DRT Daily Research Bulletin, June 26, 2017
A couple of nice tennis trades yesterday, despite it being Finals Day. We stayed with my close showbiz pal J-Lo, or is it F-Lo (F. Lopez). Researching daily reminds you of players and their favoured surfaces. Feliciano Lopez is a grass-man. So lay Cilic first set winner at 1.12! Yes please. Barty also won the first set v Pliskova. I was watching the match and Pliskova exuded confidence for a comfortable 1-1 sets.
Elsewhere the key trade was Rosenborg. Research pointed to Sogndal conceding 3 goals. So what to do at halftime? Why not back 3-0, or any other home scoreline? Did that cross your minds? 3-0 it ended.
It is a niggly day tennis wise. I have tried to research some matches but find them difficult today. Mid level ranked players with questionable form and arguments in opposition of both players are concerns today. Look too at Kevin Anderson, hamstring injury last match. Is he fit and raring? I will try and tweet @drtclub but it does look like a quiet tennis day for me.
16:30 - RoPS v Ilves - 2.46 Ilves
- 0-2 RoPS in the last head to head.
- This is 10th v 5th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.
- No draw.
- 4 losses in their last 5 matches.
- Only 3 clean sheets.
- No 0-0 of course.
- 8 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
- All 3 home defeats came v the top 3.
- 3 consecutive 3 clean sheets.
- Only 4 over 2.5 goals matches all season.
- Losses away v 1st and 12th. Lost 0-2 at home to RoPS this season.
- Lay any late draw.
- Lay any late 0-0 therefore.
- Not a match I can take sides on. RoPS have only lost to the top 3 at home. Ilves has only had 2 losses away.
17:30 - SJK v PS Kemi - 1.59 SJK
- 3-1 Kemi in the last head to head.
- This is 9th v 7th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.
- Only 1 win in 7 matches yet strong favourites today?
- 1-0-0 scored last 3 home matches.
- Only 3 clean sheets.
- Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- No 0-0.
- 8 of 10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
- Not beaten a top 6 team at home - failed to score that 2nd goal at home v top 6 teams.
- Only 1 loss in 7 matches.
- Only 3 clean sheets.
- Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
- 3-4-2 scored in the last 3 aways.
- No away draw.
- Unbeaten at halftime away.
- 100% over 1.5 goals away.
- I cannot understand why SJK are 1.59 favourites. Anyone enlighten me? Kemi playing in clown shoes? I have just checked the odds again, up to 1.62 for SJK.
- I would lay any late 0-0.
- The value here is in laying SJK if SJK score first, if indeed they can score!
- Strictly on the form though Kemi look the likelier 1st goal scorers given SJK tend to score 2nd half at home.
18:00 - Stromsgodset v Molde - 2.24 Stroms
- 0-2 Molde in the last head to head.
- This is 14th v 7th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.
- Scored and conceded in 9 matches this season.
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- Failed to score only 3 times.
- Scored and conceded in 5 of 6 home matches.
- No 0-0.
- 3 wins in 4 matches.
- No draw in 7 matches.
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- Only 1 clean sheet in their last 8 matches.
- All 3 away defeats came v top 3.
- Not scored in both halves away.
- Not led at halftime away.
- Molde are highly likely to concede today so that is a ready angle for me. I would prefer Molde to score first in order to lay them as a trading angle.
- Lay any late 0-0.
19:45 - Dundalk v Galway United - 1.17 Dundalk
- 2-1 Galway in the last head to head.
- This is 2nd v 12th in the Irish Premier Division.
- Only 1 draw all season was a 0-0.
- Only 1 loss in 7 matches was v Cork City.
- 6 clean sheets in their last 7 matches.
- Failed to score only twice.
- Only home defeats were v the top 3.
- 4-4-3-3 goals scored at home v teams 8th and lower.
- 4 losses in 5 matches.
- Scored and conceded in 14 matches.
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- No win in 9 away.
- Conceded in 9 away.
- All defeats away v top 5. All draws away v 6th and lower.
- The market suggests that the 2-1 Galway home win was anomolous.
- The market expects Dundalk to revert to the 3/4 goals they have been scoring v teams 8th and lower.
- Dundalk may concede but simply outscore Galway with home advantage.
- 3-1, any other home score are possibles today.
Wimbledon qualifiers begin today.
We see largely Challenger level players. There is only one name I recognise - Bjorn Fratangelo. I will not be trading these qualifiers. There will be world class players if we remain a bit patient. Challengers are Challengers for a reason!
The Antalya Open begins today but my primary focus will be on Eastbourne.
Donald Young v Kyle Edmund - 1.81 Kyle
- 44th v 42nd - tight rankings and tight odds suggests a tight game.
- No head to heads.
- Note Edmund - a Brit in England.
- Young is clearly limited. He beat Kyrgios through retirement.He did beat 39th ranked Troiki in 2 sets but lost to Cilic at Queens.
- Kyle lost to Shapovalov first round at Queens.
- 2nd round London last year Young and 2nd round Wimbledon.
- second round Nottingham and first round Wimbledon for Edmund last year.
- Not a match I can get an angle on. Kyle was poor at Queens. Young only really had the one win v a 39th ranked player.
Naomi Broady v Kristyna Pliskova - 1.43 Plis
- 121st v 57th. 2 lowly ranked players.
- Last head to heads 2015 was a Pliskova win. These 2 have played in 50K and 25K events.
- Broady is a Brit in England.
- Broady has largely played 100K events.
- In Birmingham, Broady beat Alize Cornet which caught the eye but obviously lost to Petra Kvitova.
- Pliskova reached the quarters in Mallorca - 30th, 102nd and 58th the rankings she played. She lost to 58th.
- Last year, Broady could only reach the First Round of grass court events.
- Pliskova 2nd round qualifier last year in Birmingham and only first round Wimbledon.
- These 2 are clearly limited. I would lay Broady if she wins the first set (as she could if home support boosts her).
Christina McHale v Ying-Ying Duan - 1.49 McHale
- 44th v 60th.
- McHale won in 3 sets in 2015.
- Poor stuff from McHale on grass this year. A single 3 set win v 26th, then a 3 set loss v 96th.
- Lost to Vanderweghe in Birmingham.
- Duan has been through qualifying to get here.
- Nothing convincing me of either player today. Wait for Wimbledon!
Heather Watson v Dominika Cibulkova - 1.5 Cib
- 111th v 4th. You would think that Dom's odds would be shorter.
- Last head to heads were 2014 and Heather won the most recent one.
- First, Second, First, First Round last year on grass for Heather.
- 24-25 lifetime win/loss record on grass for Heather.
- Recent grass losses v 39th and 13th, latterly in 3 sets.
- Beat 42nd in 3 sets in Nottingham.
- 5 losses in 6 matches for Cibulkova. Poor form for a World Number 4.
- 2 consecutive 3 set losses on grass v 180th and 28th.
- The value for me would be a lay of Dom if she wins the first set.
- Dom is in poor form but as World Number 4 really should be beating our Heather.
- It is clear to me that Guernsey's Finest gets a real boost from home support. See her winning of the 2nd set v Svitolina and beating of Tsurenko in 3 sets.
- This could actually be a match to lay the first set winner.
Karolina Pliskova v Alison Riske - 1.41 Plis
- 3rd v 39th.
- Plis beat Riske in the Final at Nottingham last year in straight set and 7-5 set.
- Quarters and Semis for Pliskova on clay at Roma and French Open. Good stuff.
- Final, Final, 2nd round for Karolina last year on grass.
- Finalist Notts as we know, then could not get through qualifiers next grass court.
- I think Pliskova will win today but Riske may challenge given last year's form. I would back Pliskova if her odds get to 1.8.
Thomaz Bellucci v Kevin Anderson - 1.22 Anderson
- 54th v 66th so note the tight rankings compared to the emphatic market.
- Last head to heads 2012 so irrelevant.
- These 2 are yet to play on grass this year.
- Anderson looked great at the French Open, Jaziri, Kyrgios, and beating Edmund in 5 is solid stuff.
- He did retire v Cilic and as you know retirements could be injury based. It may be as simple as a localised cold but could be an injury - see Nishikori.
- If you go to www.tennisexplorer.com you will see that it was a Hamstring concern for Anderson.
- First Round, Quarters, First round for Kevin last year on grass.
- First round, 2nd round Bellucci last year on grass.
- The value here is in gambling on Anderson's tentative play after a hamstring injury and thus laying him if he wins first set.
- If fully fit, I would not do that.
- If he is fully fit, Anderson should not be losing 2-0 because he was a real battler at the French Open.
Joao Sousa v Radu Albot - 1.42 Sousa
- 37th v 81st.
- 3-0 Sousa in head to heads.
- Albot is largely a Challenger player.
- 8 defeats in 9 for Sousa is dire stuff.
- He did take a set of Kohlschreiber in Halle.
- Tough to quantify Albot's form.
- 2nd round and 3rd round (Wimbledon) on grass last year suggests Sousa likes this surface.
- 2 4 setters for Albot at Wimbledon last year was solid.
- Again not a match which appeals given I cannot get a strong handle on Albot.
Carlos Berlocq v Viktor Troicki - 1.34 Troicki
- 62nd v 39th.
- Last head to heads 2008.
- Recent losses for Carlos v 23rd, 13th, 11th, 82nd and 18th so it takes a good un to beat him.
- Berlocq though is 4-11 win/loss on grass and there is a real feel that this guy is, as a South American, a hard court/clay court specialist.
- First Round, First Round, Second round Troicki last year on grass.
- 44th and 49th have beaten Troicki today.
- It is a wierd tennis today. Not many matches where I can get angles.
- Berlocq's South American roots suggests opposing him on grass. Troicki's form is not that good though.
Nikoloz Basilashvili v Marcos Baghdatis - 1.79 Basil
- 61st v 60th.
- No head to heads.
- 7 consecutive defeats for Baggy. He did retire last match with a back injury.
- On that basis, I would have to lay Baggy if he wins the first set. No other research needed.