Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

A superb live chat webinar yesterday. There will not be a live chat webinar next Sunday. Apologies. My niece is 21 and I must take advantage of being 'stuck' in the Northern Hemisphere and able to celebrate with her. I will do a quick DRT review/preview video at DRT Facebook.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 - FC Koln v Leipzig - 1.54 Leipzig

FC Koln - 11th

  • Loss, Draw, Draw, Loss last 4 matches, conceding at least 2 goals in these matches.
  • Koln still look solid. Hoff beat them care of a red card for Koln. Prior to that, they lost to Dortmund, Bayern, and Mgladbach.
  • Scored in their last 14 and last 11 at home.
  • 11 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 3 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Beat 4th and 6th at home. 4-1 loss v Leipzig earlier this season.
  • 13 of 20 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Leipzig - 5th

  • 4 draws and a win last 5 matches.
  • 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • No defeat in 9 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away clean sheets.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Only 3 losses all season.

Conclusions

  • Koln are still solid despite that red card loss to the Hoff. But the teams they have lost to are top 5 and they play 5th today. I would expect Koln to fall flat again. They may score but have been conceding 2 goals of late.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

DANISH SUPERLIGA

13:00 - Randers v Hobro - 1.65 Randers

Randers - 7th

  • 1 loss last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home (25%).
  • 13 of 22 goals scored at home came 1st half.
  • Only 2 losses at home came v the top 2.
  • 2-2 last head to head.
  • 2+ goals scored in all bar 1 match at home v 3rd and lower.

Hobro - 12th

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 5 draws and 2 losses last 7 matches.
  • 3 draws and a loss last 4 away matches.
  • 3 consecutive 0-0's at halftime.
  • No win in 15 and in 10 away.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Only away win v bottom side.

Conclusions

  • Hobro tend not to win away. Simple angle.

15:00 - Midtjylland v AC Horsens - 1.23 Midtjylland

Midtjylland - 1st

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • 12 wins and a loss last 13 matches.
  • 4 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 5 wins last 6 at home.
  • Scored last 13 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (42%).
  • No 0-0 at fulltime at home.
  • 8 of 9 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • 0-2 win v Horsens earlier this season.

Horsens - 10th

  • 3 losses ended with a win v Copenhagen.
  • In the last 10 away matches, failed to score that 2nd goal.
  • Beat 2nd and 5th away but lost to the other top 9 sides away.

Conclusions

  • If Midt are to lose, it is likely to be a 0-1. So lay the Horse if they score first but cover the 0-1.
  • The concern I have here is one of motivation for Midt. Apparently 2 matches remain and they cannot be caught at the top of the league.

17:00 - Lyngby v FC Copenhagen - 1.69 Copenhagen

  • This has the look of a dead rubber about it. Copenhagen cannot catch Midtjylland.

Lyngby - 8th

  • 3 of Lyngby's last 4 losses came away.
  • 4 wins in 5 at home.
  • No defeat in 5 at home.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • No 0-0 this season.
  • 12 of 18 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Lost to nil 3/3 times v the top 2.

Copenhagen - 2nd

  • Questionable motivation.
  • Only 3 losses in 12 matches. 2 of those losses were 1-0.
  • Loss, Win, Loss, Draw away scoring 1-1-0-1 goals.
  • Conceded in their last 5 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 11 of 16 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Be cautious - possible dead rubber. On form, Lyngby have 3/3 losses v the top 2 without scoring.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:00 - AGF v OB - 2.06 AGF

AGF - 4th

  • Only 1 loss in 10 matches came bottom side Silkeborg, who look like the bogey team.
  • No win in 3 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home draws.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No defeat in 5 at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 2 of 3 home losses came v the top 2.

OB - 9th

  • No win in 9 matches.
  • 3 consecutive draws, 2 1-1's.
  • 4 losses and 2 draws last 6 away.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away (33% of matches).
  • 8 goals conceded last 15 mins of away matches.
  • Only 3 wins away v 1st, 13th and 14th, 2 of those were 0-1.

Conclusions

  • AGF should not lose on form today. If OB score first, lay them but cover the 0-1 as OB have won 0-1 away twice.
  • Again, questionable motivation clouds this match. Mid-table mediocrity for both of these sides.
  • Watch out, on form, for possible late consolation for OB (post 75th minute).

BELARUSSIAN PREMIER LEAGUE

16:00 - FC Minsk v Slutsk - 2.66 Slutsk

FC Minsk - 14th

  • No clean sheets.
  • Win, Loss, Loss at home.
  • 2 of 3 wins came away.
  • 3 of 4 defeats this season came v the current top 3.

Slutsk - 5th

  • 2 losses and a draw last 3 matches.
  • Win, Win, Win, Loss away. Lost to BATE Borisov.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 matches.
  • 2 of 3 defeats came v the top 2.

Conclusions

  • The market cannot split these 2. 2 of their 3 defeats have come v current top 3 side.
  • Neither side has kept a clean sheet.
  • In-play stats for me.

FAROE PREMIER LEAGUE

15:00 - Vikingur Gota v TB Tvoroyri - 1.3 Vikingur

  • 8 consecutive Gota wins in head to heads.
  • Only 1 loss for Gota came last match. Draw and 2 wins prior to that.
  • TB have 100% defeats 3-2-3-2 goals conceded.

15:00 - B36 Torshavn v HB Torshavn - 2.18 B36

  • 1-3, 2-1, 2-2 last 3 head to heads at B36.
  • Derby match. I know. We have all had sleepless nights counting down to this clash of the Torshavn Titans.
  • Both sides have 100% wins this season. 3 clean sheets in 4 matches for HB.

17:00 - Skala v NSI Runavik - 1.17 NSI Runavik

  • 2 consecutive NSI wins in head to heads.
  • 3 losses and a draw so far this season for Skala.
  • 3 wins and a loss v Viking for NSI.

19:00 - AB Argir v Klaksvikar Itrottarfelag - 1.12 Klaksvikar

  • Klak tend to win head to heads.
  • Draw, Loss, Loss, Draw this season for AB. They failed to score in 3/4 matches.
  • Loss and 3 wins in a row for Klaksvikar who have scored 2-4-3 goals.

CZECH 2 LIGA

18:00 - FC Zbrojovka Brno v Dukla Prague - 1.87 FC Brno

FC Brno - 2nd

  • 8 wins in 9 matches.
  • 7 consecutive home wins.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • Scored in their last 9 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Lost 2-1 to Dukla Prague earlier this season.

Dukla Prague - 5th

  • Draw, Loss, Loss, Win last 4 matches.
  • Loss, Draw, Loss away.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 matches.
  • Scored in their last 14 matches.
  • 4 losses and a win away v the top 10.

Conclusions

  • Please be cautious when dipping into these 2nd tier leagues in countries whose top tier football is a little Arthur Daley-esque.
  • Dukla did win the last head to head, that must be noted but FC Brno look far more accomplished at home. 7 consecutive wins, unbeaten at home. That could see them free and clear given Dukla have noticeably lost 4 matches v the top 10 away.

LITHUANIAN A LYGA

16:00 - FK Suduva v FK Spyris Kaunas - 2.34 FK Suduva

  • 5 consecutive Suduva wins in head to heads.
  • Only 1 match into the season. 1-0 home win v Banga for Suduva. 0-3 win for Kaunas v Riteriai this season.
  • Little to work with.

SERBIA FIRST LEAGUE

17:00 - Kolubara Lazarevac v Metalac Gornji Milanovac - 1.58 Kolubara

  • Draw and 2 Metalac wins in head to heads.

Kolubara - 6th

  • Only 1 loss in 12 matches.
  • Only 2 home losses.
  • 2-1 loss to Metalac earlier this season.
  • Beat 1st and 4th at home.
  • Conceded 2 goals only once at home.

Metalac - 2nd

  • 4 wins and 2 draws last 6 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away wins.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Scored last 9 away.
  • 100% defeats away v the top 8.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 away match v the top 14.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, favour Kolubara given Metalac's 100% defeat record v the top 8.