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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, March 30, 2015

There were limited opportunities yesterday. I did notice, though, that Scotland to win at halftime against Gibraltar breached 1.5 after Gibraltar amazingly scored against them. Value is in the eye of the beholder. 1.5 for me was massive if you consider this. Scotland were UNBACKABLE in the match odds market! Scotland cruised to the half-time win.

Elsewhere I noted that Ivory Coast were playing Equatorial Guinea , the latter took the lead. Ivorians did equalise after the 70th minute in a match tempered by the fact this is a friendly. We return to league action this week ( thank ye Betting Gods) so this tough International Break can be tucked away.

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches

  • Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised

  • Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

  • Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

  • Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds)

  • Lay the underdog  scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market , especially in BANKER matches.

1pm - Thailand v Cameroon  - 1.53 away

Standout Stats

  • A match of little appeal. A friendly being played in Thailand.
  • Thailand beat Singapore at home 2-0 in their last friendly.
  • Cameroon have not scored more than 1 goal in a single match in their last 8 matches in all competitions. You can guess, therefore, that during this asian adventure, they limped past Indonesia 0-1.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Likely this could be a snooze fest today. Both sides struggling to score and Thailand renowned for defensive football at home and woeful finishing. Cameroon are enjoying their asian adventure and really should have spanked Indonesia. If they are as blaise as they were against Indonesia, they'll struggle today.
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3pm - Oman v Algeria  - 1.74 away

Standout Stats

  • How on earth do I suss out this mess of a friendly? The favourites just lost 1-0 to Qatar in a friendly, a Qatari side drawing 2-2 with Oman recently.
  • It does suggest Algeria are not 100% pumped up for these friendlies, or are finding conditions too much. Any side beaten by Qatar should hang their heads in shame, much like a Scots side conceding to a woeful Gibraltar!
  • Algeria were in fine friendly form before that.
  • Oman have recently lost heavily in friendlies to Ireland, Costa Rica, Uruguay, and China. They were recently spanked 6-0 by a rather poor Malaysia.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Next Please! Not a match which appeals at all.
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4:30pm - Bahrain v Philippines  - 1.38 home

Standout Stats

  • 0-0 when these 2 last met in a friendly in 2012.
  • Bahrain have only lost one recent friendly, a 0-6 spanking by Colombia.
  • The Philippines are on a 3 match friendly winning streak, albeit against footballing, erm, powerhouses Papau New Guinea, Nepal and Cambodia.
  • 0-0-1-0-1 scored by the Philippines in recent away friendlies suggests struggles today.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I think I will be taking today off as far as football trading is concerned ( although the match directly below is the only one of interest). This is another friendly with 2 poor teams and a feeling that the Philippines are the poorer of the 2?
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7pm - Belgium U21 v Moldova U21  - 1.17 home BANKER

Standout Stats

  • This is a competitive U21 Uefa championship match.
  • Belgium U21 have recently lost at home , in this competition, to Italy and Serbia ( the latter beat Spain so no surprise that they beat Belgium.).
  • That was after an away 2-2 v Serbia u21
  • It is perhaps telling that Moldova's wins have come against the likes of San Marino and Lithuania. Moldova recently lost 0-3 at home to England

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • As you've seen this weekend with these kinds of odds, we expect a goal before halftime at least, and 3/4 goals minimum from the favourites. That ties in with England u21's recent efforts against Moldova u21 and if Belgium u21 are as clinical, then it should be a comfortable evening. This is a competitive match so expect Belgium u21 to hold nothing back with home advantage against a team just-above-minnow status.
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7:30pm - Spain U21 v Belarus U21  - 1.08 home

Standout Stats

  • This is an under 21 friendly and is another to add to the pile of matches of little interest.
  • Spain u21 have only 1 win in 5 matches, and 2 losses recently v Serbia u21 and Belgium u21.
  • In recent friendlies, they beat Germany u21 2-0 and Norway u21 2-0 and lost 1-4 to Belgium u21
  • Belarus u21 are unbeaten in 6 matches in all competitions.
  • They are unbeaten in 8 friendlies, but contextually, there are no teams there on a par with Spain u21 .

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I think I'll let Spain u21 win this unappealing fixture. Certainly if Belarus u21 score first, I will show some interest.
  • If the odds are accurate, lay the 0-0 halftime score in the expectation for goals from Spain u21.
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8pm - FYR Macedonia v Australia  - 2.14 away

Standout Stats

  • Oh Lordy, the fun doesn't stop today!
  • This is another friendly being played in Skopje

FYR

  • Only 4 wins in 19 matches v Bulgaria, Wales, latvia and Luxembourg.
  • No draw in 14 at home in all competitions. They lost their last 2 home matches v Slovakia and Belarus.
  • Recent friendly wins v Lithuania, Slovenia, Denmark , Bulgaria and Latvia.
  • Failed to score in their last 4 friendlies v Cameroon, Qatar, and China ( twice)
  • Only 3 losses in 17 friendlies v Spain, and Cameroon ( twice).

Australia

  • Have been in competitive action recently in Asian competition, beating Oman, Kuwait, China, UAE . Only 1 recent loss was a 0-1 v Korea DPR
  • A recent 2-2 draw with Germany in a friendly.
  • Unbeaten in 4 aways in all competitions.
  • Only 1 win in 9 friendlies was a 2-3 v Saudi Arabia and it does suggest Australia are an experimental nation in friendlies.
  • Recent 2-1 loss to Japan and 2-2 with germany are interesting. I suspect the German side were not the full side as they had a competitive match v Georgia soon after this friendly.
  • Only 2 wins in 11 aways v Canada and Saudi Arabia.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I'll probably leave this match alone as Australia don't tend to be fully wound up for their friendlies , despite it seems being slightly ahead of Macedonai form wise in my eyes. The only recent collateral form is an Australia competitive win against China, a side Macedonia failed to score against twice.
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8pm - France U21 v Netherlands U21  - 1.95 home

Standout Stats

  • This is an under 21 friendly and like the friendly below, I don't think is worth researching. There is not enough splitting the 2 sides for me to favour one over the other.
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8pm - Italy U21 v Serbia U21  - 1.74 home

Standout Stats

  • Serbia U21 at this level have been excellent of late, beating Spain u21 1-2 away after drawing 0-0 with them . In a recent friendly, though, Serbia u21 lost 1-0 to Sweden u21 which makes it difficult to gauge them today. Their form against Spain u21 , albeit in a competitive event, makes them the form side, but then suddenly they lose to a weaker Sweden u21 in a friendly.
  • Italy u21 recently drew 2-2 with Germany u21 in a friendly

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Serbia u21 would be my favourites were this a competitive match. But their recent fall from grace in a friendly after ending an amazing unbeaten Spain u21 run, casts doubt over their attitude to friendles. This joins the rest of the matches as one for me to avoid.
Bring back the leagues , please!