Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Quietish day today. I don't tend to Telegram on a Monday but may be about for Italian Seria B at 14:00 onwards. Have a great day. There is a DRT Facebook review/preview video.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

20:00 - Southampton v Liverpool - 1.69 Liverpool

  • 2 consecutive 0-0's for Southampton is surely a sequence we would target to end today. So lay any late 0-0.
  • 3 draws and a loss last 4 matches, scoring 1-0-0-0 goals. Where are the Saints goal machines?
  • They have failed to score in their last 2 at home as well.
  • This 3 matches without a goal breaks a solid scoring record Saints had this season.
  • They have scored 2+ goals v all top 7 sides, and in defeat twice at home (9th v 1st today).
  • 7/9 goals conceded at home by Saints came 2nd half.
  • They play a Liverpool on a 2 match draw sequence, 0-0 latest v Newcastle.
  • Distinctly average away, Liverpool's current away run reads Loss, Draw, Draw, Draw, Draw, Win, Draw.
  • They are undefeated in 12 and in 6 away.
  • 62% of Liverpool goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • Angles? These 2 have gone goal shy all of a sudden! Saints alarmingly so.
  • I would lay any late 0-0. I like to take on 0-0 sequences. I would lay any 2nd half 0-0 as we expect goals 2nd half statistically.

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Valencia v Cadiz - 2.1 Valencia

  • There's always a question mark when a newly promoted side saunters into town.
  • This is 18th v 11th, yes Cadiz are 11th.
  • Only 3 wins for Valencia all season. No win in 7 sees them conceding 2 goals at least on 4 occasions there.
  • They have kept only 2 clean sheets. Will that give Cadiz a way in?
  • Valencia have conceded in each of their last 8 home matches.
  • Only 2 home wins for Valencia saw them score 4 goals v 1st and 12th. v 9th to 15th home and away they have conceded 2 goals at least. This is very bizarre form.
  • 8/12 goals conceded at home by Valencia came 2nd half.
  • They play a Cadiz failing to score in 6 of their last 8 matches and in each of their last 4 matches. They failed to score in 3 of their last 4 away, resulting in defeats. And their only win in 8 matches was...a 2-1 v Barcelona. Have we entered the Twilight Zone with these 2?
  • Valencia are 18th. Cadiz have beaten 16th, drawn with 17th and beaten 20th away. Interesting...
  • Angles? A hard to read match. Spluttering form for Valencia. When they win they score 4, but v 9th-15th they have without exception conceded 2 goals at least. They play an 11th today who are unbeaten away v 16th and lower.
  • I cannot confidently predict this one! Welcome to a Monday coupon match!

PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA

17:00 - Santa Clara v Benfica - 1.36 Benfica

  • This match was ended at 0-0 at halftime yesterday due to bad weather. I said during Telegram that it looked as if Santa Clara have trouble scoring, and Benfica tend to score 2 goals at least so 0-1, 0-2 was an obvious play if this match recommences in the 2nd half.

19:00 - Gil Vicente v Belenenses - 2.12 Gil Vicente

Gil Vicente - 11th

  • Only 1 loss in 4 matches was v Benfica. This run saw 2 of their 3 wins this season.
  • All 3 wins characterised by clean sheets, 2 of those wins 1-0.
  • All defeats have come v the top 8.
  • 4/5 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Belenenses - 13th

  • Only 2 wins all season.
  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • Failed to score in their last 4 away matches.
  • Failed to score in 6 matches this season 4 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Only 1 loss but 4 0-0's and a 1-1 v teams 8th and lower.

Conclusions

  • It looks as if a Gil Vicente win will be 1-0, but Belenenses could hold out for a 0-0, as you can see from their record v 8th and lower.
  • An argument here for backing 0-0 pre match and cashing out at halftime or as near to halftime as you dare. It could be a goal-scarce match.

21:15 - Portimonense v Farense - 2.38 Portimonense

  • Both sides have only 2 wins all season.
  • Both sides have failed to score in 5 matches this season.
  • Farense have conceded in their last 11 matches and last 5 away matches.
  • 18th v 17th here.
  • Angles? A little dodgy these 2. So be careful if you want to play this match.
  • I would look to lay any 2nd half 0-0 based on the seasonal stats.

TURKISH SUPER LIG

16:00 - Kasimpasa v Fenerbahce - 1.99 Fenerbahce

Kasimpasa - 13th

  • Only 1 loss at home came last match.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in 8 of their last 9 matches.
  • Led at halftime in 5/7 home matches.
  • Only home loss came v 4th.
  • 7/10 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Fenerbahce - 6th

  • Only 2 draws all season were 0-0 in the first 3 matches of the season.
  • Unbeaten away run ended last away match.
  • 2 losses in 3 matches conceding 3 goals in each loss.
  • No draw in 11 and in 5 away.
  • Scored in their last 5 away matches.
  • 5/5 wins away v 10th and lower saw both teams score in 4 of those matches.

Conclusions

  • Both sides have had promising runs end in defeat last match. Fenerbahce's 2 recent defeats conceding 3 goals came from nowhere and is a worry but can we rely on the fact that they have had 5/5 wins away v 10th and lower, and play 13th today? If so, lay Kasimpasa if they score first.
  • Kasimpasa do lead at halftime but on seasonal form may not lead at fulltime.

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

17:45 - Jong AZ Alkmaar v Roda JC - 2.32 Roda JC

Jong AZ Alkmaar - 18th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 1 win in 13 matches.
  • Only 1 home win.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • No win in 6 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 8 home matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only home win came v 4th.
  • 11/16 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Roda JC - 10th

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches came last match.
  • No win in 7 away matches.
  • Conceded last 5 and last 7 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only 1 away win v 11th.
  • 70% of goals scored and 62% of goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Both sides are in poorish form. Just a single win home and a single win away.

20:00 - Jong FC Utrecht v Den Bosch - 1.81 Jong FC Utrecht

Jong FC Utrecht - 15th

  • Only 1 draw.
  • 4 losses and a win last 5 matches.
  • Win, Win, Loss, Win, Loss at home recently.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No draw in 9 matches at home.
  • Conceded last 7 matches and last 4 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.

Den Bosch - 19th

  • 7 defeats and a draw away last 8 away matches.
  • No win in 13.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not played 13th and lower away.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but there is a big gap in for for Den Bosch who have not played 13th and lower away from home.
  • Slightly favour Jong FC Utrecht here but only slightly.