We can normally rely on the shorties to eventually score, unless they are French of course. Pliskova plays again. Backable at 12.5 last match, is she in as giving a mood today? If I am going to do a live chat it will be on Twitter @drtclub but this is a rest day.
17:00 - Armenia v Denmark - 1.43 Denmark
- A tight Group E sees 3 teams vying for position. Denmark are the 3rd side. Armenia are out of it.
- No draw yet for the Armenians sees all defeats bar 2 wins at home v Montenegro and Kazakhstan. Montenegro are 2nd in the group and led 0-2 before losing 3-2.
- Denmark only won 1-0 when these 2 met earlier.
- What is with the Montenegro result? It looks very anomolous.
- The Danes are full of goals. Only Armenia away and Romania at home has stopped them scoring at least 2 goals.
- What to make of Denmark's brilliant 4-0 win v Poland?
- Hard to evaluate this match given that Montenegran result. It may suggest laying the Danes if the Danes lead 0-2 as the value angle in?
17:00 - Azerbaijan v San Marino - 1.09 Azerbaijan
- Germany and Northern Ireland dominate Group C. Azerbaijan are in a cluster vying for 3rd place. I am not sure what value 3rd place holds, maybe lucky loser?
- Azerbaijan only won 0-1 in San Marino.
- San Marino has scored only 1 goal this campaign.
- 4 consecutive defeats for Azerbaijan, 3 of those defeats v the big 2.
- I would tentatively go with 1-0, 2-0, 4-0 today as Azerbaijani plays. As they look a very limited side, I would not back these correct scores until a good period of 0-0.
- If 0-0 at halftime, keep the faith in the Azerbaijanis.
19:45 - England v Slovakia - 1.41 England
- Eng-er-land top the group F standings.Slovakia, Scotland and Slovenia are all in with a shout with 3 matches remaining.
- England are unbeaten and built on defence. Only Scotland has scored against them.
- They beat Slovakia 0-1 after a Slovakian red card and a 90th minute winner. Wholly unconvincing.
- After 1-0 losses to England and Slovenia, Slovakia have 5 wins.
- I think 0-0 is backable here pre-match. This Slovak side are really tough to break down. It helps having the likes of Skrtel in the defence.
- A 'when will they score?' match.
19:45 - Slovenia v Lithuania - 1.37 Slovenia
- Slovenia are another side built on defence, albeit their opening qualifier was a 2-2 draw with Lithuania. And that was coming back from 2-0 down!
- Since then, Slovenia has conceded 0-0-0-1-0-1 and scored 1-0-1-0-2-0 so they need those clean sheets.
- 2 Slovenia 1-0 defeats came away from home.
- Lithuania's only win was v Malta which pretty much gives you a picture of their abilities.
- In 4 consecutive matches, Lithuania has conceded at least 2 goals.
- With such a tight Group F, and with England facing a sticky Slovak side, Slovenia must see this as a home win against a team they should beat. My concern is the lack of Slovenian goals.
- I am with Slovenia throughout this match.
19:45 - Scotland v Malta - 1.07 Scotland
- The 2-2 with England re-ignited the Scottish fire. The made sure against Lithuania with a 0-3 win.
- That's 2 wins and a 2-2 draw (which should have seen a win really) for the Scots. They are meeting Malta at the right time, 5 goals in 2 games and brimming with confidence.
- With one of England and Slovakia likely to drop points tonight in Group F, Scotland must win to take advantage.
- They only drew 1-1 at home to Lithuania, a superb trading match, 1-0 win v Slovenia and 2-2 v England.
- Malta have lost every match.The Scots put 5 past them in Malta and did concede.
- Usually Malta lose to nil away so 3-0, 5-0, 6-0 for me this evening as fun correct scores. I will, as ever, delay entry and hope for a 0-0 for a while.
19:45 - Northern Ireland v Czech Republic - 2.84 NI
- The market cannot pick a favourite in this match.
- Northern Ireland are 7 points clear of Czechs in Group C.
- NI's only loss came v Germany. In all other matches, they kept a clean sheet and have won their last 4 matches. A 0-0 with the Czechs away from home.
- A mixed bag for the Czechs. Wins only v Norway and San Marino. Their only goals came v Norway (twice), San Marino and Germany where they equalised late on.
- As NI are built on defence, is this another match to back 0-0 pre match. I tend to look for a lay trade at halftime in 0-0's.
19:45 - Germany v Norway - 1.14 Germany
- 0-3 the last time these 2 met and now Germany has home advantage.
- 5 points clear in Group C, with 3 matches remaining, a win today for Germany should see qualification guaranteed.
- All wins to date for Ze Germans, although they needed a late goal to see off the Czechs.
- Norway look a sorry bunch. 3 consecutive away defeats includes Azerbaijan! Yikes!
- Germany tend to score 2 goals at least and not concede at home. let that be your template this evening.
- 1.14 odds suggests 3/4 goals minimum.
19:45 - Poland v Kazakhstan - 1.11 Poland
- Poland still sit atop Group E but only 3 points lead.
- 2-3-2-3-2-3-0 goals scored by the Poles. Suddenly blunt in attack against a Denmark siding smashing them for 4.
- The Poles drew 2-2 away at Kazakhstan.The Poles have kept only 1 clean sheet.
- 3 consecutive home wins saw both teams score and Poles quite naturally needing to score 2 goals at least.
- It is not 'sexy time' for Borat's boys.No win yet, and 4 consecutive defeats.
- We might see both teams score today so note that, particularly if the Kazak's score first. Poland need the win and at home tend to have 2 goals in them to secure the win.
19:45 - Montenegro v Romania - 2.62 Montenegro
- Montenegro are 2nd in the group E but the market expects a tough encounter.
- Romania's only wins came v Armenia.
- Romania have scored 0-0-0-1-1 in their last 5 matches. Therein lies their Achilles Heel. IF Romania score first, are they likely to score a 2nd? Not on current form. This suggests laying the Romanians if they score first.
- These 2 drew 1-1 the last time they met.That was Montenegro's only draw.
- I will stick with the above angle tonight.
Karolina Pliskova v Jennifer Brady - 1.18 Pliskova
- You are taking the Plis with those odds. You could have backed Pliskova at 12.5 last match and, as we see, she won!
- 1.18 odds is far too short for a Plis shakier than Shakin Stevens on a wobble board.
- If we add into the mix Brady as an American at home, we have a recipe for more struggling and more great trades and high odds.
- Americans have been strong this US Open (go USA!).
- 2 consecutive 3 setters shows you Plis's credentials. Maintain faith in her unto the death. The way to back a world number 1 at 12.5. Wait for her opponent to be on advantage, on her opponent's serve, on match point.
- 2 3 setters for Brady to date.
- This is all about the Plis. Let's hope she continues giving!!
David Goffin v Andrey Rublev - 1.53 Goffin
- 10th v 117th but don't let the rankings put you off Rublev.
- No head to heads. Monfils retired in Goff's last match so the Goff dominance there was suspect.
- Brilliant Goff 5 set win v Pella. Vindicates my thinking that the Goff's odds tend to rise in play.
- 4 set and 5 set for the Goff so he is battling.
- 4 setter last time for Rublev. He beat Dimitrov in 3 sets and if that is true form, it is very compelling with Dimi winning the Cincinnati masters.
- I can see a protracted battle. I would like to back the Goff if he breaches 2.00 or higher in play.
Rafael Nadal v Alexandr Dolgopolov - 1.15 Nadal
- 5th v 82nd.
- A very recent Nadal win on hard in Brisbane but we must look at what Dolgo is doing here at the US Open.
- He is wreaking havoc. He beat Tomas Berdych and his service game looks solid. he then absolutely dismantled Troiki with a 6-0 6-1 first 2 sets display.
- I feel that Nadal is layable here at 1.15 if Dolgo can maintain this level of form which has come from out of nowhere.
- with 2 4 setters himself, Nadal has lost the invincibility of the clay courts where he did not drop a set.
- I hope for some Dolgo magic tonight.It will be a cracking match to watch if Dolgo maintains his current level.
Daria Kasatkina v Kaia Kanepi - 1.54 Daria
- 29th v 513th and a feeling Kaia's ranking may be down to prolonged lay off?
- Daria is a relative unknown to me. Suddenly 29th in the world.
- Kanepi has played 6 matches to get here. We profited last match in backing Osaka to get a set back and so that happened but Kanepi pushed on 3rd set.
- Daria's easy win over Ostapenko was eye catching but I was assuming this to be the Ostapenko of Wimbledon. It was obviously not.
- 2 relatively unknown players for me. Faith in the market? Lay Kanepi if Kanepi wins the first set?
Coco Vandeweghe v Lucie Safarova - 1.77 Coco
- 23rd v 28th.
- Coco is an American at the US Open and making home crowds work for her.
- Safarova clearly has the better of recent head to heads 3-0, overall 3-1.
- The last head to head was on hard and a 3 set win. Is that a template for today? Lay the first set winner?
- Both players have had 3 setters, 2 in 3 matches this US Open.
- Take a chance and lay the first set winner today. Another tough to get exacting angles on.
Juan Martin Del Potro v Dominic Thiem - 1.86 Del
- 'Sick note' Del Boy seems to be holding up He has the best of head to heads, albeit one was here last year where Thiem retired.
- The ease with with Del Boy beat Agut in straight sets was very eye-catching, particularly if you take a look at Agut's recent form.
- 230th, 130th, 51st for Thiem this US Open. He is yet to be tested.
- Del Boy does allow the odd tie breaker. He has had 3 so far and that could be a Thiem way in.
- Here is a list of the types of player to beat Del Boy on hard. Raonic, Djokovic, Djokovic, Federer, Nishikori, Shapalov (Canadian in Canada), Dimitrov. Bar Shapalov, all top 10 players.
- Thiem is exactly that. 9th in the world. Based on this assumption, Del Boy should not win 3-0 today. I did, though, think that v Agut (13th) but he simply demolished him.
- A fascinating match. ON top 10 form, Del Boy should not be winning. Is that enough to oppose a 1-0 or 2-0 set win?