Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Quiet day today. I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook.

ENGLISH FA CUP

20:00 - Bournemouth v Arsenal - 1.86 Arsenal

  • Bournemouth have their first win in the Premier League in a long time and are in relegation battle. I am sure the Premier League survival is the priority rather than this distraction.
  • New manager for Arsenal. How will he approach the FA Cup. His predecessor did change the Arsenal first team for this competition. Watching brief/in-play stats.

ITALIAN SERIA B

20:00 - Perugia v Livorno - 1.82 Perugia

  • 1st goal: Perugia have scored first in 14/20 home matches against bottom-six teams while Livorno have lost the first half in 10/13 away matches against middle-third teams. Livorno have had L/L double results in 9/13 away matches against middle-third teams.

Perugia - 13th

  • Only 3 wins in 13 matches.
  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 0-1 win v Livorno earlier this season.
  • Only 2 wins v 10th and lower home and away.
  • 7 of 9 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Livorno - 20th

  • Only 3 wins came at home.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • No win in 9 and in 10 away.
  • All defeats away v the top 15.
  • Scored only once in those matches.

Conclusions

  • Livorno are poor away from home and have tended not to score v the top 15 away. Perugia are in poor recent form. Perugia are in poor form themselves. Only 2 wins v 10th and lower home and away.
  • Trust in the fact that Livorno tend not to score v the top 15 away?

TURKISH SUPER LEAGUE

17:00 - Malatyaspor v Trabzonspor - 2.38 Trabzonspor

  • 1st goal: Yeni Malatyaspor have conceded first in 6/9 home matches against top-six teams while Trabzonspor have scored first in 12/15 away matches. Trabzonspor have drawn 7/9 away matches against top-half teams.

Malatyaspor - 9th

  • Only 1 win in 9 matches came v Besiktas.
  • A draw and 2 consecutive home defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home (25%).
  • 2-1 loss v Trabzonspor earlier this season.
  • 3-0 win v 3rd at home was the only win home and away v the top 6.
  • 12 of 16 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 7 of 10 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Trabzonspor - 4th

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away wins.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • Scored in their last 8 and last 8 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not played 5th-10th away.

Conclusions

  • Trabzonspor have a gap in form v 5th-10th away which is a worry. I note Malatyaspor have scored 2 goals at home v 3rd and 5th at home and play 4th today. Coincidence?
  • On ultra recent form, Trabzonspor are the better side. 4 wins in 5 matches plays only 1 win in 9 matches. Malatyaspor tend to concede 70% of their home goals in the first half. Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market? Trabzonspor for me are the better form side but do remember 2.38 the favourite suggests a less than clear match.

17:00 - Sivasspor v Rizespor - 1.62 Sivasspor

  • 1st half outcome: Sivasspor have drawn the first half in 11/15 home matches against middle-third teams while there have been -2.5 goals in 9/12 Rizespor away matches. Sivasspor have won 7/10 home matches against middle-third teams.

Sivasspor - 1st

  • 9 wins and a 2-2 last 10 matches.
  • 7 consecutive home wins.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime all season.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 11 of their last 12 matches.
  • Unbeaten at home.
  • 2-1 loss v Rizaspor earlier this season.
  • 13 of 19 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Rizespor - 11th

  • 5 losses last 6 matches.
  • No draw in 14 matches and 6 away.
  • 3/3 losses away v the top 6 conceding 5-5-2 goals.

Conclusions

  • Rizespor beat Sivasspor in a previous head to head but Sivasspor are in excellent form and scoring 2 goals readily. I don't expect Rizespor to do the double in this match. Sivasspor are strong 2nd half goal scorers.

PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA

18:45 - Guimaraes v Rio Ave - 1.7 Guimaraes

  • Match outcome: Vitoria S.C. have won 10/16 home matches while Rio Ave have lost 15/18 away matches against top-six teams. There have been -2.5 goals in 12/17 Rio Ave away matches.

Guimaraes - 6th

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • Loss, Win, Loss, Win, last 4 home matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • All defeats this season have come v the top 5.
  • Not actually beaten a top 11 side - all draws v 7th-11th. 1-1 draw v Rio Ave last head to head.
  • Not scored that 2nd goal at home v the top 13.
  • 9 goals scored at home last 30 minutes of home matches.

Rio Ave - 7th

  • Only 1 loss in 5 matches.
  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • 12 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches.
  • Not played 6th-12th away.

Conclusions

  • Gaps in form make this match less readable. Notably Guimaraes have only lost to the top 4 this season but tend to draw against 7th-11th. Will that pattern continue? Guimaraes are late goal scorers post 60th minute.
  • 12 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches for Rio Ave may give us an indication as to the possible scoreline?

21:00 - Sporting Lisbon v Maritimo - 1.4 Sporting Lisbon

  • Match outcome: Sporting CP have won 18/19 home matches against middle-third teams while Maritimo have had L/L double results in 15/16 away matches against Big Three teams. Maritimo have lost 10/10 away matches against Big Three teams.

Sporting Lisbon - 4th

  • 2 consecutive home defeats came against the top 2.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • No draw in 12 matches and in 8 at home.
  • Not played 8th-13th at home. 1-1 away v Maritimo earlier this season.
  • 9 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Maritimo - 11th

  • Unbeaten in 5 matches. 2 consecutive draws.
  • Only 1 win in 6 away matches.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Not beaten top 6 home and away 3/4 wins this season were 1-0.

Conclusions

  • Gap in form for Sporting Lisbon v 8th-13th at home. What I would note is Maritimo's 3 1-0 wins in 4 matches all season. If Maritimo score first, lay them but take insurance out on the 1-0 scoreline.

GREEK SUPER LEAGUE

16:00 - PAOK v NFC Volos - 1.09 PAOK

  • Match outcome: PAOK have won 18/19 home matches against bottom-six teams while Volos NFC have lost 6/10 away matches. PAOK have had W/W double results in 7/8 home matches against bottom-six teams.

PAOK - 2nd

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 7 wins in 8 matches.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored in every match.
  • All wins home and away v 6th and lower.
  • 0-2 win last head to head.

NFC Volos - 11th

  • Only 3 wins in 16 matches.
  • 5-3-4 goals conceded away v the top 5.

Conclusions

  • Volos tend to concede 3+ goals v the top 5. With a 1.09 shot, remember that if it is 0-0 after 20 minutes, back 1-0, 2-0, any other home score in the halftime score market.
  • As with Celtic this weekend, if 1-0 or 0-0 come 2nd half, back 3-0, 3-1, any other home score in the correct score market.

ISRAELI PREMIER LEAGUE

18:15 - Bnei Yehuda v Maccabi Haifa - 1.53 Maccabi Haifa

Bnei Yehuda - 9th

  • 5 losses in 7 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home losses.
  • 3/3 losses at home v the top 5.
  • 1-1 last head to head.

Maccabi Haifa - 2nd

  • Only 2 losses.
  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • No defeat in 8 away.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 5 matches.
  • Only lost v 1st.

Conclusions

  • Maccabi Haifa must be fancied here. Only beaten all season by 1st in the league.
  • Bnei have 3/3 losses at home v the top 5 and 5 losses in 7 matches.