Basel began the day very well and Barcelona ended it with a 90th minute Messi penalty to turn a 1-1 into a win! Other highlights? Aberdeen late win, Lyon coming from behind to win. It is a typical Monday today. Only really Newcastle and Arsenal matches stand out. I do note Breda tend to concede 2 goals so will keep an eye on that match as well.

16:00 - OB v Randers - 2.74 Randers

• Randers have won the last 2 head to heads in the Danish Superliga.
• I would not ordinarily research a match with a favourite at 2.74 odds in Denmark but, hey, it's Monday!

OB 100% stats

• Bottom of the league.
• No over 4.5 goals at home.
• No home match with exactly 2 goals.
• Opponents have been unable to equalise at home.

OB other stats

• Only 4 wins all season.
• Only 4 clean sheets.
• No draw in 8 home matches.
• 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
• 70% of home goals scored and conceded came 2nd half.

Randers 100% stats

• No 0-0.
• No over 4.5 goals matches.

Randers other stats

• 4 consecutive defeats - failed to score last 3 matches.
• Have beaten the bottom 2 this season.

Conclusions

• Strictly on form, Randers should be winning today against bottom side.
• Lay Odense if Odense score first.
• Fear not if 0-0 at halftime - I'd expect 2nd half goals.

19:00 - Jong PSV v Breda - 2.72 Jong PSV

• Another match I would not research normally. I do know the Dutch Eerste Divisie and on a quiet day this may be worth checking out.
• 1-1 the last time these 2 teams met.

Jong PSV other stats

• 3 consecutive wins.
• Only 1 0-0 at home.
• 8 wins and a defeat at home v teams 7th and lower - Breda are 8th.

Breda 100% stats

• No 0-0 away.
• Not beaten a top 9 team away (PSV are 5th).
• 100% over 1.5 goals away.

Breda other stats

• Failed to score in only 4 matches.
• Only 1 win in 4 matches.
• Scored in their last 9 and last 7 away.
• Conceded 2 goals at least in 8 of 9 matches away v top 15 teams.

Conclusions

• On form, it seems that Breda could concede 2 goals today which suggests laying them if they lead.
• Do note the market cannot split the 2 teams.

19:45 - Malaga v Las Palmas - 2.04 Malaga

• The home team remains unbeaten in the last 3 head to heads in the Spanish Primera Liga.

Malaga 100% stats

• No home 0-0.
• All defeats have come v teams above them in the league (Malaga are 14th, Las Palmas are 12th).

Malaga other stats

• No win in 9 matches.
• Conceded in their last 10 matches.
• Only kept 2 clean sheets.

Las Palmas 100% stats

• No 0-0 away.
• Not won to nil away.

Las Palmas other stats

• Only 4 clean sheets.
• No win in 9 away.
• Conceded in their last 10 away matches.
• Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
• Single away win v 15th was a 2-4.

Conclusions

• A typical match for a Monday. 2 poor sides meet in a tough to call match.
• Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but can we trust 2 poor form teams?
• Both teams have conceded in their last 10. Both teams have no win in 9 matches.
• I will leave this match alone.

19:55 - Sutton Utd v Arsenal - 1.14 Arsenal

• Barcelona were 1.12 odds and won 2-1 yesterday. PAOK were 1.11 odds and scored 3+ goals. So the expectation from a 1.14 shot is similar.
• Arsenal should be scoring 3/4 goals minimum.
• Sutton are 17th in the National League. Can they 'do a Lincoln?' It was noticeable that champions league teams Barcelona (90th min penalty win) and PSG (0-0) struggled. Surely not Arsenal?

20:00 - Newcastle v Aston Villa - 1.61 Newcastle

Newcastle 100% stats

• Go top with a win.
• No 0-0.
• Unbeaten home and away v 9th-17th in the league (Villa are 17th).

Aston Villa 100% stats

• All 1-1 draws v top 3 to date.
• No over 4.5 goals matches.

Aston Villa other stats

• 6 losses and a 2-2 last 7 matches.
• 6 losses in 7 away matches.
• Conceded in their last 9 matches.
• 7 0-0's at halftime away.

Conclusions

• A good chance for Newcastle to get a result while Villa are having troubles away. I would lay Villa if Villa scored first.
• At their best, Newcastle should score 2/3 goals.