Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

It is usually my day off today but there's so many decent looking opportunities today that I will be doing a Telegram for you throughout. Another unique Monday of English lower league football. A rare busy Monday. I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook. I thought I made some excellent calls this weekend in the live chat, profitable if you took action on them. I didn't as I was facilitating the live chat! 13:30 start for Telegram today.


English Premier League

18:00 - Everton v Crystal Palace - 1.80 Everton

Everton - 8th

  • 2 losses, 3 wins, 2 losses recently.
  • 4 losses and a win at home recently.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime home, none fulltime.
  • 1-2 win last head to head.
  • 13/19 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Crystal Palace - 12th

  • Only 1 loss in 5 came v Spurs.
  • Win, Loss, Win, Loss away recently.
  • Conceded last 5 away.
  • Only 1 win away v top 15.

Conclusions

  • Palace away v the top 15 are dire. Will that lack of form persist today v 8th? Everton don't know whether to lose or win recently. And they have had a poor run at home recently.

20:15 - Wolves v West Ham - 2.62 West Ham

  • The market cannot split the 2 'W's. Leave this to the in-play stats. We know that West Ham pattern don't we? They tend only to lose to the elite i.e. Man Utd, Man City et al. Wolves don't quite fit that profile do they?

English Championship

12:30 - Middlesbrough v Watford - 2.25 Watford

Middlesbrough - 9th

  • Win, Loss, Draw, Win, Win at home recently.
  • 2 consecutive losses though....came away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 12.
  • Scored in their last 6 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home, only once at fulltime.
  • Not beaten the top 3.
  • 8 goals scored at home last 15 mins of matches.

Watford

  • 10 wins and a loss last 11 matches.
  • 4 wins and a loss last 5 away matches.
  • 11 0-0's at halftime away, 5 at fulltime.
  • Only 1 loss away v 8th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Nice bit of recent winning form at home but Watford are consistently winning and v 8th and lower, have only 1 loss away. Compelling. Huge % of 0-0's at halftime for Watford.

15:00 - Blackburn v Bournemouth - 2.20 Bournemouth

Blackburn - 15th

  • Only 1 win in 13.
  • Failed to score 2+ in 11 of those matches.
  • 3 consecutive home draws.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home, 3 at fulltime.
  • Only 1 win v the top 8 home and away.
  • 10 goals scored last 15 mins of home matches.

Bournemouth - 7th

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches and still scored 2 goals in that.
  • 2 losses v 14th and lower away were 1-0 only.

Conclusions

  • If Blackburn consistently fail to score that 2nd goal, they will be vulnerable if leading today. Bournemouth have only 1 loss in 6 matches so ultra recent form is with them.

15:00 - Coventry v Bristol City - 2.05 Coventry

Coventry - 21st

  • Only 2 wins in 13 matches came at home.
  • Failed to score last 3.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home, 6 at full time.
  • 2-1 loss last head to head.

Bristol City - 14th

  • Only 3 wins in 14 matches came away.
  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 away.
  • v 17th and lower, failed to score = lost.

Conclusions

  • It is clear for Coventry, stop Bristol City scoring and they could win.
  • Bristol City's very recent away form is strong momentum.
  • Coventry have a poor conversion rate of 0-0's at halftime to fulltime.

15:00 - Luton v Barnsley - 2.25 Barnsley

Luton - 13th

  • 2 wins, 2 losses, 2 wins, 1 loss recently.
  • Draw, Win, Loss, Win at home recently.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home, only once at fulltime.
  • 0-1 win last head to head.
  • Have failed to score in 6/8 matches v the top 12 at home.

Barnsley - 5th

  • Only 1 loss in 14 matches.
  • Loss, draw last 2 matches.
  • 5 consecutive away wins.
  • Only 3 losses home and away v 10th and lower.

Conclusions

  • I cannot desert Barnsley with that excellent recent form, albeit loss and draw, both teams scoring, last 2 matches taking a gloss off the superb run of 1 loss in 14.

15:00 - Nottingham Forest v QPR - 2.60 Nottm Forest

  • Leave this to the in-play stats.

15:00 - Reading v Derby - 2.20 Reading

Reading - 6th

  • 3 1-1 draws and a loss last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 7.
  • Win, Win, Draw at home last 3.
  • 0-2 win last head to head.
  • 8 wins and 2 losses at home v 13th and lower.

Derby - 19th

  • Only 1 win in 8 came last home match.
  • 4 losses and a 0-0 away last 5.
  • 10 0-0's at halftime away, 2 at fulltime.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches v the top 5 away.
  • Failed to score that 2nd goal away v the top 17.
  • 16/22 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Derby's 2 goals last match may not be copied today. Failing to score 2nd goal away v top 17 may hand the initiative to Reading who are unbeaten last 3 at home.
  • With 3 1-1 draws recently for Reading, it suggests an ability to equalise if Derby score first.

15:00 - Rotherham v Wycombe - 1.83 Rotherham

  • A bottom 3 clash, rather like a high profile derby, or a top 3 clash, is the type of match where formlines may not be reflected. The market is solidly with 3rd bottom Rotherham, maybe down to their 3/3 wins record v 23rd and 24th (Wycombe).
  • Wycombe, note, have only lost to 23rd away when playing 17th and lower, indeed scoring 2-2-1-2-0-0 goals.
  • Can you trust the bottom 3 to show their form?

15:00 - Stoke v Millwall - 2.20 Stoke

Stoke - 11th

  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches saw 3 wins. 4 wins and a loss at home recently.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home, only once at fulltime.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v 10th and lower.
  • All home wins bar 1 have come v 9th and lower.

Millwall - 10th

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Last 3 wins were 1-0.
  • Scored in their last 10 away.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away, 3 at fulltime.
  • Only 1 away win v top 13.

Conclusions

  • Stoke look good at home v 10th and lower and Millwall look poor away v the top 13. But both sides are in decent nick with 3 recent wins each. Millwall's are only 0-1 so if they lead, lay them and cover the 0-1?
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0. Stoke's recent clean sheets may make it tough for Millwall to score 2 goals.

15:00 - Swansea v Preston - 1.95 Swansea

Swansea - 4th

  • 3 consecutive defeats failing to score.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home, 3 at fulltime.
  • Only 2 home losses v 9th and lower. 0-1 win last head to head.

Preston - 17th

  • Only 2 wins in 14 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3/4.
  • 5 losses last 6 away matches.
  • No draw in 18 away.
  • Interesting away v top 7, beating 3rd, 6th and 7th scoring 4-3-3 goals.....

Conclusions

  • Preston are really poor recently but is it just an anomaly that they have scored 4-3-3 in 3 wins v the top 7 away? They have, remember, failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches so their 3+ goals does not look like being replicated today.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.
  • Lay any late draw. Preston love to avoid those draws away.

17:30 - Sheffield Wed v Cardiff - 2.40 Cardiff

  • Leave this to the in-play stats.

Spanish La Liga Primera

20:00 - Barcelona v Valladolid - 1.12 Barcelona

  • An extra day to recover post Internationals for Barcelona should see them right today. That post International fatigue is the only Achilles Heel, as is Ronald McDonald's possible resting of Messi.
  • Barca are unbeaten in 18, drawing only 3 of those.
  • They have scored in their last 20, 0-3 win last head to head, Barca tend to score 3+ goals at home v 14th and lower.
  • Valladolid are 16th, outside the relegation zone and 3 draws and a win last 4 matches.
  • 4 draws and a loss last 5 away matches for Valladolid.
  • Valladolid have had 7 0-0's at halftime away.
  • They have failed to score when meeting the top 3 home or away.
  • Angles? Seasonal form sees 1.12 translate to its usual 3/4 goals from Barcelona and the expectation of a goal before halftime at least.