Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

A typically tough Monday so unlikely to telegram. Christmas week too so I guess you'll have mince pies to eat and Raiders of the Lost Ark to watch.
On another day, with better timing, we'd have been sitting on a 50/1+ return yesterday, compounded by the 1.03 lay of Willem II in the halftime score market, so the member who chastised me for putting up these short priced lays does not know how close we were to making it all work. I will do a review/preview video of yesterday and please do watch it. It explains the thought processes between the plays and which were successful and how you could have cashed out in some (Leuven 0-2 to 1-2 for instance).


17:30 - Burnley v Wolves - 2.24 Wolves

  • Take the Man City loss away from Burnley recently, and, well, they are unbeaten. Conceding 0-0-1-0-0.
  • That is the form to note coming into this match. Burnley at home, during this sequence, saw a 1-0 and a 1-1.
  • 0-0 could be backable pre match if this defence is to the fore.
  • Wolves failed to score in 2 of their last 3 matches. That was sandwiched between 2 2-1 wins over Arsenal and Chelsea so they have a giant killing in them
  • Wolves have conceded in their last 6 matches which will give that Burnley plan hope. Keep it tight, score 1 goal again.
  • Notably, Wolves have 100% wins v 13th and lower and meet 18th today but remember that recent Burnley form?
  • Angles? Wolves have scored 4/5 goals away in the first half but I would back 0-0 pre match and look for Burnley to concede that solid defensive run, bar Man City.

20:00 - Chelsea v West Ham - 1.5 Chelsea

  • London Derbys are best watched via the in-play stats.
  • 2 consecutive defeats for Chelsea are 2 of only 3 defeats all season and both recent defeats came away from home.
  • Chelsea are unbeaten in 5 at home.
  • They have, intriguingly, not beaten a top 10 side, and meet...9th today. Chelsea are 8th themselves.
  • West Ham have had an excellent season but the key to Chelsea's success may lie in the teams which have beaten West Ham most recently - Arsenal, Liverpool (both away) and Man Utd. Basically the established top 5, of which Chelsea are one.
  • West Ham have failed to score in only one match and have scored in their last 6 away.
  • Angles? London derby means I am reticent about making a pre-match call. Eye-catching stats? Chelsea no win v the top 10!! West Ham scoring in all bar 1st match of season.


18:00 - Midtjylland v FC Nordsjaelland - 1.45 Midtjylland

  • Only 2 losses for the Danish Champions Midtjylland this season. 4 wins and a draw at home.
  • Midtjylland go top with a win. 4-1 defeat to Nord earlier this season is not expected to continue this match so says the market.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 at home make Midt a different proposition.
  • Despite eyecatching home wins v 1st and 2nd, FC Nord are winless away from home. They have conceded 2+ goals away v the top 6.
  • Angles? The market does not expect a repeat of the comprehensive Nord head to head win.
  • Angles? If Midt remain unbeaten at home and keeping clean sheets, and FC Nord continue to fail to win away, then the head to head will be avenged and this will go the way of the market and the Danish Champions Midt.


17:30 - AEK Athens v NFC Volos - 1.35 AEK Athens

  • Only 2 losses this season for AEK Athens.
  • They have failed to score only once.
  • AEK have scored and conceded in their last 5 at home so remember that if Volos score first today.
  • All wins for AEK have come v 6th and lower and they meet 7th today. Their sole home loss came v 5th.
  • 9/13 goals scored at home by AEK came 2nd half.
  • Volos have not won in 7 matches.
  • 5 draws in those 7 matches. They have conceded 3-4-1 goals away recently and that might come back to haunt them today.
  • Like AEK, Volos have scored and conceded in their last 5 away matches.
  • They have only lost to 1st in the league. 1-1 away v 5th and 6th is something to remember if Volos score first today. They have not beaten a top 8 side home or away and play 4th today.
  • Both sides have scored 75+% of their goals 2nd half this season.
  • Angles? The market is emphatic here. Both sides do score and concede so lay Volos if they score first given their 1-1 tendencies and heavy conceding away recently.
  • Watch out for 2nd half goals if a quiet first half.


17:45 - Jong PSV Eindhoven v Almere City - 1.68 Almere City

  • Only 1 win in 10 for Jong PSV.
  • Draw, Draw, Loss, Draw at home, the draws were 1-1.
  • Jong PSV have kept only 1 clean sheet.
  • Jong PSV have not beaten the top 9 this season.
  • 16th v 2nd here.
  • 6/8 goals scored by Jong PSV came 2nd half.
  • Only 1 loss for Almere City makes them worthy favourites.
  • They have scored 2+ goals on 13 occasions this season which is an excellent foundation.
  • Almere failed to score in only their first match of the season.
  • Almere have scored 2+ goals in each of their last 9 matches and in their last 5 away.
  • 2/3rd of Almere away goals were scored first half.
  • Angles? Almere should score themselves out of trouble tonight if conceding first. Score draw is best case for Jong PSV.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market given Almere's 1st half scoring patterns.

20:00 - Jong Ajax Amsterdam v SC Telstar - 2.16 Jong Ajax

  • 4 score draws in 5 winless matches for Jong Ajax. Only 1 loss in 6 home matches for Jong Ajax but 2 consecutive home 1-1 draws.
  • Jong Ajax have scored and conceded in their last 11 matches.
  • Jong Ajax have not beaten a top 9 side at home.
  • 2 losses, 2 wins, 2 losses for Telstar this season.
  • They have failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Telstar have conceded in their last 7 away matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away for Telstar saw none at fulltime.
  • 11th v 10th today. Telstar's 2 away defeats v 4th and 16th.
  • Angles? If Telstar concede it tends to come 2nd half. Remember that particularly with Jong Ajax's both teams to score pattern last 11 matches. Jong Ajax have not beaten a top 9 side. Will that extend to 10th today? If you think so, and you remember the both teams to score pattern, lay Jong Ajax if Jong Ajax score first.