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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, January 30, 2017

A typically mixed, low-key Monday coupon. Stats to note? Konyaspor have not conceded a first half goal away; De Graafschap have not won away; Jong Ajax have scored in all home matches; Benfica have scored in every match. If I am online I will tweet.

17:00 - Besiktas v Konyaspor - 1.42 Besiktas

  • Konyaspor are unbeaten in the last 4 head to heads. The last match was a 2-2.
  • This is the Turkish Super Lig and Besiktas can go top with a win.

Besiktas 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Scored in every home match.
  • All wins at home outside of the top 4.

Besiktas other stats

  • Only 1 defeat.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 2 home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in all bar 2 matches.
  • 75% over 2.5 goals at home.

Konyaspor 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Not conceded in both halves away.
  • Not conceded in the first half away.

Konyaspor other stats

  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • If Besiktas have not scored by halftime they are highly likely to score second half.
  • Besiktas have scored in all home matches so are wholly likely to do so.
  • Besiktas should score 2 goals at least today. Konyaspor must be layed if scoring first.

19:00 - Jong Utrecht v De Graafschap - 2.34 De Graaf

  • 3-1 to De Graafschap in the 2016 head to head in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.
  • 2 bottom 4 sides - can they be trusted?

Jong Utrecht 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches at home.

Jong Utrecht other stats

  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches at home.
  • Conceded in their last 12 matches.
  • Unbeaten at home v teams 12th and lower (de Graafschap are 17th).
  • 90% over 1.5 goals at home.

De Graafschap 100% stats

  • No away win.
  • All away defeats by 1 (6 matches) or 2 (2 matches) goals.

De Graafschap other stats

  • Only 3 wins in 18 matches.
  • 6 defeats in their last 8 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Both teams have poor clean sheet record. Will both teams score? I would lay De Graafschap if De Graafschap score first.

19:00 - Jong Ajax v Almere City - 1.69 Jong Ajax

  • Both teams have scored in the last 5 head to heads.
  • Jong Ajax are 2nd in the Dutch Eerste Divisie. They are 7 points shy of 1st place so this is a must-win.

Jong Ajax 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Scored in all home matches.

Jong Ajax other stats

  • 7 wins and 2 draws in their last 9 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • All wins at home bar a draw and a defeat v 1st.

Almere City 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 3 team in 4 matches.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals away.
  • No 0-0.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 away.

Almere City other stats

  • Only 2 wins in 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 12 team away (4 matches played).
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 away match.

Conclusions

  • Jong Ajax should remain unbeaten at home today. A simple trading angle into this match.
  • Both teams could score and Almere not win so lay Almere if Almere score first.

19:15 - Hannover v Kaiserslautern - 1.77 Hannover

  • This is German 2 Bundesliga. A chance to go top for Hannover today (on goal difference).
  • 0-4 Hannover in August 2016's head to head.

Hannover 100% stats

  • Unbeaten home and away v teams 11th and lower - Kaiserslautern are 14th.

Hannover other stats

  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 2-3-2-3-0 goals scored in the last 5 home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0.
  • 10 of 14 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Kaiserslautern 100% stats

  • 3 losses in 3 matches v top 3 teams.
  • No over 3.5 goals matches away.
  • Not scored in both halves away.
  • Not led at halftime away.

Kaiserslautern other stats

  • 3 0-0's in their last 4 matches.
  • 6 clean sheets in their last 8 matches.
  • Only 1 away win was a 0-1.
  • Not scored more than 1 goal away.

Conclusions

  • If Kaiserslautern cannot score 2 goals away, lay them if they score first.
  • 0-0 may be in play but that sequence did end last match for Kaiserslautern.
  • I think Hannover could return to scoring 2/3 goals today. Strong 2nd half scoring for Hannover so note that.

19:45 - Las Palmas v Valencia - 2.7 Las Palmas

  • This is Spanish Primera Liga and not a match I would ordinarily be interested in. Look at the odds for the favourite! 2.7!

Las Palmas 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home.

Las Palmas other stats

  • Not scored more than 1 goal in any of their last 6 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Scored in their last 6 home matches.

Valencia 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • No draw home or away v top 13 sides. Las Palmas are 11th.
  • All away defeats by 1 goal.

Valencia other stats

  • Scored 2 goals at least in each of their last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet came last match.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Scored and conceded in 14 of their last 16 matches.
  • Only kept one clean sheet away.

Conclusions

  • I must say off the bat that a favourite at odds of 2.7 is no favourite at all. The market really cannot split these 2 sides at all.
  • With that caveat out of the way, what first strikes me here is both sides scoring and conceding. Expectation would be for both teams to score.
  • Note Las Palmas have only scored a maximum of 1 goal recently, Valencia have scored 2+ in recent matches.
  • Enough to lay Las Palmas if Las Palmas score first.

20:00 - Setabul v Benfica - 1.38 Benfica

  • This is the Portuguese Primera Liga.
  • 2 consecutive draws in head to heads, one was in a friendly.

Setabul 100% stats

  • Not beaten any top 10 team home or away.
  • Failed to score at home in the 3 matches v top 10 teams.

Setabul other stats

  • 3 consecutive home wins to nil.
  • No draw in 9 matches.
  • 6 clean sheets, 2 matches conceding 1 and one anomolous match conceding 4 goals at home. Could be tough to beat today.

Benfica 100% stats

  • Scored in every match.
  • Unbeaten home and away v teams 7th and lower (Setabul are 8th).
  • All away wins by 1 goal (2 matches) or 2 goals (5 matches).
  • No over 4.5 goals away.
  • No opponent has led at halftime away.

Benfica other stats

  • Only 1 defeat.
  • 9 clean sheets in their last 13 matches.
  • Scored 2 goals in 6 away matches 4 of 5 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Setabul look tough to beat at home, v top 10 they have lost 0-1 worst case. Benfica though have scored 2 goals in each of their last 4 matches and on 6 occasions away.
  • No opponent has led away from home at halftime so note that if Setabul score first and early.
  • Speculators might want to back 0-0 pre match and hope this tough-to-beat Setabul turn up. It is slightly risky given benfica have an ability to score 2 goals.
  • If 0-0 at halftime I would look at an away score of 0-1 or 0-2 (with the habitual saver on 1-2).