The big wins from the live chat yesterday (25/1 and 9/1) came from matches which were not mentioned in the DRT Bulletin. That is the power of in-play stats which should be a key ingredient in your trading. The ideal? Marry the pre-match stats with the in-play stats. Elsewhere I was delighted to see Torino's 2-2 after being 0-2 down (as per the research). Another big odds winner.

It's another quiet Monday but 2 interesting major league matches.

18:00 - Galatasary v Adanaspor - 1.39 Gala

• 0-1 to Galatasary in the only recent relevant head to head.
• This is 4th v 17th in the Turkish Super Lig.

Galatasary 100% stats

• No home draw.
• All wins v bottom 3 at home.
• No 0-0.

Galatasary other stats

• Failed to score in only 4 matches.
• 2 defeats in their last 3 home matches.
• Conceded 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches, winning 2 of those matches.
• No draw in 12 at home.
• 8 wins and a loss at home v teams 6th and lower.
• 11 goals scored at home last 15 mins.

Adanaspor 100% stats

• Not beaten a top 7 side home or away.
• No away 0-0.

Adanaspor other stats

• 5 losses in their last 6 matches.
• Only 3 clean sheets.
• Only 1 away win.

Conclusions

• Adanaspor have had a few 1-0 defeats so note that. Only 1 win away for Adanaspor suggests they are opposable if scoring first. Indeed Galatasary have a strong tendency to equalise if conceding first.
• If Galatasary concede 2 goals (as is a recent habit), I would still keep faith in them coming through.

19:30 - Frosinone v Avellino - 1.64 Frosinone

• 0-0, 3-0 Avellino and 0-1 Frosinone in the last 3 head to heads.
• This is 1st v 13th in Italian Seria B.

Frosinone 100% stats

• Unbeaten at halftime at home.
• Unbeaten at home v 12th and lower.
• Not lost to nil at home.

Frosinone other stats

• Only 1 loss in 11 was a 1-0 away loss.
• Scored in their last 13 home matches.
• 16 of 27 goals scored at home came 1st half.
• 11 of 15 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Avellino 100% stats

• All losses away v top 4 conceding 3 goals in each.

Avellino other stats

• Only 1 win in 6 matches.
• Only 1 away win v top 16 teams.

Conclusions

• Frosinone should score first and could lead 1-0 at halftime. We are unlikely to see a trade therefore if this occurs.
• If 0-0 at halftime you might want to back 3-0, 3-1 and any other home score given Avellino's record away v top 4 teams.
• Lay the 0-0 halftime score likely to come in given Frosinone's record.

19:45 - Inter v Sampdoria - 1.37 Inter

• A 1-0 Sampdoria win in the last head to head.
• This is 6th v 9th in Italian Seria A.

Inter 100% stats

• Scored in all home matches.
• Scored and conceded at home v 5th - 15th inclusive at home.
• 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
• No 0-0.

Inter other stats

• 5-7-2 goals scored in recent matches.
• 9 wins in their last 10 matches at home.
• Failed to score in only 4 matches.
• No draw in 11 at home.
• Scored in their last 14 home matches.

Sampdoria 100% stats

• All defeats v top 5 away.
• No draw v top 7 teams.
• Not scored in both halves away.
• No 0-0 away.

Sampdoria other stats

• 5 wins, 2 draws and a loss to Juve in their last 8 matches. Good form.
• Not scored a 2nd goal away in their last 11 matches.
• Only 1 away win v top 14 teams.

Conclusions

• With Sampdoria failing to score that 2nd goal away from home, this tells us to lay Samp if Samp score first.
• If Inter Milan continue to score as per the 14 goals in their last 3, they will simply outscore Sampdoria.
• Lay any late draw as Inter keep avoiding the draws.

19:45 - Celta Vigo v Las Palmas - 1.98 Celta

• At least one team has scored 2+ goals in each of the last 7 head to heads.
• 2 3-3 draws in the last 3 head to heads.
• This is 11th v 12th in Spanish La Liga.

Celta Vigo 100% stats

• Not conceded in both halves at home.
• No 0-0 at home.

Celta Vigo other stats

• Only 5 clean sheets.
• Only 1 home draw was a 2-2.
• All defeats bar 1 came v top 8 teams.
• All wins bar 1 at home v teams 10th and lower.
• Only 1 defeat home and away v teams below them in the league.
• 14 of 19 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Las Palmas 100% stats

• Conceded in all away matches.
• Not beaten any team above them in the league away from home.

Las Palmas other stats

• 3 goals scored in each of their last 2 away matches...without winning.
• Only 5 clean sheets.
• No win in 12 away.
• Conceded in their last 13 away.
• Conceded 2+ goals in 10 away matches.

Conclusions

• Las Palmas scored 3-5-3 -1 goals in their last 4 matches so could go to town. Interestingly they scored 3 goals in each of their last 2 aways without winning.
• Celta are solid at home v teams below them in the league but if Las Palmas are on song, they may get away with outscoring Celta.
• To that end, I will back 3-3 pre-match and hope Las Palmas score 3 again and do not win. Celta have 2 goals in them at least v teams below them in the league. A 3-3 is eminently tradable if we see goals from both sides as expected.