Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I was very happy with Sunday's live chat webinar in particular. A nice 1.03 lay into the bargain too. Today I have researched the likes of the Dutch Eerste Divisie.
Do remember though that the lower down the leagues we go, the less reliable they become. These leagues though are great for in-play stats trading.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

20:00 - Arsenal v Newcastle - 1.41 Arsenal

Arsenal (5th)

  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 9 consecutive home wins.
  • No defeat in 15 at home.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 7 at home.
  • 100% wins at home v 8th and lower.
  • 1-2 win v Newcastle earlier this season.
  • 12 goals scored at home last 15 minutes of matches.

Newcastle (14th)

  • 3 losses since 12th January came away from home.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • No win in 7 away.
  • Conceded in their last 7 away matches.
  • 100% defeats away v the top 6.
  • Scored in 6 of 8 matches away v the top 10 without winning.
  • 8 goals conceded last 15 minutes away.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, Arsenal should be eyeing the win today. Newcastle have been scoring 2+ goals in recent matches but tend to do their winning at home.
  • Note Newcastle score v top 10 away but do not win.
  • Note the last 15 minutes of matches.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

20:30 - St Etienne v Nimes - 1.81 St Etienne

St Etienne (5th)

  • Only 3 wins in 9 matches.
  • 3 losses last 4 at home.
  • No draw in 7 and in 9 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 5 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 4th and lower.
  • 2+ goals scored at home in 7 of 8 matches v 10th and lower.

Nimes (12th)

  • 4 losses in 5 matches away.
  • No draw in 10 away.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 5 away matches.
  • 100% defeats away v top 9 without scoring.

Conclusions

  • If Nimes cannot even score v top 9 away and have a 100% loss record, I expect a St Etienne win today. 2+ goals expected.
  • Lay any late draw.

SPANISH SEGUNDA DIVISION

20:00 - Zaragoza v Gimnastic - 1.86 Zaragoza

Zaragoza (17th)

  • 4 defeats last 5 matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 19th and lower.
  • v 12th and lower at home, only 1 loss.

Gimnastic (21st)

  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • 10 losses in 11 away matches.
  • Conceded last 7 away.
  • Only 1 away win v 19th.
  • In 12/14 matches away v 18th and higher they failed to score.

Conclusions

  • Limited stats but if Gimnastic are having trouble even scoring away, lay them if they score first.

GREEK SUPER LEAGUE

17:00 - Apollon Smirmis v Panathanaikos - 1.42 Panathanaikos

Apollon Smirmis (16th)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 4 losses and a 0-0 last 5 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • No win in 5 at home.
  • Not played 5th-8th at home.
  • Have not scored that 2nd goal in any home match.

Panathanaikos (8th)

  • Only 3 wins in 11 matches were all 1-0 only.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 away matches.
  • 9 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away (62%).
  • Have not beaten a side 11th and lower away. 0-0 v 15th.
  • Only 1 away match with 2+ goals scored.

Conclusions

  • Oh dear. These 2 are having trouble scoring that 2nd goal. Back 0-0 pre match and hope that this goal scarcity continues?
  • I have seen better 1.42 shots.
  • If Apollon Smirmis do score first they are unlikely to score a 2nd. I would take out insurance on the 1-0 and back Panathanaikos in the +1 goal market.

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

19:00 - Almere City v Helmond Sport - 1.45 Almere City

Almere City (7th)

  • Only 2 losses in 9 matches saw 6 wins.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches at home.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Scored in their last 5 at home.
  • Only 1 home loss v 12th and lower.
  • 5/5 wins v 18th and lower.

Helmond (19th)

  • Only 1 win in 12 matches came last match.
  • 5 consecutive away defeats.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No win in 15 away, conceding in their last 14 away.
  • 2+ goals scored in defeats v 8th-13th away.
  • 17 goals conceded last 15 mins first half and 1st 15 mins 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The market looks right here. If form is upheld, expect 2+ goals from Almere today in what should be a win.

19:00 - Den Bosch v Jong PSV Eindhoven - 2.02 Den Bosch

Den Bosch (5th)

  • Only 1 win in 10 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 4 home matches.
  • 3 consecutive defeats, conceding 5-4-1 goals.
  • Scored in their last 15 at home.
  • Not played 2nd-4th at home but beat 1st and 6th.
  • 0-1 win v Jong PSV earlier in the season.

Jong PSV (4th)

  • Only 2 losses in 14 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Did not beat a top 8 side away.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 v 17th and higher.

Conclusions

  • A top 5 clash so this could be 'best on the day'.
  • I would lay Jong PSV if they scored first. Strong both teams to score pattern and note Den Bosch have scored in their last 15 at home.

19:00 - FC Eindhoven v FC Oss - 2.06 FC Eindhoven

FC Eindhoven (13th)

  • 2 wins and 2 draws last 4 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home (47%).
  • Only 1 win at home v the top 10.
  • 2-0 loss v Eindhoven earlier this season.
  • 14 of 19 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Top OSS (6th)

  • Only 2 losses in 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 7 away matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away (47%).
  • Only 1 loss away v 9th and lower.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, with Oss losing only 1 away match v 9th and lower, they may be competitive but they have failed to score in 4 of their last 7 away matches.
  • Not a match to prioritise for me. Only 1 win at home v top 10 for Eindhoven does not appeal.
  • On said seasonal form, we would normally be with Top Oss not to lose.

19:00 - FC Volendam v FC Dordrecht - 1.99 FC Volendam

FC Volendam (15th)

  • Only 1 win in 9 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 0-1 home defeats.
  • 8 1-0 leads at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v teams below them in the league. 1-2-1-1-1-2-2 goals scored without defeat.
  • 13 of 17 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

FC Dordrecht (17th)

  • Only 6 wins.
  • 11 goals conceded last 2 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 10 matches.
  • Only 1 away win v teams above them in the league.
  • 15 of 19 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • 2 strugglers so be wary. FC Volendam are unbeaten v teams below them in the league. Dordrecht have only 1 away win v teams above them in the league. Enough to expect FC Volendam not to lose.
  • Strong 2nd half scoring stats if 0-0 at halftime.

19:00 - Go Ahead Eagles v SC Telstar - 1.44 Go Ahead Eagles

Go Ahead Eagles (3rd)

  • Only 2 losses in 9 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored in their last 8 matches.
  • Only 3 losses at home, 2 v the top 6.
  • 4/4 wins at home v 15th and lower. 3 clean sheets.
  • 10 goals scored at home last 15 minutes.

Telstar (16th)

  • 4 wins and a draw last 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in all 7 matches home and away v the top 5.
  • All defeats bar 1 away v the top 12.

Conclusions

  • Telstar's sole win v the top 12 was a 3-4 away.
  • I think they are still layable if scoring first here. A solid win record for Go Ahead eagles v 15th and lower.

19:00 - Jong Ajax Amsterdam v Cambuur Leeuwarden - 1.56 Jong Ajax

Jong Ajax Amsterdam (8th)

  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home draws.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 11 of their last 12 matches and in their last 6 home matches.
  • 2-1 loss to Cambuur earlier this season.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 11th and higher.

Cambuur (12th)

  • 3 wins in the last 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive away wins.
  • Lost to 2nd and 3rd away, but beat 4th and 6th away. Lost to 7th away and beat 9th and 10th away.
  • 14 of 17 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Not too clear the form from Cambuur who can beat 4th and 6th but lose to 7th, then beat 9th and 10th away.
  • Note the both teams to score pattern for Jong Ajax.

19:00 - Jong AZ Alkmaar v NEC Nijmegen - 2.22 NEC

Jong AZ (18th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Unbeaten in 4 at home with 3 consecutive draws.
  • Only 2 home wins came v 3rd and 12th.

NEC (14th)

  • 2 consecutive defeats were the only defeats since 18th January 2019.
  • No win in 10 away matches.
  • Conceded in their last 10 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 15th and lower.
  • 2+ goals scored in all bar 1 away match v 11th and lower.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, NEC could score 2 goals today and not lose. Only 2 home wins for Jong AZ suggests struggles.

19:00 - RKC Waalwijk v FC Twente - 1.88 FC Twente

RKC (9th)

  • 2 wins in their last 3 matches, the only wins in 7 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 7 and last 8 at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home (12%).
  • 100% defeats v the top 4 home and away.

Twente (1st)

  • 14 wins and a draw last 15 matches.
  • 9 wins and a draw last 10 away matches.
  • 10 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • Scored in their last 17 matches and last 16 away.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime away (19%).
  • 9 wins and 3 draws away v 6th and lower.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, Twente should be eyeing the win here. Simple angle.
  • They are in solid scoring form so keep the faith regarding a Twente goal at some point.
  • Possibility to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:00 - Roda JC v Jong FC Utrecht - 1.43 Roda JC

Roda JC (11th)

  • Only 1 win in 9 matches.
  • Scored in their last 12 at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 2+ goals scored at home v 14th and lower.
  • 4 wins and a 2-2 at home v 15th and lower.

Jong Utrecht (20th)

  • 12 losses and a draw last 13 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 4-4-3-3 goals conceded away last 4 matches.
  • Conceded last 14 matches.
  • 2+ goals conceded in all bar 2 aways.

Conclusions

  • Unlikely we will see a trade as Roda JC tend to score first and are likely to score 2+ goals and win.
  • Simple enough angle.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market if you want based on an expectation for goals.

19:00 - Sparta Rotterdam v MVV Maastricht - 1.41 Sparta

Sparta Rotterdam (2nd)

  • 6 wins and a draw last 7 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • Only loss at home came v 1st.
  • 2+ goals scored in all bar 3  home matches.

MVV (10th)

  • 3 draws in 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in their last 6 away matches.
  • Conceded in their last 8 matches and last 5 away.
  • 4 losses and a win v top 4. Did beat 1st 0-1 away.
  • 13 of 17 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Despite MVV beating 1st in the league away, they do tend to lose v the top 3.
  • If Sparta continue to score 2+ goals at home, that should be enough.