Another good weekend at the live chat webinar and thanks to attendees and contributors. Day off today but a good, readable Monday coupon (no coincidence that readability coincides with largely odds-on favourites). I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook.
20:00 - Swansea v Rotherham - 1.57 Swansea
Swansea - 15th
- 4 losses and a win last 5 matches.
- Loss, Loss, Win, Loss at home recently.
- No draw in 5 and in 6 at home.
- Scored and conceded last 4 at home.
- 5 consecutive over 2.5 goals at home.
- 1-1 last head-to-head.
- 3-3-1-1-3-2-2-2 goals scored at home v 14th and lower.
- No 0-0 at home.
Rotherham - 20th
- Only 2 wins in 13. Will take solace from a 2-1 home win v Sunderland latest, more comfortable than the final scoreline suggests.
- No win in 7 away.
- 2 away wins were 0-1 v 2nd and 17th.
- 80% away goals scored by Rotherham first half, 76% conceded 2nd half.
- Be careful if 0-0 at halftime as Rotherham have had 5 at halftime, 3 at fulltime away so it may not convert. That, despite the Swans being full of goals. They have not had a 0-0 at home. Trust them over a labouring Rotherham?
- The Swans goal power v 14th and lower should see them right here.
Spanish La Liga Primera
20:00 - Villarreal v Getafe - 1.67 Villareal
- October 26th new manager Villareal. New manager syndrome is still in play given the new manager yet to meet Getafe.
- Loss, Win, Win, Win, Loss, Loss at home under new manager. The last 2 losses were 0-1 which gives us hope for an insurance play if Getafe score first.
- In 11 of their last 12 matches Getafe have not scored that 2nd goal which reinforces the above conclusion.
- That's it research-wise. New manager syndrome!
Italian Serie A
17:30 - Verona v Fiorentina - 2.30 Fiorentina
- 2.3 the favourite suggests caution and no in-depth research.
- Only 2 losses in 8 matches for Verona were 1-0 away defeats v Inter Milan and Roma.
- 2-0, 2-0, 1-1, 1-0 win for Verona at home recently.
- 4 losses and 2 draws recently for Fiorentina. In 8 of their last 9 matches, Fiorentina failed to score that 2nd goal. Seems a Monday trait!
- That's it for the research for reasons you know all too well. 2.3 the favourite.
19:45 - Lazio v Sampdoria - 1.40 Lazio
Lazio - 5th
- 5 losses only.
- Lost last home match 2-0 in a 'derby style' match v Atalanta.
- 1-1 last head-to-head and against 17th and lower at home, 4-0 and 2-0 augurs well.
- 9/12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
Sampdoria - 19th
- Only 2 wins.
- 2 wins and a loss last 3 matches.
- No win in 7 and in 3 away.
- Conceded last 6 away.
- Not beaten a top 13 side home or away.
- Sampdoria's record automatically has us with Lazio. This looks clear-cut. We will see.
Portuguese Primeira Liga
19:00 - Sporting Lisbon v Estoril - 1.22 Sporting Lisbon
Sporting Lisbon - 4th
- 4 wins in 5 matches, only beaten by Big Dog Porto.
- 7 consecutive home wins ended v Porto.
- No draw in 10 at home.
- Scored in their last 8 at home.
- 0-2 win last head-to-head.
- 3+ goals scored in all wins at home v 12th and lower.
- Have not conceded in both halves at home.
- 6/7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
Estoril - 15th
- 8 losses and 2 wins last 10 matches.
- 5 consecutive away defeats.
- No draw in 10 and in 5 away.
- Failed to score last 4 away.
- Not played the top 4 away but lost to 5th and 6th.
- Sporting are drifting away from the top 3. 3 points will help of course.
- I do expect a Sporting win to nil, with 2/3 goals at least expected of the home side.
- Lay any late draw.
21:15 - Guimaraes v Braga - 1.95 Braga
Guimaraes - 5th
- 3 wins and a 0-0 last 4 matches.
- 3 consecutive clean sheets.
- 2 consecutive home wins.
- Not beaten a top 7 side. 1-0 loss last head-to-head. Failed to score v top 4.
- Failed to score at home v the top 7 sides they have played - 0-0-, 0-1, 0-1.
Sporting Braga - 3rd
- 10 wins and 2 defeats last 12 matches.
- 6 wins and a loss v Sporting Lisbon last 7 away matches.
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- No draw in 20 and in 11 away.
- Have lost away v 2nd and 4th, conceding 4 and 5 goals.
- Guimaraes I think are going to park the bus but may come out of this with a marginal loss or 0-0.
- Braga's losses v top 4 came v the Big Guns Porto and Sporting Lisbon. Guimaraes are having an exceptional season but are NOT Porto or Sporting Lisbon.
- Do prepare for a tight one but do expect Braga's goal threat to eventuate.
- Lay any late draw.
Danish Super League
18:00 - Midtjylland v Brondby - 2.00 Midtjylland
- Only 1 match played since 13th November. 0-4 away win for Midtjylland. 5-2 Brondby win v Horsens.
- Not focusing too long here. Top team clash. A Brondby win will see them take Midtjylland's 4th place. Midtjylland remain 4th with a win today.