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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, July 3, 2017

Tennis dominates today. I'll be tweeting throughout the day, barring distractions. Some hints for you at the DRT Facebook page regarding best scores sites. I am not researching all matches just the immediate eye-catchers.
http://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/scores/schedule/index.html for the order of play, weather permitting.

Adrian Mannarino v Feliciano Lopez - 1.22 Lopez - Grass court master Lopez of late

  • Basic research here. You know if you have read my tennis trading how solid Lopez is on grass. He will not be losing 3-0 today.
  • I expect Lopez to win.

Agnieszka Radwanska v Jelena Jankovic - 1.45 Aggy - 2 Arthur Daley players worth avoiding

  • 8th v 55th.
  • 7-2 head to heads Aggy win.
  • 9 losses in 11 matches for Jelena Jankovic . She certainly is not a player to place any trust in.
  • Aggy's recent loss to Lauren Davis 7-6 and 6-1 2nd set is an absolute headscratcher at Eastbourne.
  • This is a match I don't like. 2 untrustworthy sorts here. Let's be choosy this Wimbledon.

Ekaterina Alexandrova v Garbiñe Muguruza - 1.26 Garbine - What was with Mug's mug match last time?

  • 88th v 6th.
  • No head to heads.
  • Ekaterina is generally a peripheral tour player.
  • Garbine a semi finalist in Birmingham, yet like Aggy suddenly put in a shocker in Eastbourne losing 6-0, 6-1. What on earth happened there?
  • This again clouds what should have been straightforward research and an obvious favouring of Muguruza.

Arina Rodionova v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkov - 1.19 Ana - On rankings alone Pav should have this

  • 198th v 16th.
  • No recent head to heads.
  • 45th and 111th have beaten Pav on grass of late. She has not got past the 2nd round. Sites lowered considerably here though.
  • Arina is a 25K and 100K player and should not be beating a top 20 player. Let's hope Arina has some fight!

Lara Arruabarrena v Anett Kontaveit - 1.24 Anett - Lara should not win 2-0

  • Both familiar names.
  • 61st v 73rd. On rankings, the market should be a lot tighter. Note that!
  • No head to heads.
  • Anett's sole grass warm up was at 's-Hertogenbosch where she won the Tournament!
  • Lara took 21st and 27th to 3 sets at Eastbourne but lost easily to the World Number 1.
  • With that in mind, we lay Lara if Lara wins the first set. This you feel is a match which could be tighter than a 1.24 favourite's odds suggests. Dare we lay Anett at the off or can we simply take the position of laying the first set winner?

Timea Babos v Caroline Wozniacki - 1.16 Wozza - Wozza abdominal injury healed?

  • 30th v 11th.
  • The advantage of watching tennis? We know Wozza had abdominal problems at Eastbourne latter 2 matches where she still beat Heather Watson (as expected via the rankings) and lost to Pliskova in 2 straight sets.
  • Babos's 3 grass court events saw her out first round. Note 2 3 setters which tells us she must be opposed if leading 1-0 sets.
  • Wozza should be winning 2-0 IF that abdominal injury is no longer a cause. We will see via her serve. Try to watch this one if you can.

Mona Barthel v Coco Vandeweghe - 1.44 Coco - Coco retired Birmingham after beating Konta. Clearly solid on grass but injury cloud

  • 81st v 23rd.
  • No head to heads.
  • Muddling recent grass court form for Barthel. She went through the qualifiers at Eastbourne and in the main rounds, her first opponent retired, and she lost in 3 to Kuznetzova.
  • Second Round, First Round, Second Round last 3 Wimbledon's for Barthel suggests that if she makes it today she is a lay in her next match.
  • Coco retired in her match against Muguruza in Birmingham and that was after beating Konta on grass in UK in 2 straight sets!
  • We have the cloud of a possible injury for the favourite here so if you can watch this match if Coco is popped first set, then please try to to determine her well-being.
  • A player nailing Konta in Brum in 2 sets, if fully fit, should dispose of Barthel. Lots of IFS though isn't it?

Beatriz Haddad Maia v Laura Robson - 1.46 Maia

  • 146th v 212th.
  • Only mentioned because Robson is a Brit and Maia a Brazilian (tendency to prefer clay?)
  • A match to lay Maia at very short odds in case Robson gets the 'Heather effect' from home support.

Kiki Bertens v Sorana Cirstea - 1.85 Sorana - Beefy a clay master but grass court is questionable

  • 20th v 66th.
  • 0-3 Cirstea is interesting in head to heads.
  • Beefy Curtains was superb in the clay court season but there is a hint that she hates grass. Out in the round of 32 last 2 grass court warm-up events. We really did make hay with Beefy during the clay court season but it seems she is not reliable on grass.
  • She reached the 3rd round Wimbledon last year, stopped by Halep.
  • Cirstea will be a familiar name as she lost easily to Johanna Konta at Eastbourne.
  • She was unlucky enough to meet Kvitova last year first round.
  • Note head to heads. Note Bertens clay court season (superb) and her 3rd round last year. This suggests what will be a speculative one - lay Cirstea if Cirstea wins the first set.

Katie Boulter v Christina McHale - 1.19 McHale - McHale retired last match. No injury niggles?

  • 280th v 44th.
  • No head to heads.
  • McHale retired in her last match, at Eastbourne so a worry re injury. No cause given for the retirement.
  • Katie is a 60K and 100K player so we cannot quantify form.
  • Another match where McHale should win easily but is there an injury in the back of her mind? Might be a value lay if she wins the first set.

Jeremy Chardy v Tomas Berdych - 1.19 Berdych - 3 tie breakers when these 2 met 2015 here. Could be fun.

  • 70th v 13th.
  • A 4 setter Berdych win in 2015 was tight.The last 3 sets were tie breakers.
  • It is 4-0 head to heads Berdych.
  • Berdych has had enough of that fecker Feliciano. Lopez beat him in Stuttgart and Queens in his pre Wimbledon tune up. A 3 set loss to 79th joins the ranks of ' what the feck?' results such as Thiem in Turkey, Aggy and Muguruza recent capitulations.
  • At Stuttgart and Queens, Lopez also beat Chardy!
  • I think Berdych's odds are far too short here today. I would want to lay him at around 1.1 in play if the odds get there. Chardy will give him a run I am sure.

Dominic Thiem v Vasek Pospisil - 1.42 Thiem - Thiem v 264th  - LOST! What's up with the Austrian master? A blip?

  • The odds say it all. The market is in ' what the feck?' mode again with Thiem's loss to some 264th ranked player in Turkey on grass. I have my suspicions this was a prior engagement he had promised to promote. He was the only top 30 player there.
  • Thiem was majestic on clay but out in the round of 16 in Halle to 46th and lost to 264th in Antalya. If Vasek is 64th in the world, I will back him! Numerology rules! Vasek is actually 112th in the world.
  • Thiem won in 3 on clay in 2015 (first to 2 sets).
  • Another match clouded by out of the blue dire capitulation by a World Number 9. Clearly if anywhere near top form, Thiem will have Vasek for breakfast.
  • Thiem was only a second rounder last year at Wimbledon.
  • Vasek was out in 4 sets first round last year at Wimbledon.
  • Thiem I would lay at odds of about 1.15 today in the hope there is something amiss with him. Although if true form were shown, he could do a 3-0.

Juan Martin Del Potro v Thanasi Kokkinakis - 1.29 Juan - No grass pre Wimbledon for Del. Thanasi on comeback trail beats Raonic at Eastbourne

  • 33rd v Thanasi who returns to the ATP.
  • My tactics with Thanasi has been to lay his opponents based on them not having a clue about him given his recent absences. It worked when Thanasi took first set v Nishikori and beat Youzhny.
  • Del Potro has been conspicuous by his grass court absence pre Wimbledon. With a player of his history, an injury niggle cannot be ruled out.
  • Thanasi beat Milos Raonic on grass at Eastbourne in 2 tie breakers and lost to solid yardstick Medvedev (twice now on grass).
  • Here's a list of the players Del Potro has lost to recently - Raonic, Djokovic, Djokovic, Federer, Harrison (Del did not play), Djokovic, Elias, Murray.
  • It takes a good un to stop the Argie.
  • This is another of those intriguing matches. Thanasi's beating of Raonic. Was that more a case of Raonic preserving himself or true form?
  • I think we will see odds fluctuations here. 1.29 may be low off the bat for Del.

Oceane Dodin v Lucie Safarova - 1.38 Safarova - Lucie 2 semi finals pre Wimbledon

  • 62nd v 28th.
  • No head to heads.
  • Semi finals in Nottingham and Birmingham are enough for me here to suggest Lucie will not be losing 2-0.

Thomas Fabbiano v Sam Querrey - 1.18 Querrey

  • Querrey the conqueror of Novak here last year.
  • 163rd v 27th.
  • No head to heads.
  • Finalist Nottingham Challenger and round of 16 Nottingham going out in 3 sets to Johnson for Fabbiano.
  • Querrey lost to Medvedev in Nottingham.
  • Queens was a toughie for Querrey  but he only beat 238th and 77th . His losses v 28th and 63rd.
  • 1.19 odds are too short for me for Querrey and he is layable despite his obvious comfort here and knowledge he can beat the best on grass.

Alexandr Dolgopolov v Roger Federer - 1.03 Fed - Must lay 1.04 shots

  • I always lay at 1.04 odds. Dolgo is an enigma. He can have some masterful matches but does meet the master today.

Taylor Fritz v John Isner - 1.4 Big John - Could be tie breaker city!

  • 130th v 24th.
  • Isner won in the sole head to head 2016.
  • Tayler has had to get through qualifying to get here and does play a smattering of Challenger tour events.
  • 4-3-4 sets for John in the French Open suggests with his tie breakers there is always a glimmer of hope that the opponent can take it.
  • He lost to Cilic in Stuttgart and Gasquet in Nottingham so warm ups cut short.
  • I expect an eventual Big John win and would be happy backing him at 1.8 or higher.

Gael Monfils v Daniel Brands - 1.16 Monfils - Gael Eastbourne final the perfect tune up.

  • 17th v 208th.
  • Head to heads from 2013/2014 season see Monfils consistent favourite but losing 3 of those (albeit one was a retirement).
  • Great prep for Monfils in Eastbourne reaching the Final should see him worthy favourite today.
  • Brands needed 5 sets to see off 146th in qualifiers to get here.
  • Anything other than a Monfils win would be a shock.

Grigor Dimitrov v Diego Schwartzman - 1.1 Dimitrov - Solid Queens run for Grigor should see him win here.

  • 12th v 34th.
  • 2 consecutive 3 setters in head to heads (first to 2 sets).
  • Good run at queens for Grigor ending v Lopez.
  • Expect an easy win for Grigor. I would be happy to back him at 1.5 or higher.

Jack Sock v Christian Garin - 1.16 Sock - No grass court this year Sock. A worry?

  • 15th v 194th.
  • No head to heads.
  • No grass court play this year for Sock -rankings should see him clear. 3rd round for him last year, going out to Raonic.

James Ward v Marcos Baghdatis - 1.26 Baggy - 2 consecutive retirements Baggy - injury concerns see a lay?

  • 624th v 60th,
  • 15 losses in 16 matches for Ward now makes him opposable if leading sets in this match.
  • Baggy has retired twice in successive grass court events. If you fancy a short odds lay, 1.27 may be worth it if he retires again. Clearly there is an issue. BUT clearly Ward is very limited at the moment.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v Cameron Norrie - 1.03 Tsonga

  • Tsonga must be layed at 1.04 although Norrie is likely to lose in straight sets as he did v Monfils. Tsonga lost, let me remind you, at 1.06 odds v Olivo so it can happen.

Kyle Edmund v Alexander Ward - 1.14 Edmund

  • 42nd v 473rd. Both Brits.
  • No head to heads.
  • 4 setter v 160th for Ward gets him here.
  • Poor prep for Kyle in Queens and Nottingham going out first rounds.
  • Rankings should see Kyle clear.

Kristina Mladenovic v Pauline Parmentier - 1.09 Mlad

  • 19th v 64th.
  • Mlad loves a quarter final. Quarters at French Open, and on Grass at 's-Hertogenbosch and Birmingham.
  • Odds justified here. Solid player who tends to go deep into tournaments. Only a first rounder last year!
  • Pauline is a serial 1st round exiter on grass.

Angelique Kerber v Irina Falconi - 1.16 Kerber

  • 2nd v 164th. You'd have thought the odds would be shorter.
  • Kerber's sole grass court warm up saw her halted in 2 straight sets by Konta. Kerber should not be winning Wimbledon this year.
  • Irina is a qualifier who should not land a blow. Watchout for any surprises!

Martin Klizan v Novak Djokovic - 1.04 Novak

  • Nice Eastbourne win for Novak. He must be layed though at 1.05 as I tend to do with these shorties. 'the only way is up!!'

Mischa Zverev v Bernard Tomic - 1.83 Tomic

  • 35th v 41st.
  • Tomic won easily in Nottingham in 2 straight sets this year on grass. What to make of it?
  • Tomic will lose to the top 20 player such as Monfils, Gasquet, Berdych but will be competitive near his own ranking.
  • I would lay any Zverev lead here as obviously Tomic has his mark and this is a player Tomic should play well against until he loses to a better ranked player.