I am back now and keen to get on with live chats. A couple of the marquee teams slipped up this weekend (Champions League contenders) - the most marked were PSG and Bayern Munich. There were a heck of a lot of 2-3 scorelines where the Champions League side so nearly came a cropper. Inter Milan were my highlight yesterday. I like niches, be they markets (lay 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected) or teams (Inter I have flagged up to follow this season). Inter delivered again. An 88th minute winner. If you only follow a handful of teams and get to know them, you will make some good profits. Research pointed to a hint that Inter were struggling up front but also a hint that they can score 2nd half goals.
It is a quiet day today from the elite leagues. Champions League this week so plenty for me to research.
20:00 - Arsenal v West Brom - 1.35 Arsenal
- Arsenal have won the last 3 home head to heads and interestingly West Brom have won the last 2 head to heads at their gaff.
- Arsenal have now failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches, all away from home, yet scored 7 goals in 2 home matches. A very strange side this Arsenal side. They'd win the title if based on home performance and be in a relagation scrap if based on away performance.
- West Brom are their usual selves. An over-reliance on defence because there is no strong attacking force. West Brom have scored 1-1-1-1-0 this season, won 2, drawn one 1-1.
- Arsenal won at home the last time they played a league match prior to a Europa League match. We expect an Arsenal win today unless West Brom's defence suddenly clicks into gear. The expectation is for 2/3 goals at least from the Arse.
- 6 goals in 2 home matches before halftime -a very small sample but laying the 0-0 in the halftime score market is there.
20:00 - Betis v Levante - 1.93 Betis
- These 2 last met in April 2016. When they last met in head to heads, Betis won home and away 1-0.
- Real Betis have won 3/5 home matches against promoted teams while top-six promoted teams have lost 57% of away matches against top half non-Big Two teams since 2012-13.
- Top-six promoted teams have conceded first in 64% of away matches against top half non-Big Two teams since 2012-13.
- No draw for Betis yet this season sees away defeats v Barcelona and Villareal. They beat Real Madrid 0-1 last match.
- 2 2-1 home wins for Betis.
- 2-2-2-2-0 goals before halftime in Betis matches. The one match where you'd expect a goal before halftime (v Real Madrid) bucked the trend.
- Levante remain unbeaten, have scored in all matches, but have 3 score draws sandwiched between 2 home wins.
- 3 80th+ minute penalties for Levante have been point saving penalties and are something to factor into your thoughts this evening. How would I use this? If 0-0 or Betis one goal lead, I would take a chance and lay the 0-0 or Betis and hope Levante continue to engineeer late penalties. It could actually be a tactic they work on in the last 10 minutes, or it could of course be pure coincidence!
- Levante do look layable if scoring first because of the score draws and also Betis 2-1 wins at home.