I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook. I usually take Monday off but it looks an intriguing coupon with a lot of leagues in their infancy, and the inimitable Bodo Glimt!
SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN - 8 matches played
17:30 - Orebro v Malmo FF - 1.47 Malmo
- 0-0-1 goals scored at home by Orebro. Only 2 wins, one came at home. Orebro failed to score in 5/7 matches.
- Only 1 loss for Malmo came away v Djurgardens. 3 wins and a draw latest, all wins coming at home.
- Win, Loss, Draw away, both teams scoring. In fact both teams have scored in all Malmo matches.
- Angles? I am with the market here. Malmo should equalise if conceding first. Orebro look a little light goals wise at home.
17:30 - Elfsborg v Norrkoping - 2.62 Elfsborg
- The market cannot split these 2.
- Both have 3 wins.
- Norrkoping have failed to score only once.
- Elfsborg have conceded 2 goals at least in 3/4 home matches.
- Those are the patterns.
SPANISH SEGUNDA DIVISION - 2 matches remain
17:30 - Oviedo v Mirandes - 2.64 Oviedo
20:00 - Las Palmas v Albacete - 2.3 Las Palmas
- 14th v 22nd. Amazingly, bottom side Albacete can still save their season but must win 2 remaining matches and hope other results go their way.
- Las Palmas have little to play for.
- Las Palmas have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches which may give Albacete a sniff. Only 1 loss in 6 for Albacete suggests they are giving it a go. Draw, Win, Draw away recently.
- Angles? Can Albacete take advantage of Las Palmas struggles to score latest and, indeed, their lack of motivation? Las Palmas potentially layable if scoring first. Albacete have had 2 consecutive 1-1's recently.
Almeria v UD Logrones - 1.53 Almeria
- 3rd v 18th.
- Almeria's goal is to remain in the play-off places. They cannot breach the top 2. Sporting Gijon are really the only side who can, with 2 wins, bump Almeria from the play-offs.
- Logrones are 3 points above the relegation zone.
- Only 1 win in 6 for Almeria saw 4 score draws. 5 score draws and a loss at home for Almeria. They may not lose today but the draw is still there.
- Only 3 wins for Logrones since 8th January were 1-0 only. They won their last home match 1-0 and you think that if they win, 0-1 will be the scoreline. This suggests laying Logrones if they score first (remember the Almeria score draws?) and lay over 1.5 goals to cover the 0-1.
- 1st half outcome: Almeria have drawn the first half in 10/15 home matches while there have been -2.5 goals in 9/12 UD Logrones away matches. UD Logrones have drawn the first half in 7/12 away matches.
Girona v Alcorcon - 2.18 Girona
- 5th v 17th.
- Like Almeria, Girona will be keen to keep this play-off place.
- Alcorcon are 4 points above the relegation zone. A draw here, if my Carole Vorderman maths are right, is enough to guarantee La Liga 2 football for them.
- 6 consecutive wins for Girona. They have the momentum. 5 clean sheets in 6 matches and interesting that their odds are not shorter given that recent form.
- 2 consecutive home 1-0 wins so only just crossing the line.
- 2 wins and a loss v Mallorca for Alcorcon is good recent away form. 3 clean sheets in 4 matches for Alcorcon too.
- Both sides have a relatively high % of 0-0 at halftime, Alcorcon have 11! You may want to back 0-0 pre match and cash out at halftime if lucky enough to see a 0-0 at halftime.
- Given the need for a win for both sides, lay any 2nd half 0-0/draw.
Fuenlabrada v Sporting Gijon - 1.92 Sporting Gijon
- 13th v 7th. Fuenlabrada's season is over. Not so for Gijon who have a real chance at a play-off place but simply must win their remaining 2 matches and hope any one of 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th struggle. We have seen ample evidence in Italy and the Premier League that these fights for the play-offs do take unexpected twists.
- Sporting Gijon matches recently have been very tight indeed. 2 1-0 losses, 2 0-0's, 2 1-0 wins (home) and a 1-0 loss.
- 3 consecutive defeats for Fuenlabrada.
- Angles? Sporting Gijon are keeping under 1.5 goals matches. Will that remain today? Certainly Fuenlabrada are layable if leading. 0-0 is in play given this Gijon pattern. If 0-0 at halftime, Back 0-1 Sporting 2nd half? Must win from now on.
Lugo v FC Cartagena - 1.66 Lugo
- 20th v 16th. 2 excellent recent results for Cartagena, including v top placed Espanyol sees job done. They will not be involved in the relegation zone.
- Lugo though are mired in relegation woes. 2 consecutive wins can help them, as long as other results go their way.
- A dead rubber for Cartagena so I won't research. The market has done this a lot hasn't it? Put up the inferior form sides as strong odds on favourite based on needs must. And they don't always get it right. Are you with the market?
- -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 CD Lugo home matches against bottom-half teams and they have drawn the first half in 7/11 such matches. Cartagena FC have conceded first in 4/5 away matches against bottom-six teams.
Sabadell v Ponferradina - 1.77 Sabadell
- 21st v 8th. Must wins for relegation-threatened Sabadell. Ponferradina's season is over. They cannot break into the play-off places. As above, this is another example of a poor side inserted as odds on favourite based on need and not form.
- 3 consecutive losses plays 3 losses in 4 matches. 11 consecutive home matches unbeaten for Sabadell ended last match. That was consistent form.
- 3 wins v the top 6 at home may give Sabadell a shout here, but do you trust bottom 2 odds on favourites?
- -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 6/8 CE Sabadell home matches against top-half teams and in 9/10 Ponferradina away matches against bottom-six teams. CE Sabadell have drawn the first half in 5/8 home matches against top-half teams.
CD Castellon v Rayo Vallecano - 2.14 Rayo
- 19th v 6th.
- This is a must win for both teams. One to avoid relegation, the other to retain a play-off place.
- 2 draws and 3 defeats for Castellon failing to score in 4 consecutive matches is not a good foundation for Castellon.
- Only 1 loss in 6 matches for Rayo Vallecano sees 2 consecutive wins.
- Rayo have not yet beaten a bottom 5 side away, draw and 3 defeats so this match, season long, is far from over. On recent form, Rayo must take advantage of Castellon's inability score recently and that is what I will pin my hopes on. If Castellon score first, they are unlikely to score a 2nd so note that.
Leganes v Malaga - 1.55 Leganes
- 4th v 15th.
- As with the other play-off teams, business not concluded for Leganes. The market expects 4th to continue winning against a side whose season is over.
- Malaga have failed to score in 4/5 matches, losing those 4.
- Leganes are unbeaten in 6 matches albeit 4 draws.
- I don't expect Leganes to lose.
- I include the game notes which may not be wholly effective as they are largely based on last season
14:00 - Odds BK v Sarpsborg - 1.92 Odds BK
- Only 1 match played. 2-2 for Odds, 0-0 for Sarpsborg.
- Match outcome: Odd Grenland have won 8/10 home matches against bottom-six teams while Sarpsborg have lost 6/11 away matches. Sarpsborg have conceded first in 9/15 away matches.
17:00 - Haugesund v Stabaek - 2.14 Haugesund
- 0-0 and 2-2 the scorelines for both teams in their sole match.
- 1st goal: FK Haug. have conceded first in 6/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while Stabaek have scored first in 8/10 away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 6/10 Stabaek away matches.
Brann v Bodo Glimt - 1.79 Bodo Glimt
- 4/4 defeats for Brann, conceding 3 goals minimum. Great trading match recently v Rosenborg saw a 1-2 turn into a 3-2 Rosenborg win.
- Bodo Glimt we know well. Goal at least before halftime, 2 goals minimum scored by them per match. That should remain our expectations going into this match. These 2 patterns are prolonged.
Kristiansund v Stromsgodset - 1.99 Kristiansund
- 2 losses and a win for Kristiansund. Only one match played by Stroms saw a 3-1 home win.
- +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 12/20 Kristiansund home matches and +2.5 goals in 10/12 Stromsgodset away matches against top-half teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 15/20 Kristiansund home matches.
Lillestrom v Viking - 2.58 Lillestrom
- Loss in Lillestrom's sole match. A win and 2 defeats for Viking, failing to score last 2.
- +2.5 goals: Promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 52% of home matches against bottom-half teams since 2015. There have been +2.5 goals in 9/11 Viking away matches. Viking have conceded first in 16/19 away matches.
Tromso v Sandefjord - 1.8 Tromso
- Loss, Draw, Win for Tromso in their 3 matches, loss for Sandefjord.
- +2.5 goals: Top-six promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 60% of home matches against bottom-six teams since 2015. There have been +2.5 goals in 7/12 Sandefjord away matches. Sandefjord have lost 8/14 away matches.
Mjondalen v Valerenga - 1.9 Valerenga
- Mjondalen won their sole match. Draw, Win, Loss for Valerenga.
- Match outcome: Mjondalen have lost 7/8 home matches against top-six teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 5/9 Valerenga away matches against top-six teams.
19:00 - Rosenborg v Molde - 2.4 Rosenborg
- Both sides are unbeaten, hence the 2.4 the favourite. 2 draws away for Rosenborg but a 5-0 and 3-2 home win, latterly coming from 1-2 down, sees Rosenborg confident at home.
- Win, Draw, Win for Molde, scoring 2-3-4 goals.
- I cannot split these likely top 3 sides.
IRISH PREMIER DIVISION
17:45 - Derry City v St Patricks - 2.4 St Patricks
- We're getting a good set of matches played now so time to start researching but I'll stick to my rule with this match, and the one below, to not research 2.4+ the favourite matches. Inevitably it becomes a waste of time as the conclusion is....I cannot split the teams!
Bohemians v Dundalk - 2.66 Bohemians
19:45 - Shamrock Rovers v Sligo Rovers - 1.66 Shamrock Rovers
Shamrock Rovers - 1st
- Only 1 loss came last match.
- Unbeaten at home. Draw latest ended a run of 4 consecutive home wins.
- Scored every match.
- 1-1 draw already this season.
- Scored and conceded all bar 1 at home.
Sligo Rovers - 2nd
- Not played the top 2 away but are unbeaten away from home.
- 2 draws and 3 wins last 5 matches.
- Only 1 loss came at home.
- 3 consecutive clean sheets.
- Failed to score only in that defeat.
- The 2 best teams early season so a surprise that the market has lurched so much in Shamrock's favour. They are unbeaten at home, yes, but Sligo are unbeaten away.
- Both teams could score today and dependent on the in-play stats, I would lay Sligo if they scored first.
Drogheda v Longford - 1.82 Drogheda
Drogheda - 4th
- 3 losses, 2 came away.
- 2 draws and 3 wins last 5 matches.
- Only 1 home loss came v 1st in the league.
- That was the only match they failed to score in.
- Conceded last 5 at home.
- 0-4 win last head to head.
- Scored less than 2 goals in all bar 1 at home.
Longford - 4th
- Only 1 win came 1st match.
- 4 losses and a draw last 5 away.
- Only 2 clean sheets came at home.
- Conceded 2+ goals in 4/5 matches.
- All defeats v the top 4.
- Longford's form is so poor that we have to automatically oppose them. They tend to lose v the top 4 consistently.
- Drogs do have a worryingly poor scoring record at home, unable to consistently find that 2nd goal so do check the in-play stats that the Drogs are in an attacking mood against weaker opposition.
Waterford v Finn Harps - 1.63 Finn Harps
Waterford - 10th
- All defeats bar an away win v 3rd bottom and home win v 2nd bottom.
- 2-1 loss last head to head.
- Not scored a 2nd goal at home.
- Failed to score in 7 of their last 8 matches.
Finn Harps - 5th
- Unbeaten home and away v 7th and lower.
- Only 1 win in 8 though but put that in the above context.
- Waterford look automatically opposable and if scoring first, are unlikely to follow up so that is a ready trading angle.