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A quiet day today. Everton and Newcastle will be dreaming of their summer hols as they are both safe(ish) from relegation.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

20:00 - Everton v Newcastle United - 2.34 Everton

  • 0-1 Everton in the last head to head.
  • Both sides should be safe from relegation (Newcastle not mathematically but they need some permutations weirder than the ones worn by King Kevin and Terry McDermott in order to go down).

Everton (9th)

  • A loss and 2 draws.
  • 3 wins at home ended with a loss v Man City and then a draw 0-0 with Liverpool.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home (47%).
  • Unbeaten at home v 8th and lower.
  • 19 of 26 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Newcastle (10th)

  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • Since 23rd December 2017 only Manchester City (twice) and Liverpool have beaten Newcastle.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away (31%).
  • Only 2 losses away v top 8.

Conclusions

  • Safety assured I would say here. Newcastle have been extremely tough to beat and on that very recent form in 2018, I would favour them today not to lose BUT will both teams be 'switched off' mentally?

ITALIAN SERIA A

19:45 - Genoa v Verona - 1.51 Genoa

  • 0-1 Genoa in the last head to head.

Genoa (12th)

  • Unbeaten in 4 ended with a loss v Roma.
  • A draw and 2 wins last 3 at home.
  • 9 points above relegation with a possible 15 max remaining. A win today should assure safety.
  • No 0-0 at home. 8 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 15th and lower scoring 2-1-1-1-1 goals so wins tend to be 1-0, draws 1-1.

Hellas Verona (19th)

  • I think the relegation battle goes as high as 14th placed so Verona are not down yet. A loss today or even a dropping of 2 points, would see one foot in the grave.
  • 7 away defeats in 8 saw Verona not even score.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 5 away.

Conclusions

  • High likelihood of 0-0 at halftime but not at fulltime. That's the first angle.
  • You don't score, you don't win. That's the case for Verona who did not follow up a coupon busting mauling of Fiorentina. In fact they had trouble scoring since then.
  • This has a hint of 1-0, 2-0, 1-1 here today. Must win really for both teams. Verona catching Genoa on a good very recent home run and should pay the price.

20:00 - Athletic Bilbao v Levante - 1.71 Athletic Bilbao

  • 1-2 Athletic Bilbao in the last head to head.

Athletic Bilbao (14th)

  • Only 1 loss in 11 matches came last match, a 2-3 v Deportivo.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home (44%).
  • Outside the top 2, only 1 loss at home.
  • 2-2-2-0-2 goals scored at home v 13th and lower.
  • 12 points above relegation with a possible 15 to play and a game in hand over relegation threatened sides.

Levante (17th)

  • Only 1 loss in 7 came away v Atl Madrid.
  • 3 of 4 recent wins did come at home.
  • 1-0-0-1-1-0 goals scored away recently does severely limit options.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away (50%).
  • Unbeaten home and away v 15th and lower albeit with 6 draws out of 6 v 15th-18th inclusive.

Conclusions

  • Levante are 6 points above the relegation zone so things are more urgent for them.
  • Both sides are putting together a good recent run.
  • A 0-0 at halftime would not surprise but I would expect that to end 2nd half. Do remember whenever I mention this, that there is an option to back 0-0 pre match at its highest point and then see how long it lasts and what profit you can make cashing out.
  • Strictly looking at the goalscoring form, Bilbao have scored 2-2-2-0-2 v 13th and lower at home, Levante? 1-0-0-1-1-0 recently away from home.
  • It does suggest a lay of Levante if Levante score first. CAVEAT - relegation six pointer for levante. We saw Estac Troyes in France dig their heels in but St Etienne eventually obliged.

20:00 - Porto v Setabul - 1.13 Porto

  • 0-5 Porto in the last head to head.
  • A win takes Porto top. Setabul do have relegation concerns.

Porto (2nd)

  • Only 2 losses this season came recently and they came away from home.
  • 8 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 5 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 100% wins at home outside the top team.
  • Led at halftime in 11/15.

Setabul (14th)

  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 matches.
  • 3 losses, a win and a draw away recently.
  • Kept Benfica to a 90th minute winner recently.
  • Conceded in their last 15 away.
  • All defeats v top 6 away.
  • 11 of 17 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Unlikely we will see any trading angles today. Porto are likely to score first, lead at halftime and score 3+ goals in a comfortable win.
  • Anything else....get stuck in.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.