Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

A very profitable weekend. Quietish Monday. I have done a review/preview video at the DRT Facebook page.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

17:30 - Brighton v West Brom - 1.76 Brighton

  • 5 matches in and it's been a tough start for these 2.
  • Both teams have scored in 4/5 Brighton matches. The only match they won....they kept a clean sheet.
  • 1-3, 2-3 at home albeit v Chelsea and Man Utd. Today's opponents are a step down in class.
  • 3-5-3-2-0 goals conceded by West Brom - gradually reducing the tally. 0-0 last match.
  • Brighton have scored in every match and are yet to see a 0-0 at halftime.
  • Other than that, not strong pre-match angles.

20:00 - Burnley v Tottenham - 1.63 Tottenham

  • A certain G. Bale adds a touch of class to the Boys from Tottingham.
  • 3 losses and a 0-0 v West Brom for Burnley to date. Only 1 home match, a 0-1 defeat.
  • After losing to Everton, Tottenham are unbeaten. 2-5 and 1-6 away wins. Wow! 5-1-6-3 goals scored of late may really be too hot to handle for Burnley.

ITALIAN SERIA A

19:45 - AC Milan v Roma - 2.14 AC Milan

  • Guess who's back? Ibrahimovic started and ended with 2 goals in matches for AC Milan.
  • Another striker I like, Edin Dzeko, got 2 goals for Roma v Benevento.
  • This is too high profile a game to call. In-play stats please. AC Milan are yet to concede a goal at home.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 - Leverkusen v Augsburg - 1.64 Leverkusen

  • 3 draws and a win for Leverkusen so far. They are yet to score, or concede, a 2nd goal.
  • Win, Win, Draw, Loss for Augbsurg who have failed to score in their last 2 matches and paid the price.
  • The market seems taken by Leverkusen here and if they continue their pattern, we naturally lay Augsburg if the latter scored first, albeit they did beat Dortmund 2-0!!

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Levante v Celta Vigo - 2.58 Levante

  • No draw for Levante yet with 4 losses and a win v Osasuna away.
  • Levante have failed to score in their last 3 matches and had 2 consecutive 2-0 defeats.
  • Celta opened the season unbeaten in 3 with 2 draws and a win v Valencia but have 3 losses to nil now, conceding 2 goals minimum, albeit 2 of the opponents were Barcelona and Atl Madrid so that form needs that context.
  • They too, therefore, have failed to score in their last 3 matches.
  • The market shrugs its shoulders and says 'I dunno' about this one.

SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN

18:00 - Varbergs v Elfsborg - 2.12 Elfsborg

Varbergs - 12th

  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home losses.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Scored last 12 at home.
  • Not beaten a top 6 side. 3-3 last head to head.

Elfsborg - 5th

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Only 1 win in 9 came last match, 6 draws in those matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 away, scored last 7 away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 10th and lower. 4 wins and a draw v 10th and lower away.
  • 13/18 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • The market looks right with Varbergs unable to beat the top 6 and the Elf winning v 10th and lower away.

18:00 - Norrkopping v AIK - 2.1 Norrkopping

Norrkopping - 3rd

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches.
  • No win in 6 at home.
  • Conceded last 6 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 8th and lower. 1-4 win last head to head.
  • 2+ goals scored in all bar 1 match at home v 8th and lower.

AIK - 11th

  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 5 side home or away.

Conclusions

  • I would favour Norrkopping on seasonal form, despite AIK's recent wins. AIK have not beaten a top 5 side, and that includes WITH home advantage. Norrkopping have tended to score 2 goals v 8th and lower at home.

RUSSIAN PREMIER LEAGUE

16:00 - CSKA Moscow v Arsenal Tula - 1.59 CSKA Moscow

  • 5 wins in 6 matches for CSKA Moscow. They have the momentum. Win, Loss, Win, Loss, Win at home.
  • CSKA have failed to score only once.
  • CSKA have conceded last 5 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home for CSKA but 3 0-0's last 4 matches.
  • all wins for CSKA v 10th and lower. They play 11th today.
  • Tula are yet to win away. And have lost to the top 2 already and play 3rd today.
  • Angles? Tula do score away v the top 2 but tend to lose. Let that be an angle. CSKA remember have failed to score only once.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but am put off by CSKA's 3 0-0's in their last 4 matches at halftime.

PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA

20:15 - Benfica v Belenenses - 1.17 Benfica

  • 4/4 wins for Benfica. 5-2-3-3 goals scored which fits in nicely with a 1.17 quote. Benfica have scored before halftime and led to nil in all 4 matches and that is another tick in the box of expectation for a 1.17 shot.
  • Belenenses will be hoping on their defence. 0-1 win, 1-2 loss, 0-0, 0-0.
  • I do expect that 0-0 sequence to end today but be mindful that Belenenses may frustrate.
  • Angles? Expectation for a lead to nil at halftime for Benfica and 3/4 goals scored. I expect that Belenenses sequence of 0-0 to end.

DANISH SUPERLIGA

18:00 - AaB v Vejle - 1.89 AaB

AaB - 7th

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 1-0 and 1-1 at home for AaB.
  • Failed to score only first match.
  • Both teams scored last 3 matches.

Vejle - 5th

  • A loss started their return to the Superliga. Win, Draw, Win, Win last 4 matches.
  • 2-4-2-1-3 goals scored. Healthy.
  • Scored every match therefore.
  • Only 1 clean sheet though.

Conclusions

  • It's hard to be emphatic in your conclusions when faced with a newly promoted side such as Vejle who are clearly in good mind, scoring 2+ goals and 3 wins in 4 matches. Contrast that with an AaB scoring a maximum of 1 goal in their 2 home matches, and the home side may struggle.
  • I must mention that there are not enough matches played this season to make a strong case.