Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook. Monday is normally my day off from Telegram.

ENGLISH FA CUP

19:45 - Wycombe v Tottenham - 1.22 Tottenham

  • In-play stats have been good for the FA Cup.

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Athletic Bilbao v Getafe - 2.30 Athletic Bilbao

Athletic Bilbao - 13th

  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches.
  • Win, Loss, Win, Loss at home recently.
  • No draw in 9 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • Not played 12th-18th at home.
  • 1-1 draw last head to head.
  • 9/13 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 6 goals scored last 15 mins of home matches.

Getafe - 12th

  • 2 1-0 losses and 2 wins last 4 matches.
  • Loss, Win, Loss, Win away.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v teams below them in the league.
  • 5/7 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The market finds it hard to split these 2. Strong 2nd half scoring for both sides. Although Getafe are largely unbeaten home and away v teams below them in the league, the concern is too many draws and an inability to consistently score that 2nd half.

PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA

14:30 - Belenenses v Tondela - 2.25 Belenenses

Belenenses - 17th

  • 4 losses and a 0-0 last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 win at home came v Braga.
  • Failed to score in 9 matches this season.
  • 4/5 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Tondela - 12th

  • 4 consecutive away losses.
  • No win in 6 away matches, conceding last 6 away.
  • Not played the bottom 3 away.

Conclusions

  • Tondela are yet to beat a side away but have not played the bottom 3 away. Belenenses have only won 1 match.
  • In-play stats for me. But Belenenses tend to fail to score this season so will they really score that 2nd goal today?

16:30 - Rio Ave v Santa Clara - 2.00 Rio Ave

Rio Ave - 10th

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches came last home match.
  • 2 home wins came v 7th and 11th.

Santa Clara - 9th

  • Only 2 wins in 12 matches did come away.
  • Win, Win, Loss, Draw away recently.
  • Conceded last 11 matches and last 6 away.
  • Wins away v 5th, 11th, and 15th.

Conclusions

  • Not a match which appeals on pre-match form. Those patterns are not really there. I do note Santa Clara have conceded last 11 matches. Remember that today! In-play stats here for me.

17:00 - Benfica v Nacional - 1.18 Benfica

Benfica - 3rd

  • Only 2 losses.
  • 2 recent score draws came away.
  • All wins bar a single loss.
  • Scored in their last 8 and last 7 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored last 7 at home.
  • 100% wins v 10th-17th home and away.
  • 10/15 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 6 goals scored at home last 15 mins of matches.

Nacional - 15th

  • 6 losses and a win last 7 matches.
  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 away.
  • All defeats away v the top 6 conceding 2+ goals.

Conclusions

  • If Benfica score 2 goals again, that should be enough. 100% wins v 10th and 17th, Benfica will not be concerned too much with 15th.
  • Benfica are late goalscorers.

20:15 - Farense v Porto - 1.40 Porto

Farense - 16th

  • Only 3 wins this season came at home.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Not played the top 3 at home.

Porto - 2nd

  • 7 wins and a 1-1 draw last 8 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away wins.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime all season.
  • 100% wins v 9th and lower.

Conclusions

  • No clean sheets plays scored in every match. Expect Porto to score at some point. 100% wins v 9th and lower for Porto augurs well for the away side today.

TURKISH SUPER LIG

13:00 - Kasimpasa v Sivasspor - 2.30 Sivasspor

Kasimpasa - 16th

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home defeats.
  • Conceded last 9 and last 4 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 10th and lower.

Sivasspor - 13th

  • 4 score draws and a win last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches away.
  • Both teams have scored before halftime last 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Only away loss came v 1st.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market given Sivasspor score and concede before halftime last 5 matches.
  • Not sure why Sivasspor are not warmer order, maybe because of the score draws but with only 1 away loss v 1st in the league, I'd give them the nod here not to lose at least.

16:00 - Alanyaspor v Ankaragucu - 1.50 Alanyaspor

Alanyaspor - 7th

  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 9 at home.
  • Scored first in 8/9 at home.
  • Led at halftime in 7/9 at home.
  • Not played the bottom 4 at home but away, Loss, Draw, Loss.
  • 11 goals scored 15th-45th minute at home.
  • 5 goals scored at home last 15 minutes of matches.

Ankaragucu - 19th

  • 3 losses and a win last 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive away defeats.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 8 away matches.
  • Not beaten a top 13 team away.

Conclusions

  • The market looks right here although away from home, Alanyaspor have not beaten a bottom 4 side in 3 attempts. Will that change with home advantage? Only 1 home loss for Alanyaspor suggests they will get a more positive home result v the bottom 4 today.
  • Alanyaspor do tend to score first and lead at halftime at home so this may negate any trade.

16:00 - Fenerbahce v Kayserispor - 1.35 Fenerbahce

Fenerbahce - 3rd

  • 5 wins and a draw last 6 matches.
  • 3 losses and then 3 wins at home recently.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Scored in their last 7 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 3 home matches.
  • Conceded last 8 matches at home.
  • 100% wins v 16th and lower, the majority coming away from home.
  • 11/17 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Kayserispor - 17th

  • 3 wins and a loss last 4 matches.
  • 4/5 wins were 1-0 only.
  • 3 losses and a win last 4 away matches.
  • Not beaten the top 9 home or away.

Conclusions

  • Kayserispor have trouble scoring that 2nd goal away and with Fenerbahce scoring 2+ goals in each of their last 3 matches, that should seal the away side's fate.
  • Fenerbahce do score a lot more 2nd half.

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

17:45 - Jong Ajax v Go Ahead Eagles - 2.40 Jong Ajax

  • Leave this to in-play stats. 2.40 the favourite in a lesser league.

20:00 - FC Eindhoven v NEC Nijmegen - 2.15 NEC Nijmegen

FC Eindhoven - 10th

  • No win in 4 matches.
  • Win, Win, Loss, Win, Win, Loss at home recently.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 6 home matches.
  • Scored in each of their last 8 home matches.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home, only one at fulltime.
  • Only 1 win home and away v the top 13.
  • Scored and conceded 2+ goals in all home matches v the top 9.

NEC Nijmegen - 6th

  • Only 5 defeats.
  • 2 defeats, a win, and a draw last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 7 matches came last match.
  • Scored in their last 7 away.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 4 away matches.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v 9th and lower. 6-0 win last head to head.
  • Scored 6 goals first 15 minutes away and 5 goals last 15 minutes away.

Conclusions

  • If FC Eindhoven scored 2 goals, that still may not be enough. They have only 1 win home and away v the top 13.
  • NEC have only 1 loss home and away v 9th and lower and I will side with NEC even if they concede 2 goals.