Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

DRT Daily Research Bulletin, May 25, 2015

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches

Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised

Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are not the pre-market favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds).

Lay the underdog scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market, especially in BANKER matches.

Do note matches where one team is red carded. The opponents do tend to score next more often than not.

The research drops off in depth and quality at this time of the year. I do prefer a focus on the major European leagues as I know the teams well, and can rely on the world class players to deliver ( most times) as per the form. So please tread warily. I personally prefer to focus on the bankers or any other matches I flag up with a strong angle in.

2pm - Silkeborg v Randers  - 1.62 away

Standout Stats

  • 4 consecutive Randers wins in the cup ended with a Silkeborg 1-2 win last time out
  • This is 12th v 4th in the Danish top league after 30 matches. Obviously Silkeborg are having a terrible season.

Silkeborg

  • Silkeborg are going to finish bottom regardless.
  • Only 2 wins all season came away from home.
  • 7 losses and 2 draws in their last 9 home matches.
  • No win in 14 at home
  • Conceded in their last 26 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets at home
  • Only 1 0-0 at home
  • Conceded 13 first half and 14 second half goals at home

Randers

  • No win in 5 away
  • Only 2 losses in 9 matches.
  • 27% over 2.5 goals away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Randers are not in the best of form away from home and 27% over 2.5 goals away suggests if Randers win, it is likely to be to nil.
  • Silkeborg have not won in their last 9 matches at home and must be opposed, having accumulated only 14 points in 30 matches.
  • Lay Silkeborg if they score first.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3pm - Middlesbrough v Norwich  - 2.7 away

Standout Stats

  • This is the Championship play-off final and the odds tell you everything.
  • 4-0 and 1-0 to Boro in the last 2 head to heads.
  • The league 2 play-off yesterday was a 0-0 at fulltime.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Good luck with this one! I would back 0-0 pre-match and hope that the importance of this match ensures a long-term 0-0.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3:45pm - Breda v VVV  - 1.66 home

Standout Stats

  • This is a Netherlands play-off. 0-1 to NAC Breda from the first leg.
  • NAC Breda finished 16th in the Eredivisie and VVV 7th in the Eerste Divisie.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • The markets expects the Eredivisie side to win today. They have a 0-1 advantage. 0-0 will do for them today based on away goals.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

4pm - FC Copenhagen v OB  - 1.8 home

Standout Stats

  • 5 consecutive Copenhagen wins in head to heads ended with a 1-0 OB win last time out.
  • This is 2nd v 7th in the Danish Superliga. Copenhagen are 10 points from 1st place.

Copenhagen

  • 3 matches remain this season, so they cannot win the title.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • No draw in 7 matches
  • No defeat in 12 at home and scored in their last 13 at home.
  • 5 wins in their last 7 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home
  • Scored 16 goals either side of halftime at home
  • Scored in their last 11 home matches.

OB

  • No draw in 13 away matches
  • 2 consecutive 0-2 wins away
  • Only 1 loss away in their last 7
  • 4 wins in their last 5 away matches
  • Only 1 0-0 all season
  • No 0-0 at halftime away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Copenhagen have the better of it historically. Their season is over really apart from clinging to 2nd place.
  • Lay the late draw. OB tend to avoid them recently
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score based on OB. Copenhagen also tend to score either side of halftime .
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

5pm - Lazio v Roma  - 2.7 home

Standout Stats

  • The Rome Derby and the market cannot split the sides
  • 2-0 Roma, 0-0, 2-2 in the last 3 head to heads.
  • This is 3rd v 2nd in Seria A
  • 2 matches left this season. Lazio are in danger of losing 3rd place if they lose. The winner today will be 2nd coming into the last match of the season.

Lazio

  • Scored in their last 7 at home.
  • 5 wins, a draw and a loss in their last 7 at home.
  • Lost to Inter Milan last home match.
  • Only 1 draw at home
  • Losses at home v 1st, 4th, 6th, 8th and 16th
  • 72% over 2.5 goals at home
  • 39 goals scored at home

Roma

  • Scored in their last 5 at home.
  • 3 wins in their last 4 matches.
  • 2 defeats in their last 3 away , both 2-1 losses to the Milan sides.
  • Only 1 win away v top 10

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Both sides are not that hot v top teams home ( Lazio) and Roma ( away)
  • 72% over 2.5 goals suggests both teams to score .
  • Lay any late draw . Lazio don't tend to draw at home.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

5pm - Stabaek v Rosenborg  - 1.81 away

Standout Stats

  • Stabaek have a 1-3 and 4-1 in the last 2 league head to heads. Interesting!
  • This is 2nd v 1st in the Norwegian Eliteserien after 9 matches

Stabaek

  • Only 1 loss this season
  • 6 consecutive wins to nil ended with a 3-3 last time out v Molde
  • 1-1, 1-0, 1-0, 4-0 at home
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • Only conceded 1 goal at home

Rosenborg

  • No draw in 4 away and in 6 overall
  • Scored and conceded in their last 3 away matches. Have scored in their last 9 matches
  • Scored 2+ goals in 8 of their 9 matches this season.
  • Scored 3+ goals in 5 matches this season
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • No 0-0's at halftime away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Stabaek have been good in head to heads. I think both teams could score today. I would lay Stabaek if they score first today. Rosenborg have scored 2+ goals in 8 of their last 9 matches.
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6pm - Akhisar Belediye v Bursaspor  - 1.8 away

Standout Stats

  • Akhisar have won only 1 of the last 7 head to head matches. 2-2, 0-0, 2-1 Akhisar in the last 3 head to head at Akhisar.
  • This is 14th v 6th in the Turkish Super Lig. Akhisar are 7 points from relegation.
  • Bursaspor are 4 points from 4th place

Akhisar

  • Only 2 matches remaining. Akhisar are safe from relegation now.
  • Only 4 wins since 24th October 2014
  • Only 1 win at home v 10th and higher was against Fenerbahce who they beat home and away
  • Draws at home v 5th-10th.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home

Bursaspor

  • 4 match losing streak away
  • No win in 7 away includes 4 consecutive  losses
  • Lost away to 12th and 13th and playing 14th today

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Bursaspor are in poor away form and could finish 4th if winning a couple of their 2 matches remaining.
  • Not a match that interests me at this part of the season.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6pm - Hacken v Falkenbergs  - 1.44 home

Standout Stats

  • 1-1 and 1-2 Falkenbergs in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 7th v 13th in the Swedish top flight

Hacken

  • 4 wins in their last 5  matches
  • Only 1 win in 4 home matches though.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • No 0-0

Falkenbergs

  • 3 consecutive away defeats
  • Scored and conceded in their last 3 away
  • Scored in their last 7 matches overall
  • Only 2 wins this season came at home.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches. 3 consecutive away defeats scoring and conceding.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Hacken are in form at the moment. Falkenbergs are in poor away form at the moment. You'd have to favour the home team on form. Falkenbergs have been scoring and conceding in losses recently so if scoring first, lay them.
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score  - 4 goals in recent Falkenbergs matches suggests we might see a goal before halftime
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6pm - Istanbul BB v Fenerbahce  - 2.44 away

Standout Stats

  • In head to heads, the home team tends to win.
  • 2-0 to Fenerbahce in the most recent head to head in 2015
  • This is 4th v 2nd in the Turkish Super Lig

Istanbul

  • 2 matches remain. Istanbul won't be changing their league position even if winning the remaining 2 matches.
  • 3 match winning streak
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 home matches.
  • No defeat in 11 at home
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of the last 9 matches.
  • Only 3 losses in 23 matches.
  • Only 1 loss this season at home  v 3rd

Fenerbahce

  • 2 match winning streak away
  • Scored in their last 13 matches and last 14 away
  • No defeat in 8 matches.
  • Must win this match. 2 remain and Fener are 6 points shy of Galatasary. They must hope Galatasary lose their remaining 2 matches. Highly unlikely.
  • 3 wins and a draw in their last 4 away matches
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches
  • A bit ropey away to top 10.Only 2 wins, a loss to 1st and draws v 5th, 6th, 8th and 10th.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • A must win for Fenerbahce today although I think that they think the title is Galatasary's. Gala are not going to lose their remaining 2 matches in the current form they are in.
  • In head to heads, the home team is favoured. This will be a toughie for Fenerbahce today.Istanbul are undefeated in 8 at home.
  • Both teams could score today. I would lay IStanbul if they scored first.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6:45pm - CSKA Moscow v Rubin Kazan  - 1.65 home

Standout Stats

  • The home team tends to win in head to heads. 2-0 and 2-1 to CSKA in the last 2 head to heads at their ground.
  • This is 3rd v 5th in the Russian Premier League. Both teams will move up a place with a win.
  • 2 matches remain this season.

CSKA

  • 4 match winning streak
  • Scored in their last 6 at home and conceded in their last 3 at home
  • Only 3 losses at home
  • Only 4 clean sheets
  • All defeats bar one v top 6 home and away
  • All wins at home v 7th and lower.
  • Have failed to beat any team 6th and higher at home
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home
  • 21 of 36 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Rubin Kazan

  • No win in 4 away matches
  • Only 2 wins in 7 matches came at home
  • Only 2 losses away v top 10.
  • Only 1 0-0 away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Home teams tend to win so advantage CSKA  today?They are likely to score at home today but only 4 clean sheets suggests Rubin could score and if Rubin score first, lay them.
  • CSKA are poor v 6th and higher at home so on form, they could lose, but based on head to heads, they should not lose.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FRENCH OPEN TENNIS There are so many matches that I cannot go really deep into the research. I hope you find it of interest and find some trading angles in. I have tried to make them clear. 10am - Alize Cornet v Roberta Vinci  - 1.98 Alize. Local gal Alize is near odds on here. Home support to ensure a strong performance?  29th v 38th in the world so close in the rankings but 0-4 to Roberta Vinci in head to heads is rather emphatic. I would lay the first set winner here as this could be a 3 setter today. 6-4 7-5 in Madrid earlier this year suggests we might get some leverage from the above. 10am - Fabio Fognini v Tatsuma Ito  - 1.04. It seems Foggy is an unpredictable devil but on his day, on clay, he is magnifique. He had a superb run in Italy 27th v 106th. Ito is yet to play on clay it seems. 1.4 is very enticing today if Foggy consents not to blow up mentally. For those wanting hysterics from the Italian, laying 1.04 is logical here. But he is in cracking form on clay , beating Dimitrov and pushing Berdych close infront of home support. 10am - Samuel Groth v Pablo Cuevas  - 1.09 Cuevas  Perhaps telling, the 1.09 match odds are 1.74 for 3 sets to nil. The market is a little less convinced of a 3 setter. 72nd in the world plays 23rd and there are no head to heads. WIth such a tentative 3-0 set betting odds, I would lay Cuevas if he is 2 sets to nil up. I would certainly lay Groth if he is leading sets wise in this match. 10am - Carla Suarez Navarro v Monica Niculescu  - 1.1 Carla  - I have been following Carla with interest and she only seems to falter against top 5 players currently. She is more consistently reaching finals and I would cheekily back her to win the French Open , albeit as a trading position. 8th v 67th  and 3-0 in head to heads. 1.38 for 2-0 is very enticing for Carla who did take a set off Sharapova in the Final in Italy. 10am - Yoshihito Nishioka v Tomas Berdych  - 1.01  These odds players are always worth laying. 1.02 for Berdych in first to 3 sets. He could get injured or pull a muscle. Highly unlikely for the thighs like treetrucks from Czech Republic. 1.22 is rather appealing for 3-0 for 4th in the world v 146th. REcent losses came v Rafa and Federer for Tomas. Nishikoa did reach the quarters of a challenger event. The only concern here is the unknown for Berdych. So often we see matches with no head to heads produce a "figuring out period" for the hotshot until he clicks and pushes on. I do expect 3-0 sets at 1.22 11:30am - Gastao Elias v Benoit Paire  - 1.48 Paire. Bonjours Rodders, we have a local here in Paire. 152nd v 71st in the world. The rankings difference is reasonable. Another match with no head to heads. I will expect home advantage to play a massive part for Paire and expect him to win. Do lay Elias if he is leading in sets. 11:30am - Lucas Pouille v Gilles Simon  - 1.39 Beaujolais Rodders. 2 Frenchies in the one match. On the rankings 90th ranked Pouille should not have enough for 13th ranked Simon.These 2 have not met in head to heads. 2.76 for 3-0 says everything about how the market thinks this match will unfold. I would suggest if you fancy the better ranked Simon, you might get better odds in play although it will rely on his winning the first set. If Simon is 2-0 up in sets, lay him to win 3-0 or lay him in the match odds. Pouille may nick a set in a tie breaker. I do expect a player so near the top 10 to beat a player nearer 100th. 11:30am - Taro Daniel v Fernando Verdasco  - 1.16 Had a great Italian open, did Cheryl Fernando-Verdasco. 168th in the world v 34th  -this is yet another match where the 2 players have not met before. He did shockingly lose 0-2 in Barcelona to 208th ranked Rublev so there is a chink in the armour.  Verdasco is a rare straight sets victor recently so you might want to lay 3-0 sets betting if he leads 2-0. 11:30am - Yanina Wickmayer v Elina Svitolina  - 1.26 Elina. 78th v 21st in the rankings. No head to heads.  Elina has only reached the 2nd round in her last 2 clay tournaments so will not be going deep this tournament. She did lose to Ana Ivanovic and Serena's brother Venus. Wickmayer did reach the semis of the Prague Open on clay so she is in a bit of form, although I do acknowledge that the tournament may have lacked depth. I would lay Elina if she wins the first set. 12pm -Agnieszka Radwanska v Annika Beck   - 1.08 Rad 14th v 83rd in the rankings. Rad leads 1-0 in head to heads. 6-0, 6-0 to Radwanska in Indian Wells is compelling. THe question is whether that translates here . If so, then 1.27 for 2-0 is interesting. 12pm - Marinko Matosevic v Thomaz Bellucci - 1.13 Bell 100th v 40th in the World. Another match where we have no head to heads. Matosevic has gone out in the first round in all of his last 4 clay tournaments, all 2 sets to nil. THis is a first to 3 sets of course. Bellucci won the final of the Geneva Open so is obviously in red-hot form and has the clear momentum which might allow a back of 3-0 sets at near evens for the speculative. Always a risk when players have not met before 12pm - Samantha Stosur v Madison Brengle - 1.25 Sam 6-7 , 6-1, 7-6 when these 2 met in Hobart in 2014 suggests a competitive match and a lay of Sam Stosur at such short odds. On recent form though, Stosur won the tournament in Strasbourg, a tournament that Brengle went out in, in the first round. Based on most recent form, Stosur has the momentum. 1pm - Andrey Golubev v Tommy Robredo - 1.23 Robredo. 135th v 19th in the World rankings. Golubev has taken a set off Robredo in the last 2 losses to Robredo, one was recently on hard court at Indian Wells. I would lay RObredo therefore in the 3-0 set betting market at 1-0 or 2-0 sets up in the hope Gol nicks another set. 1:30pm - Nikoloz Basilashvili v Thanasi Kokkinakis - 1.27 Kokk 160th v 84th in the world. Basilashvili retired in the 2015 meeting between these 2 in Bordeaux. Kokk led 6-2 and 3-0 which augurs well for today BUT remember that Basil may not have been 100% in that first set. With that in mind, laying Kokkinakis espectially if he won the first set is an obvious angle in. We simply don't know what Basil will be like 100% . He was Fawlty in Bordeaux 1:30pm - Santiago Giraldo v Donald Young - 1.29 Giraldo 64th v 52nd in the rankings. What is the story behind such one-sided odds? Maybe it's because Giraldo has the momentum, reaching the semi final on clay in Geneva, whilst Young has been dumped out of the 1st round in his last 3 matches. 1:30pm - David Goffin v Filip Krajinovic - 1.13 Goffin. 18th v 99th in the world. 6-4 7-6 on clay in the NEtherlands in 2014 Goffin is the clear form candidate here, losing to Ferrer in the quarter final in Rome. Filip has managed 2 2nd round exits in CHallenger events. 2.04 for 3-0 sets might have legs. For you banker bet watchers, Goffin to win the first set at 1.35? I would react too if backing and he didn't by laying Filip 3-0 set betting or in the match odds. Goff should have too much 1:30pm - Denis Istomin v Nick Kyrgios - 1.27 Nick. 77th v 30th in the rankings, Nick is quickly on the ascendancy. A recent win over Federer impressed but lost to Isner next. Istomin's recent form is skewed a little by playing Bellucci twice recently and winning 0-2. Krygios should oblige although I would not be so sure of 3-0 sets. 1:30pm - Kaia Kanepi v Maria Sharapova - 1.09 Shara. 50th v 2nd in the rankings, Maria showed she is in good form by beating a red hot Suarez Navarro in the final in Italy. Kanepi lost recently to Stosur and should not have enough to worry Maria. 2-0 is 1.4 which is tempting but Maria's serving can be the equivalent of watching Sunday League football at times . There is minimal downside in laying her at 1.09 although I do think she should win 2-0 as she did in the 4 matches prior to the final in Italy. It's 4-0 in head to heads. Only once did Maria drop a set.  1:30pm - Gael Monfils v Edouard Roger Vasselin  - 1.09 Gael 14th v 123rd, Monfils has been electric and should have too much for Rogers Vaseline. He was superb at Monaco and reached the semi finals at Nastase Tiriac. There is a feeling with a 2nd round departure in Madrid that Gael Tildsley may have run out of gas. A hope he is renewed today in front of home support. 1.09 suggests 3-0 sets win at 1.74 and so do the rankings. Expect Monfils to fight back if he goes a set or 2 down. He should do well in this tournament and has nothing to fear, beating the likes of Federer twice recently. 1:30pm - Alison Riske v Sara Errani  - 1.2 Sara 6-4 6-4 to Riske in CHina in 2014. this is 47th v 17th in the rankings. These are  2 players in poor form so I would lay the 1st set winner here in the match odds market. 1:30pm -Maria Teresa Torro Flor v Victoria Azarenka  - 1.08 Aza 27th ranked Aazarenka has been plummeting in the rankings. I don't know the ranking of Flor. Flor has gone out in the first round in her last 4 rounds.  Some signs of a return to form for Azarenka with a quarter final in Italy, beating Wozniaki on the way - a good yard stick. She lost to Sharapova with ease in that quarter final , suggesting she take advantage of this easier assignment as she is likely to be held up by top 10 players deeper in the tournament. 3pm - Andy Murray v Facundo Arguello  - 1.01  Ruby, Ruby, Ruby, Ruby! I expect 3-0 sets from Andy today against 137th Arguello. No head to heads and the last time that happened , Andy lost to Brna Crcic in Qatar if memory serves. There is always the risk that the opponent may just be a player Andy is unsuited to. This falls into the category of " time to suss my opponent out". I do though expect Andy to be on the ball, after deciding to quit the Italian Open . Andy won in Madrid on clay v Nadal so should be raring to go against an opponent who did lose in a recent Challenger Final on clay. 1.25 for 3-0. As ever at these odds, take a contrarian view and lay Murray at 1.02. There is quite simply minimal losses  and maximum upside. 3pm - Simone Bolelli v Steve Darcis  - 1.19 Bolelli 60th-76th in the world so the rankings are awfully close for such odds . Darcis pushed Novak in the Miami open losing 5-7 2nd set so could be competitive here. I would therefore look at laying Bolelli if he leads 2-0 or lay him 3-0 set betting if we can get under evens. Mathilde Johansson v Heather Watson - 1.4 Heather. Guernsey's finest was put in her place by red hot Suarez Navarro recently. 228th v 45th in the rankings. A far easier assignment for Heather today. The head to head win for Johansson came in 2011 so I think can be discounted. I think Heather should win today in a Tournament she will not last long in alas. 2-0 sets? Not so sure. 3:30pm - Karolina Pliskova v Shuai Zhang - 1.24 Kar. 12th v 122nd in the rankings is compelling here. No head to heads. plis reached the final of Prague and won on clay, but followed up with a 2nd round exit at Madrid on clay and 1st round exit , due to retirement I think, in Italy. Is she carrying a niggle? If you think so, lay Plis 1-0 sets up at short odds.