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A few dead rubbers creeping into the World Cup now as 2 matches have been played in the group stages and one remains. Tennis wise, the Wimbledon qualifiers start today. I am looking after my niece at the moment (bloney teenagers) but I do hope I can trade the tennis @drtclub.

15:00 - Uruguay v Russia - 2.82 Uruguay

  • 2/2 wins for both sides. A draw sees Russia through as top placed side. A win sees Uruguay through.
  • I think the Russian goal scoring will dampen today against a Uruguay side now with 6 clean sheets in 7 matches and 5 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Russia have scored 8 in 2 matches v the 2 weak links Saudi Arabia and Egypt. A match v 14th ranked Uruguay will see Russia back to the pre-World Cup struggles.
  • The market is aware that this is not really a must-win match for either side. Given that this is Tournament football, we may see a resting of some of the stars today with future battles in mind?
  • On form, I would lay any Russia lead.

15:00 - Saudi Arabia v Egypt - 1.9 Egypt

  • These 2 are leaving the World Cup now. A match making no appeal at all.

19:00 - Iran v Portugal - 1.7 Portugal

  • Iran can actually progress from the Group stage with a win today v Portugal.
  • A 0-1 win v Morocco saw Iran grateful for their lucky clover. A 90th minute own goal! They lost 1-0 to Spain. A Diego Costa shot the difference.
  • Portugal's 3-3 v Spain saw them needing to win the next match v Morocco. They won 1-0 in yet another tight match.
  • I would back 0-0 pre match here. The Iranians could pack the defence again but the fact is that the Iranians have not actually scored a goal themselves!
  • A draw does for Portugal today regardless of the Spanish result. A win of course puts it all beyond doubt. 4th ranked Portugal v 37th ranked Iran. This Portugal ranking should be replicated in the final result.

19:00 - Spain v Morocco - 1.38 Spain

  • Spain will be guaranteed a top 2 spot with a win today. Iran can still qualify. A draw should do for Spain today against a Morocco side returning home.
  • 10th v 41st in the rankings.
  • Unbeaten in 22 matches, that should continue for Spain.

SWEDISH SUPERETTAN

18:00 - IK Brage v Halmstads - 2.64 Halmstads

  • No head to heads since 2012.

IK Brage (6th)

  • Only 2 losses.
  • 3 wins in their last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 loss at home was a 3-4 loss v 1st in the league.
  • Scored in their last 6 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match at home.
  • 8 of 9 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • Led at halftime in 5/6 at home.

Halmstads (3rd)

  • Unbeaten in 10 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only played one of the top 6 away, a 2-0 loss v 5th.
  • 9 of 11 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Brage could very well lead at halftime but if scoring first, I would lay Brage if Brage scored first.
  • Both teams look likely to score.

18:00 - Degerfors v Falkenbergs - 2.6 Falkenbergs

  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws in head to heads.

Degerfors (11th)

  • Only 1 loss in 7 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 5 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All 4 defeats have come v the top 5.

Falkenbergs (1st)

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 away matches.
  • No defeat in 7 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All wins away v 6th and lower.

Conclusions

  • On form, both teams could score with Falkenbergs not losing.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on the stats.

FINNISH VEIKKAUSLIIGA

16:30 - HJK Helsinki v VPS - 1.33 HJK

  • 3 consecutive HJK wins in head to heads.

HJK Helsinki (1st)

  • Only 2 losses.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • No draw in 7 at home.
  • No defeat in 9 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 4 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • 14 of 17 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Losses came at home v 3rd and 5th 1-2.

VPS (6th)

  • Only 2 losses in 8 matches did come within the last 2 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 6 matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 5 of 7 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • All defeats have come v the top 3.

Conclusions

  • It seems conclusive. VPS tend to lose v the top 3, indeed 3 of those defeats came at home. Away today, they should struggle v a side scoring 2+ goals in each of their last 4 at home, with no defeat in 9 matches.
  • I expect an HJK win.

NORWEGIAN ELITESERIEN

18:00 - Odds BK v Brann - 1.56 Brann

  • 0-0 and 2-0 Brann in the last 2 head to heads.

Odds (10th)

  • Only 1 win in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 7 at home.
  • Scored and conceded in 6/7 matches v top 9 teams.
  • 2 losses and a draw v top 4 today.
  • 5 of 6 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Brann (1st)

  • Unbeaten.
  • Failed to score only in their last match.
  • Scored in their last 7 away.
  • Not conceded 2 goals this season.
  • 8 of 10 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The market is spot on here. If Odds score first, lay them. Brann have not conceded 2 goals this season.
  • Strong 2nd half leanings so if 0-0 at halftime, take it on.
  • Expect Brann not to lose. I would expect them to score today and end their solitary 1 match run without a goal.

TENNIS

EASTBOURNE INTERNATIONAL

Kaia Kanepi v Kurumi Nara - 1.49 Kanepi

  • 100th v 102nd - tight rankings.
  • 2-0 Kanepi head to heads - 3 setter 2018.
  • Kanepi does not tend to go deep into tournaments - round of 32 the best recently.
  • Nara tends to have to go through qualifiers.

Andreas Seppi v Denis Istomin - 1.7 Seppi

  • 86th v 63rd.
  • 7-3 Seppi in head to heads. Last meeting 2016.
  • 6 of the last 7 head to heads saw both players winning at least a set.
  • I would look to laying the first set winner given head to heads.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkov v Karolina Pliskova - 1.33 Pliskova

  • 15th v 4th.
  • 5-0 Pliskova head to heads - all straight set wins.
  • 3 consecutive defeats for Pliskova.
  • Head to heads emphatic. Has Pliskova already mentally won the match, such is her dominance?

Gilles Muller v John Millman - 1.55 Muller

  • Muller is an excellent grass court player.
  • 25th v 128th.
  • Millman can be a thorn, particularly if in Australia. 5 setter v Muller in 2016 and Muller 2 set win 2018 (first set a tie breaker).
  • We may see Muller's odds rise in-play. In the hope Muller's grass court form is as impressive as last season, I will be happy to back Muller at higher odds in play.

Su-Wei Hsieh v Natalia Vikhlyantseva - 1.92 Natalia

  • The odds suggest laying the first set winner.
  • 83rd v 55th.
  • Hsieh won 2-0 2016 head to head.

Caroline Wozniacki v Camila Giorgi - 1.5

  • Wozza! Always shortlisted if in form. She has had a recent abdominal injury.
  • 3rd v 79th.
  • 3-3 head to heads.
  • Wozza retired 2 tournaments ago in Istanbul.
  • Giorgi failed to get out of qualifiers in Birmingham.
  • Question mark over Wozza who has not been her usually dominant self.
  • An interesting match. Faith in backing Wozza if at higher odds?

David Ferrer v Matteo Berrettini - 1.89 Ferrer

  • If the market has Ferrer priced to be competitive, take the hint. Likely a 3 setter this match and I would be keener to lay Matteo if he wins the first set.

Stan Wawrinka v Andy Murray - 1.62 Murray

  • 9th v 16th.
  • A fascinating match. Murray on the come-back trail will be tested.Andy last played during the grass court season last season and he lost to Querrey at Wimbledon, the recent victor over Stan.
  • It's tough to discern what will happen. If you can watch, you'll be able to gauge Murray's fitness.

Kristina Mladenovic v Heather Watson - 1.78 Kristina

  • Heather in the UK is likely to battle.
  • 11th v 74th.
  • 4-2 Kristina head to heads, 3-0 recently.
  • 2 consecutive 2-0 losses on grass for Heather but at least one set was a tie breaker.
  • So we may see Kristina's odds rise in play, if you fancy backing the higher ranked player at higher odds in-play.

WIMBLEDON QUALIFIERS

Matteo Donati v Bernard Tomic - 1.08

  • We expect Tomic to be seen at Wimbledon.

Thanasi Kokkinakis v Marcelo Arevalo - 1.08 Kokkinakis

  • Another Aussie we'd expect to see, Kokkinakis.

Hugo Dellien v Go Soeda - 1.27 Soeda

  • Soeda a predominantly Challenger tour player. 150th ranking.
  • He has reached the semi finals in Wimbledon qualifiers so expect him to go deep into these qualifiers.

Thomas Fabbiano v Guilherme Clezar - 1.08 Fabbiano


Daniel Elahi Galan v Nicolas Mahut - 1.09 Mahut


Ilya Ivashka v Daniel Evans - 1.32 Daniel Evans

  • Evans was last at Wimbledon 2016, I am keen to follow this match given Evans is a Brit.

Dustin Brown v Stefan Kozlov - 1.46 Dustin

  • 125th v 167th.
  • Dustin Brown does tend to play in the Wimbledon main event.
  • Expectation for Brown to get through qualifiers.

ATP Antalya

Yuichi Sugita v Guido Pella - 1.55 Sugita

  • 40th v 64th.
  • Sugita won the only head to head in 3 sets 2016.
  • Both players have recently lost to Kudla, Pella in qualifiers in Halle, Sugita in the quarter finals same event.
  • On recent form, and with Sugita's recent win over Dominic Thiem on grass, I am with Sugita here.

Blaz Kavcic v Marcos Baghdatis - 1.36 Marcos

  • 97th v 103rd.
  • Last head to head 2013.
  • Baggy is usually reliable when the odds suggest as such.
  • 5 consecutive losses for Blaz ended with 2 wins in qualifying here.
  • 4 consecutive losses for Baggy.
  • The value? Lay Baggy if he wins the first set.

Dusan Lajovic v Filip Horansky - 1.18 Lajovic

  • 75th v 314th.
  • 6-4 7-5 Dusan win 2018 on clay.
  • Good clay form for Dusan but yet to play grass.
  • Stay with the market?

Jiri Vesely v Jordan Thompson - 1.84 Jordan

  • 62nd v 94th.
  • Both players recent Challenger tour players.
  • Value may be in laying the first set winner?

Mikhail Youzhny v Robin Haase - 1.89 Haase

  • Youzhny usually very competitive when not out of it in as far as the market is concerned.
  • 84th v 42nd.
  • Last head to heads 2014.
  • 5-2 Youzhny head to heads but 2-0 last 2 for Haase.
  • 6 consecutive Youzhny matches saw tie breaker sets so we expect the favourite (Haase) odds to rise in play in lieu of a competitive match.