Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

International friendlies? Take em or leave em. League 2 play-off. Tend to see goals rather than the Championship edgy affairs. Will that pattern repeat?
Tennis trading was great. Lots of good calls. I will try and be back for match starts in Paris. I have to run an errand. Join me @drtclub if you can. I have done screenshots of the coupon at DRT Facebook page rather than doing it manually. Takes far too long. These I will reference during the day.

ENGLISH LEAGUE 2

15:00 - Coventry v Exeter - 2.3 Coventry

  • 2-1, 2-0, 0-0, 0-1, 3-0, 0-2 are the recent League 2 Play-Off Final scored and generally we see more instances of a team scoring 2 goals in these finals than we'd see, say, in the English Championship play-off final.
  • In 10 matches played v top 6 this season, Exeter won only 3 and away from home (both teams are away today) won only once v top 9.
  • Coventry were superb this season at home v the top 5 and beat Exeter 2-0 at home, losing 1-0 away.
  • In the hope that these 2 teams carry on the recent pattern of a team scoring 2 goals in a final, I will go with 2-0 at 12; 0-2 at 22; 2-1 at 10.5 and 1-2 at 15.
  • These are more as trading angles than outright bets. Of course with a game of such importance, we could revert to the 2014 and 2015 finals 0-0/1-0/0-1!

SWEDISH SUPERETTAN

18:00 - AFC Utd v Norrby IF - 1.6 AFC Utd

  • No head to heads.

AFC Utd

  • Only 1 loss this season.
  • 5 wins and 2 draws last 7 matches.
  • 6 clean sheets this season.
  • 2 consecutive home score draws.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime saw goals 2nd half.
  • 3-2-1-4 goals scored at home v 8th and lower - 2 of those were score draws.

Norrby

  • No win in 6 matches, failing to score in 4 of those.
  • 2 consecutive away 0-0's.
  • Undefeated away  0-0 v 2nd and 0-2 win v 5th (play 3rd today).

Conclusions

  • I would look to lay any late 0-0 2nd half. Norrby cannot continue with their 0-0 pattern away from home.
  • I would take AFC Utd to score at some point today. 3-2-1-4 goals scored at home v 8th and lower.
  • As I say above, if 0-0 at halftime, take it on 2nd half. AFC had 4 0-0's at halftime, none at fulltime.

18:00 - Helsingborgs v Jonkopings Sodra - 1.81 Helsingborgs

  • These 2 last met in 2016.

Helsingborgs (4th)

  • Only 1 loss.
  • Failed to score only in that defeat.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 at home.
  • Have scored and conceded, without losing, in all matches played v 6th-12th inclusive.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • 5 of 7 goals scored this early season came 2nd half at home.

Jonkopings (9th)

  • Unbeaten in 5 with 3 wins.
  • All 2-1 scorelines away, 2 losses and 2 wins.
  • Not played the top 5 home or away so a gap in form there. The wins have come within a narrow band of teams 13th and lower.

Conclusions

  • What chance another 2-1 loss for Jonkopings? There is a big gap in the form which leaves an element of the unknown regarding how they will play v top 4.
  • On what we have to hand, Helsingborgs may concede but not lose today.
  • Do not expect a 0-0. 100% over 1.5 goals at home for Helsingborgs.

18:00 - Gefle v Landskrona - 2.7 Gefle

  • 2-3 Gefle and 2-1 Landskrona in the last 2 head to heads.
  • A look at these 2 teams and they both have only 2 wins this season.
  • 3 consecutive home defeats plays 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • Gefle play 12th today and they have beaten 13th away and 16th at home.
  • Landskrona have lost away to 11th and 15th and they play 14th today.
  • 2 out-of-form sides best avoided. If you wanted a play, then on the limited evidence, Gefle's wins v 13th and lower may suggest an ability to cope with 14th in the league.

FRIENDLY INTERNATIONALS

17:00 - Bosnia v Montenegro - 1.68 Bosnia

  • Both sides World Cup bound so this friendly has some meaning.
  • Bosnia have goals in them.0-2-4-3-2 in their recent block of World Cup qualifiers.
  • Friendlies seem to have been very much defensively oriented. 0-0, 1-0 loss, 0-1 win, 0-0 in their 4 most recent friendlies.
  • No home friendlies since 2014.
  • Montenegro are limited. Wins v Armenia, Kazakhstan and Romania relay as much. Losses to Denmark and Poland.
  • A bold prediction from me now. Montenegro will not be winning the World Cup.
  • They are likely to struggle today against Bosnia. Best case would seem to be a 0-0.
  • It all depends on the Bosnian side. Will they rest some of their stars? You might want to back 0-0 pre match and hope Bosnia continue that defensive bent in friendlies.

19:15 - Turkey v Iran - 2.32 Turkey

  • Turkey are not World Cup bound.
  • Iran are in the World Cup. Under Carlos Queiroz they have done superbly.
  • No angles in here at all I'm afraid. Morocco, Spain and Portugal are the teams Iran face. I suspect tonight they'll be working on their defence!
  • Iran really impressed defensively in their qualifiers. Since 2017 they have conceded 0-0-1-0-0-2-0-1-1-0-1-1-0 goals.
  • Friendlies have been equally as defensive.
  • 2-0-3-2-2-3-0-2 goals conceded by Turkey recently. Their friendlies have been 2-0 loss, 2-3 loss (to Albania!!), 1-0 win v Ireland and 2-2 v Montenegro.
  • I would have to lay Turkey if they lead here. 1) Because Iran look tough to score 2 goals against and 2) Turkey are conceding 2+ goals regularly.

19:45 - Portugal v Tunisia - 1.4 Portugal

  • 5 consecutive 1-0 scorelines for Tunisia in friendlies, the latter 2 were wins v Iran and Costa Rica.
  • Portugal beat another North African nation Egypt 2-1 in a recent friendly. Since September 2015, Portugal have lost exclusively to European opposition.
  • Portugal are also due to play Algeria in a pre-World Cup friendly. This is because they are playing Morocco in the World Cup itself.
  • A match where we are likely to see any Champions League Final participants absent for Portugal.
  • I would expect Portugal to take this match seriously against a North African side. They will not be fielding the guaranteed starting XI for the World Cup though.
  • Tunisia, note, are also World Cup bound.
  • Portugal may be more vulnerable without Ronny. It will be a match tighter I think than the 1.4 quote.
  • 1-0 and 2-1 enters calculations for me from a trading perspective, although the disciplined amongst you will be leaving these friendlies alone.

19:45 - Italy v Saudi Arabia - 1.2 Italy

  • Putin has declared Saudi Arabia as Russia's opening match of the 2018 World Cup. He tried to get Russia to play Gibraltar but realised Gibraltar had not qualified.
  • We will see today if Saudi Arabia have anything in their locker to worry the Russians.
  • Italy are not going to the World Cup. Do look for team news today as we are likely to see players representing the big Seria A clubs rested. This is an ideal match in which to check out potential future Italian players.
  • The Saudis have increased their quota of European teams in friendlies. 3-0 loss to Portugal; 1-0 loss to Bulgaria; 3-0 win v Moldova; 1-1 v Ukraine; 4-0 loss to Belgium; 2-0 win v Greece.
  • Only 5 wins in 15 friendlies for Italy. They do not tend to take friendlies seriously and there is an element of unreadability about them without the focus on a World Cup.
  • Since March 2013 at home though, Italy have only lose to Argentina, Portugal and France in friendlies.
  • It will be a much-changed Italy side, with key retirements and an experimental feel to the side (why not?). Still the Saudis do not look good enough to challenge an Italian second string.

20:00 - France v Rep of Ireland - 1.2 France

  • 2-2-2-2-3 goals scored by France in recent friendlies. Likely Benzema and any other recent Champions League players will be absent from the team tonight.
  • France have also scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 friendlies.
  • France did lose their last home friendly 2-3 to Colombia.
  • In 12 of their last 14 friendlies at home, France have scored 2 goals at least.
  • 4 losses and 2 wins in friendlies for Ireland does suggest to me that they use friendlies to experiment with.
  • I must be with the French tonight and take on any Irish lead, particularly if the French continue to score 2 goals in home friendlies.

NORWEGIAN ELITESERIEN

18:00 - Sarpsborg v Stabaek - 1.67 Sarpsborg

  • 2-2 and 3-2 Sarpsborg in the last 2 head to heads.

Sarpsborg (7th)

  • 2 draws and 3 consecutive wins.
  • Only 2 losses this season, 1 came at home.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 2-2-4-1 goals scored v 12th and lower.

Stabaek (14th)

  • 3 1-0 losses in their last 4 matches.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in their last 3 away defeats.
  • All defeats bar 1 came v the current top 5.
  • Wins came at home.

Conclusions

  • A draw may be best case scenario for Stabaek today. I would lay Stabaek if Stabaek score first.
  • An argument for backing 0-0 pre match. Why? If Stabaek are only just losing 1-0 as occured recently, they may be tough to score against. BUT then Sarpsborg have scored 2-2-4-1 goals v 12th and lower. So up to you. I would trade out out at halftime.

With the tennis, it is a long drawn-out process for me to record the matches so what I will do is screenshot today's coupon within a document at DRT Facebook. We can use this in order to note the favourites and significant players.
I thought yesterday's trading went rather well. Barrera at 1.09 the lay of the day. Johanna Konta bigged herself up and could not get going. Silly girl!
I will try to be online for the 10am kick offs but must go out to drop my sister's girlfriend off. See you on twitter@drtclub, weather permitting.