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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, April 27, 2015

A great weekend on the live chats. Not much choice today and a couple of matches where we have title hopefuls v relegation threatened (Besiktas and Valencia especially).

6pm - Besiktas v Karabukspor  - 1.47 home

Standout Stats

  • Draw, Draw, Karab win, Besiktas win in the last 4 head to heads.
  • This is 3rd v 16th, and as is typical of this time of the season, we face 2 sides at different ends of the table desperate for points.
  • Besiktas go top with a win today. Karabukspor stay 3rd bottom with a win today. There are 7 matches remaining this season

Besiktas

  • 5 losses only this season
  • Failed to score in 2 of their last 3 matches.
  • Lost only to 1st and 2nd at home
  • Draws at home to 5th bottom, 4th bottom and bottom!
  • Only 1 0-0 at home

Karabukspor

  • 4 match losing streak away
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 away matches.
  • Only 1 win in their last 15 matches.
  • Have conceded 2-2-2-3-5-4 in away matches recently
  • Only 1 win away v 15th
  • Scored and conceded away v all top 7 played so far.
  • 69% over 2.5 goals away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Both teams could score today and Besiktas not lose. The draw is a goer here given Besiktas' record v the bottom 5 at home which is poor.
  • Lay Karabukspor if they score first. A glimmer of hope for Besiktas, is the fact Karabukspor have conceded 12 in their last 3 away matches. Is this enough to have faith in Besiktas?
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6pm - Hobro v FC Midtjylland  - 1.69 away

Standout Stats

  • 1-5 and 3-0 to Midt in head to heads.
  • This is 6th v 1st in the Danish Superliga. 8 matches remain this season

Hobro

  • 2 match winning streak
  • 5 wins in their last 7 matches.
  • 3 wins and a draw in their last 4 home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home

Midt

  • Conceded in their last 12 away matches.
  • 10 wins, 2 draws and a loss in their last 13 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 11 matches away
  • Only 3 defeats all season came away
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 75% over 2.5 goals away
  • Both teams have scored in 83% of away matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Midt seem to have too much for Hobro, averaging 4 goals in their last 2 matches.
  • Both teams could score today, such is the record for Midt away from home.
  • Lay Hobro if they score first.
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6pm -  IFK Goteborg v Helsingborgs  - 1.63 home

Standout Stats

  • Only 4 matches into the new season in Sweden. 6-3-2 scored by Goteborg in their last 3 head to heads.
  • Goteborg have 3 wins and a loss v Malmo this season.
  • Helsingborgs drew their first 2 matches and won their last 2 this season.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Little to go on. Head to heads seem emphatically in favour of Goteborg. Is that enough of an angle in? The stats will flesh out as the season progresses.
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7:30pm - Bologna v Catania  - 2.36 home

Standout Stats

  • 3 Catania wins ended with a 2-2 in recent head to heads.
  • This is 4th v 12th in Seria B

Bologna

  • No defeat in 4 at home, and 4 consecutive clean sheets at home
  • 6 draws in their last 9 matches.
  • 6 0-0's in their last 14 matches.
  • Only 2 wins in their last 10 matches.
  • Only 3 losses at home v 2nd, 19th and 21st.
  • 6 0-0's at home.

Catania

  • 5 match winning streak
  • Have failed to score away v top 8
  • Have not beaten any top 15 away
  • Against top 6 away, 0-0, 1-0, 1-0, 1-0
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Not a match that greatly appeals to me. 0-0 is definitely in-play. Bologna go 2nd with a win today.
  • Catania have failed to score v top 8 away so if Bologna can score, they could win. But 6 draws in 9 matches for Bologna makes them less than reliable.
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7:45pm - Bournemouth v Bolton  - 1.29 home

Standout Stats

  • 2-2 and 1-2 Bournemouth in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 2nd v 18th in the Championship.
  • Bournemouth's recent draw means they are 4 points shy of Watford at the top and are equal on points with 3rd, 1 point above 4th  so a must win for Bournemouth.
  • Bolton are 10 points clear of 3rd bottom

Bournemouth

  • 2 matches remain and this is a must win.
  • No defeat in 11 matches.
  • Scored in their last 10 matches.
  • 2-4-3-4 for Bournemouth in their last 4 home matches. A 2-2 at home v Sheff Wed could be the season killer for Bournemouth.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 5 wins and 2 draws at home v 17th and lower at home
  • Only 1 0-0 at home
  • 24 goals scored first half and 21 goals scored second half at home
  • Scored first in 19 of their 22 home matches.

Bolton

  • Scored and conceded in their last 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Scored 3 and 2 in their last 2 away matches.
  • All losses bar a 2-2 v top 10 away from home.
  • All defeats bar a single draw v top 6 home and away
  • Only 1 0-0 away
  • 21 of 37 goals conceded 1st half away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Bournemouth must, must win and have scored 2+ goals at home in recent matches. We expect them to score 2 again today but they must avoid a 2-2 draw like they had last match.
  • Bolton are poor v top 10 away and top 6 away  so don't expect Bolton to win.
  • If Bournemouth do not win, an automatic promotion spot could disappear.
  • If Bolton score first, lay them.
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7:45pm - Valencia v Granada  - 1.31 home BANKER

Standout Stats

  • 6 Valencia wins and a 1-1 draw in the last 7 head to heads. All wins were either 1-0 or 2-1
  • This is 5th v 19th in La Liga. Another match up between teams who both need points. Valencia are wrestling with Sevilla for 4th. Granada will stay in the bottom 3 with a win.17th is 31 points.

Valencia

  • No defeat in 9 at home
  • 5 consecutive clean sheets at home
  • Only 2 defeats in 19 matches, latterly v Barcelona.
  • 8 wins in their last 9 at home.
  • Only 1 loss at home v Barcelona
  • Have scored 3 goals in 9 home matches.
  • 56% clean sheets at home
  • Only 2 0-0's all season
  • 19 first half and 15 second half goals scored at home. Only 8 goals conceded at home.
  • Scored first in 12 of 16 home matches.

Granada

  • No win in 14 away. 5 match losing streak away.
  • Conceded in their last 10 away matches.
  • 9 losses in their last 10 away matches.
  • Only 2 wins in their last 28 matches.
  • Lost away to all top 7 conceding at least 2 goals.
  • Only 1 loss away
  • Only 1 0-0 away
  • Concede hugely in the last 1/4 hour of each halves away - a total of 27 goals!!

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • This is deja vu all over again. I looked at Sevilla's match during my live chat, and it is similar, form-wise, to this match. Valencia solid at home, recent solid run, good clean sheets, playing a Granada who have not beaten the top 7 away.
  • It does look straightforward. My concerns are that the head to heads have been one-goal-in-it which, if Granada make a slight adjustment, could result in a draw.
  • Both teams need the points but it is clear that Valencia are the form side.
  • You could speculate on 2-1 or 3-1 (given Valencia have scored 3 goals 9 different times at home)
  • In the expectation of goals, lay the 0-0 halftime score.
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8pm - Moreirense v Sp Lisbon  - 1.59 away

Standout Stats

  • A 0-0 between Benfica and Porto is welcoming for Sporting Lisbon.
  • Very tight recently when these 2 meet 1-1, 2-2, 2-2. 3-2 Sporting, 1-1.

Moreirense

  • Conceded in their last 6 at home
  • 3 wins in their last 12 matches, 2 were away and all were 2-1 wins
  • Lost at home to the first 2, and a 0-0 v 4th at home
  • No 0-0 at home

Sporting Lisbon

  • 2 match winning streak
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 matches.
  • 12 wins in their last 16 matches, losing only 1 of those matches.
  • Only 2 wins in their last 5 away matches
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 2 defeats all season.
  • All wins bar 2 draws v 8th and lower.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Sporting drop points largely against 7th and higher so should find this an easier match. The head to heads have been very tight but Sporting have not lost.
  • Lay Moreirense if they score first in the expectation of a draw at least.
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