Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

DRT Daily Research Bulletin, June 1, 2015

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches

Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised

Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are not the pre-market favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds).

Lay the underdog scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market, especially in BANKER matches.

Do note matches where one team is red carded. The opponents do tend to score next more often than not.

12:35pm - Beijing Guoan v Shanghai Shenxin  - 1.3 home

Standout Stats

  • Both teams have scored in the last 5 head to heads. 4 of those scorelines were 2-1, 3 to Beijing.
  • This is 4th v 16th in The China Super League after 11 matches.
  • Only 1 loss this season for Beijing.3 wins in their last 4 matches.
  • They have only lost 1 match at home in the league since October 2012
  • 2-2-3-2 scored in their last 4 home matches.
  • Only 1 win in 11 for Shanghai. That win came away last match.
  • Only 1 win in 7 for Shanghai away.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Limited stats here but Beijing are one of a handful of sides who shine at home and that is the angle in today, rather like Dinamo Zagreb. Just lay Shanghai should they lead in the match or coming to the end of the match. Beijing could score 2 goals at least.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1:30pm - Thailand U23 v East Timor U23

Standout Stats

  • This is the Southeast Asian games and the markets are illiquid as I write.
  • I am suspecting that Thailand U23 will be the overwhelming favourites.
  • 1-3 and 3-0 for Thailand in recent head to heads should be the angle for today.
  • 0-6 start for Thailand v Laos put down a great marker.
  • No results yet for East Timor U23 in this year's Southeast Asian games.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Expectation for a repeat of the 2 recent head to heads. 3 goals at least for Thailand u23.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6pm - Brann v Follo   - 1.53 home

Standout Stats

  • No recent head to heads.
  • This is 9th v 4th in the Norwegian 1st Division after 10 matches.

Brann

  • No win in 4 sees 3 draws and a loss.
  • Win Win, Draw , Draw at home.

Follo

  • Scored in all matches this season
  • 2 consecutive 2-2 scorelines. Did have a 3-1 and a 3-2 loss recently too so liable to conceding at least 2 goals.
  • Those were the only losses this season.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • No recent head to heads to work with. Follo could concede today so that is an angle in, particularly if they score first.
  • 3 matches recently had a 2-2 scoreline. If you think that'll continue back 2-2 pre match at a decent enough price and hope for fireworks.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6pm - Karlsruhe v Hamburg  - 2.28 home

Standout Stats

  • This is the 2nd leg of the play-offs in Germany. Hamburg salvaged a 1-1 draw with a very late equaliser in the first leg so it's all to play for.
  • If away goals are important, then Karlsruhe merely need a 0-0 here to go through in the easiest way possible.
  • If Hamburg score first, it is advantage them

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Tough to predict but instinct does say side with the Bundesliga strugglers Hamburg who have played a better class of team all season.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6:05pm - IFK Goteborg v Djurgardens  - 1.7 home

Standout Stats

  • 2-1 Djurgardens, 0-0 and 2-1 Goteborg in the last 3 head to heads.
  • This is 1st v 4th in the Swedish Allsvenskan after 10 matches. Both sides having a good start to the season.

IFK Goteborg

  • 8 wins a draw and a loss this season.
  • 6 wins and a draw in their last 7 matches.
  • 4 wins and a 1-0 loss at home
  • Only loss this season came at home to Malmo , a potential top 3 side.

Djurgarden

  • 3 match winning streak away
  • Scored in their last 10 and conceded in their last 5.
  • 3-5-3-3-2 scored in their last 5 matches
  • 2-3 win, 2-3 win, 2-2 draw in the last 3 matches.
  • Scored in all matches this season
  • All of the impressive results have come v current 12th and lower.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I think Djurgarden could score but not necessarily win today. They are player a better side and their results are against current bottom 1/2 sides although this is weak form as there are only 1o matches played.
  • I would certainly lay Djurgarden at 0-1 up and even 0-2 up given the recent 2-3, 2-3, 2-2 results. It suggests they'll concede.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tennis

11:30am - Andy Murray v Jeremy Chardy 1.11 Ruby. The Scot (BRitish when he wins) v Le Plucky Froggy . Kei Nishikori was similarly priced yesterday and he won in 3 straight sets.

3rd v 45th in the World.  Chardy dropped a set in his first 2 French Open Rounds. Andy dropped a set v Sousa who was a form clay player coming into this tournament. Andy's tournament has been punctuated mostly with 6-3 6-4 sets.  Chardy's easy beating of Isner is eyecatching , but we have to wonder whether the BFG Isner is waining. Normally his serve is impervious. If true form, then Chardy may nick a set today.  I backed 4.9 for 3-1 Murray v Sousa and that worked out. Chardy you feel could nick a set, better a first set so we can lay the pants off 3-0 Chardy and in the match odds market.

11:30am - Marin Cilic v David Ferrer  - 1.36 Ferrer. Cilic has form in Grand Slams, winning the US Open so the Terrier Ferrer may have to dig his teeth in today.

8th v 10th in the world surprises. I suppose Cilic's rise is down to winning a Grand Slam. He does not "feel" like a top 10 player to me. 3 for Ferrer 3-0 sets may be a tad high but I think it has legs today surely . It would take an almighty feat for him to win 3-0. Cilic has yet to drop a set . Ferrer was in a 2-2 battle with Bolelli before Bolelli retired. It opens this match up for Ferrer not winning 3-0 as I say. I wonder if we will have legs backing Cilic 3-2 at 9.8, and Ferrer 3-2 at 6.6 ? These 2 bets are alive whoever wins the first set, and 2nd set. 4-1 to Ferrer in head to heads though. The head to heads go back to 2010 so are irrelevant.

1pm - Sara Errani v Julia Goerges  - 1.57 Sara.

17th v 72nd in the rankings  -Goerges impressed with her 2-0 win over Wozniacki. It was not down to Woz dreaming of Rory's beautiful face or other distractions. It was earned.Errani is liable to dropping sets. She dropped a set 1st and 2nd round. I cannot see a 2-0 Errani here. 1.57 is far too short to back. Lay it now, or hope Errani breaks first or wins the first set so we can lay at a shorter price. 2.66 to lay Errani 2-0 set betting. 4-3 in head to heads for Goerges backs up the idea that both players should win a set.

1pm - Serena Williams v Sloane Stephens  - 1.2 Serena. He-Man beat the Screamer to set up this match against Sloane Stephens .Serena has been weightlifting with Rambo and the Terminator in order to limber up for this match. She has even shaved her stubble off. She's that serious.

1.55 for 2-0 sets to a faltering Serena? No thanks. She has dropped the first set in her last 2 matches so that's the angle in today.  3 consecutive 2-0 wins for Stephens includes Serena's brother Venus. If Serena loses the first set, he seems to get galvanised and win the next 2 in rather comfortable fashion. 1st v 40th in the world. Angle in? Look for Serena to lose the first set, then lay Sloane 2-0 set betting or back Serena higher odds in the match odds market.

1:30pm - Jack Sock v Rafa Nadal - 1.08 Rafa

The Sock dream to come to a grinding halt? Well, as I said earlier, 1.13 Nishikori won 3-0. 1.08 Rafa is expected to follow suit.1.65 3-0 sets is in due deference to the Sock. No head to heads is interesting as Sock could take a short while for Rafa to "suss out". Sock beat Dimitrov but to be honest Dimitrov was there in body but little else. It was an easy assignment. Beating Coric 3-0 really catches the eye. This is a solid youngster. 3-0 all the way for Rafa so far and the highest scoring set has been a 6-4.  Sock's battling qualities were shown against Carreno Busta with 3 tiebreakers in that match, 2 won by Sock. He's be a pain in Rafa's neck today, that's for sure, and I am not sure of an angle in. No late in a Grand Slam, suggests we lay Rafa at 1.09 and hope for a glimmer from Sock.

2:30pm - Novak Djokovic v Richard Gasquet  - 1.03 Novak. Another of Le Plucky Frenchies plays overwhelming fav Novak. Now, Novak had a groin niggle a match or so before so laying him at 1.04 is the value call here incase said niggle manifests early today. As I keep repeating, you must lay these shorties in first to 3 setters. It just makes logical sense.

11-1 to Novak in head to heads suggests short shrift from said lay today. Novak has had 5 6-4 set wins in the last 6 sets. He has a plan, and that's to break you once and win the set. 3-2 , 3-1 for Gasquet against other than World Number 1, suggests the French Dream ends today.He dropped the first set in his last 2 matches, then went on to win the next 2 sets. I am not sure if he can do that here, but an angle in is to lay Novak if he wins the first set at short odds.

3:30pm - Petra Kvitova v Timea Bacsinszky  - 1.64 Petra. 4th v 24th in the world. 0-1 to Timea in head to heads.

Kvitova has dropped 2 sets so far so is vulnerable. Timea is yet to drop a set. Another where I would lay the first set winner in the 2-0 market in the hope of a 3 setter so late into the Tournament.