Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook. I usually take Monday off but it looks an intriguing coupon with a lot of leagues in their infancy, and the inimitable Bodo Glimt!


SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN - 8 matches played

17:30 - Orebro v Malmo FF - 1.47 Malmo

  • 0-0-1 goals scored at home by Orebro. Only 2 wins, one came at home. Orebro failed to score in 5/7 matches.
  • Only 1 loss for Malmo came away v Djurgardens. 3 wins and a draw latest, all wins coming at home.
  • Win, Loss, Draw away, both teams scoring. In fact both teams have scored in all Malmo matches.
  • Angles? I am with the market here. Malmo should equalise if conceding first. Orebro look a little light goals wise at home.

17:30 - Elfsborg v Norrkoping - 2.62 Elfsborg

  • The market cannot split these 2.
  • Both have 3 wins.
  • Norrkoping have failed to score only once.
  • Elfsborg have conceded 2 goals at least in 3/4 home matches.
  • Those are the patterns.

SPANISH SEGUNDA DIVISION - 2 matches remain

17:30 - Oviedo v Mirandes - 2.64 Oviedo

  • A dead rubber.

20:00 - Las Palmas v Albacete - 2.3 Las Palmas

  • 14th v 22nd. Amazingly, bottom side Albacete can still save their season but must win 2 remaining matches and hope other results go their way.
  • Las Palmas have little to play for.
  • Las Palmas have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches which may give Albacete a sniff. Only 1 loss in 6 for Albacete suggests they are giving it a go. Draw, Win, Draw away recently.
  • Angles? Can Albacete take advantage of Las Palmas struggles to score latest and, indeed, their lack of motivation? Las Palmas potentially layable if scoring first. Albacete have had 2 consecutive 1-1's recently.

Almeria v UD Logrones - 1.53 Almeria

  • 3rd v 18th.
  • Almeria's goal is to remain in the play-off places. They cannot breach the top 2. Sporting Gijon are really the only side who can, with 2 wins, bump Almeria from the play-offs.
  • Logrones are 3 points above the relegation zone.
  • Only 1 win in 6 for Almeria saw 4 score draws. 5 score draws and a loss at home for Almeria. They may not lose today but the draw is still there.
  • Only 3 wins for Logrones since 8th January were 1-0 only. They won their last home match 1-0 and you think that if they win, 0-1 will be the scoreline. This suggests laying Logrones if they score first (remember the Almeria score draws?) and lay over 1.5 goals to cover the 0-1.
  • 1st half outcome: Almeria have drawn the first half in 10/15 home matches while there have been -2.5 goals in 9/12 UD Logrones away matches. UD Logrones have drawn the first half in 7/12 away matches.

Girona v Alcorcon - 2.18 Girona

  • 5th v 17th.
  • Like Almeria, Girona will be keen to keep this play-off place.
  • Alcorcon are 4 points above the relegation zone. A draw here, if my Carole Vorderman maths are right, is enough to guarantee La Liga 2 football for them.
  • 6 consecutive wins for Girona. They have the momentum. 5 clean sheets in 6 matches and interesting that their odds are not shorter given that recent form.
  • 2 consecutive home 1-0 wins so only just crossing the line.
  • 2 wins and a loss v Mallorca for Alcorcon is good recent away form. 3 clean sheets in 4 matches for Alcorcon too.
  • Both sides have a relatively high % of 0-0 at halftime, Alcorcon have 11! You may want to back 0-0 pre match and cash out at halftime if lucky enough to see a 0-0 at halftime.
  • Given the need for a win for both sides, lay any 2nd half 0-0/draw.

Fuenlabrada v Sporting Gijon - 1.92 Sporting Gijon

  • 13th v 7th. Fuenlabrada's season is over. Not so for Gijon who have a real chance at a play-off place but simply must win their remaining 2 matches and hope any one of 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th struggle. We have seen ample evidence in Italy and the Premier League that these fights for the play-offs do take unexpected twists.
  • Sporting Gijon matches recently have been very tight indeed. 2 1-0 losses, 2 0-0's, 2 1-0 wins (home) and a 1-0 loss.
  • 3 consecutive defeats for Fuenlabrada.
  • Angles? Sporting Gijon are keeping under 1.5 goals matches. Will that remain today? Certainly Fuenlabrada are layable if leading. 0-0 is in play given this Gijon pattern. If 0-0 at halftime, Back 0-1 Sporting 2nd half? Must win from now on.

Lugo v FC Cartagena - 1.66 Lugo

  • 20th v 16th. 2 excellent recent results for Cartagena, including v top placed Espanyol sees job done. They will not be involved in the relegation zone.
  • Lugo though are mired in relegation woes. 2 consecutive wins can help them, as long as other results go their way.
  • A dead rubber for Cartagena so I won't research. The market has done this a lot hasn't it? Put up the inferior form sides as strong odds on favourite based on needs must. And they don't always get it right. Are you with the market?
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 CD Lugo home matches against bottom-half teams and they have drawn the first half in 7/11 such matches. Cartagena FC have conceded first in 4/5 away matches against bottom-six teams.

Sabadell v Ponferradina - 1.77 Sabadell

  • 21st v 8th. Must wins for relegation-threatened Sabadell. Ponferradina's season is over. They cannot break into the play-off places. As above, this is another example of a poor side inserted as odds on favourite based on need and not form.
  • 3 consecutive losses plays 3 losses in 4 matches. 11 consecutive home matches unbeaten for Sabadell ended last match. That was consistent form.
  • 3 wins v the top 6 at home may give Sabadell a shout here, but do you trust bottom 2 odds on favourites?
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 6/8 CE Sabadell home matches against top-half teams and in 9/10 Ponferradina away matches against bottom-six teams. CE Sabadell have drawn the first half in 5/8 home matches against top-half teams.

CD Castellon v Rayo Vallecano - 2.14 Rayo

  • 19th v 6th.
  • This is a must win for both teams. One to avoid relegation, the other to retain a play-off place.
  • 2 draws and 3 defeats for Castellon failing to score in 4 consecutive matches is not a good foundation for Castellon.
  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches for Rayo Vallecano sees 2 consecutive wins.
  • Rayo have not yet beaten a bottom 5 side away, draw and 3 defeats so this match, season long, is far from over. On recent form, Rayo must take advantage of Castellon's inability score recently and that is what I will pin my hopes on. If Castellon score first, they are unlikely to score a 2nd so note that.

Leganes v Malaga - 1.55 Leganes

  • 4th v 15th.
  • As with the other play-off teams, business not concluded for Leganes. The market expects 4th to continue winning against a side whose season is over.
  • Malaga have failed to score in 4/5 matches, losing those 4.
  • Leganes are unbeaten in 6 matches albeit 4 draws.
  • I don't expect Leganes to lose.

NORWEGIAN ELITESERIEN

  • I include the game notes which may not be wholly effective as they are largely based on last season

14:00 - Odds BK v Sarpsborg - 1.92 Odds BK

  • Only 1 match played. 2-2 for Odds, 0-0 for Sarpsborg.
  • Match outcome: Odd Grenland have won 8/10 home matches against bottom-six teams while Sarpsborg have lost 6/11 away matches. Sarpsborg have conceded first in 9/15 away matches.

17:00 - Haugesund v Stabaek - 2.14 Haugesund

  • 0-0 and 2-2 the scorelines for both teams in their sole match.
  • 1st goal: FK Haug. have conceded first in 6/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while Stabaek have scored first in 8/10 away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 6/10 Stabaek away matches.

Brann v Bodo Glimt - 1.79 Bodo Glimt

  • 4/4 defeats for Brann, conceding 3 goals minimum. Great trading match recently v Rosenborg saw a 1-2 turn into a 3-2 Rosenborg win.
  • Bodo Glimt we know well. Goal at least before halftime, 2 goals minimum scored by them per match. That should remain our expectations going into this match. These 2 patterns are prolonged.

Kristiansund v Stromsgodset - 1.99 Kristiansund

  • 2 losses and a win for Kristiansund. Only one match played by Stroms saw a 3-1 home win.
  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 12/20 Kristiansund home matches and +2.5 goals in 10/12 Stromsgodset away matches against top-half teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 15/20 Kristiansund home matches.

Lillestrom v Viking - 2.58 Lillestrom

  • Loss in Lillestrom's sole match. A win and 2 defeats for Viking, failing to score last 2.
  • +2.5 goals: Promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 52% of home matches against bottom-half teams since 2015. There have been +2.5 goals in 9/11 Viking away matches. Viking have conceded first in 16/19 away matches.

Tromso v Sandefjord - 1.8 Tromso

  • Loss, Draw, Win for Tromso in their 3 matches, loss for Sandefjord.
  • +2.5 goals: Top-six promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 60% of home matches against bottom-six teams since 2015. There have been +2.5 goals in 7/12 Sandefjord away matches. Sandefjord have lost 8/14 away matches.

Mjondalen v Valerenga - 1.9 Valerenga

  • Mjondalen won their sole match. Draw, Win, Loss for Valerenga.
  • Match outcome: Mjondalen have lost 7/8 home matches against top-six teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 5/9 Valerenga away matches against top-six teams.

19:00 - Rosenborg v Molde - 2.4 Rosenborg

  • Both sides are unbeaten, hence the 2.4 the favourite. 2 draws away for Rosenborg but a 5-0 and 3-2 home win, latterly coming from 1-2 down, sees Rosenborg confident at home.
  • Win, Draw, Win for Molde, scoring 2-3-4 goals.
  • I cannot split these likely top 3 sides.

IRISH PREMIER DIVISION

17:45 - Derry City v St Patricks - 2.4 St Patricks

  • We're getting a good set of matches played now so time to start researching but I'll stick to my rule with this match, and the one below, to not research 2.4+ the favourite matches. Inevitably it becomes a waste of time as the conclusion is....I cannot split the teams!

Bohemians v Dundalk - 2.66 Bohemians

  • As above.

19:45 - Shamrock Rovers v Sligo Rovers - 1.66 Shamrock Rovers

Shamrock Rovers - 1st

  • Only 1 loss came last match.
  • Unbeaten at home. Draw latest ended a run of 4 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored every match.
  • 1-1 draw already this season.
  • Scored and conceded all bar 1 at home.

Sligo Rovers - 2nd

  • Not played the top 2 away but are unbeaten away from home.
  • 2 draws and 3 wins last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 loss came at home.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Failed to score only in that defeat.

Conclusions

  • The 2 best teams early season so a surprise that the market has lurched so much in Shamrock's favour. They are unbeaten at home, yes, but Sligo are unbeaten away.
  • Both teams could score today and dependent on the in-play stats, I would lay Sligo if they scored first.

Drogheda v Longford - 1.82 Drogheda

Drogheda - 4th

  • 3 losses, 2 came away.
  • 2 draws and 3 wins last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 home loss came v 1st in the league.
  • That was the only match they failed to score in.
  • Conceded last 5 at home.
  • 0-4 win last head to head.
  • Scored less than 2 goals in all bar 1 at home.

Longford - 4th

  • Only 1 win came 1st match.
  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 away.
  • Only 2 clean sheets came at home.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in 4/5 matches.
  • All defeats v the top 4.

Conclusions

  • Longford's form is so poor that we have to automatically oppose them. They tend to lose v the top 4 consistently.
  • Drogs do have a worryingly poor scoring record at home, unable to consistently find that 2nd goal so do check the in-play stats that the Drogs are in an attacking mood against weaker opposition.

Waterford v Finn Harps - 1.63 Finn Harps

Waterford - 10th

  • All defeats bar an away win v 3rd bottom and home win v 2nd bottom.
  • 2-1 loss last head to head.
  • Not scored a 2nd goal at home.
  • Failed to score in 7 of their last 8 matches.

Finn Harps - 5th

  • Unbeaten home and away v 7th and lower.
  • Only 1 win in 8 though but put that in the above context.

Conclusions

  • Waterford look automatically opposable and if scoring first, are unlikely to follow up so that is a ready trading angle.