Something in the water, and with the score draw this weekend. It all began with Manchester United, and pervaded through to Ajax and Juventus amongst others. A good opportunity to remind you that there are many options available when trading. In the live chat, I generally go for juicy odds and what I call 'the stretch'. i.e. wanting Ajax and Juventus to win 1-2 at least  when the matches were 0-0 at halftime and 1-0 to Udinese at halftime.

There are safer options. Simply lay Groningen. Ajax equalise. You profit. Job done. Lay Udinese 1-0 up. Juventus equalise. You profit. Job done. So do weigh up your options. I'll do a piece for the DRT Facebook page. That having been said, we were a missed penalty away from a correct score at Man Utd, a goal away from a 13/1 payout in the Ajax match, and the Juventus equaliser engendered a profit for the trader of correct scores at 1-1!

Torino came in as a correct score at 3-1 so there was profit to be had. A cheeky back of 0-0 in the Sunderland v Man City match at odds of 27 saw the odds drop to 8.2 before a Man City goal in the 41st minute. Profit to be had for those who traded out early. Teams such as Ludogorets winning 3-0 reminded us that 1.16 shots tend to score 3/4 goals (Celtic obliged too!).

It's a quieter day today and a perfect opportunity for you to practice and to note the options you have in any trade, from safe and highly likely to come in, to my 'stretching' - i.e. asking a lot of a team who at their best are capable of doing what you hope.

19:45 - Alaves v Sevilla - 2.1 Sevilla

• There is only 1 recent relevant head to head, a 2-1 Sevilla win earlier this season courtesy of a 90th minute winner.
• This is 11th v 3rd in the Spanish Primera Division.

Alaves 100% stats

• Not beaten a team above them in the league at home.
• Not scored 2 goals at home v teams 12th and higher.

Alaves other stats

• 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
• In the last 6 home matches, only Barcelona have beaten them.
• 7 0-0's at halftime at home.

Sevilla 100% stats

• Not lost to nil.

Sevilla other stats

• Only 1 defeat in 11 matches.
• 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.
• Failed to score in only 2 matches.
• Scored in their last 12 away.
• Very tight scorelines (in victory) v teams 11th - 14th - 4 2-1 wins and 2 1-0 wins. Another tight one expected today?
• 11 goals scored last 15 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

• Alaves are yet to score 2 goals at home v teams above them in the league and that is a reasonable starting point, especially if they score first.
• This could be a tight one if Sevilla are to win (and it is reflected in an over evens quote for them). 0-1, 1-2 are possibles IF Sevilla are to win.
• Sevilla have the Champions League but that is not until next week. We did though see the likes of Ajax and Juventus get a 1-1 away and that is worst case for Sevilla today I'd imagine.
• My strong angle? Alaves are unlikely to score 2 goals and Sevilla are yet to lose to nil.

20:00 - West Ham v Chelsea - 1.63 Chelsea

• West Ham have won 2-1 in the last 2 home head to heads so note that.
• Both teams have scored in the last 4 head to heads and at least one team has scored at least 2 goals in those head to heads.
• This is a London Derby between 11th and 1st.

West Ham 100% stats

• No 0-0.
• Not beaten a top 9 team home or away.
• Conceded 2 goals at least v the top 3 home and away.

West Ham other stats

• 3-3-0-3-2-1 goals scored in recent matches. Man City kept them to nil. Tottenham, Arsenal, Man Utd and Man City are 4 of the last 5 teams to have beaten West Ham. Solid otherwise.
• Failed to score in only 5 matches.
• 7 0-0's at halftime at home.
• 11 of 14 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Chelsea 100% stats

• No 0-0.
• Unbeaten outside the top 5.
• No over 4.5 goals matches away.

Chelsea other stats

• Only 3 defeats.
• Failed to score in only 2 matches.
• 9 1-0 scorelines and 2 1-1's at halftime in the last 11 matches.
• 2 consecutive 1-1 draws away.

Conclusions

• There should not be a 0-0 here. Both sides love avoiding the 0-0.
• 1-1 looks like a reasonable opening gambit (as long as Chelsea don't go 0-2 up) given Chelsea's last 2 away matches and the 2-1 Chelsea win in earlier head to heads.
• West Ham quite simply cannot beat the top 9. Any reason this will end today? They have conceded 2 goals at least v the top 3 this season.
• Lay the 0-0 in the halftime. Chelsea are on a run of 1-0/0-1 or 1-1 at halftime at the moment. Slight risks attached as this is a London Derby.