Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Thanks again for those attending the live chat webinar and sharing your possible trading angles with the group. Great stuff! Attendees also learned a new DRT strategy which paid off, and then some, for Mjallby yesterday. It revolved around not using the +1 market when an underdog scores first, but engineering a trade whereby we break even on the draw and load up on the favourite a goal down in the match odds market. It incentivises you to stay in the match if there is an equalizer because you'll break even, and the carrot is the bigger gains should the favourite go on to win. Mjallby netted me £183 yesterday. It was 2-2 in the 90th minute, and they scored a late late winner. 2 of the 3 possible outcomes in the match odds market are covered. What's not to like. I may name this the '2 out of 3 ain't bad' strategy in remembrance of that famous betfair trader Meatloaf.
Few matches but matches worth monitoring all the same.

ITALIAN SERIA A

19:45 - Inter v Lecce - 1.27 Inter

  • Italian matches are usually 1-0, 0-1 as per Cagliari and Brescia but somehow yesterday we saw a 3-3, 0-3 and 2-3 in this defensively driven league.
  • Lecce are newly promoted and Inter should be eyeing the win.
  • There are no really eyecatching transfers out for Inter Milan but they have a major signing in a certain Lukaku who is a great forward. Godin from Atl Madrid on a free is an inspired signing too.
  • We expect the home win but simply don't know. This weekend the defensive coaches took a bow. 0-1 Newcastle, 1-2 Palace, shutting shop and keeping teams from collecting shots on target.
  • We simply don't know what to expect of Lecce. Logical assumptions assume an unwelcome welcome from Inter.

SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN

18:00 - IFK Goteborg v Kalmar FF - 1.98 IFK

IFK (7th)

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • 3 draws in 4 matches.
  • Unbeaten in 8 matches.
  • Only 1 home loss. 1-1 draw v Kalmar this season.

Kalmar (11th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • No win in 12 matches.
  • 2 draws and a win last 3 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 8 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away, only 1 at fulltime.
  • Only 1 win home and away v top 10.
  • 10 of 13 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, IFK should not lose on probability alone. With Kalmar keeping only 2 clean sheets, IFK are expected to score. Only 1 win v top 10 Kalmar.
  • Note the 5 0-0's at halftime Kalmar, only 1 fulltime. So take on the 0-0 2nd half. We are with IFK.

18:00 - Sundsvall v Elfsborg - 2.78 Elfsborg

Sundsvall (16th)

  • No win in 14 and in 6 at home.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Conceded last 6 matches.
  • All 2 wins this season were 3-1 at home v 3rd and 14th. 3-1 loss to Elfsborg earlier this season.
  • Scored and conceded in all matches v 7th-11th inclusive.

Elfsborg (9th)

  • 4 losses in 6 matches.
  • 2 wins recently came at home.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats conceding 2+ goals.
  • No win 7 away.
  • Conceded last 8 and last 10 away.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v 8th and lower.
  • 7 of 10 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • 2.78 the favourite suggests caution but an argument could be made for the Elf not losing. Only 1 loss home and away v 8th and lower plays only 2 wins all season (3-1) at home.
  • But please remember 2.78 suggests this could go any way.

18:00 - Falkenbergs v Hammarby - 1.64 Hammarby

Falkenbergs (14th)

  • Only 3 wins all season.
  • 2 1-1 draws last 3 matches.
  • No defeat in 5 at home. Scored in their last 4 at home.
  • All defeats home and away v the top 6. 6-2 loss v Hammarby.

Hammarby (5th)

  • 6 wins and a 2-2 last 7 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored in their last 7 matches.
  • Conceded last 5 away.
  • 6-3-6-3-3 goals scored v 14th and lower home and away.
  • 7 goals scored away last 15 minutes of matches.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. It keeps coming up with Hammarby.
  • Hammarby should not lose, even if they concede 2 goals.

DANISH SUPERLIGA

18:00 - AC Horsens v AaB - 2.2 AaB

Horsens

  • No draw.
  • Only 2 wins in 6 matches.
  • 4 losses without scoring and conceding 2+ goals.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Not scored at home yet.

AaB

  • 2 wins came at home.
  • 3/3 losses away 0-0-1 goals scored.

Conclusions

  • This does not greatly appeal. Only one clean sheet plays 0-0-1 scored away Not for me.

IRISH PREMIER DIVISION

19:45 - Dundalk v UCD - 1.11 Dundalk

Dundalk (1st)

  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • No defeat in 16 and in 12 at home.
  • Scored last 17 and last 12 at home.
  • 3 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • 2-1 and 1-3 wins v UCD already this season.
  • Unbeaten at home.

UCD (10th)

  • All 5 wins came at home.
  • 4 consecutive defeats.
  • 26 of 42 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • All defeats bar a draw away.

Conclusions

  • Even if Dundalk concede, they should win. After all, they have already done this twice v UCD this season.
  • Expectation for at least a goal before halftime. If 0-0 at 20 minutes, back 1-0, 2-0, any unquoted Dundalk in the halftime score market.

NORWEGIAN ELITESERIEN

18:00 - Bodo Glimt v Valerenga - 1.92 Bodo

Bodo (2nd)

  • Only 3 defeats, 2 came away.
  • 4 wins and a draw last 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored last 4 home matches, all wins.
  • Scored last 9 at home.
  • Led at halftime in 7/9 at home.
  • Only 1 home loss v 5th. Lost to Valerenga away 6-0.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.

Valerenga (6th)

  • No win in 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 away matches.
  • Conceded last 9 away.
  • Not beaten the top 8 away.
  • 11 of 15 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • 12 of 17 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • If 0-0 at halftime, expect 2nd half goals. Look at Valerenga.
  • Despite the emphatic win v Bodo earlier this season, Valerenga are worse away from home. A tentative nod towards Bodo not to lose.
  • They have led at halftime in 7/9 at home.