look at the result v Burnley. Same odds as today. 63rd minute Aguero goal to make it 0-1 only.
  • I will not, therefore, look for CIty to be scoring before halftime.
  • I could even lay City at 1.18 pre match although that would require a Leicester opening goal for a trading angle.
  • If this follows City 1.18 patterns, 0-0 at halftime, 1-0 fulltime, likely Aguero!! But.....this Leicester looks a decent unit.
  • Man City and Liverpool though are the only 2 teams not cocking up their seasons in the last 5 matches (See Arsenal, Tottenham, Man Utd).

ITALIAN SERIA A

19:30 - AC Milan v Bologna - 1.68 AC Milan

  • 7th v 15th.
  • 4 matches remain this season. Top 4 is within Milan's grasp. Top 6 is next best aim for them.
  • Bologna are only 5 points clear of relegation so this is not a dead rubber. Full steam ahead.

AC Milan (7th)

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • Only home loss this year came v Inter Milan.
  • 3 consecutive 0 - 0's at halftime.
  • Scored in their last 6 at home.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 4th and lower. unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower.
  • Did score and conceded in 4/5 matches at home v 14th and lower. 0-0 last time these 2 met.
  • 11 of 16 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home (35%).

Bologna (15th)

  • Doing a great job in avoiding relegation.6 wins, a draw and a loss last 8 matches.
  • 5 of the most recent wins did come at home.
  • Loss, Loss, Win, Loss, Draw away recently.
  • Only 2 away wins came v 3rd and 6th.

Conclusions

  • Were this a home match for Bologna, I would give them an above-average chance today. Away form is in stark contrast though. 3 losses in 5 away.
  • AC Milan are solid at home. Only 1 loss v 4th and lower and unbeaten v 13th and lower home and away. AC Milan may concede but should not lose. That would be my angle.
  • I cannot discount an improved performance from Bologna given they are obviously in the best form of the season very recently and are highly motivated to avoid relegation.

SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN

  • Not much form to work with here in Sweden but I would recommend you follow these matches and get to know the teams. This is a good summer league and will see some readable matches. There may not be the patterns immediately noticeable this early in the season.

18:00 - Elfsborg v Norrkoping - 2.64 Elfsborg

Elfsborg

  • Only 1 loss came away.
  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match this season.
  • Draw, Win, Win at home, 3-1 and 4-2.
  • No 0-0 at halftime - 2-2-2-1-3-5 goals in total BEFORE halftime.

Norrkoping

  • Lost their first match then 4 draws and a win.
  • Loss, Draw , Draw away scoring and conceding in all.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match.
  • 3-1-2 goals total in last 3 matches at halftime.

Conclusions

  • Too small a sample of matches but for me, a strong both teams to score pattern for both sides. This suggests if 0-0 at halftime, you may be tempted with an over 1.5 goals (safe), over 2.5 goals (stretch) 2nd half? Or follow the in-play stats and note the first goal scorer. See if the opponent looks likely to score based on shots on/off target and corners.
  • I would really expect goals before halftime albeit the sample is small. So if 0-0 after 20 minutes, consider laying 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • This all comes with the caveat that the sample of matches is too small really to be 100% confident.

18:00 - Helsingborgs v Djurgardens - 2.2 Djurgardens

  • All 3 Helsingborgs losses this season came away.
  • 2 wins and a draw at home saw both teams score.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in 6 matches came last home match.
  • No win in 3 for Helsingborgs.
  • Only 1 loss for Djurgardens came last match. Win, Win, Draw away for Djurgardens.
  • Djurgardens have scored in every match.
  • Again, no ultra strong angles suffice to say any 0-0 at halftime should be vulnerable 2nd half.
  • Both teams have scored in Helsingborgs home matches but Djurgardens 2 away wins were to nil.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA 2

19:30 - Greuther Furth v FC Koln - 1.85 FC Koln

  • German Bundesliga 2 was thoroughly unreliable if you saw the 2 matches during the live chat webinars so please note that. This interests me because FC Koln are top of the tree.
  • 3 matches remain.

Greuther Furth (14th)

  • Only 3 wins since 1st December 2018.
  • Unbeaten in 6 at home.
  • 10 0-0's at halftime at home (67%).
  • Not beaten a top 6 side home or away.
  • All draws at home v the top 5.
  • Unbeaten at home v the top 11.
  • 4-0 loss to Koln earlier this season.
  • 18 of 21 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 14 of 19 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

FC Koln (1st)

  • As with a number of league leaders, are the nerves getting to them? 2 draws and 2 losses last 4 matches.
  • 4-4 and 3-0 loss last 2 away matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 4 losses away v 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 13th. v 14th and lower, Koln beat 15th, 16th and a draw v 18th away.
  • 22 goals have been scored either side of halftime away.

Conclusions

  • We see it in the Premier League. United, Tottenham, all waivering just at the wrong time of the season. Similar with Koln with only 2 points from their last 4 matches.
  • On seasonal form, a draw seems best case for Greuther Furth but they are relegation threatened so you can be assured they will be 100% motivated.
  • Very strong 2nd half scoring and conceding stats for Greuther Furth so if 0-0 at halftime, expect 2nd half goals.
  • Koln have conceded 7 goals in 2 away so are nervy but only 3 of their 4 defeats  away came v the fellow top 4.

TURKISH SUPER LEAGUE

18:30 - Trabzonspor v Kayserispor - 1.58 Trabzonspor

  • 4 matches remain and Trabzonspor could ensure 4th place with a win today.

Trabzonspor (4th)

  • 6 wins and 2 draws last 8 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No draw in 9 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored in their last 3 at home.
  • v 7th and lower, only 1 loss home and away.
  • Beat Kayserispor 0-2 earlier this season.
  • 21 of 33 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Kayserispor (13th)

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 7 matches.
  • Unbeaten away v the top 8.

Conclusions

  • On form, Trabzonspor are unlikely to lose today. Simple angle. Trabzonspor are motivated here.

18:30 - Alanyaspor v Konyaspor - 2.02 Alanyaspor

  • A dead rubber for me. Alanyaspor cannot get a top 4 spot. Konyaspor are 6 points off the relegation zone so still need points.

Alanyaspor (6th)

  • Only 3 losses since 7th December 2018.
  • 5 wins and a draw last 6 at home.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • No defeat in 9 at home.
  • Scored in their last 7 at home.
  • 8 wins and a loss at home v 10th and lower.
  • Conceded 2 goals only once v 10th and lower.

Konyaspor (9th)

  • No win in 11 matches. 3 losses and then 3 draws.
  • 2 consecutive 0-0's.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away (47%).
  • v 5th and lower away, Konyaspor have only 1 loss, a 3-2 v 15th.
  • 7 draws in 10 though away v 7th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Alanyaspor are solid v 10th and lower, does that run to 9th? Konyaspor have only 1 loss v 5th and lower away, so cannot be discounted themselves.
  • Not for me. I can make an equal argument for both sides.