I hope you enjoyed the live chats over the weekend and, more importantly, profited. Big earners yesterday? Zilina 4-1 (10.5) and laying Bologna at 1.08 (and shorter). There were a raft of other trades throughout the day such as Sampdoria equalising, AZ Alkmaar equalising, Atl Madrid v Barcelona 1-1 back being tradeable for profit, and to end the day, an epic 2-0 to 2-3 Real Madrid recovery if you kept faith in them!

Today is a quiet day. I like Fiorentina's goal scoring at home recently and when added to Torino's continued defeats away to top sides, we should favour La Viola today. Leicester have a new care taker in Mr. Shakespeare. Me thinkest they mayest get mullered this fair eve. What thinkest thou? Tough to call and a feeling they could be on the end of 2/3 goals concessions if Liverpool re-discover their scoring form.

16:00 - Lyngby v Esbjerg - 2.08 Lyngby

• 2-2 the last time these 2 met in the Danish SuperLiga saw Esbjerg come from 0-2 down.
• Esbjerg are 2nd bottom in the league.

Lyngby 100% stats

• No over 4.5 goals matches.

Lyngby other stats

• Only 6 over 2.5 goals matches.
• 0-0-0-1 goals scored in recent home matches.

Esbjerg 100% stats

• No away 0-0.

Esbjerg other stats

• Unbeaten in 5 matches with 3 wins in 4.
• 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
• 25 goals conceded away, 16 came 2nd half.

Conclusions

• On a quiet day I thought I'd head to Denmark as it is a league associated with www.soccerstats.com.
• Lay any late 0-0.
• I would back 0-0 pre-match and hope to trade out at halftime. Look at the recent clean sheets from the strugglers away. Keep that up v a home side with only 6 over 2.5 goals matches and we might have a recipe for a 0-0 for a while.
• Please do not get carried away with Denmark. If this was a busy weekend, this league would not get a look in.

16:00 - Viborg v AGF - 2.7 Viborg

Viborg 100% stats

• Teams bottom of the league (Danish SuperLiga) are always worth researching with a natural inclination to oppose.
• Not won to nil.
• Not beaten any top 12 side at home and meet 11th today.

Viborg other stats

• Only 1 win in 13 matches.
• Only 4 clean sheets and kept a 0-0 last match.
• Scored and conceded last 4 home matches.
• No win in 9 at home.
• Only 1 home win.

AGF other stats

• Only 3 clean sheets.
• No draw in 8 aways.
• 2 consecutive away wins.
• Both teams have scored in all matches played v bottom 5 teams.

Conclusions

• 2 bottom 3 sides in a peripheral league. Welcome to Monday!
• On form, both teams should score today.
• Lay any late draw and hope AGF continue to avoid draws.

19:45 - Fiorentina v Torino - 1.94 Fiorentina

• The home side tend to be favoured in head to heads in Italian Seria A.
• These 2 are 8th and 9th in the league so the match may be a tight one.

Fiorentina 100% stats

• Undefeated at home.
• All draws at home v 3rd - 10th.
• All home wins by 1 goal (5 wins) or 3 goals (1 win).

Fiorentina other stats

• 2-2-3-2-3-3 goals scored at home in recent matches.
• Failed to score in only 4 matches.
• Scored in their last 8 at home.
• 9 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Torino 100% stats

• Not beaten a top 17 team away.
• Lost away to all top 10 sides, conceding 2 goals at least in each match.

Torino other stats

• Only 5 clean sheets and failed to score in only 5 matches.
• No win in 6 away.
• Scored and conceded last 4 matches.
• Scored and conceded in all matches played v top 8 teams home and away.

Conclusions

• On form both teams should score today with Torino not winning. Lay Torino if Torino lead, better yet if they lead 0-2.
• Fiorentina are scoring for fun at home and may continue that, scoring 2/3 goals. That re-inforces the above point.
• Based on the idea for goals, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. The stats are not strong but we assume goals.
• I would not expect Fiorentina to lose on form.
• This match should not end 0-0.

20:00 - Leicester v Liverpool - 1.68 Liverpool

Leicester 100% stats

• New manager for Leicester may engender change.
• A win sees them out of the bottom 3.

Leicester other stats

• 5 consecutive defeats, failing to score in 6 matches. Jamie Vardy - Hello? Are you there?
• Only 5 clean sheets.
• Beat 3rd 4-2 and drew with 5th 0-0 so potential here.
• 12 of 16 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Liverpool 100% stats

• Playing a bottom 3 side. Beat the bottom 3 at home but yet to beat 2 of the bottom 3 away conceding 2 goals in each match.

Liverpool other stats

• Failed to score in only 4 matches.
• Only 1 win in 6 matches.
• Draw, Draw, Loss in 3 aways.
• All Liverpool defeats have come outside of the top 10!!

Conclusions

• Wheels falling off for both sides. A win however could be season changing. Liverpool enter the top 3 with a win, Leicester exit the bottom 3 with a win.
• Beware 'new manager syndrome' could see a sudden improvement from Leicester.
• Liverpool's form v bottom 3 away is poor. Leicester's form at home v top 6 teams sees them concede 3 goals at least on 5 occasions despite beating Man City and drawing with Arsenal at home.
• This may not be as straightforward as the market suggests and I am loathe to put forward an angle given the managerial change for Leicester and Liverpool's recent poor away form.
• At their worst, Leicester will concede 2+ goals at least. Liverpool need to banish that record away v bottom 3 sides. They concede 2. What chance a 2-2 pre match back? A return to the Liverpool fun and games we see v Bournemouth?