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ITALIAN SERIA A

19:45 - Sampdoria v Napoli - 1.86 Napoli

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 6/8 Sampdoria home matches against middle-third teams and they have drawn the first half in 10/14 such matches. Napoli have scored first in 7/11 away matches against bottom-six teams.

Sampdoria - 16th

  • Only 2 wins in 8 matches.
  • Only 2 wins came at home.
  • Not beaten a top 11 side home or away.
  • 2-0 loss to Napoli last head to head.
  • Not scored a 2nd goal at home v the top 13th.
  • 9/12 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Napoli - 11th

  • 3 losses and a win last 4 matches.
  • Loss, win, loss, loss, loss, win for Napoli under Gattuso. Beat Juventus 2-1 latest.
  • Beat Sassuolo away and lost 0-1 v Lazio under Gattuso.

Conclusions

  • Watching brief advised for Napoli under Gattuso. Their only pattern really is no draw under him so far. A beating of Juventus impressed latest.
  • Gattuso may have a chance here if Sampdoria continue to struggle against the top 13 home and away (yet to win).
  • If Sampdoria continue to fail to score that 2nd goal at home v the top 13, then lay them if they score first.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA 2

19:30 - Bochum v Hamburger SV - 1.84 Hamburger SV

  • Match outcome: VfL Bochum have drawn 5/8 home matches against top-six teams and they have drawn the first half in 7/10 such matches. Hamburg SV have scored first in 7/10 away matches against bottom-six teams.

Bochum - 16th

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Only loss at home was a 2-3 last match.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Scored in their last 10 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 at home.
  • Lost 1-0 head to head.
  • Not played 2nd-5th at home but beat 6th 2-0 and drew 3-3 with 1st.
  • 2+ goals scored in all bar 1 match at home.
  • 8 goals scored last 15 minutes of home matches.

Hamburger - 3rd

  • Only 3 losses all season.
  • Scored and conceded in 9/10 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 6 scored draws last 7 away.
  • No win in 8 away.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 away.
  • 6 wins and a draw home and away v 13th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Interesting that Bochum are 16th despite only 1 home loss, a battling 2-3. They have had a poor start to the season v a lot of the better sides.
  • I cannot discount them despite playing 3rd today.
  • Both teams to score is a strong angle. Note Bochum are scoring 2 goals regularly at home. 2-2 possible? An interesting match this one.
  • Despite 2-2 possible, I would look to lay the late draw here given Hamburg have had far too many score draws this season.

ITALIAN SERIA B

20:00 - Pescara v Cosenza - 2.12 Pescara

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 5/10 Cosenza away matches against middle-third teams and +2.5 goals in 5/8 Cosenza such matches. Pescara have scored first in 7/9 home matches against bottom-six teams.

Pescara - 12th

  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches.
  • 4 draws and a loss at home last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No win in 5 at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 15th and lower. 3/3 score draws at home v 15th and lower.
  • 1-2 win v Cosenza last head to head.
  • 13 of 18 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Cosenza - 18th

  • 2 wins and then 3 losses.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 10 away matches.
  • 2 away wins v 6th and 13th were 1-3.

Conclusions

  • Pescara, despite no win in 5 at home, are unbeaten home and away v 15th and lower, albeit 3 score draws. They did beat Cosenza last head to head. This is a Cosenza who have conceded in their last 10 away matches. I would slightly favour Cosenza today and lay them if they score first.

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

19:00 - Jong FC Utrecht v FC Dordrecht - 1.99 Jong FC Utrecht

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/11 Jong Utrecht home matches and in 9/12 Dordrecht away matches against middle-third teams. Dordrecht have lost 6/9 away matches against middle-third teams.

Jong FC Utrecht - 12th

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 6 came at home.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches at home.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 7 matches and last 9 at home.
  • 5 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 9th and lower. 6 wins and 2 draws at home v 9th and lower.

Dordrecht - 20th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 2 recent wins were 1-0 only.
  • 7 defeats in their last 8 away matches.
  • 8 defeats and a draw away v the top 13.
  • 23 of 29 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Jong FC Utrecht look well placed here, particularly if this Dordrecht continue to concede 2 goals at least v top 13 away. 3 wins in 4 at home see Jong FC in good ultra recent form. They are, too, unbeaten home and away v 9th and lower. I have to be with the home side on form.

19:00 - Jong Ajax Amsterdam v Go Ahead Eagles - 1.99 Jong Ajax

  • HT/FT: Jong Ajax have had W/W double results in 8/11 home matches against top-six teams and they have won by two or more goals in 6/9 such matches. G.A. Eagles have conceded first in 7/12 away matches against top-six teams.

Jong Ajax Amsterdam - 3rd

  • 5 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 8 of their last 10 matches.
  • Scored in their last 11 at home and scored 2+ goals in their last 3 at home.
  • Only played one of the top 8 at home, a loss v 2nd. 1-1 last head to head.

Go Ahead Eagles - 5th

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • No defeat in 19 and in 9 away.
  • Scored in their last 11 and last 10 away.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 3 away.
  • 5-0 loss and 2-1 loss away v 1st and 13th.
  • 1-1 v 3rd and 6th away.
  • 13 of 19 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • This looks too well-matched for me to be too confident of picking one team over another.
  • Jong Ajax are more consistently scoring 2 goals at least and that might see them right here. Go Ahead are scoring 2+ goals in 3 away.
  • There is a gap in form for Jong Ajax too v the top 8 at home which is a negative.

ISRAELI PREMIER LEAGUE

18:15 - Maccabi Tel Aviv v Hapoel Raanana - 1.2 Maccabi Tel Aviv

  • Asian handicap: Maccabi Tel Aviv have won by two or more goals in 6/9 home matches against bottom-six teams and they have won 7/9 such matches. There have been +1.5 goals in 10/15 Hapoel Ra'anana away matches against top-six teams.

Maccabi Tel Aviv - 1st

  • Unbeaten.
  • Failed to score only 4 matches.
  • Conceded in only 3 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • 0-2 win v Raanana last time.
  • Concede 1 goal only at home.

Hapoel Raanana - 13th

  • Only 2 wins came at home and were 2-1.
  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 away matches.
  • No win in 10 away.
  • Conceded last 7 and last 10 away.
  • All defeats away v the top 7.

Conclusions

  • Highly likely we will see a home win to nil for Maccabi Tel Aviv. Simple angle.