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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, January 1, 2018

No live chat on a day sponsored no doubt by Andrews' Liver Salts. There are a lot of matches with favourites at odds of 2.4+ which automatically tells you those matches are puzzlers. I do fancy Liverpool against a Burnley unable to score 2 goals in 9/10 home matches.
Liverpool have scored 3+ in each of their last 5 away. As they did the other day, I would be confident in a Liverpool recovery were they to fall behind. Leicester have a 100% win record v 6th-12th inclusive and play 11th today. Win? Take on any Huddersfield lead?
In the Championship, the market is tentative towards Leeds but on form Leeds look good against a Forest side with 5/5 losses v top 5 teams. 3 consecutive draws for Man Utd. Lay any late draw? Leaking points. Everton have not beaten a top 8 side so strictly on form United should not lose. Add into the mix a change in team personnel and we may see vulnerabilities (Pep Gladioli had to shuffle the pack yesterday and he lost some momentum). My nephews are round today so no live chat. Have a Great start to 2018.

12:30 - Brighton v Bournemouth - 2.5 Brighton

Brighton (12th)

  • Failed to score in 7 of their last 9 matches.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 at home.
  • Only 1 win in 10 matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten at home outside of their top 4.
  • Not scored that 2nd goal in 8 of 10 matches at home.
  • 8 of 10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Bournemouth (14th)

  • No win in 4 away.
  • Failed to score in 3 of 4 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in their last 8 matches.
  • Conceded in each of their last 8 matches.
  • 2 away wins came v 15th and 16th.all defeats v top 9 away.

Conclusions

  • Brighton have failed to score in 7 of their last 9 matches. Bournemouth have failed to score in 3 of 4 away matches.
  • Despite Bournemouth not having a 0-0 at halftime in 8 matches, I would back 0-0 pre match and hope the problem scoring continues.
  • As the odds suggest, it's tough to call.

15:00 - Burnley v Liverpool - 1.53 Liverpool

  • 2-1 Liverpool and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Burnley (7th)

  • 3 draws in 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • In 9 of 10 home matches, Burnley failed to score 2 goals.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Lost at home to 5th and 6th and play 4th today.

Liverpool (4th)

  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 4-3-5-4-3 goals scored in their last 5 away matches.
  • No defeat in 12 matches.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 7th and lower.v the top 10 away, Liverpool have conceded 5-3-4-2-3 goals.
  • 11 goals scored away between 15th-30th minutes.

Conclusions

  • These latter Xmas/New Year matches have been very tight affairs - think Man Utd and Arsenal recently. Will Liverpool's match really be a tight Xmas affair, or are they going to go goal crazy v the top 10?
  • 5-3-4-2-3 goals conceded v top 10 and 4-3-5-4-3 goals scored recently away by Liverpool.
  • If Burnley continue to score just 1 goal at home, then obviously Liverpool will be favoured today. I will be with Liverpool today.
  • Halftime score is inconclusive. Burnley 5 0-0's at halftime at home v Liverpool's ZERO away.

15:00 - Leicester v Huddersfield - 1.68 Leicester

Leicester (8th)

  • 3 defeats and a 2-2 in their last 4 matches.
  • In 5 of their last 6 matches, Leicester conceded at least 2 goals.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 13 matches.
  • No 00 at home.
  • All defeats bar 2 came v top 5 teams.
  • A nice set of 4 wins at home v 6th-12th inclusive.

Huddersfield (11th)

  • A win and 3 draws in the last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 9 away matches.
  • Conceded in their last 7 away matches.
  • 15 of 20 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • If Leicester continue their strong performances v 6th-12th inclusive at home, they will be eyeing the win today v a Huddersfield with only 1 win in 9 away matches.
  • Huddersfield have scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches so if scoring first today I would lay Huddersfield.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. If Huddersfield keep it tight first half, watch out. They concede horrendously 2nd half.

15:00 - Stoke v Newcastle - 2.36 Stoke

Stoke (15th)

  • Only 3 wins in 14 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 9 at home and last 11 overall.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Scored and conceded in 9/10 matches v 11th and lower home and away.

Newcastle (16th)

  • Only 1 win in 12 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 8 away matches.
  • No away 0-0.
  • All wins this season have come v 15th and lower. Beat Stoke 2-1 at home.

Conclusions

  • A chance both teams could score today so lay the late 0-0 and any 0-0 if it gets to the 2nd half.
  • Newcastle should be eyeing a positive result today as their wins are exclusively v 15th and lower.
  • I would back 2-1 /1-2 here. If both teams score this could work as a trade.

17:30 - Everton v Man Utd - 1.83 Man Utd

  • New manager for Everton.

Everton (9th)

  • 7 games in for Big Sam and he suffered his first loss away at Bournemouth 2-1 Interestingly the market called it right, inserting Bournemouth as the favourites for that match. Note the favourites for this match....
  • 4 wins and a draw now in their last 5 at home.
  • A 0-0 v Chelsea is perhaps a template for today's match. But will Man Utd really have a 2nd consecutive 0-0.
  • 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • No win home or away v top 8.
  • 12 of 17 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Man Utd (3rd)

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • 3 consecutive draws.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 4 matches away.
  • Failed to score only 3 times.

Conclusions

  • Everton's 0-0 v Chelsea I would suggest is the best they can hope for today unless Rooney wreaks revenge.
  • Everton have not won v top 8 .I would lay Everton if Everton lead.
  • Lay any late draw and take a chance on Man Utd avoiding a 4th consecutive draw.

15:00 - Leeds v Nottm Forest - 2.02 Leeds

  • Leeds won the 2 2017 matches 2-0.

Leeds (5th)

  • Only 1 loss in 7 matches came last match.
  • 3 wins in 4 at home . Last 2 home wins were 1-0.
  • 6 1-0 scorelines at halftime at home.
  • 3 losses at home v 2nd, 6th and 17th.
  • 6 clean sheets in 7 matches at home v 12th and lower.
  • 7 of 9 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • 12 of 17 goals scored at home came first half.

Nottm Forest (14th)

  • Only 1 draw.
  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
  • Conceded in their last 8 away matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • 5/5 losses v top 5 this season.

Conclusions

  • On form Leeds should be looking to at least not lose today. Forest tend to lose to top 5.
  • Leeds tend towards clean sheets. They also tend to score 2nd half so note that if 0-0 or if they happen to be 0-1 down at halftime.

15:00 - Sheff Wed v Burton - 1.7 Sheff Wed

  • 2 1-1 draws in 2017 between these 2.

Sheff Wed (16th)

  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 9 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Score draws at home v 18th -21st.
  • Scored and conceded at home in all matches v 6th and lower.

Burton (23rd)

  • 7 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Wins away v 15th, 17th and 22nd. 0-1, 2-1, 0-1.
  • 11 of 16 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • This could be 0-0 at halftime but not at fulltime.
  • You know,  I would actually lay Sheff Wed if they lead 1-0 late on. So many score draws at home v 18th and lower.

15:00 - Derby v Sheff Utd - 2.28 Derby

  • 3-1 Sheff Utd in the last head to head.

Derby (2nd)

  • Only 2 losses in 18 matches.
  • 7 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • 7 wins in 9 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Not met 3rd-6th at home yet.
  • Scored first in 8/12 at home.

Sheff Utd (6th)

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 8 away matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Beat 1st and 2nd at home, but away....?
  • Only 1 win away v top 15th.
  • 11 of 16 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • On very recent form, Derby have the momentum, but Sheff Utd have the win in head to heads.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • I would lay Sheff Utd if they scored first.

15:00 - QPR v Cardiff - 2.62 Cardiff

  • 2-1 QPR and 2-1 Cardiff in the last 2 head to heads.

QPR (18th)

  • 4 clean sheets only.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 home matches.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 home match v 15th and higher.
  • 11 of 17 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Cardiff City (4th)

  • 3 consecutive losses.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • No draw v 18th and lower.
  • Wins away v 20th, 21st and 23rd. Losses v 22nd and 24th away.
  • 9 of 13 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I think both teams could score today. Do note the match odds - 2.62 - the market cannot split these 2 teams despite their league positions.
  • Note the 2nd half goalscoring habit for both sides so take on any halftime 0-0.
  • Lay any late draw.

15:00 - Bolton v Hull - 2.64 Hull

  • 4-0 Hull win in the last head to heads.

Bolton (22nd)

  • 4 defeats and 3 draws in their last 7 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 loss at home v teams 13th and lower.

Hull (19th)

  • Only 1 win in 12 matches.
  • Unbeaten v teams below them in the league but only 1 match played away.

Conclusions

  • Another match the market cannot split. Too tough to call. Bolton only 1 loss v 13th and lower, Hull unbeaten v teams below them in the league but.....only 1 match played v teams below them in the league.

15:00 - Preston v Middlesbrough - 2.52 Preston

  • We see with the other Championship matches where the market cannot split the teams, that the matches are hard to call. Will this be another?
  • 0-0 in the last head to head.

Preston (8th)

  • Unbeaten in 9 matches.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • 6 consecutive 0-0's at halftime.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 home loss v teams below them in the league.
  • Only 2 losses home and away v teams below them in the league were v......10th at home and 11th away.

Middlesbrough (9th)

  • No draw in 13 matches.
  • 3 losses in 4 away matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 away matches.
  • Not beaten a top 15 team away.
  • Not scored a 2nd goal away v top 15 teams.
  • 12 of 17 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Slight favour towards a Preston side with momentum. Remember Boro have not beaten a top 15 team away and not scored that 2nd goal. So lay Boro if Boro scores first.
  • If 0-0 at halftime, lay that 0-0 2nd half.

15:00 - Norwich v Millwall - 2.22 Norwich

  • 4-0 Millwall in an earlier head to head this year.

Norwich (13th)

  • Only 2 wins in 12 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 home matches.
  • 3 wins at home came v 16th, 18th and 24th.
  • 9 of 12 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Millwall (15th)

  • No win in 12 away matches.
  • Failed to score away v top 14 teams, 4 1-0 losses, 4 0-0 draws and a 3-0 loss v 2nd.

Conclusions

  • If Millwall do not score, they do not win. Millwall do play a Norwich with 2 wins in 12 matches.
  • If Norwich score they should win.

15:00 - Sunderland v Barnsley - 2.26 Sunderland

  • 3-0 Barnsley in the last head to head.

Sunderland (21st)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Scored in their last 8 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Not led at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 win at home v 12th.
  • 4 score draws and a 1-3 loss v 15th and lower at home.
  • Opponents have scored first in 10/12 at home.

Barnsley (20th)

  • No win in 10 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 9 matches.
  • 3 wins and a loss v teams below them in the league.
  • 14 of 20 goals conceded away came in the first half.

Conclusions

  • I would lay Sunderland if Sunderland scored first. They tend towards score draws at best v 15th and lower and look at Barnsley's record v teams below them in the league. 3 wins in 4.

17:30 - Aston Villa v Bristol City - 2.22 Aston Villa

  • 2-0 Aston Villa and 1-1 last 2 head to heads.

Aston Villa (7th)

  • Only 1 home loss.
  • 2 consecutive home draws.
  • Not played top 5 at home.

Bristol City (3rd)

  • Only 4 defeats, 3 came at home.
  • No defeat in 11 away.
  • 3-3 away v 1st and 1-2 win away v 6th.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match home and away v top 11 teams.
  • 8 goals scored away last 15 minutes.

Conclusions

  • Very interesting match. Only 1 home loss plays only 1 away loss. Too tight for me to call.